Debt ceiling bill - the coming GOP Apocalypse?

[TomF]

So, it's been a while since the knives were out quite so openly within the GOP "conference."

McCarthy's committed the sin of making some type of deal with the White House, rather than being willing to have the global economy crash. It's not sitting well with the expected wing of his party.

This has revealed that the rump GOP has not quite been entirely engulfed by the Trumpist cult; that some at least retain a vestigial interest in the public good. Or at least, their own good.

It's a foregone conclusion that McCarthy can't pass any debt ceiling bill without Dem help. Also, that accepting Dem help will lead the Trumpists to trigger a vote on McCarthy's Speakership, which he'd only survive with yet more Dem votes.

These splits are hardly new - they date to Gingrich, and before. They're certainly the evolution of the Tea Party, which made a "House GOP Majority" fictitious under Boehner and Ryan, who you'll recall blamed Dems for not assisting them in passing odious legislation. Just insufficiently odious to unite the Right.

[Garret]

Re: Debt ceiling bill - the coming GOP Apocalypse?

The opposite side of the spectrum ain't exactly happy either. Of course much of the Rep stuff in it is BS...

[David G]

Re: Debt ceiling bill - the coming GOP Apocalypse?

Yes... potentially painful (either way) strategic decisions face the D's.

Will they help prop up McCarthy... under the theory that he's better on tactical, caucus stuff than he is at policy stuff, and therefore presents less of a danger than the various alternatives? And better the devil you know, etc.

Or will they decide to roll the dice and let the R's install a new Speaker... under the theory that anyone who replaces him will be more tRumpian: crazier, less competent, more alienating to swing voters?

Door 1 is a choice for stability (of a sort).

Door 2 is hoping to hasten the day when the country comes to its senses re. how existentially dangerous today's R party is.

[TomF]

Re: Debt ceiling bill - the coming GOP Apocalypse?

I'm certain that's true, Garret. And with cause.

I see it a bit differently though.

The key thing Dems need to ponder is that this would have been different if more Dems in specific places had turned out to vote. Yes, it's odious that the Reps flatly refused to consider a "clean" debt ceiling raise, as they'd had the Dems provide to them 3X under Trump. The sole reason the Dems didn't raise the debt ceiling unilaterally in the lame duck session last year ... was that Schumer confirmed to the WH that the Senate Dems didn't have the votes. Thanks to Manchin and Sinema. Electing actual Dem majorities in each House of Congress would alter that.

If and when the House Republicans crash this particular bill, I suspect Biden will permit McCarthy to flounder and fully emasculate his own credibility within the GOP by cutting loose the Freedom Caucus and trying to govern as a moderate with some centrist-leaning Dem support.

When McCarthy fails, he'll see if 5 Republicans are willing to cross the floor to the degree of supporting a Discharge Petition. Essentially ending their own Republican political careers.

When that fails, he'll use the 14th Amendment option. Getting the equivalent of a "clean" debt raise bill, and all the political benefits of being seen as someone who actually created a bipartisan solution, being willing to compromise to do it ... without actually having to have made those compromises in the final analysis.

It's masterful, understated negotiating. Even when Biden loses, he wins.

[David G]

Re: Debt ceiling bill - the coming GOP Apocalypse?

I'm certain that's true, Garret. And with cause.

I see it a bit differently though.

The key thing Dems need to ponder is that this would have been different if more Dems in specific places had turned out to vote. Yes, it's odious that the Reps flatly refused to consider a "clean" debt ceiling raise, as they'd had the Dems provide to them 3X under Trump. The sole reason the Dems didn't raise the debt ceiling unilaterally in the lame duck session last year ... was that Schumer confirmed to the WH that the Senate Dems didn't have the votes. Thanks to Manchin and Sinema. Electing actual Dem majorities in each House of Congress would alter that.

If and when the House Republicans crash this particular bill, I suspect Biden will permit McCarthy to flounder and fully emasculate his own credibility within the GOP by cutting loose the Freedom Caucus and trying to govern as a moderate with some centrist-leaning Dem support.

When McCarthy fails, he'll see if 5 Republicans are willing to cross the floor to the degree of supporting a Discharge Petition. Essentially ending their own Republican political careers.

When that fails, he'll use the 14th Amendment option. Getting the equivalent of a "clean" debt raise bill, and all the political benefits of being seen as someone who actually created a bipartisan solution, being willing to compromise to do it ... without actually having to have made those compromises in the final analysis.

It's masterful, understated negotiating. Even when Biden loses, he wins.

That is brilliant and fetching vision.

So, you've been reading Machiavelli again, eh? You should drop by the 'What Are You Reading' thread and give it a review...

