Will Erdogan Win?

[gypsie]

Its a pivotal election.
If it can be called an election at all - we wait to see.

20 years in power but recent events are straining the patience of the Turkish people.
Earthquakes, pizzing off the west, signing nuclear power deals with Russia.....
Health issues seem very real.

Will he allow fair elections?
Will he agree to transfer the power if he goes.

Which way does Turkey go? Toward Russia, or Toward the west? How will the EU react to him being reelected - me thinks they are sick of him and his antics. What happens to Hungary then - no ally.
Does Sweden get its security sorted with NATO?
What of the Kurds?
Cyprus?

Turkey as always, a pinch point in geopolitics.

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/article/2023/05/12/erdogan-s-defeat-in-the-turkish-presidential-election-is-secretly-hoped-for-in-paris-berlin-and-washington_6026383_23.html

[Keith Wilson]

Re: Will Erdogan Win?

Aligning with Russia does not seem like an intelligent strategic move at this point in the Great Game.

[David W Pratt]

Re: Will Erdogan Win?

Seems to me that any country that sees Russia as a danger would see prolonging the current war as a benefit. Even if Russia "won" it would be a victory to make Pyrrus jealous.

[JimD]

Re: Will Erdogan Win?

I heard he was on the phone with Trump and then announced that the only way he loses is if the election is rigged.

[skuthorp]

Re: Will Erdogan Win?

I rather feel Jim has gotten Erdogan's thinking correct. And he may be in a position to know about election rigging…………………...

[Chip-skiff]

Re: Will Erdogan Win?

If he "wins," there'll be riots in Istanbul.

[dutchpp]

Re: Will Erdogan Win?

Most modern Turks want him to loose the election.
If you are interested in the modus operandi of the dictator Erdogan the writer Gönül Tol wrote a very good book, the title "Erdogans war".
(no relation with writer of publisher)

[skuthorp]

Re: Will Erdogan Win?

What side is the army on?

[dutchpp]

Re: Will Erdogan Win?

They usually pretend to be neutral but I wouldn't be surprised if they secretly also want a regime change.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Re: Will Erdogan Win?

The Turks I know and have known are/were sensible enough. But I think the analogy with Trump is a good one.

The bastard is going to cheat.

[Andrew2]

Re: Will Erdogan Win?

The Turks I know and have known are/were sensible enough. But I think the analogy with Trump is a good one.

The bastard is going to cheat.

That is the big worry.
I might be wrong, but didn't he pardon the builders that broke the rules on skimping construction, leading to more collapses in the quake?

[dutchpp]

Re: Will Erdogan Win?

^^Yes he did.
His latest trick is that the state payed the natural gas bill of all? the people living in Istanbul/Ankara/Turkey (I'm not sure it's hard to verify), so that you remember to vote on the best candidate tomorrow.

[skuthorp]

Re: Will Erdogan Win?

The equivalent of openly bribing the voters. I guess we'll know soon enough if they are bribable.

[gypsie]

Re: Will Erdogan Win?

Looking like a run off. Erdogan likely to get 49.86%, not the 50% for a home run.

[skuthorp]

Re: Will Erdogan Win?

He's lost there youth vote, and that will not improve. If he wins expect more repression, if he just loses……….. the army may have a part to play yet.