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Thread: Novel Coronavirus

  1. #3501
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    folks may be talking 'past' each other, to some extent. Definitely worth looking at, studying; and the 'possibilities' certainly need to be considered. The caveat - so far, not enough 'meat' from all that, to recommend a change in what we're doing, treatment options. As it's been, all along.
    There's a lot of things they didn't tell me when I signed on with this outfit....

  2. #3502
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by George. View Post
    You are right that we are making assumptions. I wouldn't go out and publish this just yet. However, they are assumptions based on an observed pattern that so far has no exceptions, and can't easily be explained otherwise. It is worth looking into.
    Not in the death statistics, but in the pattern of new wave, are you sure Spain is not an exception?

  3. #3503
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by George Jung View Post
    folks may be talking 'past' each other, to some extent. Definitely worth looking at, studying; and the 'possibilities' certainly need to be considered. The caveat - so far, not enough 'meat' from all that, to recommend a change in what we're doing, treatment options. As it's been, all along.
    This.
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
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  4. #3504
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by Canoez View Post
    Frankly, I'll trust what my doctor is reading and reporting on before what I hear from semi-anonymous sources on the interwebs.

    Massive assumptions. Right.

    "Some level of immune reaction" Do you know that level provides you with protection? What my doctor was telling me is that is highly unlikely.
    Ok, trust your doctor. But if you are interested in other points of view, I found this for you. It provides a nifty little table that points to the various T-Cell immunity studies that have been performed. Look at the last column.

  5. #3505
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    All I'm seeing is crickets.
    There's a lot of things they didn't tell me when I signed on with this outfit....

  6. #3506
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by George Jung View Post
    folks may be talking 'past' each other, to some extent. Definitely worth looking at, studying; and the 'possibilities' certainly need to be considered. The caveat - so far, not enough 'meat' from all that, to recommend a change in what we're doing, treatment options. As it's been, all along.
    Well, I have been posting about this for almost 3 weeks now. I have not made one policy suggestion based on any of this. Nor has George. Nor do any of the reports that I have read. Your argument is somewhat a strawman.

  7. #3507
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Not in the death statistics, but in the pattern of new wave, are you sure Spain is not an exception?
    The second wave in Spain seems concentrated in places like Catalonia, which had a death rate of less than 0.1% in the first wave, so I think in that case there might be fuel left to burn...

  8. #3508
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Well, I have been posting about this for almost 3 weeks now. I have not made one policy suggestion based on any of this. Nor has George. Nor do any of the reports that I have read. Your argument is somewhat a strawman.
    Still itchin' for a fight, eh? Man, I don't know what else to do, peb. In my post, I'm not making 'an argument'. I'm pointing out the obvious - you and others are talking 'past' each other. And afa 'not making policy suggestions' - that's great - but it's not how it looks, from here. You've seemingly been advocating for a brighter 'take' on state of the art; perhaps that's not your intent, but - it's what I'm seeing. We all see things from our own bias, I would think. I'm not looking for an argument. At this point, all of us should be following developments, this virus, this pandemic - and advocate.
    There's a lot of things they didn't tell me when I signed on with this outfit....

  9. #3509
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by George Jung View Post
    Still itchin' for a fight, eh? Man, I don't know what else to do, peb. In my post, I'm not making 'an argument'. I'm pointing out the obvious - you and others are talking 'past' each other. And afa 'not making policy suggestions' - that's great - but it's not how it looks, from here. You've seemingly been advocating for a brighter 'take' on state of the art; perhaps that's not your intent, but - it's what I'm seeing. We all see things from our own bias, I would think. I'm not looking for an argument. At this point, all of us should be following developments, this virus, this pandemic - and advocate.
    Actually, have not been itching for a fight at all. You are. You claim you are not making the argument that we are advocating policy changes, and then you so "its not how it looks from here". Rare to see someone so blantantly contradict themselves in a single post.

    I am not advocating anything. I am stating what I see as a definite possibility going forward to how the disease is going to evolve. It is speculation, I will not take exception to your words "not enough 'meat' from all that". But as demonstrated above, there are experts making the same speculation. Is it a "brighter side of things"? I think so in the long term. But it doesn't bode well in the short term. Not at all. Indeed, it indicates that most regions are going to have to go through a lot of pain before we get to a level of herd immunity as seen in New York. Here in Texas, we may be almost there. Hasn't been fun. But it is a brighter side of things compared to the typical cnn report that talks about antibodies not lasting long, no long-term immunity, without a vaccine we will be going through this over and over again, etc.
    But I have speculated a lot about how various locals might go, how the US might go, in the next 2 or 3 months; have speculated what some of the T-Cell research might indicate, have asked you personally for explanations contrary to my speculation. Never advocated anything during this time beyond wearing masks, social distancing, washing hands, staying home when sick, etc.

