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Thread: Novel Coronavirus

  1. #1751
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Another damfool 'leader' who thought he knew better than the experts --

    Virginia Bishop Who Defied State Social Distancing Warnings Dies Of COVID-19

    Gerald O. Glenn, founder and pastor of New Deliverance Evangelical Church, had vowed to continue preaching “unless I’m in jail or the hospital.”

    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/virgi...b6cc788eae79bc
    David G
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    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

  2. #1752
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by twodot View Post
    Nice link - from which we get an estimate of the earliest possible date for a vaccine of Early 2021.

    Anyone who has ever played with infection simulation software - will have noticed that if the disease transmits to more people than just one per infected victim - then eventually almost everybody gets it - that Almost - is typically of the order of 97%.

    New York State with a 15% infection rate - and presumably 85% still to go - has lost about 10,000 people.

    Anyone up for a guess at how many will die nationwide by the first of Jan 2021?
    I'd much rather lay in my bunk all freakin day lookin at Youtube videos .

  3. #1753
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by ERGR View Post
    There have been tests for infection of randomly selected persons in the Stockholm region (>2.5% infected), and there's an ongoing similar test on a national level. There's also testing of every woman who's admitted to hospital for child bearing (7% positive in the Stockholm region)
    The spread between those two percentages alone is enough evidence that the sampling is grossly insufficient.

  4. #1754
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    From an economist perspective:

    By Paul Krugman
    Opinion Columnist
    Trying to predict Trump administration actions really is like Kremlinology, updated for the age of social media. There’s clearly no formal policy process; Donald Trump acts on impulse and intuition, often shaped either by whoever he last met or what he last saw on Fox News, making no use of the vast expertise he could call on if he were willing to listen. Those of us on the outside, and from all accounts, even many people within the administration try to infer what’s coming next from tweets and statements by people presumed to be in favor at the moment.


    So what does Trumplinology suggest right now? That Trump really, really wants to end the economy’s lockdown very soon. Early Monday Trump tweeted out an assertion that he has the power to overrule state governors who have imposed lockdown orders — which suggests that we may have a constitutional crisis brewing, because as far as anybody knows he has no such power. Meanwhile, in an interview with The New York Times, Peter Navarro, Trump’s trade czar, argued that a weak economy might kill more people than the virus.


    The thing is, as far as I can tell epidemiologists are united in the belief that it’s far too soon to be considering any relaxation of social distancing. The lockdowns across America do seem to have flattened the curve, allowing us to avoid — just — completely overwhelming the health care system. New cases may have peaked. But you don’t want to let up until you’re in a position to do so without giving the pandemic a second wave. And we’re nowhere close to that point.








    So where’s this coming from? I’ve seen some people portray it as a conflict between epidemiologists and economists, but that’s all wrong. Serious economists know what they don’t know — they recognize and respect experts from other disciplines. A survey of economists found almost unanimous support for “tolerating a very large contraction in economic activity until the spread of infections has dropped significantly.”


    No, this push to reopen is coming not from economists but from cranks and cronies. That is, it’s coming on one side from people who may describe themselves as economists but whom the professionals consider cranks — people like Navarro or Stephen Moore, who Trump tried unsuccessfully to appoint to the Federal Reserve Board. And on the other, it’s coming from business types with close ties to Trump who suffer from billionaire’s disease — the tendency to assume that just because you’re rich you’re also smarter than anyone else, even in areas like epidemiology (or, dare I say it, macroeconomics) that require a great deal of technical expertise.


    And Trump, of course, who was planning to run on the strength of the economy, desperately wants to wish the coronavirus away.


    The reality is that we shouldn’t consider opening the economy until we have both reduced infections dramatically and vastly increased testing, so we can crack down quickly on any potential re-emergence.








    The good news is that many governors seem to understand that, and that Trump probably can’t override their better judgment. The bad news is that America’s governors — who are turning out, on the whole, to be better than we deserve — are having to fight a two-front war. Not only are they having to fight a deadly disease, they’re having to fend off a national leader who is doing all he can to sabotage their efforts.
    There's a lot of things they didn't tell me when I signed on with this outfit....

  5. #1755
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    I am not believing what I wish was true. If that was the case, I would be advocating for everything going back to normal tomorrow.
    I'm glad to hear you confirm you're not advocating that. Yet arguments like yours will sound that way to many, and will increase pressure on government to do so.

