Ukraine

[sandtown]

Re: Ukraine

VFP are naive fools. .

And you are a warmongering, bloodthirsty fascist . . .

See how name calling contributes so much to reasoned discussion ??

[epoxyboy]

Re: Ukraine

In context of NATO, Belarus makes almost no sense since there's nothing it achieves that can't be already achieved with Königsberg. But, remember that 1) the long-term plan for neostalinists is to fully incorporate Belarus back into moscowland, and bat'ka isn't getting any younger 2) with airstrikes, reaching target within 40 or just 20 minutes is a huge difference 3) heightened military presence at the mini-baddies land means that Ukraine is forced to position more of their troops to the north-west, leaving less troops available for south-east counteroffensive.

1) That does at least dovetail with Rumars proposition that the nukes provide Russia the perfect excuse to invade to secure them when the wheels fall off.

2) A Russian aircraft can over fly Belarus en route to any launch point required. The fact that it took off in Russia only affects aircraft loiter time, not missile flight time.

3) This is about tactical nuclear warheads in Belarus, not Russian troop build-up. It would be completely pointless Ukraine diverting troops to the border to counter that threat - in fact that would create a juicy target.
If there is a corresponding Russian troop build-up, that's another story, but I'm not aware of any reports that this is happening.

Pete

[WX]

Re: Ukraine

[dutchpp]

Re: Ukraine

The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, May 26.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-26-2023

Key Takeaways

• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that Wagner forces continue to hand over positions in Bakhmut to the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and withdraw from the city.
• Ukrainian sources claim that Wagner forces are still present in Bakhmut and that the tempo of Russian offensive operations around the city continues to decrease.
• Continued successful limited Ukrainian counterattacks on Bakhmut’s flanks may complicate the Russian relief in place operation in Bakhmut.
• Russian forces conducted a large-scale missile and drone strike across Ukraine on May 25 and 26.
• The Kremlin is likely reviving its information campaign to coerce the West into forcing Ukraine to accept concessions and negotiate on terms favorable to Russia.
• The Wagner Group reportedly exchanged 106 Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) for an unspecified number of Russian POWs on May 25, suggesting that Wagner may have conducted the exchange independently of the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).
• Russian forces continued limited offensive operations northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk front.
• Russian forces continued to target Ukrainian positions in southern Ukraine.
• Russian officials are continuing to form new volunteer formations to defend Russian regions that border Ukraine.
• Russian occupation officials continuing attempts to erase Ukrainian cultural heritage by looting Ukrainian artifacts.

[Lugs]

Re: Ukraine

Quite an interesting article by Shankar Narayan:

https://shankar20.medium.com/europe-...t-7bcb0e4b2ab0

Interesting article, but his arithmetic just doesn't add up.

[skuthorp]

Re: Ukraine

"The west had a gaping hole. Their defense industrial base was not geared up to handle a large war and when one came knocking, they did not have an answer. They started using up the reserves and somewhere early this year, they realized if this gap is left unaddressed it will only be a matter of time before they run out of ammunition."

Russia did NATO a favour by invading Ukraine. If Ukraine had collapsed in a week as Russia, and everyone else anticipated, Russia may not have stopped and Latvia, Estonia et al may have been the battleground. Indeed given some momentum would they have stopped there? Once occupied it would need a major effort to remove the invader, and Europe was not ready.

[Peerie Maa]

Re: Ukraine

"The west had a gaping hole. Their defense industrial base was not geared up to handle a large war and when one came knocking, they did not have an answer. They started using up the reserves and somewhere early this year, they realized if this gap is left unaddressed it will only be a matter of time before they run out of ammunition."

Russia did NATO a favour by invading Ukraine. If Ukraine had collapsed in a week as Russia, and everyone else anticipated, Russia may not have stopped and Latvia, Estonia et al may have been the battleground. Indeed given some momentum would they have stopped there? Once occupied it would need a major effort to remove the invader, and Europe was not ready.

It happened after both World Wars.

Every one slaggs off Chamberlain with his piece of paper "Peace in our Time", but he did give us time to start to rearm.

[WX]

Re: Ukraine

It happened after both World Wars.

Every one slaggs off Chamberlain with his piece of paper "Peace in our Time", but he did give us time to start to rearm.

