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Thread: Novel Coronavirus

  1. #351
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by bluedog225 View Post
    Coronavirus disruption to ‘everyday’ life in US ‘may be severe,’ CDC official says

    Beans-check
    rice-check
    TP-check
    coffee-check

    There is no possibility of disruption.
    I don't bother with the tp. fyi.

  2. #352
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Hitting Costco (my favorite store) in the next few days to load up. Coffee alone will run the bill up past 250. I'm committed to the notion that any privation can be endured if one has an adequate supply of coffee.

  3. #353
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    Default

    The good news is that governments rarely survive an election in a recession

    Sent from my CPH1851 using Tapatalk

  4. #354
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    I’m afraid we will need to delay the election indefinitely. Public health concerns. Sorry!

  5. #355
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    …and that's not a joke either…….

    Friend has been advised to stock up on his meds……..ex China mostly. Untill that is India tools up to take up the slack………. hang on, there's something wrong with that…………...…………

    The fact that the briefing was 'classified' almost certainly says that they know something they don't want us to know……or that secrecy is so ingrained that the brand of toilet paper is a classified secret, everything is secret.

  6. #356
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    We were/are planning another trip to the USA as we so enjoyed our 2017 trip.
    That was supposed to be May/June this year with bookings etc done in early March.
    With this Carona virus situation, it looks increasingly likely we will postpone until 2021.
    I once thought I was wrong, but I was wrong, I wasn't wrong.

  7. #357
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    "1) will be solved soon, as we learn the outcome of the Diamond Princess petri dish cases, where everyone on board is being tracked so the total number of infected will be known."
    This is the test group ? Have you ever seen the people who go on cruise ships? Not the most fit group. I think half their luggage is for the Rx dope they need to walk to the on board restaurants. But then , maybe this IS a typical sample of how healthy we are not.

  8. #358

    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    It's not only about the US. We were planning a vacation to France in April but have to say there are currently so dark clouds on the horizon that it looks better to stay at home, and even here in Finland the government's "preparedness & prevention" doesn't make you feel that confident. It won't be a doomsday scenario but the economic and humanitarian wounds will take for long to heal. As Dr. Chris Martenson said recently, the governments have to face the following "acts":

    1. Need to keep people isolated & contained to prevent spread, get R0 below 1.0.
    2. Need to keep economy going at least enough to feed everyone.
    3. Need to keep infection rate below level that swamps hospitals.

    Keeping those three things in balance is going to be a too big challenge for most of the countries.

    Be prepared.

  9. #359
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Enough to tip 'western civilisation' on it's head? I'd say not on it's own with the present information, but it's early days yet.
    Some say otherwise.

    A member of the Olympic Committee has raised the possibility that the Tokyo Olympics might be cancelled.
    It seems that risk management may not be enough.
    Last edited by skuthorp; 02-26-2020 at 05:29 AM.

  10. #360
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    World War One + Influenza did not destroy western civilization. I doubt this will.

    1918 was no picnic, though....

  11. #361
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by George. View Post
    World War One + Influenza did not destroy western civilization. I doubt this will.

    1918 was no picnic, though....
    Imagine 1918 with global air traffic.

  12. #362
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by StevenBauer View Post
    Imagine 1918 with global air traffic.
    I usually take my son to Europe for spring break. We may be staying put this year. I'll evaluate when the time comes, but it's definitely a concern.
    Tom

  13. #363
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Our authorities are about to "confirm" that we have a case in Brazil. A man who arrived from Italy on the 21st tested positive yesterday, but of course Bozonaro and his minions need to recover from their Carnaval hangovers and develop some semblance of a "response" before it is official.

    Our Minister of Health is up early saying don't worry, it is just a flu. This is going to be a disaster.

  14. #364
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by George. View Post
    World War One + Influenza did not destroy western civilization. I doubt this will.

    1918 was no picnic, though....
    I agree, but keep in mind: most of the population was living in the rural hinterlands, and the lack of completely interdependent global supply chains for everything.

    Also, I think people were a little more immune to disruptions in the status quo, just coming out of WWI. My grandfather's journal, San Francisco 1918, was quite calm. I'm paraphrasing since I last read it about six months ago but this is the jist: "Played cards, John won but he cheats, the cart came for the bodies of the neighbors, how sad, I wonder what is for dinner tonight."

  15. #365
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    The reason people were calm in 1918 is that news of the widespread outbreak were censored due to the war. The hardest hit were the troops, and that had to be concealed from the enemy by all sides.

    That is why it is called the "Spanish" Flu. Spain was not in the war so it reported on the epidemic.

