Ukraine

[gypsie]

Re: Ukraine

That will be 2024.

12 months away even more likely.
Or winter freeze 2023...?

I'm playing armchair general here and not reveling in it. The logic of attacking now, when you know you will be waaaay stronger in the not too distant future seems flawed.

There's the psychological impact on Russian troops waiting for a major assault day after day, it must be exhausting. Eventually they lull into exhausted complacency, and bang!

There's not just the M1's and F-16's, there's also the million rounds of 155mm from the EU, training on all those complex artillery and anti aircraft systems, and the integration of combined arms doctrine. The continued exhaustion of Russian smart weapons and the chipping away at its hardware. In 9 moths time Ukraine could be a well trained, energised, well resourced, bonafide NATO army in every respect - in 9 months Russia will be very tired indeed.

Just ruminating.

[dutchpp]

Re: Ukraine

The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, May 30.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-30-2023

Key Takeaways

• Russia claimed that Ukraine conducted a series of drone strikes against Moscow on May 30 as Russia again targeted Ukraine with Iranian-made Shahed drones.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted to downplay the drone attack on Moscow to avoid exposing the limited options he has to retaliate against Ukraine.
• The drone attack on Moscow generated varied responses from the Russian information space.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is likely attempting to conceal the high Russian losses in Ukraine by artificially inflating Ukrainian casualties in the war.
• EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell stated that Russia will not enter negotiations while trying to win the war.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and northwest of Svatove, and Russian sources claimed that Russian forces conducted a ground attack south of Kreminna.
• The tempo of Russian and Ukrainian offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction remains low as of May 30.
• Russian forces made marginal advances amid continued ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks along the southern axis.
• Russian officials are establishing domestic veteran support programs which likely aim to advertise the perks of military service in Russia.
• Russian occupation officials continue to deport Ukrainian children to Russia under the guise of providing pediatric healthcare.

[heimlaga]

Re: Ukraine

BBC writes abut abduction of Ukrainan children in occupied territories.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65641304

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Re: Ukraine

BBC writes abut abduction of Ukrainan children in occupied territories.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65641304

A horrible thing to read.

[skuthorp]

Re: Ukraine

I wonder if all this will be swept under the rug again, in the name of political convenience?.

[WX]

Re: Ukraine

[dutchpp]

Re: Ukraine

The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, May 31.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-31-2023

Key Takeaways

• The Russian military command has likely ordered Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov’s forces to begin offensive operations in Ukraine following the withdrawal of Wagner Group forces from Bakhmut.
• The claimed return of Chechen forces to offensive operations would break Kadyrovites from a nearly yearlong hiatus from participating in high-intensity combat operations.
• The Kremlin may be attempting to reintroduce Kadyrovites as the main offensive force following the culmination of Wagner forces and their withdrawal from the frontlines.
• The Kremlin may also be attempting to sever Kadyrov’s relationship with Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and re-emphasize federal authority over Chechen forces.
• The official Russian responses to recent attacks against Russia remain likely insufficient to satisfy the Russian ultranationalist information space’s desire for escalation in the war.
• Russian forces conducted ground attacks northwest of Svatove and south of Kreminna.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks around Bakhmut and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Russian forces continue to concentrate in southern Ukraine.
• The Russian State Duma appears to be considering measures to legalize the military recruitment of current or formerly incarcerated Russian men.
• Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada Human Rights Commissioner Dmytro Lyubinets announced that Ukraine has a new avenue to repatriate Ukrainian children abducted to Russia.

[C. Ross]

Re: Ukraine

I can't believe they got to occupied Crimea in the middle of a war zone except through Russia. And I doubt very much that they weren't accompanied by "tour guides" . . . cough . . . minders. So, not surprising they saw youth singing patriotic songs around monuments. Standard operating protocol and were fed the Putin line.

Read the Twitter feed of Rick Sterling, one of the co-authors. They traveled through St Petersburg to Moscow to Crimea. He is not anti-war, he is pro-Putin, pro-Assad, pro-Ortega, pro-Tucker Carlson, pro-Tulsi Gabbard. It’s quite a stew of views.

[Keith Wilson]

Re: Ukraine

Read the Twitter feed of Rick Sterling, one of the co-authors. They traveled through St Petersburg to Moscow to Crimea. He is not anti-war, he is pro-Putin, pro-Assad, pro-Ortega, pro-Tucker Carlson, pro-Tulsi Gabbard. It’s quite a stew of views.

Sounds like quite the guy, But if it's all the same, I'll rely on your summary rather than reading his stuff; I already take pills for my blood pressure, and a spasm of rage at human idiocy won't do it any good.

[dutchpp]

Re: Ukraine

Mr. Rick Sterling is a moron who is supporting this:
kleinkind.jpg
A Ukrainian grandfather is guarding his 9 year old grandchild, she was killed by a Russian missile attack on Kyiv 2 hours ago.

Mr Sterling should be arrested and prosecuted as an accomplice for war crimes against children.

[gypsie]

Re: Ukraine

OMG those poor people.
Russia cannot be allowed to forget the pain they have caused.

[dutchpp]

Re: Ukraine

The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, June 1.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-1-2023

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces conducted another series of missile strikes on Ukraine overnight on May 31 to June 1 and during the day on June 1.
• Elements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) reportedly conducted another raid into Belgorod Oblast on June 1.
• Russian officials and milbloggers’ responses to the limited raid in Belgorod Oblast are indicative of a continued heightened anxiety within the Russian information space regarding the war in Ukraine.
• Chechen commanders and officials launched a concerted attack on Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin on June 1 in a likely attempt to undermine Prigozhin’s appeal.
• Prigozhin responded to the attacks claiming that he will continue to voice his opinions until Russian MoD officials are punished for their mistakes in planning the invasion of Ukraine
• Chechen attacks on Prigozhin’s character may be a part of the Kremlin’s efforts to discredit and undermine Prigozhin as his forces withdraw from the frontlines.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations northeast of Kupyansk and northwest of Svatove.
• The tempo of Russian and Ukrainian offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction remains low as of June 1, and Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks along the southern axis.
• The Russian State Duma rejected a draft law that would have granted mobilization exemptions to candidates and doctors of the science.
• Russian occupation authorities announced that regional elections in occupied territories will take place on September 10.
• Ukrainian Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin announced on May 31 that Ukraine is investigating over 2,900 crimes against children committed by Russian forces.

[sandtown]

Re: Ukraine

Read the Twitter feed of Rick Sterling, one of the co-authors. They traveled through St Petersburg to Moscow to Crimea. He is not anti-war, he is pro-Putin, pro-Assad, pro-Ortega, pro-Tucker Carlson, pro-Tulsi Gabbard. It’s quite a stew of views.

Oh yeah, knock the stuffing out of that messenger !!

And don't forget that other guy too !! . . . you know, that commie prof that De Satin has lined up !!!

Kovalik ?? Yeah, that Univ of Pitt law school guy . . . .

Total evilosity !!

[Nicholas Carey]

Mr. Rick Sterling is a moron who is supporting this:
[ATTACH=CONFIG]137756[/ATTACH]
A Ukrainian grandfather is guarding his 9 year old grandchild, she was killed by a Russian missile attack on Kyiv 2 hours ago.

Mr Sterling should be arrested and prosecuted as an accomplice for war crimes against children.

That is a powerful photo.

[skuthorp]

Re: Ukraine

I would have thought that Kadyrov and Wagner had common interests in this? Namely weakening Putins hold? Putin's interests are the reduction of both their forces lest they become a threat.

Any substance to this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tKmGiJKt6bw