Ukraine

[dutchpp]

Re: Ukraine

The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, June 3.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-3-2023

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian officials continue to signal that Ukrainian forces are prepared to start counteroffensive operations.
• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin escalated his feud with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), likely hoping to draw criticism back to the Russian military leadership and downplay his ongoing conflict with Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov. Prigozhin’s flamboyant allegations are also likely an attempt to retain his heightened initiative within the Russian information space following the capture of Bakhmut.
• Prigozhin seized on general Russian discontent with security on the Belgorod Oblast border to threaten that Wagner Group forces may operate in Russian territory without approval from the Russian military command.
• A Russian Duma Deputy stated during a public forum on June 1 that Russia has failed to accomplish any of its articulated goals for the “special military operation” in Ukraine.
• Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove line and northwest and south of Kreminna.
• Regular Russian forces have likely largely relieved Wagner Group forces in Bakhmut amid a low offensive tempo in the area as of June 3.
• Russian forces focused offensive operations on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line near Marinka.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued limited ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian forces continued efforts to establish defensive positions in Kherson Oblast.
• The Russian military leadership is attempting to create and staff new military formations.
• Likely Ukrainian partisans assassinated a Russian collaborator in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.

[skuthorp]

Re: Ukraine

Point 2,3,4. Very interesting………….

[heimlaga]

Re: Ukraine

You should know that the US blocked ongoing negotiations a year ago.

The hyper-power gets to decide when the killing ends.

Blinken could have declared that the US supports the decisions that Ukraine makes about its future.

But he did not do that, did he ??

Wait...... a year ago that was not the case. Changing history in retrospect without disclosing any proofs is a classic part of Kremlin propaganda going at least back to the time of czar Nikolaj more than a hundred years ago. That is the sort of things that has been spilling over our border for a full century now and we in Finland usually know it when we see it.
Russia demanded what in practice would have been a surrender of all Ukrainan troops and a withdrawal of all western support as a condition which had to be fullfilled by Ukraine before entering into any sort of negotiations. They also declared that the negotiated peace must include the removal of the democratically elected government of Ukraine to be replaced by Kremlin apponted puppets. They did not promise to halt the invasion and withhold future Russian offensives after the surrender while the negotiations were to take part.

It is impossible to negotiate under such conditions. The democratically elected Ukrainan government understood it and refused. The western powers understood the point and supported the decision. That was what happened in real time. Neither you nor the Kremlin propagandists can go back and change that.

By the way Stalin used exactly the same tactic when setting off his ill fated invasion of Finland in 1939. I have copies of the original papers. Apparently Putin has copies too and decided to follow the old plan step by step.

[epoxyboy]

Re: Ukraine

^And then then it became apparent what had happened in Bucha, at which point Ukraine walked away.

[ERGR]

Re: Ukraine

Battles in the Russian oblast Belgorod continues.
”In the area of Novaya Tavolzhanka there are active battles. Putin’s troops continue to cover houses with civilians with heavy artillery. We urge the locals not to leave their shelters – The Freedom of Russia Legion reports.”

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1665261946407452672

Also, Russia has come up with the bright idea to shell their own civilian population with incendiary bombs. Is it a war crime when you do it to your own population?

https://twitter.com/thedeaddistrict/status/1665222242786062336?s=46&t=yEFHa6rQ6WOGQg018mXG0g

[ERGR]

Re: Ukraine

More from Belgorod:
“It seems that Russians don’t really mind what to loot, whether Ukrainian towns and villages, or their own city of Shebekino, as long as they have an opportunity to not get caught.”
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...78434887581698

[ERGR]

Re: Ukraine

The Russian population wants the front to be in Ukraine so they won't be disturbed by war noise. My sympathy is limited.