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    I have not disputed this [the idea that your UW model shows the effectiveness of social distancing restrictions] one time. Not once.
    I'm also glad to hear you agree with me on that. I think it's the only sensible interpretation at this point. But other comments you've posted, like this:

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    I am advocating establishing a plan for opening back up society
    suggest that you think the UW's model will hold true even if social distancing is relaxed in some areas, when the model is explicitly based on assumptions that it WON'T be. If you start to re-open things, you WILL see the models--all of them--showing new spikes in infection rates, deaths, and resources needed. Meanwhile, you've just acknowledged that social distancing is working--yet you want to end it. How is the "open economy" approach working for South Dakota?

    You don't seem like you've accepted that yet.

    Yes, the economic issues are very real, and will hurt many of us; all of us, I'm sure, before it's over.

    The right way to handle that is to provide immediate aid to those at the bottom, perhaps with a UBI or means-tested system of payments. Let those with bigger pockets cover the inevitable economic losses the system will have to bear.

    Meanwhile, work toward testing, tracing, and vaccines, and keep revising models as more data comes in. At some point the economic costs will outweight the benefits of the shutdown. We're not nearly there yet, though.

    Tom
    Last edited by WI-Tom; 04-14-2020 at 12:40 PM.
    You don't have to be prepared as long as you're willing to suffer the consequences.

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  6. #1756
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by WI-Tom View Post



    If you start to re-open things, you WILL see the models--all of them--showing new spikes in infection rates, deaths, and resources needed. Meanwhile, you've just acknowledged that social distancing is working--yet you want to end it. How is the "open economy" approach working for South Dakota?

    You don't seem like you've accepted that yet.

    Tom, this cannot be shown through any logical throught process. I walked you through it on my last post. Simply because picked a date in the future date to assume social distancing and isolation is followed, if before the date the numbers go to zero (or close to it), then the date is irrelevant. It is simple logic. I am tired of arguing with a person who a) does not standby what he writes, B) does not appear to read what I write, and C) just wants to go aroudnm and around.

    I will give you the last word on when we should start planning to reopen our economy. Good day.

  7. #1757
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Tom, this cannot be shown through any logical throught process. I walked you through it on my last post. Simply because picked a date in the future date to assume social distancing and isolation is followed, if before the date the numbers go to zero (or close to it), then the date is irrelevant. It is simple logic. I am tired of arguing with a person who a) does not standby what he writes, B) does not appear to read what I write, and C) just wants to go aroudnm and around.

    I will give you the last word on when we should start planning to reopen our economy. Good day.
    Compared to NY, the infection rate in SD is only one tenth that of NY. That does show the effect of crowding in large cities. 654 out of SD's 864 cases are near the one large city and half of those cases are from the Smithfield pork plant. You can't compare states without considering population density. It would be better to compare cities.

    South Dakota statistics are pretty well collected here:
    https://www.argusleader.com/story/ne...ty/5015675002/
    Compared to surrounding states, SD has a per capita rate of infection 1.4 to 3.8 times that of surrounding states.
    State Pop. Cases Per Capita Normalized
    SD 884,659 868 0.10% 1.0 1.0
    MN 5,639,632 1650 0.03% 0.3 3.4
    NE 1,934,408 871 0.05% 0.5 2.2
    ND 762,062 331 0.04% 0.4 2.3
    WY 578,759 394 0.07% 0.7 1.4
    MT 1,068,778 275 0.03% 0.3 3.8
    IA 3,155,070 1710 0.05% 0.6 1.8
    NY 19,453,561 196146 1.01% 10.3 0.1
    SD- Smfld 884,659 568 0.06% 0.7


    https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

  8. #1758
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    If you start to re-open things, you WILL see the models--all of them--showing new spikes in infection rates, deaths, and resources needed.
    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Tom, this cannot be shown through any logical throught process.
    peb,

    without wanting to antagonize you, I think this is where we disagree.

    My understanding is that, as soon as we start relaxing restrictions, every model will quickly start to show rapid increases in infections, deaths, and resources needed as the data comes in. That's what evolving models do--they react to data, right? And if, as you've agreed, social distancing is decreasing infections, deaths, etc., then it is logical to think that by ending social distancing, you'll see those things increase again. Just because we've flattened one curve doesn't mean it won't steepen again. The evidence suggests quite the opposite.

    So the quote above that you say "cannot be shown through any logical thought process" is, as I understand it, the inevitable outcome of following a hypothetical re-opening through to a logical conclusion.

