Ukraine

[gypsie]

Re: Ukraine

Britain is going to supply longer range air launched cruise missiles to Ukraine:

UK confirms supply of Storm Shadow long-range missiles in Ukraine https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65558070

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Shadow

Its air launched, i.e. it’s a stand off weapon, basically a cruise missile. Anglo-French. Originally developed as a runway interdiction weapon after we lost too many Tornadoes doing it the hard way. Range up to 350 miles but the export version (which has been sold to several places) is 155 miles.

They opened the flood gates for tank - now for longer range missiles.
The Dutch might do the same with F-16's.

I just takes someone to take the step.....

[gypsie]

Re: Ukraine

It's up to Ukraine if they want to cede Crimea. Crimea is not US territory or NATO territory. Speaking for Russia's neighbours, I'd say that the most important thing is to not reward Russian land grabbing, but instead enforce a world order where might doesn't make right. Screw the consequences. Appeasing Russia isn't a solution.
/Erik

I think NATO has a very real interest in who occupies Crimea.

If Ukraine doesn't cede, but also doesn't attack, Russia will have to keep Crimea heavily garrisoned. This will break the bank eventually. This might also be to NATO's advantage.

Russia without a warm water port, or, Russia economically incapable of aggression. Different means, same ends.

[Lew Barrett]

Re: Ukraine

Bachmut will become encircled. Stalingrad.

It's still a little too soon to be assured of the outcome, but if the Ukrainians are able to complete and encirclement, the analogy will be perfect to the last detail. It always looked and felt like Stalingrad anyway, even without a potential victory for the Ukrainians. We've been assured Bakhmut is a city without great strategic value, like Stalingrad. Yet it's become a charnel house for armies. The fight became self perpetuating and symbolic, house to house, room to room. The defending army has been beaten back to barely holding 10% of the city, clinging to its sole main supply line (for Stalingrad the river landing was key, for Bakhmut it's The Road of Life). In the midst of despair there then breaks through a ray of light and hope. The analogies don't stop there.

The similarities and coincidences are startling and obvious but still well worth pondering. What if the Ukrainians can encircle the Wagners and break through the weaker regular RF brigades (according to Pregozhin) on the flanks. That would be like breaking through the Romanian and Italian flanking lines surrounding Stalingrad. Since this has always been billed as a battle of wills, breaking the Russians in Bakhmut will have a devastating effect on whatever is left of Russian military morale. It will be a loss that will be impossible to hide from the population, and Pregozhin is doing his level best to make sure everybody knows.


Anthem of Bakhmut

[JayInOz]

Re: Ukraine

The Ukrainians have used dryer weather and American fighting vehicles to push the Russians back as far as two miles near Bakhmut. The Russians broke and ran- the Wagners were the first to turn tail. One report claims that Russia has lost six hundred dead in the last twenty four hours. JayInOz

[dutchpp]

Re: Ukraine

The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, May 11.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-11-2023

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian forces likely broke through some Russian lines in localized counterattacks near Bakhmut, prompting responses from Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).
• The deployment of low-quality Russian forces on the flanks around Bakhmut suggests that the Russian MoD has largely abandoned the aim of encircling a significant number of Ukrainian forces there.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukraine needs more time to launch a counteroffensive because it is waiting for the delivery of promised military aid.
• Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov contradicted the pre-war Kremlin justifications for the war by asserting that the Russian “special military operation” began as “a conflict between Russia and Ukraine.”
• Unnamed Kremlin sources claimed that Wagner Group Yevgeny Prigozhin’s recent rhetoric is “seriously disturbing the top leadership” of Russia.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) denied Ukrainian and US reports that a Patriot missile defense system shot down a Kinzhal missile on the night of May 4.
• Russian occupation authorities seized the cathedral of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine in Simferopol as oppression of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church continues in Russian-occupied Crimea.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly continued to conduct localized counterattacks around Bakhmut.
• Russian forces targeted Ukrainian positions west of Hulyaipole and in Kherson Oblast.
• Russia needs to produce over 29 million shells per year to satisfy Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s demands for Wagner to use 80,000 shells per day – 13 times more than Russia’s pre-invasion annual production rate.
• Russian officials continue to threaten and seek to manipulate international humanitarian efforts by threatening to dissolve the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which is set to expire on May 18.

