Ukraine

[SKIP KILPATRICK]

Re: Ukraine

"Maybe they were drunk!"

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Re: Ukraine

Cant see that working out according to plan, if it is the plan. BTW what army in the world advertises their intentions on social media etc. This is all disinformation, everyone needs to stand up for peace and end the killing.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces often do so. This may or may not resemble what their actual plans are, of course.

[gypsie]

Re: Ukraine

Welcome to the thread Andante, it looks like you may have only recently heard about the Ukraine war. I think this thread is quite a good record of how it has progressed, you should check it out from the start.

It also means that the Ukranians, who by all accounts have less people to throw at their counter-offensive, can focus their troops north of Zaporzhzhia for now whilst also potentially messing up the Russians' long-prepared defensive lines south of the Dnipro for when the floods have receded. It also helps Ukraine that the dam was in Russian-controlled territory. Makes it easier for the world opinion to focus further outrage towards Moscow.

None of that makes any sense.
The Ukrainians do not need to flood their own cities and towns in order to concentrate forces. They can do it anyway. Why deny themselves an attack point and mess up the defenses on that attack point simultaneously? Defending a river crossing as significant as the Dnipro is not as troop intensive as attacking. By the time the Russians have mustered enough force at any given point on the river the Ukrainians would be able to have enough defensive resources in place. The flooding of the Dnipro won't decrease the defensive resources Ukraine needs, it absolutely decreases the amount of defensive resources Russia needs. Russia is on the defensive now, not the offensive. The flooding was a defenmsive move.

The fact that it would take a massive effort to blow the dam, waaaaay more than a HIMARs, and it is in Russian control as you say - surely that makes the culprit clear?

Why did the Ukranians hit it with Himars last year?....

I suspect it will ultimately be of more benefit to the Ukranians than the Russians. They would likely have to cross the river at some point, now around 100kms of Russian defensive positions have been largely wiped out.

The Ukrainians were already on the opposite bank of the Dnipro.
Russian propagandists have been roaring for weeks about how disgraceful it is that the Russian Army could let them just sit there. Those Ukrainian positions are now very likely flooded out.

But riddle me this - why, of all the times in the war, would Ukraine decide now is the best time to blow up civilian infrastructure? They haven't been doing it so far. Now, on the apparent precipice of a counter offensive, they would deliberately create a scenario that would suck in massive energy and resources to deal with - namely rescuing and managing tens of thousands of displaced people from flooded areas. We've been experiencing floods like those, here in Australia recently - they are a huge draw on people and resources. As well as the significant detrimental effect on morale.
And why when Ukraine does decide to blow up civilian infrastructure, do they choose their own?

I don't know where this fence you are sitting on is, but it feels like it's either just outside Moscow, or on another planet.

FYI - the Ukrainians used HIMARS last year to disrupt the Russian evacuation of the northern bank. If you back to about page 200 or 250-ish on the thread i think you'll see more.

[Lew Barrett]

Re: Ukraine

Jake Broe's dam case, though it's hardly needed given the Kremlin's record for truth telling.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7_avjzntfOc&t=1041s

As a former English teacher I wish Jake didn't occasionally mess up his pronunciation or make certain other minor grammatical errors but that doesn't diminish the pleasure I take in his musings. And when he does make an error (except in his usage which seems to be generational) , he always acknowledges it. Tonight he gets it right. The Russians are positively celebrating this event. Follow the facts. Send guns, aid and money to Ukraine.

[Lew Barrett]

Re: Ukraine

Here's a video from a Telegram channel I monitor about how the Ukrainians are dealing with life their animals on the Dnieper. It's not a pleasant video but compare the Ukrainian response to the Russian response to this tragedy. They continue to fire on the rescue boats, they don't care for their wounded much less Ukraine's.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D66pwBDZTKQ&t=7s

[Lew Barrett]

Re: Ukraine

The Ukrainian Armed Forces often do so. This may or may not resemble what their actual plans are, of course.

They started out with Soviet doctrine but that doesn't;t work. There was that idiotic Discord leak some months ago and I don't know how that plays into this but it's been relatively easier for the Ukrainians to pivot as respects tactical goals. they have been adopting NATO standard combined arms strategy (to the extent you can have combined arms actions without an air force or navy) and the result is they have become much more flexible in planning overall. There's no doubt the floods work against any broad offensive which I image has been planned to be in several directions, one or more of which may be a feint. That's classic Soviet strategy of course, but it makes sense when a front is so long. That front just got considerably narrowed and will call for adjustments. Bated breath time, but one thing's for sure. While the Reds seem to have great strength in the disinformation space, the Ukrainians and western intelligence are generally well ahead of the orcs when it comes to what's happening on the ground.

looks like the orcs have hammered their first Leopard/s. For real. It's starting.