He did everything in his power, to not go to war. However, once he realised it was inevitable he did push for rearmament.
I've read 4 of Churchill"s WW2 history.

[Peerie Maa]

Re: Ukraine

Ukraine is ready to launch its long-expected counter-offensive against Russian forces, one of the country's most senior security officials has told the BBC.
Oleksiy Danilov would not name a date but said an assault to retake territory from President Vladimir Putin's occupying forces could begin "tomorrow, the day after tomorrow or in a week".
He warned that Ukraine's government had "no right to make a mistake" on the decision because this was an "historic opportunity" that "we cannot lose".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-65725004

[Edward Pearson]

Re: Ukraine

All Russia is capable of is lobbing artillery at high rates and standing back before inhabiting the rubble. And they could only do that when they start with a stockpile. In a war with NATO there supply lines wouldn’t enable that. Neither would there tanks be capable of attacks by apache’s etc. It would be over in days.

The west has decided to do this without boots on the ground, or in the air. Its only donated a small proportion of un needed equipment while maintaining nato stocks. No we dont have millions of spare artillery munitions, but we wouldn’t need it. By standing off, its flattering Russia as they can just train up munitions and lob artillery at will. That woukd not be the case with a war with NATO. Putin knows it and knew it, which is why he was waving his nuclear weapons around at the start as he had to keep nato out to have any chance.

Russias economy isn’t strong. Without European money he’s losing 40 billion a month and can’t carry on a war into next year. Even if he had a constant supply of cash, he cant supply ammo fast enough for the lobbing artillery approach for a long war either. In carrying out this war, Russia has made the USA millitary look like angels and pro’s.

Europe’s increasing basic artillery shell production but only because of this wars perculiar circumstances. It seems we can defeat Russia with economic sanctions, a few bits of equipment and Ukranian fighting spirit. Russia will withdraw its entire army. No way those Russians are going to sit there unpaid. Imagine invading Iraq or Afghanistan only to find they were being equipped with some NATO stuff. How long would we have stayed? Less than we did.

[gypsie]

Re: Ukraine

You make a good point Edward.

it's kind of begs the question why would Ukraine counter attack? Perhaps to prevent the war stalemating..?
I suppose Russia will only be as depleted as you say if it is kept engaged.

Putin must know this. He basically has no end game. He's lost his queen and is down to few pawns.
His absolute best option is to withdraw.

What's the rationale for him not even seeking a ceasefire? Ukraine could hardly turn down that offer. Except if they get momentum in a counterattack, then they could keep pushing. More reason for Putin to start talks.

I suppose sacrificing 200k soldiers means he's all in? But all in would include nukes. So why not seek a ceasefire?
All that's left is pride.
So much death and destruction for his pride.

[birlinn]

Re: Ukraine

You make a good point Edward.

it's kind of begs the question why would Ukraine counter attack? Perhaps to prevent the war stalemating..?
I suppose Russia will only be as depleted as you say if it is kept engaged.

Putin must know this. He basically has no end game. He's lost his queen and is down to few pawns.
His absolute best option is to withdraw.

What's the rationale for him not even seeking a ceasefire? Ukraine could hardly turn down that offer. Except if they get momentum in a counterattack, then they could keep pushing. More reason for Putin to start talks.

I suppose sacrificing 200k soldiers means he's all in? But all in would include nukes. So why not seek a ceasefire?
All that's left is pride.
So much death and destruction for his pride.

Just like a certain Austrian house painter....

[skuthorp]

Re: Ukraine

#12296
"It would be over in days"

I think they said that about WW1, and Iraq and others, (you know, welcomed with flowers) etc, etc, etc…………… Dangerous thing to say, Russia is too big to conquer………...

[sandtown]

Re: Ukraine

Additional analysis from the Putin-loving Rooskie Bot naive fools . .

(quite similar to that of Vets For Peace and myself)

https://archive.is/vp5BL

[birlinn]

Re: Ukraine

Can you really see Putin willing to compromise? His take is that Ukraine is part of Russia, and is not a separate sovereign state. How do you fix that?
Zelensky realistically may have to eventually concede Crimea, but I can't see Ukraine ever trusting Russia in negotiations.