  10. #3510
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Stockholm was a hot spot (and rest of Sweden luke warm). Like many other areas we applied restrictions when the infection started to get out of hand in mid March. The restrictions, lock downs or whatever effective measure you apply immediately starts to reduce the infection rate, and at this time there had been very few infections and no immunity from Covid -19 to help.

    Now, when the infection has run its course, and there are very few new infections we should have some immunity to help keep R0 less than 1. My observation is that we also maintain much of the social distancing plus some other measures that were implemented to stop the infection in April, and do it out of habit without much effort. The absence of new spikes in places like New York, Lombardy and Stockholm is probably due to a combination of immunity and remaining restrictions.

    Stockholm has a death count of 2384 on a population of 2.3 million, so we're a little above 1000 deaths per million. We've now had zero reported deaths for 5 consecutive days, but I expect at few more deaths because we still have 12 patients in ICU.

    The percentage of positive antibody tests don't match the number who should have been infected according to models calibrated with randomized PCR testing. My very limited experience is that all persons who had obvious symptoms (=clinically diagnosed Covid -19 or positive PCR tests at hospitalization) also have antibodies, but almost none without symptoms or with diffuse symptoms have antibodies although we were exposed to the virus.

    Erik

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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    <SNIP>

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    ...before we get to a level of herd immunity as seen in New York. Here in Texas, we may be almost there...
    <SNIP>

    Statements like that one are the ones that just don't make any sense. First of all, what herd immunity? We still don't know if it is even possible. Second, random antibody testing in NYC showed a high of 32.6% in the Bronx - and that was random sampling of the population, so it wouldn't be hiding asymptomatic patients that might otherwise be missing from Covid-19 testing. Well below any conceivable threshold for herd immunity if we are assuming a 60-70% penetration in the population. What impact did antibodies have in NY? Nobody knows yet if it even had an impact. Approaching herd immunity in Texas. Huh. Population of 29 million Texans. 413K recorded cases of Covid-19. Even if the uncounted number of cases is 10 times that 413K, that's would still only be 14% of the Texas population who *MIGHT* be carrying antibodies. Long way to go still, I'm afraid. These are the sort of observations that make me question your statements. Understand?
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
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  12. #3512
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by ERGR View Post
    Stockholm was a hot spot (and rest of Sweden luke warm). Like many other areas we applied restrictions when the infection started to get out of hand in mid March. The restrictions, lock downs or whatever effective measure you apply immediately starts to reduce the infection rate, and at this time there had been very few infections and no immunity from Covid -19 to help.

    Now, when the infection has run its course, and there are very few new infections we should have some immunity to help keep R0 less than 1. My observation is that we also maintain much of the social distancing plus some other measures that were implemented to stop the infection in April, and do it out of habit without much effort. The absence of new spikes in places like New York, Lombardy and Stockholm is probably due to a combination of immunity and remaining restrictions.

    Stockholm has a death count of 2384 on a population of 2.3 million, so we're a little above 1000 deaths per million. We've now had zero reported deaths for 5 consecutive days, but I expect at few more deaths because we still have 12 patients in ICU.

    The percentage of positive antibody tests don't match the number who should have been infected according to models calibrated with randomized PCR testing. My very limited experience is that all persons who had obvious symptoms (=clinically diagnosed Covid -19 or positive PCR tests at hospitalization) also have antibodies, but almost none without symptoms or with diffuse symptoms have antibodies although we were exposed to the virus.

    Erik
    That's basically what I have seen in studies. For those individuals who have been symptomatic, the immune response is great enough to trigger a measure of antibodies that might be therapeutic in some way. Those that have been asymptomatic may have measurable antibodies, but not in significant quantity to be beneficial.

    The NY state didn't discriminate between the levels of antibodies in the blood samples taken, to my knowledge.