[skuthorp]

Re: Debt ceiling bill - the coming GOP Apocalypse?

LOL!, I reread Machiavelli quite recently…………

[CWSmith]

Re: Debt ceiling bill - the coming GOP Apocalypse?

There are some petulant Republicans on the news tonight urging all Republicans to vote against the budget pointing to specific items saying, "We didn't want this... we didn't want that!" as if they should get their way on everything. It was a compromise bill that leaves everyone unhappy; in other words, politics as usual.

[Gerarddm]

Re: Debt ceiling bill - the coming GOP Apocalypse?

US debt may not be questioned, according to the Constitution. The 'debt limit' is a load of BS and should be ignored/killed.

[David G]

Re: Debt ceiling bill - the coming GOP Apocalypse?

US debt may not be questioned, according to the Constitution. The 'debt limit' is a load of BS and should be ignored/killed.

Yes, it's silliness. It served a purpose back in the early 1900's - when it was installed in lieu of having congress vote on every bond issuance. But, in the 70's it was made moot by the Dems with some revisions to the budgeting process. And then passed the Gephart Rule which said that the ceiling was automatically raised as necessary when each new budget was approved.

Of course, that made too much sense. So punitive, austerity-minded R's managed to repeal it a couple of decades later... leaving us where we are. Always in danger of a crisis when the current ceiling needs to be revised. The R's like it because it gives them leverage they otherwise wouldn't have. This time it bought them a few minor concessions, but not much. As one non-partisan analyst put it: they managed to structure a compromise where Biden mostly won, but McCarthy got just enough so he could say he didn't lose.

But, yes, the ceiling really IS an anachronism at this point. It could and should probably be repealed... and the Gephard Rule, or something similar, reinstated.

[Mrleft88]

Re: Debt ceiling bill - the coming GOP Apocalypse?

The WV gas pipeline deal stinks to high heaven.... Well almost heaven, Blue ridge mountains, Shenandoah river.....

[Rich Jones]

Re: Debt ceiling bill - the coming GOP Apocalypse?

A Utah congressman resigned today to be with his ill wife.
Anyway, that is the reason given.
This leaves McCarthy with even a slimmer margin until a special election is called.
Ol' Kevin must be losing sleep.

[CWSmith]

Re: Debt ceiling bill - the coming GOP Apocalypse?

As much as I dislike McCarthy, he is starting to look like a reasonable politician compared to many in his party.

It gives me pain just typing those words.

[Garret]

Re: Debt ceiling bill - the coming GOP Apocalypse?

As much as I dislike McCarthy, he is starting to look like a reasonable politician compared to many in his party.

It gives me pain just typing those words.

Kind of in the way a 5 car accident is "better" than a 60 car pileup.

[George Jung]

Re: Debt ceiling bill - the coming GOP Apocalypse?

Good thoughts on this thread, and especially considering the comment in another, from the North Carolina congressman, interested in crashing the economy in order to help trump Dash has certainly looks like the far right, sees us as “their opportunity “to impose their own fascist government. One chance, maybe, to take over the country. I do hope enough people are paying attention, perhaps we can pull back from the abyss.

[Nicholas Carey]

Re: Debt ceiling bill - the coming GOP Apocalypse?

US debt may not be questioned, according to the Constitution. The 'debt limit' is a load of BS and should be ignored/killed.

Yes, it's silliness. It served a purpose back in the early 1900's - when it was installed in lieu of having congress vote on every bond issuance. But, in the 70's it was made moot by the Dems with some revisions to the budgeting process. And then passed the Gephart Rule which said that the ceiling was automatically raised as necessary when each new budget was approved.

Of course, that made too much sense. So punitive, austerity-minded R's managed to repeal it a couple of decades later... leaving us where we are. Always in danger of a crisis when the current ceiling needs to be revised. The R's like it because it gives them leverage they otherwise wouldn't have. This time it bought them a few minor concessions, but not much. As one non-partisan analyst put it: they managed to structure a compromise where Biden mostly won, but McCarthy got just enough so he could say he didn't lose.

But, yes, the ceiling really IS an anachronism at this point. It could and should probably be repealed... and the Gephard Rule, or something similar, reinstated.

If I was President, my inclination would be to say that

- Congress has allocated funds, and
- Congress has passed a law that requires me to spend those funds. On what they were allocated for, and
- Congress has failed to provide tax revenues sufficient to cover their spending, and
- Congress has passed a law limiting how much money I can borrow

The US is out of cash, and since Congress has put me in a place where I am limited by two conflicting laws (e.g., I can't borrow more money, and must spend funds I don't have), and must violate one of them, I choose to ignore the law in a way that does the least damage and ignore the debt ceiling.

That would be my inclination.