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  • Re: Ukraine

    The occupiers (Russian Federation troops) are morally exhausted by the long wait for the Ukrainian counteroffensive. They are constantly moving and panicking. The Rushists (a common Ukrainian epithet for Russian soldiers) do not know in which direction our counteroffensive will take place and keep 450 km of the front…in constant tension.. They get nervous and…in some cases resorts to desertion. All this speaks of the enemy's moral and psychological instability,” Humaniuk said"

    Just what I posited a while ago, keep them guessing and jumpy, especially appropriate for a badly trained conscripted military unused to independent action. These actions may yet prove just to be an upgrade of previous psyc. warfare.

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    • Re: Ukraine

      Originally posted by Paul G.
      What i will say is that all wars end at the table, the sooner the US and Russia get there the better it will be for Ukraine.
      Wars end formally at the table, after the fighting ends. After.

      I recall a table on the deck of the USS Missouri anchored in Tokyo bay. Russia was present in her posture as having declared war on Japan after the fighting was over (two days after Hiroshima), in order to be in the position to divvy up the spoils of victory. Russia delayed the setting up of that table until she was ready to make her demands.

      The American War Of Independence ended formally at a table in England. The fighting ended at Yorktown.

      The war ends when one side is defeated. The table is where they formally admit it, afterwards.

      It is in the vital interest of the world, and especially of Russia, to go to the table with some proposal that at least begins to establish a structure to deal with the post-defeat situation. Whatever proposal Russia has made or is ever likely to make, until after her defeat, will be unsatisfactory.

      There is war because Russia started it and continues it. Believing that she cannot be defeated, as you say. Only one way to change that.
      Do not speak of "our institutions" unless you make them yours by acting on their behalf.

      Timothy Snyder, On Tyranny (2017)​

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      • Re: Ukraine

        I think Russia can be defeated in the field, but 'winning' would be a much longer task.
        I should have said 'winning over'. Because from here at least the Russian mindset, if such a generalisation can be made, seems to favour top down authoritarian rule. But then they have never really had a choice. Changing that would be a longer term project requiring a great deal of good will.
        Last edited by skuthorp; 06-05-2023, 06:01 PM.

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        • Re: Ukraine

          Originally posted by Paul G.
          Whatever.
          ”Russia believes it has no choice”… Who is Russia, tovarich?

          Don’t bother to reply; I have put you on « ignore ».
          Last edited by Andrew Craig-Bennett; 06-05-2023, 06:34 PM.
          IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

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          • Re: Ukraine

            Originally posted by Andrew Craig-Bennett
            ”Russia believes it has no choice”… Who is Russia, tovarich?

            Don’t bother to reply; I have put you on « ignore ».


            Tovarich lol! such an emotive comment, in other words any deviation of popular opinion is unacceptable. I am looking at facts, Men and boys are dying needlessly, a country is being destroyed so the only morally right thing to do is end it as soon as possible. I do not believe that any amount of western intervention will defeat Russia militarily because it is a nuclear power. That does not make me friends with Russia but I do question the action of states that do not support a negotiated settlement because they are banking on a military victory. This is a terrible situation and as the New Yorker pointed out, they are not soldiers but human beings and shouldnt we be doing everything possible to end the killing?
            whatever rocks your boat

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            • Re: Ukraine

              The Nova Khakova dam has been blown up by Russian forces.
              Last edited by Andrew Craig-Bennett; 06-06-2023, 12:27 AM.
              IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

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              • Re: Ukraine

                Ukraine war: Kyiv says troops advance on eastern front https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65813560
                IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

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                • Re: Ukraine

                  NYT reporting US satellites are picking up increased activity. The Ukrainians look like they are probing for weaknesses.

                  Kyiv has not formally announced the start of operations. But on Tuesday, Ukraine said the Russians had blown up a dam on the Dnipro River, potentially imperiling residents and the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
                  It's all fun and games until Darth Vader comes.

