Ukraine

[JayInOz]

Re: Ukraine

Russia's Kalashnikov company has apparently gone into full on production of drones.

[dutchpp]

Re: Ukraine

The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, May 28.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-28-2023

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces conducted the largest Shahed drone strike against Ukraine since the start of the war overnight on May 27-28.
• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that the Russian relief in place operation in Bakhmut may continue past his initial June 1 deadline and last until June 5.
• The tempo of Russian operations around Bakhmut remains notably low.
• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin appears to have again indirectly undermined Russian President Vladimir Putin’s authority and regime.
• Prigozhin may be attacking Putin for failing to give Prigozhin some promised reward for seizing Bakhmut.
• The Wagner Group held a reportedly illegal pro-Wagner rally in Yekaterinburg on May 28 despite the reported banning of the rally by Yekaterinburg authorities.
• Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov criticized former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin on May 27.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces conducted limited offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front.
• Russian forces continued to fire on areas in Southern Ukraine.
• The UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) asserted that Russia is now demanding that Russian citizens make additional sacrifices to support the war effort.
• Russian occupation officials continue to forcibly deport Ukrainian children to Russia under the guise of summer camps.

[skuthorp]

Re: Ukraine

"Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin appears to have again indirectly undermined Russian President Vladimir Putin’s authority and regime."

Who do you reckon will fall out of a window or have an umbrella accident first?

[JayInOz]

Re: Ukraine

There was new footage yesterday of Prigozhin addressing his Wagner fighters. A total of maybe twenty soldiers. If it was designed to impress I reckon it failed.

[ERGR]

Re: Ukraine

It's still bubbling in the temporarily occupied Bilhorod People's Republic (former Russian Belgorod Oblast). Insufficiently camouflaged 152 mm Russian artillery was destroyed.

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1663088467365048320

There's been more rumors of Ukraine/Free Russian activities in the Bilhorod region and in the Kursk oblast. These areas don't seem to be particularly well defended by the RU Army and the Ukraine interest is likely to be concentrated on anything that's part of the RU war effort. The Free Russians may have their own goals. My guess is that we don't hear much because RU mostly ignores these incursions since they don't have the resources to to much about them anyway, and the Ukraine/Free Russian fighters don't remain static long enough for Russia to use air strikes or their dwindling number of missiles on them.
/Erik

[skuthorp]

Re: Ukraine

A war of attrition using classic partisan guerrilla tactics. Small, unpredictable actions by scattered groups creating distractions from the main game and tying up resources.
Having such Russian nationality groups on their side of the border means that Putin has a domestic problem rather than Ukranian incursions to deal with.

[gypsie]

Re: Ukraine

Just putting out a thought; Ukraine won't counter attack until they have the F-16's and M1's in country.

[dutchpp]

Re: Ukraine

The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, May 29.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-29-2023

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces conducted another series of strikes against Ukraine with cruise missiles and Iranian-made drones overnight on May 28 to 29 and during the day on May 29.
• Russia deployed more S-400 air defense systems (probably at least a battery) to Belarus on May 28.
• Former Russian Deputy Minister of Defense for Logistics Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev confirmed that he is now operating as deputy commander of the Wagner Group.
• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin denied former Russian officer Igor Girkin’s May 27 accusation that Prigozhin could stage a military coup against the Kremlin by arguing that Wagner lacks the personnel needed to start a coup.
• Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning denied a Wall Street Journal report that Chinese Special Representative for Eurasian Affairs Li Hui urged European officials to end the conflict in Ukraine before it escalates.
• Russian authorities continue to forcefully integrate dioceses of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (UOC MP) in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast into the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) demonstrating the integral connection of the ROC with the Russian state.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• The tempo of Russian offensive operations in and around Bakhmut remains notably low.
• Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front, particularly focusing on Marinka.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast and are expanding fortifications in Mariupol.
• Russian sources claimed that Russian forces repelled limited Ukrainian reconnaissance in force operations in Zaporizhia Oblast.
• The Russian military command appears to be introducing doctrinal organization to some of its irregular formations.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law on May 29 that will further strengthen the martial law regime in occupied areas of Ukraine.
• Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is likely not hospitalized as of May 29.

[birlinn]

Re: Ukraine

Drones hit Moscow.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-65751650

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Re: Ukraine

Just putting out a thought; Ukraine won't counter attack until they have the F-16's and M1's in country.

That will be 2024.

[skuthorp]

Re: Ukraine

Its possible that the threat is more effective against Russian troops on the ground than an actual attack. Raising the stress level so that when one actually comes the effect is amplified.
Psych. warfare.
My grandfather served with troops from Newfoundland in WW1, many were from tribal backgrounds. He said that what a night raid was planned they would drum on the sides of the trench and the lights would co up and machine guns fire, and they did it again and again, and when the raid really was on the recactions were slow and muted.

[WX]

Re: Ukraine

Its possible that the threat is more effective against Russian troops on the ground than an actual attack. Raising the stress level so that when one actually comes the effect is amplified.
Psych. warfare.
My grandfather served with troops from Newfoundland in WW1, many were from tribal backgrounds. He said that what a night raid was planned they would drum on the sides of the trench and the lights would co up and machine guns fire, and they did it again and again, and when the raid really was on the recactions were slow and muted.

They suffered horrendous casualties in one particular assault from memory.

[Johan R]

Re: Ukraine

Drones hit Moscow.

A strange move since Zelensky has been on the global stage with an arrest warrent for Putin and his war crime of "targeting civilians".

[skuthorp]

Re: Ukraine

I doubt the drones came from Ukraine…… Maybe Russian dissenters………. drones are cheap and can be refitted.

[Peerie Maa]

Re: Ukraine

There was talk of MQ-1C attack drones for Ukraine. They could reach Moscow, but as yet it has not been agreed that they will be deployed in Ukraine.

While several Ukrainian drones have failed to reach Moscow, experts maintain that using these “primitive” drones remains a cost-effective strategy to challenge Russian air defenses, Marko Syrovoi writes at LIGA.net. Military expert Oleksiy Katkov explains that these drones can be produced inexpensively, forcing Russians to expend costly missiles for their interception: “for the destruction of primitive drones at a conditional $10,000, the Russians will spend missiles worth hundreds of thousands.”However, the main thing that stands in the way of these drones hitting targets in the Russian capital is Ukraine’s lack of modern elevation maps.
Around Moscow, a dense air defense system has been built, and the best way to penetrate it is to fly as low as possible to avoid being detected by Russian radar stations, explains Katkov. Without modern digital elevation maps, drones risk colliding with newly constructed high-voltage towers or other recently built tall structures. Countries within NATO and those with significant satellite capabilities have access to these maps, which include data on terrain features, artificial obstacles, and can be updated annually or every few years to account for changes in the landscape. Lacking such maps, Ukrainian drones are forced to fly higher, making them more vulnerable to detection and destruction.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/04/...-reach-moscow/
So a big model airline without any weapons can be a valuable military asset.