The Bakhmut map of May 11;
Bakhmut.jpg

[epoxyboy]

Re: Ukraine

A couple from Donetsk speaking on their personal experiences of the events of 2014. They paint a rather different picture from our absent vets for peace comrade.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineConflict/comments/13f9suq/a_ukrainian_family_from_now_temporarily_occupied/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

Pete

[gypsie]

Re: Ukraine

Le Monde reporting the British long range missiles are in country.

Didn't hang about hey?!

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Re: Ukraine

About a month ago the British Government issued an invitation to tender for new medium range missiles.

We had “700-1,000” Storm Shadows in stock. so I hope the plan is to send plenty.

Wonder if Ben Wallace, the Minister of Defence and the only Tory I approve of, can find some more Challenger IIs and some more AS90s?

[JimD]

Re: Ukraine

Putin has promised reinforcements to Bakhmut. That tank from the May 9 Moscow parade is on it's way and will be there in a matter of weeks, as soon as it's fitted with a gun that actually fires.

[johnw]

Re: Ukraine

Putin has promised reinforcements to Bakhmut. That tank from the May 9 Moscow parade is on it's way and will be there in a matter of weeks, as soon as it's fitted with a gun that actually fires.

If they can find one.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Re: Ukraine

This thread has improved no end in recent days.

Let’s remember that the Ukrainian Government imposes a 72 hour delay on news from the front (as indeed they should!) for very obvious reasons.

[Gerarddm]

Re: Ukraine

For some reason, I am getting articles from the Brit newspaper The Telegraph, which seems to lean strongly right. Anyway, an article a few days ago really dumped on the Storm Shadows ( as well as the Chally II, BTW ). The author says the real significance of the Storm Shadows is that it opens the gates for other countries to give longer range missiles to Ukraine. FWIW.

[dutchpp]

Re: Ukraine

The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, May 12.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-12-2023

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian forces have made gains northwest of Bakhmut in localized counterattacks as of May 12.
• Russian milbloggers and other prominent voices in the pro-war information space continue to respond to recent Ukrainian counterattacks with varying degrees of caution and anxiety.
• Ukrainian and American officials stated that Ukrainian forces have not yet started the planned counteroffensive.
• Senior Russian officials proposed a series of domestic repression and censorship measures during the St. Petersburg International Legal Forum on May 11.
• Former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin’s newly formed “Club of Angry Patriots” held a press conference on May 12 to discuss its discontent with the current Russian conduct of the war in Ukraine.
• U.S. Ambassador to South Africa Reuben Brigety accused South Africa of loading a Russian ship with ammunition and weapons in December 2022, contradicting its proclaimed neutral stance on the war in Ukraine.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) attempted to distract from and assuage information space paranoia over a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive on the Kharkiv-Luhansk front.
• Russian forces continue limited ground attacks in and around Bakhmut.
• Russian sources continue to speculate about potential Ukrainian counteroffensive preparations in southern Ukraine.
• Russian forces continue to recruit convicts and establish volunteer battalions as a part of crypto-mobilization efforts.
• Senior Russian officials are claiming that they are taking active measures to return displaced and illegally deported Ukrainian civilians, including Ukrainian children, to occupied Ukraine.

The Bakhmut area May 12.
Bakhmut Battle Map Draft May 12,2023.jpg

[gypsie]

Re: Ukraine

Whether the offensive happens or not, my impression is it has been a very effective morale tool.
The Russians have been living under the spectre of it for months, watching advanced weaponry pour in. While at the same time they suffer horrendously for every meter against their own level of tech.
For Ukraine it's been a strong message of hope, 'don't give up'!

[skuthorp]

Re: Ukraine

Whether the offensive happens or not, my impression is it has been a very effective morale tool.
The Russians have been living under the spectre of it for months, watching advanced weaponry pour in. While at the same time they suffer horrendously for every meter against their own level of tech.
For Ukraine it's been a strong message of hope, 'don't give up'!

I wonder if that will mean that when push finally comes to shove the Russian soldiers will melt away? My grandfather who served on the front with soldiers from Newfoundland said that they would drum on the sides of the trench to make the enemy think there was a raid on. Several false alarms made them tardy when a real one came. I deliberately do not use the term 'army'.