“Russian girl in Shebekhino, Belgorod oblast doesn’t like the fact that Russia’s attack on Ukraine brought the war to her peaceful town and begs Russia to “push the frontlines farther”. She just wants to “live normally”.”
https://twitter.com/LenerdoDicrapio/...10763961511936

[Peerie Maa]

Re: Ukraine

Wait...... a year ago that was not the case. Changing history in retrospect without disclosing any proofs is a classic part of Kremlin propaganda going at least back to the time of czar Nikolaj more than a hundred years ago. That is the sort of things that has been spilling over our border for a full century now and we in Finland usually know it when we see it.
Russia demanded what in practice would have been a surrender of all Ukrainan troops and a withdrawal of all western support as a condition which had to be fullfilled by Ukraine before entering into any sort of negotiations. They also declared that the negotiated peace must include the removal of the democratically elected government of Ukraine to be replaced by Kremlin apponted puppets. They did not promise to halt the invasion and withhold future Russian offensives after the surrender while the negotiations were to take part.

It is impossible to negotiate under such conditions. The democratically elected Ukrainan government understood it and refused. The western powers understood the point and supported the decision. That was what happened in real time. Neither you nor the Kremlin propagandists can go back and change that.

By the way Stalin used exactly the same tactic when setting off his ill fated invasion of Finland in 1939. I have copies of the original papers. Apparently Putin has copies too and decided to follow the old plan step by step.

An extent rebuttal.
Unfortunately, you are addressing someone whose mind is as tight closed as a duck's cloaca in winter.

[ERGR]

Re: Ukraine

As could be expected, sooner or later the Ukraine plan for the coming offensive wold leak. The damage is already done so here it is:
FxxtBnLXsAEVWpE.jpg
Unfortunately, the Russians will now be able to prepare the defence.
/Erik

[Peerie Maa]

Re: Ukraine

That does not look credible.
Leaks like that remind me of the deceptions that conned the German generals before the Normandy Landings.

[ERGR]

Re: Ukraine

That plan is a good summary of all the possibilities that have been discussed by all the pro Ukraine armchair generals on the internet. Generally, the idea for a successful offensive is to have the Russians prepare for all those possibilities, which means spreading too thin. We know now that Russia has depleted the defence of the border to Russia proper in favour of more troops in Donbass, which may have the consequence that they might (at least temporarily) lose Belgorod, which is a logistic hub.

The real offensive will probably commence with a few of the arrows, of which only one or two will be pursued.

[Peerie Maa]

Re: Ukraine

Pretty well what I said

https://www.iwm.org.uk/history/d-days-parachuting-dummies-and-inflatable-tanks

[Gerarddm]

Re: Ukraine

Once again, I wonder that Prigozhin is still alive, much less yapping. Given the draconian punishments for even looking cross-eyed at the war in Russia, that he and the more strident military bloggers can eviscerate the Russian armed forces and Putin's strategy is simply remarkable. It highlights a real weakness of Putin. When nobody fears a bully anymore, that bully becomes impotent.

[heimlaga]

Re: Ukraine

Once again, I wonder that Prigozhin is still alive, much less yapping. Given the draconian punishments for even looking cross-eyed at the war in Russia, that he and the more strident military bloggers can eviscerate the Russian armed forces and Putin's strategy is simply remarkable. It highlights a real weakness of Putin. When nobody fears a bully anymore, that bully becomes impotent.

I rekon that Putin wants to come trough as the moderate and peaceful alternative for the Russian people. Simply because so many Russians oppose the war. To be able to do that he needs to give the even more extreme militants a possibility to make themselves heard. So that everybody else will flock around Putin.
I case the extreme militants gain support Putin will only get what he really wants but doesn't dare to ask for.
In any case he will not loose.

That is how the Putin gang and their party has worked for more than a decade.

[heimlaga]

Re: Ukraine

Olaf Scholz, the German bunderkanzler put things straigh in front of around 100 peace activists and Putinists.

I have never before heard him speak in this style. He has always bee polite and politically correct while giving well prepared speeches. Apparently enough is enough and now he has had enough. Well done herr Scholz.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dLkmkSffFo