[dutchpp]

Re: Ukraine

The ISW Russianoffensive campaign assessment, June 8.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-8-2023

Key Takeaways

• Ukraine has conducted counteroffensive operations with differential outcomes in at least three sectors of the front as part of wider counteroffensive efforts that have been unfolding since Sunday, June 4.
• Ukrainian forces conducted a limited but still significant attack in western Zaporizhia Oblast on the night of June 7 to 8. Russian forces apparently defended against this attack in a doctrinally sound manner and had reportedly regained their initial positions as of June 8.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) responded to the Ukrainian attack with an uncharacteristic degree of coherency and praised Southern Military District elements for repelling the attack and regaining lost positions.
• Russian sources provided explanations for claimed Russian successes during the June 8 attacks, praising Russian forces’ effective use of electronic warfare (EW) systems, air support, and landmines against Ukrainian forces.
• Russian forces appear to have executed their formal tactical defensive doctrine in response to the Ukrainian attacks southwest of Orikhiv.
• Ukrainian attacks in western Zaporizhia on June 8 do not represent the full extent of Ukrainian capabilities in the current counteroffensive.
• It is additionally noteworthy that the Russian Southern Military District Forces deployed in this particular area are likely to be a higher quality force grouping than Russia has elsewhere in theater, and their defensive performance is unlikely to be reflective of defensive capabilities of Russian groupings elsewhere on the front.
• Russian forces and occupation authorities continue to exacerbate the humanitarian ramifications of the flooding resulting from the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam break.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin has reportedly postponed his annual press conference from June 2023 until November or December 2023.
• Russian forces continued to conduct limited ground attacks on the Kupyansk-Svatove line and around Kreminna.
• Ukrainian forces made limited gains around Bakhmut, and Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Ukrainian forces continued to conduct limited ground attacks on the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts.
• The Russian MoD continues to posture itself as a firm authority over the defense industrial base (DIB) through emphasizing its ability to transport new equipment to the front.
• Russian occupation authorities are reportedly resorting to punitive measures against civilian populations in occupied Ukraine due to Russian occupation authorities’ decreasing influence over civilians.

Zaporizja.jpg

[dutchpp]

Re: Ukraine

Please delete the map and don't publish any information concerning the ongoing offensive. We don't want the Russcists to know what Ukraine is doing. The Ukrainan high command has asked everybody to not spread any kind of information in the coming weeks.

I only republish information that already is widely available on the internet, it's a bit naive to think that the Russians don't have access to these kind of publicly available information.

[skuthorp]

Re: Ukraine

Nevertheless dutchpp……………..

[Lugs]

Re: Ukraine

The fkucrs who think land mines and cluster munitions are good, should go pick up the pieces.

Both have been shown to kill more civilians than armed opposition, its been known for decades. Used by scum.

There's still tens of millions of them out there in Laos - exploding as time goes by. I've met many of the victims, those with hands and legs blown off.... and the spouses of those who didn't survive.

[skuthorp]

Re: Ukraine

Nobody's hands clean there. And I suspect more are being laid than are being neutralised. Even way down in the falklands there are no go areas now.

[Nicholas Carey]

Re: Ukraine

Why did the Ukranians hit it with Himars last year?

Most likely because there's a road across the dam, a place to cross the river. You might notice the damage (missing bits) to the roadway noted in the various photos. That denies that crossing to the Russ.

[Paul G.]

Re: Ukraine

Nobody's hands clean there. And I suspect more are being laid than are being neutralised. Even way down in the falklands there are no go areas now.

Imagine working in factory that makes these things, petal bombs etc. Eventually that poison seeps out into polite society.

The dam destruction is not so simple, Ill do a bit of copypasta because I know nothing about dams!


"In the Kakhovka dam collapse, there is no one single reason, rather a combination of events caused by a human factors. The chain of events is logical from the engineering viewpoint. The start was extensive shelling by one side causing damage to the dam structure and the regulating components such as sluice gates. The next is a water hydrostatic pressure buildup and wave-induced vibrations of the moving mass of water and impact on the likely disabled regulating devices. Carefully calculated discharge of the large water mass upstream corresponds with at first glance unrelated events on the battlefield (startup of the counteroffensive) further supporting the chain of events theory."