    How am I wrong about that?

    I feel like you are pushing back against the majority of expert opinion on this thread. From the Paul Krugman piece George Jung posted:

    The thing is, as far as I can tell epidemiologists are united in the belief that it’s far too soon to be considering any relaxation of social distancing. The lockdowns across America do seem to have flattened the curve, allowing us to avoid — just — completely overwhelming the health care system. New cases may have peaked. But you don’t want to let up until you’re in a position to do so without giving the pandemic a second wave. And we’re nowhere close to that point.
    From the developing NE state governors' pact:

    As in other states participating in the deal, Baker's office maintained that it's too early to consider easing restrictions.
    From webishop14:

    Quote Originally Posted by webishop14 View Post
    Most of the "public consumption" graphs show a high out-of-control spike contrasted with a curve that looks more like a speed bump. And they show both curves starting and ending effectively at zero. This is not realistic. I've seen some curves where at the end of the graph, the speed bump begins to rise again.

    My take-away from these graphs is this: If all we do is shelter in place for 6 to 8 weeks, when we do step outside again, we'll be facing the same situation we faced at the beginning of it all: another spike that we need to spread out over time. This is not an effective strategy. What needs to be done is to put testing and contact tracing as has been done in South Korea -- test as many people as possible, and for those who test positive, follow up on all their recent contacts. A very large-scale testing program. I've seen no sign that Trump believes this to be necessary. It's a matter of stamping out the infections on a small-scale order, but we need the large-scale testing to be able to do this.

    And when we can do this large-scale testing of the population, then it will be relatively safe to go back to work.
    No one is arguing against planning. From what I see other posters saying, and the evidence they're sharing, the consensus seems to be that planning needs to focus on testing, tracing, and providing medical supplies and personnel that will be needed for ending restrictions.

    Not until resources to do that are in place would easing restrictions be reasonable. That's what most posters here seem to be thinking if I've understood them. But no one, including me, is arguing for a permanent shutdown.

    Do you disagree with that? If so, why?
    Last edited by WI-Tom; 04-14-2020 at 01:41 PM.
    You don't have to be prepared as long as you're willing to suffer the consequences.

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  9. #1759
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by twodot View Post
    South Dakota's experiment is just beginning.
    I think a lot of folks haven't grasped the likely slowing effect of things like population density, mobility of population, and how cosmopolitan a population is (amount of coming and going by non-residents).

    Those areas ranking higher in such considerations will have been hit first. But that doesn't mean the others will escape unscathed. Just that the progression happens at a slower pace. Which 'should' help some... but how much remains to be seen.

    But then... some are looking more to flesh out a partisan narrative than for understanding.
    David G
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  10. #1760
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    David G
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    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

  11. #1761
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by twodot View Post
    It looks like South Dakota is becoming an experiment.
    Another one of those pesky graphs:



    You can only hide behind low population density for so long.

  12. #1762
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    I'm more than passingly familiar with SD, and its' politics. RWW to the max; run by a network of good ol' boys, including state govt.. Noem is more hat than cattle, remarkably unqualified for governor. It's like watching a train wreck unfold.
    There's a lot of things they didn't tell me when I signed on with this outfit....

  13. #1763
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    .


    They're simply following the lead of their stable genius dear leader --




    David G
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    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

  14. #1764
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    David G
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  15. #1765
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Well the Spanish flu infected about 35% of the world population, that's without any tests or any idea whether there was a degree of asymptomatic infection. !00% infection seems unreasonable even without a vaccine. At some point enough people become immune that it can't transmit, and it dies out. Might take awhile tho'.
    If he ever drinks the brew of 10 tanna leaves, he will become a monster the likes of which the world has never seen



  16. #1766
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    AAAAAND...

    David G
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  17. #1767
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by David G View Post
    Perhaps, but its not that accurate. They have had 9 deaths, 4 yesterday.


    "New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said a decision on whether to extend the nationwide shutdown and state of national emergency, declared in late March, will be made on April 20. "

    From https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKCN21V087

    You guys should start fact checking some of your sources.

  18. #1768
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by WI-Tom View Post
    peb,

    without wanting to antagonize you, I think this is where we disagree.

    My understanding is that, as soon as we start relaxing restrictions, every model will quickly start to show rapid increases in infections, deaths, and resources needed as the data comes in.
    your understanding is not correct. And you have provided no evidence that it is correct.