    I think that the biggest thing is that the areas with the biggest outbreaks suppressed the spread by typical means. With summer activities and gatherings going on in areas that suppressed the spread earlier, I think we will know if we see the numbers rising again.
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
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  13. #3513
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by Canoez View Post
    <SNIP>



    <SNIP>

    Statements like that one are the ones that just don't make any sense. First of all, what herd immunity? We still don't know if it is even possible. Second, random antibody testing in NYC showed a high of 32.6% in the Bronx - and that was random sampling of the population, so it wouldn't be hiding asymptomatic patients that might otherwise be missing from Covid-19 testing. Well below any conceivable threshold for herd immunity if we are assuming a 60-70% penetration in the population. What impact did antibodies have in NY? Nobody knows yet if it even had an impact. Approaching herd immunity in Texas. Huh. Population of 29 million Texans. 413K recorded cases of Covid-19. Even if the uncounted number of cases is 10 times that 413K, that's would still only be 14% of the Texas population who *MIGHT* be carrying antibodies. Long way to go still, I'm afraid. These are the sort of observations that make me question your statements. Understand?
    Yes, understand everything you are saying. How many d!@n times to I have to say it, the herd immunity I am talking about is speculation based on the possibility (do you know what the words speculation and possibility mean?) that there is a preexisting cross over immunity from other coronavirus that is in the 30 -50 % range of the populatino. I do not know how I can be any more clear. Every post I have written mentioning herd immunity in the past 3 weeks has been based on this possibility and I have made it clear from the very beginning it is speculation.

    Are you guys that dense? I can reread the post to Dr. Jung it seems so clear. The sentence in that paragraph was "It is speculation".

  14. #3514
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    I was checking the apple mobility data, it does not appear that areas such as New York and New Jersey have less mobility than areas that are currently hot spots.

  15. #3515
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    I was checking the apple mobility data, it does not appear that areas such as New York and New Jersey have less mobility than areas that are currently hot spots.
    For interstate travel including NY, NJ and the New England states, there are no restrictions. There are restrictions on travelers entering these states from other areas and residents returning from hotspots. (With limitations.). Our biggest risks right now in the Northeast are people gathering in large groups and not following quarantine restrictions. If you are caught not quarantining, in some places it is a $500/day fine.
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
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  16. #3516
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by Canoez View Post
    For interstate travel including NY, NJ and the New England states, there are no restrictions. There are restrictions on travelers entering these states from other areas and residents returning from hotspots. (With limitations.). Our biggest risks right now in the Northeast are people gathering in large groups and not following quarantine restrictions. If you are caught not quarantining, in some places it is a $500/day fine.
    Yes, the only other explanation can think of for New York maintaining it's low rate of new cases is the travel restrictions coming into the state.

  17. #3517
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by Canoez View Post
    For interstate travel including NY, NJ and the New England states, there are no restrictions. There are restrictions on travelers entering these states from other areas and residents returning from hotspots. (With limitations.). Our biggest risks right now in the Northeast are people gathering in large groups and not following quarantine restrictions. If you are caught not quarantining, in some places it is a $500/day fine.
    VT has significant restrictions. Except for 25 or so New England & NY counties anyone coming in from out of state must quarantine for 14 days or 7 days with a test on the 7th day (so it's really ~9 days)

    A client wanted me to come down onsite in CT. It is in a county (Fairfield) that's high enough to where I'd have to follow the same protocol.

    Correction: it's more than NE & NY. Here's the map. Blue = OK, yellow & red = quarantine

    https://accd.vermont.gov/covid-19/re...s-state-travel
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  18. #3518
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Yes, the only other explanation can think of for New York maintaining it's low rate of new cases is the travel restrictions coming into the state.
    People will and are ignoring these restrictions. My daughter works at a restaurant that is only doing take-out. She’s commented on the number of cars with plates from “hot zones” that are on road trips. Not good.
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
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  19. #3519
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    This virus takes advantages of what makes us human. We are a social, cooperative species and that is what has given us success. It will not be the first time that the same reasons for success are also the reasons for failure.

  20. #3520
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    .
    Two new studies published by JAMA Cardiology indicate that COVID-19 often results in lasting heart damage, even in formerly healthy people who have recovered from the initial symptoms.

    Well over half a year into the COVID-19 pandemic, experts are learning more about the virus that was initially believed to be only a respiratory illness. Over time, it’s become clear that COVID-19 attacks far more than just the lungs, and new research indicates that it can leave lasting heart damage, even in formerly healthy people who have recovered from the initial symptoms.

