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Thread: The South China Sea. A bilge rat thread.

  1. #36
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    Default Re: The South China Sea. A bilge rat thread.

    Quote Originally Posted by Andrew Craig-Bennett View Post
    The Chinese assertion of sovereignty over the sea conflicts totally with the European doctrine of mare liberum as first set out by Hugo Grotius in the 17th century and as now embodied in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mare_Liberum

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...Law_of_the_Sea

    I think we must support the Philippines’ position.

    But then I would say that, wouldn’t I?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippines_v._China
    China having Security Council membership status in the UN should bind them to the UN Convention, should it not.

  2. #37
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    Default Re: The South China Sea. A bilge rat thread.

    Like it does the US?

  3. #38
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    Default Re: The South China Sea. A bilge rat thread.

    Both China and the USA signed the Treaty “with reservations”.

    I really do think that China’s problem is that it has backed itself into a corner. No Chinese government can “give away” a claim made by Zhou Enlai.
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  4. #39
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    Default Re: The South China Sea. A bilge rat thread.

    Kiribas and Tuvalu are both nations that should be in receipt of generous help from either New Zealand or Australia or the USA or the UK but anyway someone needs to get on with it!
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  5. #40
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    Default Re: The South China Sea. A bilge rat thread.

    I should have mentioned that these places are in the “Second Island Chain”.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_Chain_Strategy
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  6. #41
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    Default Re: The South China Sea. A bilge rat thread.

    And it effectively isolates Guam.

  7. #42
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    Default Re: The South China Sea. A bilge rat thread.

    I hear islands are slow moving targets.

  8. #43
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    Default Re: The South China Sea. A bilge rat thread.

    Or slowly sinking targets ...

    Tuvalu: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuvalu
    Will

  9. #44
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    Default Re: The South China Sea. A bilge rat thread.

    Immediate economic advantage comes from China leveraging farther islands ala Portugal's expansion https://bloomsburygeographer.com/202...tic-expansion/ . And Pinoys have been complaining to their government about China's fishing craft in Philippines territory. Also there are claims that the boats are manned by China's naval militia. https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/04/19...itime-militia/ And there may be short term strategic survival reasons for China's expansion in fishing. Our right wing fringe points to significant movement of the Three Gorges dam over the last 2 years and has recently claimed that the live stream video from the dam has been looped i.e. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d_XjualG6hk and that there are no current public pics. Already, the shortages in crops from diversion of flood waters last year to save the dam has stressed much of Asia's food supply. If this year is the same or worse, things will be desperate.
    Last edited by Landrith; 05-11-2021 at 01:07 PM.
    "Deconstruction is not a method, and cannot be transformed into one" Jacques Derrida (1930–2004)

  10. #45
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    Default Re: The South China Sea. A bilge rat thread.

    I don’t think there is much doubt about the “naval militia”. They don’t seem to do much fishing.
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  11. #46
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    Default Re: The South China Sea. A bilge rat thread.

    But why are they there? Logistically it must not be easy to keep a huge number of small boats in what is essentially the open sea for months on end. Do they eventually go home? If so, what was accomplished?

  12. #47
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    Default Re: The South China Sea. A bilge rat thread.

    George. I think the “Foreign Policy” article that Landrith links to in his post no.45 above gives a good explanation:

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/04/19...itime-militia/
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  13. #48
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    Default Re: The South China Sea. A bilge rat thread.

    This is an interesting thread!

    I am a little more pessimistic. I think Mainland China cannot tolerate a Taiwan as a separate country when it once belonged to them. I think they also function from a self protective standpoint and see control of the SCS as essential even if logistically challenging and and financially questionable. The possibility of a hot war between China and various SCS countries including the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia is very great as is the possibility that China would attempt to overrun Taiwan and reclaim it. I am very concerned about a war and the potential for the USA and other world powers to get sucked into it.

  14. #49
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    Default Re: The South China Sea. A bilge rat thread.

    I think China will inevitably try to take Taiwan. Perhaps as soon as they think the relation of forces favors them.

    The US
    may try to intervene, and that's where we may all be toast.


  15. #50
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    Default Re: The South China Sea. A bilge rat thread.

    These things are not so simple.

    Taiwan is separated from mainland China by a hundred miles of pretty rough water. Taiwan is the biggest investor in China.

    A blockade of Taiwan is more feasible than an invasion.
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  16. #51
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    Default Re: The South China Sea. A bilge rat thread.

    But a blockade would mean an indefinite standoff with the US Navy, and no fait accompli.



  17. #52
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    Default Re: The South China Sea. A bilge rat thread.

    Quote Originally Posted by Andrew Craig-Bennett View Post
    These things are not so simple.

    Taiwan is separated from mainland China by a hundred miles of pretty rough water. Taiwan is the biggest investor in China.

    A blockade of Taiwan is more feasible than an invasion.
    China would need to strike fast and hard. If they could do it before others provide assistance it would just be an issue that the UN will talk about without accomplishing anything. Once other states (the US) provide support it would come down to a blockade which poses its own risks of war.

  18. #53
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    Default Re: The South China Sea. A bilge rat thread.

    Taiwan is a mountainous island with a population of 23.6 million and an army of 170,000. I don’t think it could be a “fait accompli”.
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  19. #54
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    Default Re: The South China Sea. A bilge rat thread.

    China may need the gold this year.

    A popular rumor among the US Rightwing fringe is that Taiwan has the portion of the national gold reserves that Chiang Kai-shek took with him to Taiwan https://www.mining.com/web/how-one-m...k-chinas-gold/ and elsewhere normally estimated as between three million to five million taels (approximately 113.6-115.2 tons; one tael is 37.2 grams) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retrea...hina_to_Taiwan. Whereas many of the sources the Bilge always ridicules me for have it that China has misrepresented its reserves, but more mainstream sources have reported at least 4% was fraudulently overstated according to Zero Hedge in an FT article https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...w/76707339.cms and is outstripping its own mining production https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-02-0...ld-report.html

    Since the USA no longer has the absolute right of Freedom of Speech, I want to make sure to say that I do not know how much gold China has or doesn't. And I wouldn't want Chairman Xi to cancel the Kansas City Chief's NFL season because of this post.
    "Deconstruction is not a method, and cannot be transformed into one" Jacques Derrida (1930–2004)

  20. #55
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    Default Re: The South China Sea. A bilge rat thread.

    Quote Originally Posted by Andrew Craig-Bennett View Post
    Taiwan is a mountainous island with a population of 23.6 million and an army of 170,000. I don’t think it could be a “fait accompli”.
    I am sure the Taiwanese could hold out for a long time in the mountains if resupplied. But don't you think China could quickly occupy the plains and cities, and therefore the straits coast and ports? I can't see a Taiwanese resistance dislodging them.

    What I worry about is that Taiwan seems doable to China as long as they can keep the US from intervening. They might decide that it requires taking out the satellites that are the eyes of the US Navy and Air Force.

  21. #56
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    Default Re: The South China Sea. A bilge rat thread.

    according to Zero Hedge in an FT article https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...
    Not according to Rudy Giuliani in a WSJ article https://rt.fakenews.com...

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