    People were isolated indeed, so they did not know that their local tragedies were part of a worldwide disaster, and most important, they had no warning that it was coming until it arrived. And after it and the war were over, people wanted a "return to normalcy", so they didn't dwell much on what had happened.

  16. #366
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Wilkinson View Post
    I usually take my son to Europe for spring break. We may be staying put this year. I'll evaluate when the time comes, but it's definitely a concern.
    We have plans to fly to the UK this Summer. That may have to change.
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
    -William A. Ward



  17. #367
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    The panic is about to become widespread, thanks to social media and the breathless nattering of what passes as the news media these days. We are about to see a protracted period of self-isolation, of countries, of cities, of neighborhoods, and families bugging-in until the scourge passes.

    News flash: This virus is likely to become a permanent resident in the human population.

  18. #368
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by genglandoh View Post
    It looks like the growth of the total number of cases are slowing down.

    Assuming the countries are reporting the truth

    Attachment 53613
    The number of new cases has slowed down.
    If the virus is really like the flu the number of cases will start to drop in a month or two.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flu_season
    In the United States, the flu season is considered October through May.[9] It usually peaks in February.[10] In Australia, the flu season is considered May to October. It usually peaks in August.[11]
    Flu seasons also exist in the tropics and subtropics, but are usually less sharply defined. In Hong Kong, which has a humid subtropical climate, the flu season runs from December to March, in the winter and early spring.[12][13]
    "The only rules that really matter are these: what a man can do and what a man can’t do." Captain Jack Sparrow

  19. #369
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by twodot View Post
    In 1918 my grandmother, Lois, was engaged to marry. Her family came west from Ohio to Utah in the 1840s, with a wagon train of fellow Mormons. The fiance died of influenza. His passing opened the door for Roy, my grandfather, not a Mormon and a man who liked bars. Their two sons, including my father, left the church, Jack Mormons, but the daughter stayed with the church until her death and had four sons and four daughters. Last week my mother and I, while eating lunch, tried to name all eight sons and daughters. We couldn't get the name of the last son. Eventually my mother, who is 89 and has bad short term memory loss, calmly said, Craig.
    Super story!

  20. #370
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by genglandoh View Post
    The number of new cases has slowed down.
    If the virus is really like the flu the number of cases will start to drop in a month or two.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flu_season
    In the United States, the flu season is considered October through May.[9] It usually peaks in February.[10] In Australia, the flu season is considered May to October. It usually peaks in August.[11]
    Flu seasons also exist in the tropics and subtropics, but are usually less sharply defined. In Hong Kong, which has a humid subtropical climate, the flu season runs from December to March, in the winter and early spring.[12][13]
    Look at that chart, Geng. It does not fit with any model of virus spread under containment. The line looks like it literally bends at certain points, as if something were forcing it to do so.

    This is what everyone who understands anything about the science is saying. Those charts are nonsense. The most likely explanations for the reported drop in Chinese cases are:

    1) The government is covering it up to persuade people to get back to work and re-start the economy; or

    2) The drop is because the draconian containment measures worked - meaning that if they are eased, the outbreak will re-start, so the choice is control the virus or save the economy. Now that it is worldwide, it is not like China can eliminate it.

    Neither one is very encouraging for the markets.

  21. #371
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by genglandoh View Post
    The number of new cases has slowed down.
    If the virus is really like the flu the number of cases will start to drop in a month or two.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flu_season
    In the United States, the flu season is considered October through May.[9] It usually peaks in February.[10] In Australia, the flu season is considered May to October. It usually peaks in August.[11]
    Flu seasons also exist in the tropics and subtropics, but are usually less sharply defined. In Hong Kong, which has a humid subtropical climate, the flu season runs from December to March, in the winter and early spring.[12][13]

    FYI SARS had the some starting and ending time frame as the FLU.
    Both SARS and the current COVID-19 are coronaviruses.
    So I still expect the current outbreak will be dropping in a month or two.
    "The only rules that really matter are these: what a man can do and what a man can’t do." Captain Jack Sparrow

  22. #372
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Sweet Mother of God reds are Dangerously Stupid.

  23. #373
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by genglandoh View Post
    FYI SARS had the some starting and ending time frame as the FLU.
    Both SARS and the current COVID-19 are coronaviruses.
    So I still expect the current outbreak will be dropping in a month or two.
    Did you finally remove those pesky lower shrouds from your mast?

  24. #374
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Also, there's a third factor. I don't think there's a good way to count total number of cases at this point. There may be a large number of unknown cases out there. I would regard SARS and COVID-19 as apples and oranges and not make assumptions.
    Will

  25. #375
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    My Grandmother, a nurse at 20 worked the wards during the great Spanish flu in NYC. It was life changing for her.

    we have tickets for Europe in April. Damn I hope we still can go.
    Without friends none of this is possible.