The Kakhovka dam and hydroelectric power plant is a part of the Kakhovka Reservoir which is the last dam in a cascade consisting of 6 dams and reservoirs on the Dnieper River.




According to Russian sources, the upper part of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station was destroyed as a result of the shelling by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but the dam itself survived. This was announced on June 6 by the mayor of Nova Kakhovka Vladimir Leontiev. As a result of partial damage to the plant, the water level downstream rose several meters. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said they were monitoring the situation at the Zaporizhya Nuclear Power Plant and there is no threat to the safety of it. The plant director Yury Chernichuk noted that the heat removal system for the reactors (6 in total) can be replenished with both water from the Kakhovka reservoir and alternative sources.


According to the Ukrainian and Western media, the dam was mined and blown by the Russians.


In any case, the environmental catastrophe downstream is horrific.


Let’s now discuss the phenomena of underwater explosion:


The physical picture of an explosion of a high explosive charge in water is qualitatively similar to an explosion in the air. However, since water has low compressibility and is a denser medium than air, the numerical values of the explosion parameters differ from the same parameters in air. At the moment when the shell explodes underwater, a detonation wave approaches the boundaries of the charge, a strong shock of the explosion products onto water occurs, and a shock wave develops in it. The density of water at the shockwave front increases at most by a factor of 1.5. As the shock wave propagates in water, all its parameters rapidly decrease. because of this, to achieve the desired effect, the shell needs to explode very closely to the designated target. Irreversible losses during an explosion in water are small, and the energy of the explosion transferred to the shock wave is spent mainly on mechanical work associated with the involvement in the motion of the mass of water, through which the shock wave passes.


The main factors determining the destructive effect of an explosion of a charge in water are shock wave (primary and secondary), hydro flow (created by the movement of the mass of water displaced by the gas bubble and moving behind the shock wave front), an explosion product of the gas bubble (in the case when the target is at a distance). At present, there are no theoretical methods to estimate the destructive effect of the explosion of the explosive charge in water. Since up to 50–60% of the explosion energy is concentrated in the main shock wave, the calculation of the effect of an underwater explosion is commonly limited to the evaluation of the shock wave action. It is assumed that the more intense the main shock wave is, the stronger will be the effect of other associated damaging factors (secondary wave, water flow, explosion products), all other things being equal.

Logically, a larger quantity of the explosive will create a stronger shock wave. The question is how to deliver the large quantity to explode right beside the sluice gate or at the bottom of the dam. The effect of Dambusters Raid in 1943 is an excellent example of how a large bomb placed by the dam can cause physical damage that will lead to structural failure using the effect of the accumulated water. There is no difference here, just the methods of delivering the required quantities are different. An aerial bomb is out of the question so the explosive can be delivered by unmanned vessels. Nowadays Ukraine is using them to attack far from their shores so application in the Dnieper River is not unreasonable. The question is will they do that? On the night of dam destruction, no large explosion (corresponding to 300+ kg of high explosive) is reported publicly. It is worth saying now that in some of the previous attacks (as a probability) a vessel or a rocket with 300+ kg of high explosive either on the surface or slightly beneath will definitely derail the heavy steel gate, punch out of the side rail and bend it. No repair can be performed on-site and that gate is permanently out of service.


We can now with certainty say that the explosives either due to shelling or placing are not the major reason for the dam breach, but rather one of the contributors. Saying this, what may be the main reason? It is now pointing to the shear force of nature - meaning the huge masses of the fast-moving water, the rapid increase in the hydrostatic pressure, and the induced vibrations

and so on... in other words serious analysis and investigation are required. Its very easy to say the other side did it but until the war is over and a thorough investigation is done it simply amounts to conjecture about who stands to benefit.

[Nicholas Carey]

Re: Ukraine

There's still tens of millions of them out there in Laos - exploding as time goes by. I've met many of the victims, those with hands and legs blown off.... and the spouses of those who didn't survive.

There's a crap-ton of mines on both sides of the Dnieper, laid by both sides. Many (most?) of them have been washed downstream. They'll be killing people for decades.

[gypsie]

Re: Ukraine

Paul, what a long winded way of saying what Peerie Maa said a page or two back.

Of course it ignores a few things, no mention of Russian control, no mention of Ukraine having to clean up while being shot at by Russia. Zero mention of form; who has been blowing up civilian infrastructure for months, with a fetishistic focus on electricity?