  19. #1769
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by George. View Post
    The spread between those two percentages alone is enough evidence that the sampling is grossly insufficient.
    There are some circumstances that makes it very likely that the 2.5% is too low and needs to be corrected (self administered test and volontary participation). The 7% is most likely correct as it was performed by professionals with no possibility to opt out for the patient, but there might be an over representation of women in the age 18 -40 years amongst citizens who are about to give birth. The question is, are these women representative for the population in general regarding Covid-19 infection? Anyway, the step of going from a certain percentage of currently infected to the percentage who are now immune is more tricky and require some more or less shaky assumptions.
    If I take the 15% of infected women in New York, and assume that this is the peak, is representative for the whole population, that there is a window of 10 days when an infected woman will test positive and that the incubation time is 5 days, I can compare it with a very simple infection model (R = 1.5 and is constant). I then get a herd immunity of about 40% in New York and that the infection will level out at about 60%. The pandemic specialists should have access to better models compared to a typical Swedish engineer currently not allowed to enter his office.
    A test of antibodies would give the answers immediately without involving so much guesswork (assumptions sounds better).
    /Erik

  20. #1770
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Actually, i believe Wi-Tom is correct. Low percentage of the population (thought to be - who knows for sure?) infected; high infectivity rate with this virus; drop social distancing, and we're back, off to the races again.
    There's a lot of things they didn't tell me when I signed on with this outfit....

  21. #1771
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Perhaps, but its not that accurate. They have had 9 deaths, 4 yesterday.


    "New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said a decision on whether to extend the nationwide shutdown and state of national emergency, declared in late March, will be made on April 20. "

    From https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKCN21V087

    You guys should start fact checking some of your sources.
    Don't be disingenuous. It's a fast-moving phenomenon. Of course any meme made last week will be outdated today. Do you have any problem with the main thrust of the graphic... or only quibbles?
    David G
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  22. #1772
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by David G View Post
    Don't be disingenuous. It's a fast-moving phenomenon. Of course any meme made last week will be outdated today. Do you have any problem with the main thrust of the graphic... or only quibbles?
    I am not being disingenuous. It is a fast moving phenomenon and people quoting statements or data made a a week ago or longer to support an argument does not work. As far as I can tell, on the latest data, the Prime Minister of New Zealand is certainly being cautious about returning to normal, but is going to make a decision on April 20th.
    Why post out of data information to make a point?

  23. #1773
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    I am not being disingenuous. It is a fast moving phenomenon and people quoting statements or data made a a week ago or longer to support an argument does not work. As far as I can tell, on the latest data, the Prime Minister of New Zealand is certainly being cautious about returning to normal, but is going to make a decision on April 20th.
    Why post out of data information to make a point?
    Because, in essence, it's true. So... just quibbles then.
    David G
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  24. #1774
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by skaraborgcraft View Post
    Deaths in the UK from CV19 outside of hospitals have not made it onto the statistics......been a bit of an uproar about that according to the BBC, so deaths are higher than published
    BBC article here https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52278825 . Apart from the headline of 1 in 5 deaths now linked to virus, the main point is that about half of the excess deaths recorded by ONS were not Covid-19 related. From the link
    But what is not clear is what else is contributing to this spike in deaths - the coronavirus cases contributed just over half of the "extra" 6,000 deaths.
    It could be that cases of coronavirus are going undetected or other factors related to the lockdown and outbreak are having an impact, such as people not seeking treatment for other conditions or mental health deaths going up.
    Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, an expert in risk at the University of Cambridge, said this needed investigating.
    But he said he had "never been as shocked" as when he saw the scale of the increase in deaths.
    "I was upset. It is incredibly vivid. These are people," he said.
    Also, for comparison deaths by location



    Nick

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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    your understanding is not correct. And you have provided no evidence that it is correct.
    I guess we disagree, then. I'm quite sure we'll get a chance to see whether I'm correct sooner or later, somewhere in the world.

    But you do seem to be taking a minority view that's in conflict with what a lot of smart people are thinking.

    Tom
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by WI-Tom View Post
    I guess we disagree, then. I'm quite sure we'll get a chance to see whether I'm correct sooner or later, somewhere in the world.

    But you do seem to be taking a minority view that's in conflict with what a lot of smart people are thinking.

    Tom
    Show me the models that show as soon as we relax the restrictions, anytime before May 31 st, noatter where it us done, we will quickly see a rise in infections, deaths and healthcare resources. I have not seen one model which shows that. Nit one.

