Ukraine

[Edward Pearson]

Re: Ukraine

The wider issue for Russia is how does it leverage off Western sanctions now?

Its not the war that posses the biggest risk to the Russian state.

I cant see why or how they would be lifted. Full and immediate withdrawl and Ukraine joining NATO would surly be the minimum terms possible, but Europe can just wait Russia out till it colllapses.

Europe will need to consider what sort of end this is for Russia to get our preferred outcome.

I was looking at Russia’s gold reserves 2300 tons. Normally at 67 mil a ton but he’d have to sell it at a discount in quantity and only China seems to be buying it in volume outiside UAE. That only pays for 4-5 months of warring at 40 bil a month if he emptied it. Half selling it, doesnt get him much more time.

[Nicholas Carey]

Re: Ukraine

It's not an obligation to provide another country with water. Russia took Crimea, so the water provision became its responsibility.

And it is most especially not an obligation to provide water to the armed forces of that country who has invaded and is occupying your land (which see Russian 2014 invasion and seizure of Crimea).

[JayInOz]

Re: Ukraine

They seem to work to some sort of roster system George. And my point about the Chinese vehicles earlier wasn't about their military capabilities, but to the fact that they are new, and in numbers, and from putins bestest buddy, China. Now wait for our resident defender of all things Chinese to chime in JayInOz

[Osborne Russell]

Re: Ukraine

It seems an awful lot of hand wringing . All I’ve read, the preponderance of evidence convicts Russia. And then we have the final straw, Paul G, charging ‘it’s the Ukrainians.” Sounds like a royal flush.

Read the cards, pay up, or pull your iron.

[heimlaga]

Re: Ukraine

Meduza has researched how the Russcist propaganda apparatus are trying to distort facts concerning the destruction of the Nova Kahovka dam.

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/06/09/accentuate-the-positive

[dutchpp]

Re: Ukraine

The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, June 9.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-9-2023

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least four areas of the front on June 9, making further gains around Bakhmut and in Western Donetsk.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged on June 9 that the Ukrainian counteroffensive recently began and noted that Ukrainian forces still have offensive potential, a departure from previous Kremlin efforts to downplay Ukrainian counteroffensives.
• Contrarily, much of the Russian information space prematurely claimed that the Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed after Russian forces damaged more Western-provided Ukrainian military equipment on June 9.
• Ukrainian officials directly acknowledged that Ukrainian forces expect to suffer equipment losses during counteroffensive operations.
• The Russian command structure responsible for areas of southern Ukraine is unclear and likely overlapping.
• Russian forces carried out missile and drone strikes across Ukraine on the night of June 8 to 9.
• Several independent sources reported additional evidence that an internal explosion likely destroyed the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam on June 6.
• The White House revealed on June 9 that Iran is helping Russia build a drone manufacturing factory in Yelabuga, Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, underscoring the growing military cooperation between Tehran and Moscow despite Western sanctions.
• Chief of the Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov discussed increasing Russian-Chinese military cooperation with Chinese Central Military Commission (CMC) Joint Staff Department Chief of Staff Liu Zhenli on June 9.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted limited and localized ground attacks south of Kreminna.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks near Bakhmut and on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Ukrainian forces continued limited ground attacks on the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russia continues to evade international sanctions and has reportedly restored access to key Western microchips and electronics that Russia needs to produce military equipment.
• A Ukrainian report states that Russian authorities may be preparing evacuations from northern Crimea.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on June 9 that Russia will begin deploying tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus in July 2023, and this is not an escalation from Putin’s prior nuclear weapons rhetoric.

[George.]

Re: Ukraine

So, the counteroffensive is on. Looks like a bunch of probing attacks along the south and SE front. A better-confirmed pincer counterattack around Bakhmut - smart. The Russians will have to defend against it even if they know it is a feint. And a drive south from Orikhiv. If they break through there they drive to the sea and cut off Crimea.

https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Orikhiv,+Zaporizhia+Oblast,+Ukraine,+70500/Tokmak,+Zaporizhia+Oblast,+Ukraine,+71709/@47.4062128,35.1368462,9z/data=!4m14!4m13!1m5!1m1!1s0x40dda640c18cd1b3:0x89481c585e509499!2m2!1d35.7876745!2d47.5658802!1m5!1m1!1s0x40dd6bbe8fa0b1e3:0x4a39f9fbf1288f63!2m2!1d35.7098365!2d47.2464085!3e0?entry=ttu

[Paul Pless]

Re: Ukraine

So, the counteroffensive is on.

and just like clockwork, putin announces move to place tactical nukes in belarus

[Edward Pearson]

Re: Ukraine

The probing attacks are exactly that...sappers carrying out demining. Seems a Leopard and some Bradleys were destroyed while demining was going on in no mans land. That cant be easy. NATO would bomb line through and have destroyed the Russians from the air first. Not having our boots on the ground or in the air is going to cost Ukraine a bit and make Russia look less incompetent. Ukrainian morale must be high though. Thing is Ukraine aren’t going anywhere, the EU can easily afford a war (its costing small change) and there’s plenty more kit if they need it.

[gypsie]

Re: Ukraine

Ukraine appears to be playing straight into Russian Doctrine hands for now. And it's hurting.
3 of 12 brigades committed, Ukraine are probing on 6 vectors.
Russia is reported to have 14 soldiers per kilometre of front, down from 40 to 50 at the start of the war (according to Le Monde).

Putin has come out his shell to say that Ukraine are failing in all their objectives. Likely that is an order to his machinery.

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/06/10/ukraine-has-launched-its-counter-offensive_6030756_4.html

[Gerarddm]

Re: Ukraine

Hmm, that looks like a Challenger II, not a Leopard in that pic above. Not good doctrine to have armor bunched up like that.

[Paul G.]

Re: Ukraine

The probing attacks are exactly that...sappers carrying out demining. Seems a Leopard and some Bradleys were destroyed while demining was going on in no mans land. That cant be easy. NATO would bomb line through and have destroyed the Russians from the air first. Not having our boots on the ground or in the air is going to cost Ukraine a bit and make Russia look less incompetent. Ukrainian morale must be high though. Thing is Ukraine aren’t going anywhere, the EU can easily afford a war (its costing small change) and there’s plenty more kit if they need it.

I dont think this image means what you think it means

[Gerarddm]

Re: Ukraine

^ I have no idea what you mean. That isn't Russian armor.

[Paul Pless]

Re: Ukraine

the EU can easily afford a war (its costing small change)

because per usual, europe isn't paying for the bulk of the cost of their own defense

[Breakaway]

because per usual, europe isn't paying for the bulk of the cost of their own defense

Kaa-ching!


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