    Two new studies, both from Germany, examined the effects of COVID-19 on the heart, with one focusing on recovered patients and the other on older victims of the virus.

    The first study, published Monday in JAMA Cardiology, found that three-quarters of recovered COVID-19 patients were left with structural changes to their hearts, even two months later.

    The researchers examined cardiac MRIs from 100 recovered COVID-19 patients between the ages of 45 to 53, and compared them to MRIs of similar people who did not contract the virus. Most of the COVID-19 patients had recovered at home, while 33 had to be hospitalized at some point in their illness.

    Of the 100 COVID-19 patients, 78 had structural changes to their hearts. Within that group, 76 had a biomarker that is typically found in patients who had a heart attack, and 60 had heart inflammation, called myocarditis. The patients were all “mostly healthy … prior to their illness,” the researchers said.

    "The patients and ourselves were both surprised by the intensity and prevalence of these findings, and that they were still very pronounced even though the original illness had been by then already a few weeks away," study co-author Dr. Valentina Puntmann, a consultant physician, cardiologist and clinical pharmacologist at University Hospital Frankfurt in Germany, told UPI.

    The second study, also published in JAMA Cardiology, looked at autopsy reports from 39 COVID-19 victims between 78 and 89 years old who died at the start of the pandemic. The researchers found that the virus had infected the heart in 41 percent of the patients.

    “We see signs of viral replication in those that are heavily infected,” study co-author Dirk Westermann, a cardiologist at the University Heart and Vascular Centre in Hamburg, told Stat. “We don’t know the long-term consequences of the changes in gene expression yet. I know from other diseases that it’s obviously not good to have that increased level of inflammation.”

    https://people.com/health/three-quar..._P9_8sSTPev6C4
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  21. #3521
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    WHO thought so at the beginning…..
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/scien...ganisation-WHO

  22. #3522
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    Never advocated anything during this time beyond wearing masks, social distancing, washing hands, staying home when sick, etc.
    Yes you did. You advocated for re-opening schools without requiring either masks OR physical distancing.

    Quote Originally Posted by peb View Post
    I definitely vote "[Re-opening schools with no masks and no distancing] would be fine with me". At those levels, it would be criminally negligent in my mind to without a proper education from my kids base on such a low risk. Heck, I am taking much more risk than that sending my high school kids back to school in August.
    Tom
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  23. #3523
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by skaraborgcraft View Post
    What effect a second dose of CV19 will have on anyone previously recovered but in a weakened state?
    None, since they will have T-cell immunity.

  24. #3524
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    This new study seems to be bad news on 2 fronts. But I need to study it a little closer.

    https://www.drugtargetreview.com/new...n-study-finds/

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....24.20161653v2

    1) First of all, in studying how T-Cell immunity is behaving, looking at the reactivity of T-Cells in convalescent patients of Sars-CoV-2, it looks like most of the T-Cells do not target the spike protein. But that is the protein being targeted by most vaccines underdevelopment. So the vaccines are not taking the same approace as long term immunity that occurs naturally.
    2) Very little cross reactivity was observed from T-Cells taken from Sars-Cov-2 patients with any of 5 preexiting coronaviruses. Which bodes poorly for cross-immunity.

  25. #3525
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    OTOH, a paper out of Germany released on Wednesday suggests preexising immunity may very well exits in 35% of the population.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2598-9

  26. #3526
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    I don’t know what to make of this chart from the CDC. It looks like seasonal flu has disappeared.

    3D98688B-1CBF-46CD-820E-85474871FC41.jpg

  27. #3527
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by bluedog225 View Post
    I don’t know what to make of this chart from the CDC. It looks like seasonal flu has disappeared.

    3D98688B-1CBF-46CD-820E-85474871FC41.jpg
    Well, it is the summer time, ie out of season. But, I saw a report last week that said that the seasonal flu is not showing up this winter in the Southern Hemisphere. Apparently the steps taking to curb transmission of covid-19 are really working well to stop the flu. So perhaps we will also have a light flu season this winter. Small silver linings.

