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Thread: Novel Coronavirus

  1. #2486
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Two weeks since Denmark.opened schools, at what point will their subsequent wave of covid-19 hit?

    Here is a link to their data (y'all would call thus an op-ed)

    https://www.worldometers.info/corona...untry/denmark/

  2. #2487
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by Phil Y View Post
    I guess because we have such low numbers in SA we think it's safe to open schools right up. Our shutdown has been much more relaxed than other states. Groups of up to 10 OK. Beaches open. No real restrictions on going out and about. I guess we've been lucky.

    Sent from my CPH1851 using Tapatalk
    I think so. I think our whole country has been lucky, really. Lucky we didn't all go to the footy

    Rick

  3. #2488
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Actually, compared to most of the other states, NSW has been fairly relaxed too. No groups of 10 but we could always go boating, swimming etc. They only closed a few beaches when they got crowded. Given the hit that NSW had from the cruise ship, it's pretty amazing that we're down to just a few active cases now. And lucky.

    Rick

  4. #2489
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Your dishonesty know no bounds. I would guess that in 3 or 4vweeks on thus thread I have posted less than 1/2 a dozen oped pieces,.
    So you admit that my "dishonest" statement is actually true:

    Quote Originally Posted by WI-Tom View Post
    You've posted a number of Op-Ed pieces
    Meanwhile, there's this:

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    You guys are part of the "keep things locked down forever" crowd.


    Did I miss the post where you corrected this blatantly false claim?

    Tom


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  5. #2490
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Nothing blatantly dishonest about it. You initially opposed even planning on easing rrstrictiond, then when you saw that everyone was doing planning, you listed the requirements, which was a complete about face, requirements that will not be met for the foreseeable future. Since then you have adamantly opposed any suggestion it evidence that restrictions can be eased anywhere. I think my description of your position is valid. To you, the lockdown should be kept for the indefinite future.

    Before you respond, look up the definition of indefinite, it will save us a couple if posts back and forth. If you still say it is wrong, please give me a definite time when restrictions can be relaxed.

    And I do agree, you do have not called me stupid, not have I claimed you did. Just illogical, and IIRC, you responded positively to Phil Y's reference to my stupidity. So that implication if yours lacked honesty also.

  6. #2491
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by ERGR View Post
    George,
    According to BBC News, the Swiss authorities don't advice grand parents against hugging their grand children any longer. They consider the risk for spreading the disease very small, and the value of family ties outweighs the risks. This is of course a question of values; not everyone see it that way.

    Unfortunately I've not been able to go to the root and find the data that's behind the attitude from the Swiss authorities.
    Well, in Brazil, "authorities" advise that it is no worse than the flu, and that chloroquine will cure it. All that means is that authorities can be covidiots.

    Question of values, indeed. I wonder what it does to children to lose grandma and then realize that it was their fault.


    There's ample data showing that young children are unlikely to be hospitalized from COVID-19, and death is even more unlikely.
    And that has nothing to do with whether they can spread the disease. We *know* that asymptomatic people can and do spread it. Last time I checked, children were people.

    There is no reason to suspect that people below a certain age magically don't spread the virus, even though they catch it. The burden of proof here is squarely on those who claim that there is.

  7. #2492
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    be modest, and be proud of it.

  8. #2493
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    peb,

    I don't quite understand why the discussion between us has a tendency to become so aggressive, but clearly I'm doing something you react strongly to. That's not my intention. I am quite sincere in my desire for a truce--one which allows for disagreement without hostility. But as to this:

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    IIRC, you responded positively to Phil Y's reference to my stupidity.
    You DON'T recall correctly. That post (#2279) where Phil mentioned "continuing stupidity" was April 27. I posted no response to it at all, and in fact made no posts to this thread until April 29, two days later--at which point his comment was pages in the past.

    So to some degree I think you are reacting to my posts based on erroneous beliefs about what I have and haven't said here. I really haven't been as hostile toward you as you seem to think. You've raised an important question for discussion: at what point do we ease restrictions? How do we balance damage from COVID-19 with the economic damage of shutdowns?

    Now, on to the "disagreement" part of our truce:

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    To you, the lockdown should be kept for the indefinite future.