  26. #376
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by willmarsh3 View Post
    Also, there's a third factor. I don't think there's a good way to count total number of cases at this point. There may be a large number of unknown cases out there. I would regard SARS and COVID-19 as apples and oranges and not make assumptions.
    That is true, some people with COVID-19 might
    1. Be staying home thinking it is just a mild case of the flu.
    2. Be staying home worried that their Government will take them away.
    3. go to a Doctor and get misdiagnosed.
    "The only rules that really matter are these: what a man can do and what a man can’t do." Captain Jack Sparrow

  27. #377
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by John of Phoenix View Post
    Sweet Mother of God reds are Dangerously Stupid.
    this can’t be emphasized enough

  28. #378
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    The ignorance sure is strong with some people. And the ability to reach a completely wrong conclusion given a fixed set of facts is mind boggling.

  29. #379
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Estimated death rate Covid 19 - about 3%, +/-. SARS - around 6%; MERS - 40%. All coronaviruses; all started from wild animal trade.

    This is likely to be a stinker, and something we'll have to deal with, long-term. Hope treatment options develop, and soon; hope the vaccine is effective. And it'd be nice if *some countries* would get away from the live/wild game markets. It's getting old.

    An aside - just saw a youngish woman, RN, likely has an as-yet unconfirmed pulmonary problem, partial immunodeficiency, inflammatory bowel problem, likely autoimmune. Scheduled to attend a meeting in India, in May. Ixnay on that one.
    There's a lot of things they didn't tell me when I signed on with this outfit....

  30. #380
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    I'm not a contagious disease expert, but I play the part on the internet and in ****ards administration.

  31. #381
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Scheduled to attend a meeting in India, in May.

    Death wish?

  32. #382
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by George Jung View Post
    Estimated death rate Covid 19 - about 3%, +/-. SARS - around 6%; MERS - 40%. All coronaviruses; all started from wild animal trade.

    This is likely to be a stinker, and something we'll have to deal with, long-term. Hope treatment options develop, and soon; hope the vaccine is effective. And it'd be nice if *some countries* would get away from the live/wild game markets. It's getting old.

    An aside - just saw a youngish woman, RN, likely has an as-yet unconfirmed pulmonary problem, partial immunodeficiency, inflammatory bowel problem, likely autoimmune. Scheduled to attend a meeting in India, in May. Ixnay on that one.
    Thanks for this post, George, it clarifies the situation for me - as my wife share some of your RN's issues - we have already curtailed international travel - and may do the same for domestic air travel -



    Rick

  33. #383
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Just mulling.... yaknow, many Evangelicals claim trump was 'an answer to our prayers'. Coronavirus, and the international political/economic fallout, likely will be full-throated by election time. If so - trump is likely toast. So... do you imagine God feels trump has finished his mission? Or is all this an answer to everyone elses prayer?
    There's a lot of things they didn't tell me when I signed on with this outfit....

  34. #384
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by George Jung View Post
    Estimated death rate Covid 19 - about 3%.
    Where did you get that? I have been seeing estimates of 1-2% (excluding the fear mongers and some fools in the press).

    The problem is we don't know how many infected people are out there to do the division.

    For example, Italy has 12 deaths. That would have to be divided by the number of people who got sick at around the same time as those who died, which we don't know. The press keeps dividing it by the number of people that we know to be infected today, which is wholly unrelated. And to do it right, we would have to wait for the whole cohort to die or recover.

    There are some models out there, but they will only get robust from now on, with international data, as the data from China is crap.

    But again, the real worry is the percentage that needs hospital care. That has been consistently reported at 15-20% in all samples. What drives me up the wall is all the idiots at WHO, CDC, etc., who keep reminding people that "80% of cases are mild", as if that meant there is little to fear. The press, unable to do simple subtraction, keeps parroting this without questioning it. Ask people in Wuhan what 20% needing hospital looks like.

  35. #385
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Over 15,000 killed by firearms in the US last year and we are freaked out by a bug. I didn’t see the markets tank after any of the mass shootings.
    Seems like a heard a phrase once that went something like “a person is smart, but people are stupid”. The 24 hour news is all about ratings and FEAR. You don’t hear about the majority of people that recovered. Haven’t seen one interviewed. Only lots of videos of Asians wearing facemasks. Hell, they did that before this damn bug was around.
    And we have this idiot in the WH that wants to build a wall along a border, but didn’t act to stop infected people flying into the US.
    Fight Entropy, build a wooden boat!

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