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                  • Re: Ukraine

                    Originally posted by Andrew Craig-Bennett
                    The Nova Khakova dam has been blown up by Russian forces.
                    Flooding out the troops on the southern bank. How long will that flooding last I wonder? Few days?
                    Feels like a nervous reaction.
                    It's all fun and games until Darth Vader comes.

                    Comment


                    • Re: Ukraine

                      Originally posted by Paul G.
                      .... I do not believe that any amount of western intervention will defeat Russia ....
                      Defeating Russia means not letting Russia defeat Ukraine. THAT is very possible with western aid. If Russia is so exhausted that it cannot sustain its offensive in Ukraine and must back off - that is what Ukrainian victory looks like.

                      All Ukraine has to do is make being in Ukraine untenable for Russia.

                      You think that's not possible?
                      It's how the Taliban got rid of the Russians....
                      It's all fun and games until Darth Vader comes.

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                      • Re: Ukraine

                        The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, June 5.
                        Russian and Ukrainian officials are signaling the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. ISW offers no assessment of these signals at this time. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on June 5 that Ukrainian forces conducted a “large-scale o


                        Key Takeaways
                        • Russian and Ukrainian officials are signaling the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
                        • Ukrainian forces conducted limited successful offensives north and southwest of Bakhmut.
                        • The pro-Ukrainian all-Russian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) claimed that it continues to operate in a Russian border settlement in Belgorod Oblast as of June 5.
                        • Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov claimed that Chechen forces are ready to defend against raids in Belgorod Oblast, likely partially in order to keep his forces out of combat in Ukraine.
                        • The Russian Black Sea Fleet is attempting to mitigate complications with logistical support in occupied Crimea by shifting resources to mainland Russia.
                        • Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is continuing efforts to exacerbate the divide between the Wagner Group and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).
                        • Russian milbloggers responded to the video of Lieutenant Colonel Venevitin with concern, indicating that several prominent pro-war voices are becoming increasingly concerned over the ramifications of the Wagner-MoD divide.
                        • Russian forces reportedly conducted unsuccessful reconnaissance-in-force operations northeast of Kharkiv City and continued limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
                        • Russian forces continued limited offensive operations on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
                        • Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks in western Donetsk and eastern Zaporizhia oblasts and made further limited tactical gains.
                        • Ukrainian forces continue to target rear Russian positions throughout southern Ukraine.
                        • Iran has allegedly signed contracts with Russia for about $1.74 million in ammunition for Russia to use in Ukraine.
                        • Ukrainian sources and Belarusian sources indicated that Belarus has been involved in the forced deportation of Ukrainian children.

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                        • Re: Ukraine

                          Watch: Water gushes through damaged Ukraine dam https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65818715

                          I’m reading suggestions that the dam may have failed due to abnormal height of water and lack of maintenance.
                          IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

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                          • Re: Ukraine

                            Originally posted by Andrew Craig-Bennett
                            The Nova Khakova dam has been blown up by Russian forces.
                            Remind me again where the North Crimean Canal starts. The one that Ukraine blocked, to starve Crimea of water.

                            Video, a bit longer than the BBC one.



                            Pete
                            The Ignore feature, lowering blood pressure since 1862. Ahhhhhhh.

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                            • Re: Ukraine

                              At this stage, I don't believe the narrative from either side, I've heard that the Russians blew it up, and I heard that the Ukrainians did as well. Perhaps it failed due to lack of maintenance et cetera, but it just seems coincidental. Eventually someone will claim responsibility and its incredibly shortsighted to destroy civilian infrastructure whoever did it.
                              whatever rocks your boat

                              Comment


                              • Re: Ukraine

                                Originally posted by epoxyboy


                                Just above the dam on the east (Russian) side you can see a concrete breakwater - that provides the supply to the canal to Crimea just behind the buildings on the dam upper right.

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