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Thread: Novel Coronavirus

  1. #4761
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by StevenBauer View Post
    I asked this in the Mask thread but maybe it belongs here:
    In the "I don't know" department - I have no clue. With that said, I think we'll see those who are anti-vax and anti-mask getting sicker at a higher rate. From what Fauci and others have said, the current vaccines *Should* be effective against most of the variants that they have seen, so those that have had the vaccine can catch the new variant, but are likely to survive.

    I did see some disturbing news of some reported cases where folks had been vaccinated, but were positive for COVID after the fact. The news clip was unclear in its reporting in some ways. This seems to be what they were talking about: https://www.kgw.com/article/news/hea...e-a0cd7a3f000e

    I had my first shot yesterday and have my second one scheduled - finally.
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
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  2. #4762
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    I've compiled a graph with excess mortality and CV-19 deaths for 2020, arranged in order of decreasing excess mortality. It's based on EU statistics that were easily available for me, and I've manually added a few countries that I found interresting, which also report excess mortality. Australia, New Zealand and Norway are not included because these countries had a very low number of CV-19 deaths and also essentially zero excess mortality (as expected).

    Some countries have a substantially lower excess mortality than the number of CV-19 deaths (e.g. Ireland, Sweden and Belgium) which indicates that many who were counted as CV-19 deaths would have died during the year from other causes.

    Why do some countries, e.g. the US and Poland, have a substantially higher excess death count than CV-19 death count? Could it be suppressed statistics, motivated by upcoming elections?

    Mexico is an outlier so I would first check for problems with the statistics before analysing. Excess mortality was available in %, so I calculated the number of dead/million by assuming a 0.9% yearly mortality which as far as I know is true for at least Sweden and the US.
    Excess mortality.jpg
    /Erik

  3. #4763
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    "Why do some countries, e.g. the US and Poland, have a substantially higher excess death count than CV-19 death count? Could it be suppressed statistics, motivated by upcoming elections?"

    You old cynic you………….

  4. #4764
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    US has issued a 'do not travel' warning for Japan, 2 months short of the Olympics.
    I wonder if they will still go on.

  5. #4765
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by skuthorp View Post
    US has issued a 'do not travel' warning for Japan, 2 months short of the Olympics.
    I wonder if they will still go on.
    I think I heard unfavorable polling from the Japanese people.

  6. #4766
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by ERGR View Post

    Some countries have a substantially lower excess mortality than the number of CV-19 deaths (e.g. Ireland, Sweden and Belgium) which indicates that many who were counted as CV-19 deaths would have died during the year from other causes.

    Why do some countries, e.g. the US and Poland, have a substantially higher excess death count than CV-19 death count? Could it be suppressed statistics, motivated by upcoming elections?
    I looked into this several months ago, and this is mainly by memory, but I came up with one possible explanation. IIRC, the baseline projection from the CDC for 2020 was an actual decline in deaths. And I was not able to find information as to why this was the case, but it seemed unusual. Deaths do not normally decline from previous years. Now, before anyone claims I am falling off the edge or going full blown conspracy theory, let me be clear, I am not. THe CDC used the baseline they had already made pre-pandemic. But their baseline may have been wrong.

    This is what I have time to show now:
    If we compare the deaths from 2019 March - September with 2020 March through September, we get an increase of 293 thousand (Source: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/p...nal-tables.htm). If we look at coronavirus deaths from March through September we get 214K. So yes the undercount is there, but it not as large as the 50% undercoutn shown in your graph.

  7. #4767
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Gearing up to get the jab in about 3weeks. Have to get the flu shot first it seems.
    be modest, and be proud of it.

  8. #4768
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Outbreak here, from a returned traveller after quarantine. Growing.
    Limited lockdown start in 2 hours.

  9. #4769
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Sounds like Japan is seeing quite a spike

  10. #4770
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    I haven't seen/sought further info from a medicine review; but this 'caught my eye' - and I honestly can't discern - politicking? or a true suspicion re: C19 source. But it's interesting watching how this develops/unravels.

    Covid Live News: Updates on Vaccines, Variants and the Virus - The New York Times (nytimes.com)
    There's a lot of things they didn't tell me when I signed on with this outfit....

  11. #4771
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Just as we are approaching a greater easing of restriction we get this

    There are signs the UK is in the early stages of a third wave of coronavirus infections, a scientist advising the government has said.
    Prof Ravi Gupta, from the University of Cambridge, said although new cases were "relatively low" the Indian variant had fuelled "exponential growth".
    He said ending Covid restrictions in England on 21 June should be postponed.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57304515
    Structures uninformed by geometry tend towards the ramshackle.