  28. #3528
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    A couple of weeks ago my niece had symptoms and tested positive for CV -19. No problems with that, after a few days she was free of symptoms and after a week she was considered recovered according to our guidelines. Her fiancé also developed symptoms after a few days but tested negative, twice. This is apparently quite common; sometimes the symptomatic person of a couple tests positive and the partner negative. Sometimes the symptomatic person tests negative and the asymptomatic partner positive. It's not a big issue from a medical point of view; if there are no viruses to be found the person cannot be very contagious. We've learnt to not trust PCR negatives but to rely also on clinical diagnoses for treatment.

    From a statistical point of view it's troublesome. The randomized PCR tests have probably missed quite a few infected persons, so the estimate on how many persons have had the infection could be too low. Add that we don't really know if an asymptomatic or low symptomatic person becomes immune or might catch the disease with severe symptoms the next time. As we learn more, more also becomes unclear.

    Erik

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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Yeah - the tests are not '100%', due to any number of factors. Early on, we were encouraged to go with clinical presentation, as 'bottom line'.

    Interesting the distancing/mask seemingly is affecting influenza. Real plus.

    Some of the vaccines are being large-scale tested. Keep yer head down, wait for 'the cure'!
    There's a lot of things they didn't tell me when I signed on with this outfit....

  30. #3530
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    The landscape of cognitive function in recovered COVID-19 patients.

    "In conclusion, our findings indicated that cognitive impairments exist even in patients recovered from COVID-19, and might be possibly linked to the underlying inflammatory processes."

    Scientific study, quite long;
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7324344/

  31. #3531
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    .
    I traveled to northern Ohio today to close on the new (to me) house. Nine days ago Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) announced that all citizens would be required to wear masks while out in public beginning the evening of Thursday, July 22. I stopped three times at rest areas on I-71 between Cincinnati and Ashland, Ohio. It appeared to me that about a third of the people at the rest areas were ignoring the mandatory mask order. It is this sort of non-compliance with guidelines that caused me from the very beginning to be pessimistic about the spread of COVID-19 in the U.S.A.
    I've seen attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. I watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhäuser Gate.

  32. #3532
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    I'm increasingly less optimistic about not only compliance with masks and distancing, but with the long-term effects of infection. For example:

    the virus, which has been largely considered to be a respiratory disease, can also wreak havoc on the kidneys, liver, heart, and just about every organ system in the body.
    ...
    Estimates of exact prevalence vary, but it seems that roughly 50% of patients diagnosed with Sars-CoV-2 – the virus responsible for causing the illness Covid-19 – have experienced neurological problems.
    ...
    “We are facing a secondary pandemic of neurological disease.”
    ...
    evidence is starting to accumulate demonstrating that the virus can actually invade the brain itself.
    Scary stuff indeed.

    Tom

    https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2...d-19-infection
    You don't have to be prepared as long as you're willing to suffer the consequences.

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  33. #3533
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    And worse, from the same BBC source:

    “If you had asked me a month ago if there was any published evidence that Sars-CoV-2 could cross the blood-brain barrier, I would have said no – but there are now many reports showing that it absolutely can,” says Stevens....
    The brain is normally shielded from infectious diseases by what is known as the “blood-brain barrier” – a lining of specialised cells inside the capillaries running through the brain and spinal cord. These block microbes and other toxic agents from infecting the brain.
    If Sars-CoV-2 can cross this barrier, it suggests that not only can the virus get into the core of the central nervous system, but also that it may remain there, with the potential to return years down the line.
    You don't have to be prepared as long as you're willing to suffer the consequences.

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  34. #3534
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Worth a read, for a simple summary of the T-Cell issue.


    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-0389-z

    "In conclusion, it is now established that SARS-CoV-2 pre-existing immune reactivity exists to some degree in the general population. "


    An interesting tweet by Nate Silver:

    "We are seeing somewhat clearer signs of declining cases and hospitalizations in Arizona, and to a lesser extent, Florida and Texas. But to be honest, that may be partly because *so many people got COVID in those states* that susceptibility is now lower." https://t.co/DSSTfyME1n

  35. #3535
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    Default Re: Novel Coronavirus

    Worth a read, for a simple summary of the T-Cell issue.


    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-0389-z

    "In conclusion, it is now established that SARS-CoV-2 pre-existing immune reactivity exists to some degree in the general population. "


    An interesting tweet be Nate Silver:

    "We are seeing somewhat clearer signs of declining cases and hospitalizations in Arizona, and to a lesser extent, Florida and Texas. But to be honest, that may be partly because *so many people got COVID in those states* that susceptibility is now lower." https://t.co/DSSTfyME1n

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