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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Originally Posted by skaraborgcraft
    Deaths in the UK from CV19 outside of hospitals have not made it onto the statistics......been a bit of an uproar about that according to the BBC, so deaths are higher than published

    Its a fluid and developing situation, not everyone is tested, not every death has a post mortem. This a crisis like no other for at least a century, maybe further back. People are dying alone whilst in isolation, people are not attending their doctor for their normal appointments, they are not getting script renewals for free of becoming infected. The only thing 'flattening the curve' and reducing cses is less contact with others. We ain't got a handle on this yet, and may not, if as is suspected, a reliable vaccine is not found.

  28. #1778
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Show me the models that show as soon as we relax the restrictions, anytime before May 31 st, noatter where it us done, we will quickly see a rise in infections, deaths and healthcare resources. I have not seen one model which shows that. Nit one.
    peb,

    I'm not aware of any models shared online, but I am aware of what seems to be the consensus. From a Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security professor:

    “If we all just went right back to how things were before, transmission would start again with the same intensity,” says Caitlin Rivers, a professor at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “It’s hard to experience so many restrictions, and so many hardships, and not feel like it’s not working. We need to recognize that we are doing the right things. You just have to be a little bit patient.”


    https://www.vox.com/science-and-heal...distancing-end

    And this:

    “To end the confinement, we’re not going to go from black to white; we’re going to go from black to gray,” top French epidemiologist Jean-François Delfraissy said in a radio interview.

    At the same time, politicians and health officials warn that the crisis is far from over despite signs of progress, and a catastrophic second wave could hit if countries let down their guard too soon. Deaths, hospitalizations and new infections are leveling off in places like Italy and Spain, and even New York has seen encouraging signs amid the gloom.
    “We are flattening the curve because we are rigorous about social distancing,” New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said. “But it’s not a time to be complacent. It’s not a time to do anything different than we’ve been doing.”
    https://www.voanews.com/science-heal...9-restrictions

    And from the governor of Illinois:

    [COLOR=rgba(13, 13, 13, 0.9)]For starters, the governor says that testing capacity must be ramped up, both for the virus itself and for the antibodies that can be detected in the blood of those who have contracted and recovered from the disease.[/COLOR][COLOR=rgba(13, 13, 13, 0.9)]
    “You need widespread testing,” he said. “We don’t have anywhere near widespread testing.”

    The state of Illinois conducted more than 5,000 tests in the last 24 hours, and has conducted more than 100,000 tests since the pandemic began. The state ultimately wants to conduct 10,000 or more tests per day, and is continuing to ramp up toward that number.
    [/COLOR]
    [COLOR=rgba(13, 13, 13, 0.9)]Secondly, the governor says that a “contact tracing system” must be put in place, enabling the state to not only identify those who have tested positive for the virus, but also to contact those that the person has come in contact with after contracting the virus.[/COLOR]
    [COLOR=rgba(13, 13, 13, 0.9)]Finally, a treatment to at least lessen the severity and longevity of symptoms is needed, according to the governor.[/COLOR]
    There are many more at your fingertips saying similar things.

    Frankly, I'm quite surprised to see you resisting so adamantly. What are you seeing that contradicts this apparent consensus?

    Tom
    You don't have to be prepared as long as you're willing to suffer the consequences.

    www.tompamperin.com

  29. #1779
    Join Date
    Sep 1999
    Location
    Norwalk, Ohio
    Posts
    33,108

    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    .
    California Gov. Gavin Newsom unveils guide to lifting state’s coronavirus restrictions:

    California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced Tuesday a guide to how California will reopen society and the economy across the state as officials weigh lifting restrictive orders meant to curb the spread of the coronavirus.

    Newsom became the first governor to issue a statewide stay-at-home order on March 19. He said Tuesday that the order and similar policies have successfully minimized California’s Covid-19 outbreak, which has infected more than 22,348 people across the state and killed at least 687 people in California as of Sunday, according to California Health and Human Services.

    “While Californians have stepped up in a big way to flatten the curve and buy us time to prepare to fight the virus, at some point in the future we will need to modify our stay-at-home order,” Newsom said in a statement. “As we contemplate reopening parts of our state, we must be guided by science and data, and we must understand that things will look different than before.”