  12. #4772
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Sounds about right.

    Here, they've eased restrictions - no longer requiring a mask; restaurants open and packed. 'Honor system' that you've been vaxxed.

    We were out a bit yesterday - and among the 'few' still wearing. Got some strange looks - and I suspect they're wondering if we did not vax, as a reason for masking.

    Interesting times.
    There's a lot of things they didn't tell me when I signed on with this outfit....

  13. #4773
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    I haven't seen/sought further info from a medicine review; but this 'caught my eye' - and I honestly can't discern - politicking? or a true suspicion re: C19 source. But it's interesting watching how this develops/unravels.
    Covid Live News: Updates on Vaccines, Variants and the Virus - The New York Times (nytimes.com)
    I notice that the origin of the CV-19 virus is an important issue in the US. I don't see why. Whether or not the virus originated in a lab, the Chinese will anyway have to make sure their high security labs are secure. The other (more likely?) origin that has been discussed, the Chinese live animal markets, also need to be adressed regardless. I don't see why the truth is important in this case. You have too many conspiracy wackos in the US.

    In Sweden we're gradually reducing restrictions from the beginning of June, not that the restrictions ever were as far reaching as in most of the world, and most restrictions have been in the form of recommendations. I think that people will be careful and maintain most of the social distancing during this summer anyway. That's about as long as I believe our collective memory lasts.

    /Erik

  14. #4774
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    In the US it's a political football. owing to grandstanding by our Trump supporting, fundamentalist PM (he thought he'd win), China's making a trade restricteing example of us and it's going hurt.And in Aus.
    The Fed's have stuffed up the vaccine rollout attempting to accrue all the kudos without a network capable of doing it. And as for quarantine, the Fed body responsible said "it's not our department" and left it to the States.

  15. #4775
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    It seems logical that if you do not want something to happen again, it's a good idea to understand why it happened this time. So yes, it is an issue. And from what I have read, not just in the US.

    What is amazing is that there are people who do not think it us a big issue.

  16. #4776
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    It's going to be an ongoing issue for the foreseeable future I reckon. The WHO did say at the start it had the potential to lower the world's population. Architecture regarding ventilation and AC will change too if it isn't doing so already.

  17. #4777
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    I don't think the exact origin of the pandemic is a big issue. All identified possible origins need to be adressed anyway. Searching for possible origins is important, not proving which one it was.
    Erik

  18. #4778
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Just had 2nd jab. Very busy it was too, but I had an appointment.

  19. #4779
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by ERGR View Post
    I don't think the exact origin of the pandemic is a big issue. All identified possible origins need to be adressed anyway. Searching for possible origins is important, not proving which one it was.
    Erik
    Yes and no.

    If the virus was released from a lab, then it means it was not from a direct animal to human vector. If it was not released from a lab then we still need to focus on animal to human vectors (which we should continue to do in absence of other evidence).

    China is the source of many influenza variants, SARS, and COVID. If they did not tell the truth about Covid, it’s possible they might not tell the truth about future variants.

    I have no doubt that the Trump/Qanon crowd will learn all the wrong lessons and say ridiculous things from whatever we learn about the source of COVID. I am more confident that the Biden administration and the rest of the world will learn the lessons and adjust.

  20. #4780
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    "I have no doubt that the Trump/Qanon crowd will learn all the wrong lessons and say ridiculous things from whatever we learn about the source of COVID."

    Do you think they'll ban bats?………………..

  21. #4781
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by ERGR View Post
    I don't think the exact origin of the pandemic is a big issue. All identified possible origins need to be adressed anyway. Searching for possible origins is important, not proving which one it was.
    Erik
    Do we address possible sources which are deemed extremely unlikely as strongly as others?

  22. #4782
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    At present in Oz.
    Given the apparent Federal and State level of non professional approach to the vaccine rollout I am surprised we are doing as well as we are.

    No procedure in place to record who has been vaccinated.

    No procedure in place to ensure aged care and disability are vaccinated.

    No procedure in place to ensure the above workers are vaccinated BEFORE they attend a workplace.

    NO Federal and State coordinated approach to quarantine.

    And those are just the ones i can think of!
    be modest, and be proud of it.

  23. #4783
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    It seems logical that if you do not want something to happen again, it's a good idea to understand why it happened this time. So yes, it is an issue. And from what I have read, not just in the US.