    Before you respond, look up the definition of indefinite, it will save us a couple if posts back and forth. If you still say it is wrong, please give me a definite time when restrictions can be relaxed.
    peb,

    "indefinite" means no specific date can be given. Every single expert on infectious diseases I'm aware of thinks the only acceptable timeline for re-opening HAS to be "indefinite":

    Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, is warning against attempts to place concrete time limits on the coronavirus pandemic, telling CNN’s Chris Cuomo “the virus makes the timeline.”
    SOURCE

    Notice: Dr. Fauci is WARNING against people saying the kinds of things you say, and demanding the kinds of things you are demanding on this thread. Why? Because it's dangerous. It will pressure governments and institutions to re-open before it's safe to do so, putting tens of thousands of life at stake. That has been the consistent basis of my posts here from the beginning. It still is.

    Several times I've posted the steps Johns Hopkins recommends achieving before beginning to ease restrictions--among them are a 14-day decline in new cases, and establishing the capacity of widespread testing and contact tracing. Again, notice how the expert consensus favors an "indefinite" timeline--one linked to conditions rather than to a calendar date.

    That is very different from the way you have repeatedly--and falsely--characterized the positions of anyone who questions you on this thread:

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    You guys are part of the "keep things locked down forever" crowd.
    So for the timeline question, sure, put me down in the "indefinite" camp--I'm comfortable holding a position that matches virtually every credible expert's advice on when and how to re-open.

    But do take the trouble to understand that "indefinite" is not synonymous with "forever."

    Tom
    Last edited by WI-Tom; 05-03-2020 at 08:32 AM.
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  9. #2494
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    .
    Not a single U.S. state has met the federal government's guideline for reopening: a 14-day decline in Covid-19 cases.

    Not one.

    Texas hit a third straight day of more than 1,000 new coronavirus cases Saturday as the state charged into its first weekend of re-opening the economy with residents allowed to go back to malls, restaurants, movie theaters and retail stores in limited numbers.

    State health officials reported 1,293 new cases, the second-highest single-day infection rate, marking the first time the Texas has recorded more than 1,000 three days in a row.

    https://komonews.com/news/coronaviru...d-straight-day
    I've seen attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. I watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhäuser Gate.

  10. #2495
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Montgomery View Post
    .
    Not a single U.S. state has met the federal government's guideline for reopening: a 14-day decline in Covid-19 cases.

    Not one.
    Yes, that 14-day decline is another of the Johns Hopkins recommendations.

    I'm still not aware of any coherent national response plan to increase capacity for tests and contact tracing. At this point it may come down to agreements between neighboring states, as we've seen governors do in the NE and the upper Midwest.

    Tom
    You don't have to be prepared as long as you're willing to suffer the consequences.

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  11. #2496
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by WI-Tom View Post
    Yes, that 14-day decline is another of the Johns Hopkins recommendations.

    I'm still not aware of any coherent national response plan to increase capacity for tests and contact tracing. At this point it may come down to agreements between neighboring states, as we've seen governors do in the NE and the upper Midwest.

    Tom
    There isn’t a coherent nationwide response to anything, pretty much every state has done things in a different manner and so the people like arguing against “lockdowns” are arguing against a chimera. And instead of substantively arguing they just sloganeer.

  12. #2497
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by Hugh Conway View Post
    There isn’t a coherent nationwide response to anything...
    And that will cost us dearly.

    Tom
    You don't have to be prepared as long as you're willing to suffer the consequences.

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  13. #2498
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Our area has 'relaxed' restrictions as well - and was never as locked-down as many. And we have not had a tremendous number of ill/dead - but this change comes just as we're seeing an uptick in cases. We're a 'red' state; I'll be watching how this develops, closely. I can understand the 'urgency' of reopening for business - we're incredibly slow at our clinic. What's the trade-off worth?
    There's a lot of things they didn't tell me when I signed on with this outfit....

  14. #2499
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Montgomery View Post
    .
    Not a single U.S. state has met the federal government's guideline for reopening: a 14-day decline in Covid-19 cases.

    Not one.
    Sure seems like culling the herd is a default policy when opening up “the lockdown” is done for political reasons and not the medical guideline enumerated above.

  15. #2500
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by WI-Tom View Post
    Yes, that 14-day decline is another of the Johns Hopkins recommendations.

    I'm still not aware of any coherent national response plan to increase capacity for tests and contact tracing. At this point it may come down to agreements between neighboring states, as we've seen governors do in the NE and the upper Midwest.