    Local officials will have a “profound and outsize influence” on any any decision to lift public health orders, Newsom said. He went on to outline six key indicators that will guide the state’s decision as it considers lifting the stay-at-home order:

    “The ability to monitor and protect our communities through testing, contact tracing, isolating, and supporting those who are positive or exposed;
    The ability to prevent infection in people who are at risk for more severe COVID-19;
    The ability of the hospital and health systems to handle surges;
    The ability to develop therapeutics to meet the demand;
    The ability for businesses, schools, and child care facilities to support physical distancing; and
    The ability to determine when to reinstitute certain measures, such as the stay-at-home orders, if necessary.”

    Even once the stay-at-home order is lifted, Newsom said society won’t snap back to normal. For example, he said restaurants will likely have to limit capacity and face coverings in public will likely be common.

    “There’s no light switch here. It’s more like a dimmer,” he said at a news briefing. “Normal, it will not be until we have herd immunity and a vaccine. You may be having dinner with the waiter wearing gloves and maybe a face mask...where your temperature is checked before walking in. These are likely scenarios.”

    Newsom declined to offer a timeline on when the order might be lifted, but he told reporters that if the six requirements are met by the first week of May, “ask me the question then.” However, he cautioned that lifting the order too early could have dire consequences if the virus begins to spread rapidly.

    Ultimately, he said, society will have to remain vigilant at least until there is a vaccine for Covid-19, which is unlikely to be discovered and produced before 2021.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/cali...trictions.html
    I've seen attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. I watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhäuser Gate.

  30. #1780
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
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    Deepest Darkest Wales
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    23,708

    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Show me the models that show as soon as we relax the restrictions, anytime before May 31 st, noatter where it us done, we will quickly see a rise in infections, deaths and healthcare resources. I have not seen one model which shows that. Nit one.
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5348083/ <<< See 3.1.4 et seq.
    I'd much rather lay in my bunk all freakin day lookin at Youtube videos .

  31. #1781
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
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    victoria, australia. (1 address now)
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    66,095

    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    I'm getting "Fashion Pics" of combination hat/shield/mask combinations in the ads at the base of the page.
    The new normal?

  32. #1782
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
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    South Australia and Tasmania
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    21,556

    Default

    Reading the above debate is like watching a train wreck in slow motion. The US is headed towards being a failed state and those inside don't seem to realise it.

    Sent from my CPH1851 using Tapatalk

  33. #1783
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    New Hampshire
    Posts
    34,658

    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Today's stats really challenge my ability to comprehend: New York alone has almost 11,000 new cases and 800 new dead in 24 hours.

    I suppose that's just a fraction of the total dead in that state in any typical 24 hours, but it's still hard to comprehend.

  34. #1784
    Join Date
    Jun 2015
    Location
    Pompano Beach, FLorida
    Posts
    1,094

    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Relaxing restrictions will increase infection rates, but having had a portion of the populace infected and now a portion of them are immune, the infection rate will be slower. People will still die, more people will have permanent lung damage, and eventually the disease will infect everyone susceptible to it. We're all going to be exposed eventually, it's only a question of time. Hopefully the infection and severe case rate is within the capabilities of our medical system until a vaccine is available.

    The vaccine is more to protect future generations though. We're going to have to survive it or not. That's what happens when containment and testing fails.

    For examples otherwise, see South Korea.

  35. #1785
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Texas
    Posts
    13,936

    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by WI-Tom View Post
    peb,

    I'm not aware of any specific models shared online, but I am aware of what seems to be the consensus. From a Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security professor:



    That's from https://www.vox.com/science-and-heal...distancing-end

    And this:



    https://www.voanews.com/science-heal...9-restrictions

    And from the governor of Illinois:

    [/FONT]

    There are many more at your fingertips saying similar things.

    Frankly, I'm quite surprised to see you resisting so adamantly. What are you seeing that contradicts this apparent consensus?

    Tom
    Tom, the claim you made is that there can be no relaxation if isolation before May 32st, if there us the models show an immediate increase in infections, deaths and resources used. Not one of those 3 sources comes close to supporting that contention.

    The first references just going back to his things are done before. Really, you are still arguing that uncontested point? Grow up, do too the strawman arguments. It's insulting.

    The second refers to letting out guard down too soon. That us irrelevent also. The third is a partial plan if what's required to start opening up. Kind of what I have been advocating for the last few days.

    So try again. Remember, the May 32st date us important to what I am asking, as is the fact that we must maintain completely the steps we have taken so far. Those are your criteria, not mine. Waiting for evidence....
    Last edited by peb; 04-14-2020 at 05:51 PM.

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