    What is amazing is that there are people who do not think it us a big issue.
    The problem is in most cases looking for someone to blame is a denial coping mechanism to avoid dealing with the problem. Stigmatizing people. When a virus is moving through the population energy needs to be devoted to stopping it. Sure it’s important to know origins but the idea that knowing origins will prevent outbreaks is a flawed assumption.

  24. #4784
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    LeeG, so your position is that vitality research regarding the prevention of future pandemics is pointless?

  25. #4785
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Do we address possible sources which are deemed extremely unlikely as strongly as others?
    Who or what is doing the deeming?
    I'd much rather lay in my bunk all freakin day lookin at Youtube videos .

  26. #4786
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by LeeG View Post
    Sure it’s important to know origins but the idea that knowing origins will prevent outbreaks is a flawed assumption.
    Not as flawed as the assumption that it's possible to prevent outbreaks without knowing origins, though...

    That said, I agree with you that Trump's enablers and anti-vaxers will use this for denial and blame. But it still has to be done, even though it's likelier this was a spillover than a lab escape.

    Tom
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  27. #4787
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Future pandemics are a certainty, a dead certainty, the changing climate alone will ensure that. Way back after the Spanish Flu in Victoria a specialist infectious diseases hospital was built,and the medical establishment put in place to support it. The building was long outdated by the 1970's and was sold of for housing ina period of very dodgy real estate dealings by a state Premier, and never replaced.
    The battle is now to re-establish, on a permanent basis, a similar facility and the research institution to go with it. But political interference and rivalry has already blighted Aus's response and I doubt the politicians we have have th balls or the ideals to carry it out. The Feds are still talking of 'getting back to normal' and not recognising that from round February 2020 this is now the new normal, mainly I expect because they are a coalition with a RW to keep satisfied.

  28. #4788
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Our species is terrible at follow through on strategic planning, especially on public health and similar issues. Because effective prevention means that we are unaware of the tragedies which have not occurred.

    We can see the impacts in long term metrics like lifespan changes, but by definition these metrics are squishy, with attribution to this or that particular prevention initiative almost impossible to hammer down to real numbers rather than estimates.
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

  29. #4789
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Humans evolved from the beginning as an opportunist species probably a scavenger and life was short.
    We haven't changed that much, we are still scavenging of the fossil bank and still mostly think short term.

    see: http://forum.woodenboat.com/showthre...Authoritarians

  30. #4790
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by P.I. Stazzer-Newt View Post
    Who or what is doing the deeming?
    WHO

  31. #4791
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Instead of worrying so much about the origin of the original outbreak, people should be worrying about the origin of all the more dangerous variants that are being brewed up right now in sh!thole countries.

    Something could actually be done about that.

  32. #4792
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Thes countries have not the access to vaccines, as our more wealthy countries are very short sightedly not helping with vaccine supplies. We are all in this together, even if our politicians and big pharma only recognise quarterly profits.

  33. #4793
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by George. View Post
    Instead of worrying so much about the origin of the original outbreak, people should be worrying about the origin of all the more dangerous variants that are being brewed up right now in sh!thole countries.

    Something could actually be done about that.
    Yep. Or as the Qidiots would say (correctly this time), "Where we go one, we go all." The newest noxious variant I've heard about is in VietNam; a hybrid which combines the ickiness of the variants from the UK and India.
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

  34. #4794
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Do we address possible sources which are deemed extremely unlikely as strongly as others?
    Interesting question. Leaving politics aside, which determine what's possible to address, my view is:
    We should address possible sources for future pandemics in the order of likelihood in combination with the cost to address the issue. If we concentrate too much on Covid-19 and its origins we risk preparing for the last war instead of the coming war, as we usually do. Searching for the source is important, finding it less so.
    Also unlikely events happen. Maybe an unlikely event created Covid-19 and we find it. It might not be the best use of our resources to focus on preventing a similar unlikely event. Addressing a possibility that didn't come to fruition this time, but is more likely, is probably a better use of our resources. The money might also be best spent on other threats than preventing the next viral infection.

    /Erik

  35. #4795
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by skuthorp View Post
    Thes countries have not the access to vaccines, as our more wealthy countries are very short sightedly not helping with vaccine supplies. We are all in this together, even if our politicians and big pharma only recognise quarterly profits.
    Well, we agree on this. I have little faith in the US doing the right thing. Yes, Biden has promised 80 million doses, but that's not as much as we could do. Indeed, it makes very little sense for us to vaccinate kids under the age of 16 who are not in a risk category prior to sharing as much as possible with third world countries. But we will likely do the opposite, science be damned.

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