    Tom
    Your awareness is really beside the point

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/f.....&country=USA

  16. #2501
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Your awareness is really beside the point

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/f.....&country=USA
    The chart you linked shows a recent high of 305,000 tests per day on May 1. That's good--some progress has been made in the past 2 weeks, when testing levels were half that.

    That still doesn't provide any evidence to suggest that the increased testing has been due to any coherent nationwide response. Meanwhile, that's not even 10% of the testing some think might be needed:

    One of the lower-end benchmarks estimates the US will need 750,000 tests per week. The high-end proposal, from Nobel laureate economist Paul Romer, starts at 22 million tests per day and goes up. And not just one test per person, but repeated testing over time.
    SOURCE

    So after examining the evidence on hand, I stand by my earlier statement:

    Quote Originally Posted by WI-Tom View Post
    I'm still not aware of any coherent national response plan to increase capacity for tests and contact tracing.
    Tom
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  17. #2502
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Tom, it's a moving target. The panic porn crowd 3 weeks ago said 300-400 thousand. Then they went to 1/2 million. Last week I read one million. Now you show me a figure I had not seen before, 22 million. You can't take these folks seriously. I did read one Harvard professor say that to be safe we need everyone tested every day.

  18. #2503
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    peb, you’re really sounding Limbaugh like with pet names like “panic porn crowd”

  19. #2504
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Meanwhile South Korea peaked at 15 thousand per day

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/f.....&country=KOR

    And they have remained open without the dreaded second wave occurring. Based on population, that us 1/3 of where we are now.

  20. #2505
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    A moving target, true--just like everything about the situation. But a state-by-state breakdown is a little more revealing of how the U.S. is doing on testing than a nationwide average:

    The more worrisome gap involves states that, despite having thousands of Covid-19 cases, are easing mitigation strategies by, for instance, allowing more businesses and public spaces such as beaches to reopen. To catch hot spots before they turn into wildfires of disease, Georgia must do 9,600 to 10,000 tests per day; it has been averaging around 4,000. Florida will need 16,000; in the last week it has been hitting just above 10,000. South Carolina is a rare bright spot: It will need 1,200 to 1,600 tests per day and has been averaging close to the low end of that, with at least 1,500 tests on several recent days.

    In the last week, the U.S. as a whole conducted 1.6 million tests, according to the Covid Tracking Project. The Harvard team says twice that many tests will be needed — at minimum.
    SOURCE

    And that's just one of the things needed for a safe re-opening. There's also that pesky 14-day decline in new cases which not a single state has met as far as I know.

    Tom
    You don't have to be prepared as long as you're willing to suffer the consequences.

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  21. #2506
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by LeeG View Post
    peb, you’re really sounding Limbaugh like with pet names like “panic porn crowd”
    Drives you guys crazy, I know. It didn't come from Limbaugh, quite the opposite

  22. #2507
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Italy is doing 70k tests per day. That is more than us adjusted for population by 25%. Nevertheless, Tom would want Italy doing almost 4 million per day before they relaxed any restrictions at all. Come on guys, you are approaching absurdity.

  23. #2508
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Two weeks since Denmark.opened schools, at what point will their subsequent wave of covid-19 hit?

    Here is a link to their data (y'all would call thus an op-ed)

    https://www.worldometers.info/corona...untry/denmark/
    Incubation is 2 weeks. If it’s going to spike it may happen in a couple of ways. First kids may get sick, but they are disproportionately asymptomatic. Two weeks after that the adults may become sick. So you might imagine an increase in deaths 4-6 weeks after they opened. So, maybe mid-May to mid-June.

    Have you ever been to Denmark? I have, as well as to Sweden and Finland, all for business. It is a remarkably civil and respectful place. In Denmark the kids are six feet apart and follow the rules. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/17/w...ronavirus.html. In the U.S. we will act like morons - look at the beaches in Florida and California, and the protests in various places.

  24. #2509
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Drives you guys crazy, I know. It didn't come from Limbaugh, quite the opposite
    If all you want to do is create a pi55ing match you will end up on lots of ignore lists - and with really good reason.
    I'd much rather lay in my bunk all freakin day lookin at Youtube videos .

  25. #2510
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Italy is doing 70k tests per day. That is more than us adjusted for population by 25%. Nevertheless, Tom would want Italy doing almost 4 million per day before they relaxed any restrictions at all. Come on guys, you are approaching absurdity.
    Fair enough. What do you see as the right number of tests per capita per day? How many for people who are symptomatic, or at high risk like health care workers? Then, how many left over for the population as a whole? And, how would you adjust that number depending on whether people are working in crowded places with poor observance of masking and hand hygiene, compared to places where people’s behavior is largely compliant? Finally, what would you do about contact tracing and isolation, and about returning to stay at home orders if there’s a outbreak? What are the triggers and threshold points?

  26. #2511
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Drives you guys crazy, I know. It didn't come from Limbaugh, quite the opposite
    No, it lowers the quality of your expression. Wherever it came from it’s counterproductive.

  27. #2512
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by LeeG View Post
    peb, you’re really sounding Limbaugh like with pet names like “panic porn crowd”
    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Your awareness is really beside the point

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/f.....&country=USA
    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Drives you guys crazy, I know. It didn't come from Limbaugh, quite the opposite

    So.... why do you do it? Do you perceive the rest of us as 'the enemy'? I'd really like to know.
    There's a lot of things they didn't tell me when I signed on with this outfit....

  28. #2513
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Tom, it's a moving target. The panic porn crowd 3 weeks ago said 300-400 thousand. Then they went to 1/2 million. Last week I read one million. Now you show me a figure I had not seen before, 22 million. You can't take these folks seriously. I did read one Harvard professor say that to be safe we need everyone tested every day.
    Again, you are full of sh!t. I said well over a million if you do nothing, back when you were doing nothing. After some of you got wise and the curve flattened a bit, I said around 350,000, and I still do.

  29. #2514
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by George. View Post
    Again, you are full of sh!t. I said well over a million if you do nothing, back when you were doing nothing. After some of you got wise and the curve flattened a bit, I said around 350,000, and I still do.
    George,

    to be fair, I think you are talking about the number of likely deaths here, while I think peb's post (a response to mine) is talking about the recommended number of tests that need to be performed.

    Tom
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  30. #2515
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Ross View Post
    Fair enough. What do you see as the right number of tests per capita per day? How many for people who are symptomatic, or at high risk like health care workers? Then, how many left over for the population as a whole? And, how would you adjust that number depending on whether people are working in crowded places with poor observance of masking and hand hygiene, compared to places where people’s behavior is largely compliant? Finally, what would you do about contact tracing and isolation, and about returning to stay at home orders if there’s a outbreak? What are the triggers and threshold points?
    Tests sites are largely idle in most parts if the country, the labs all have been reporting spare capacity for the last two weeks. Indeed, the tests performed per day have pdoubked in the last 19 days likely because states started opening up and employees are going to get tested. If we all stay locked up in our homes, tests performed will go down simply as the number if cases go down. That likely will happen anyways. antibiody testing is going up very fast. Quest says they are up to a capacity if 150K per day. Testing is not a barrier IMO.

    I stated what I would do on tracing a while back. Make the data available to everyone. Let them know where the hotspots are. Do it on as fine a level as possible.
    You guys scream for that, but refuse to make the data public. When I suggested it, everyone shouted me down. Can't trust the public with that information.
    Contact tracing of individuals who test positive is harder. Copy what others do: family and coworkers.

  31. #2516
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by George. View Post
    Again, you are full of sh!t. I said well over a million if you do nothing, back when you were doing nothing. After some of you got wise and the curve flattened a bit, I said around 350,000, and I still do.
    Try to catch up. Those numbers are not related to the deaths at all. Those are tests per day needed to relax restrictions.

  32. #2517
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by P.I. Stazzer-Newt View Post
    If all you want to do is create a pi55ing match you will end up on lots of ignore lists - and with really good reason.
    Yes, you get offended at the term panic porn and I get called "full of sh$t", and I am looking for the pi$$ing contest???

  33. #2518
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Take your personal spats elsewhere, it's not about you.

    Meanwhile a random test of 500 in Kabul found 30% infected withthe virus. Very little testing there,I don't know about the medical situation.
    The human world will look quite different I think this time next year I think..

  34. #2519
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    This is a summary of Australia's CV 19 experience at this point. I don't like the format but anyone interested in seeing how things have panned out so far here, might be interested in this. We've done some dumb things and some smart things but mostly, I think, we've been lucky, so far. Anyway, for those interested: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-.../12197884?nw=0

    Rick

  35. #2520
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Jump of 22 in Victoria. 19 of them from an infected meatworks and subsequent contacts.

    Meanwhile in Brazil, 100,000 cases, and it's devastating the Amazon area. I reckon Balsenaro and his ilk will be quite pleased about that.

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