Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics

[Nicholas Carey]

It's not really about statistics, though: this is about the Visual Display of Quantitative Information (one of the ways you "lie" with statistics.

From https://geopoliticaleconomy.com/2023...uis-fed-graph/

This is a chart from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, nominally showing military spending over time for China, Russia, the United Kingdom, India, Saudi Arabia, and the United States. The blue line is the United States, the red line is China. On the face of it, it looks like China is close to being on a par with the United States, doesn't it?

Look again.

There are two vertical axes show spending in billions of constant (2020) US dollars. The one on the left runs from $0b to $300b. The one on the right, from $400b to $1,000b.

All the countries save the USA are graphed according to the left scale; the USA alone is on the right. So right now, the USA is spending, per the chart, c. $950b and China c. $180b — something approaching 4x more than China.




If you scaled it properly, it would look something like this:





https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tD4P-vWWGLc

[JayInOz]

[QUOTE=Nicholas Carey; So right now, the USA is spending, per the chart, c. $950b and China c. $180b — something approaching 4x more than China.

As it should be

[wizbang 13]

Three thousand million dollars a day.
It’s obscene.

[skuthorp]

…………..and I wonder if it's being spent wisely and strategically……… or politically……….

[LeeG]

It’s defense! Of course with all that extra defense it’s easy to get offensive.

[David G]

Just addressing the 'graphics in aid of dishonesty' question... I doubt it. Sure, I can't be 100% sure, but people who read Fed reports won't be misled by that double vertial axis graph. I, myself, have used a similar dodge... strictly in aid of saving space in a report/paper. The audience for those was not confused in the slightest.

Of course, people who intend to mislead have a lot of tricks they can use... most of them far more subtle than this. If you want to know more about those tricks, to armor yourself...

https://www.amazon.com/How-Lie-Stati.../dp/0393310728

[Nicholas Carey]

[QUOTE=JayInOz;6797237][QUOTE=Nicholas Carey; So right now, the USA is spending, per the chart, c. $950b and China c. $180b — something approaching 4x more than China.

As it should be[/QUOTE]


That tax is a little hard on the US economy, though. Lots of better, more effective uses, like education, that would actually show a positive return on investment

Just addressing the 'graphics in aid of dishonesty' question... I doubt it. Sure, I can be sure, but people who read Fed reports won't be misled by that double vertial axis graph. I, myself, have used a similar dodge... strictly in aid of saving space in a report/paper. The audience for those was not confused in the slightest.

More like whoever had to put the PowerPoint deck together had to fit it on a single [landscape] slide.

Of course, people who intend to mislead have a lot of tricks they can use... most of them far more subtle than this. If you want to know more about those tricks, to armor yourself...

https://www.amazon.com/How-Lie-Stati.../dp/0393310728

I almost linked to that, along with Tufte's The Visual Display of Quantitative Information.

https://www.amazon.com/Visual-Displa.../dp/1930824130

https://www.edwardtufte.com/

Tufte, though, is all about conveying information effectively and accurately rather than obscuring it, even though the two are not unrelated.

[P.I. Stazzer-Newt]

Anyone with an interest in data visualisation should take the occasional look at Mona Chalabi.....

https://www.instagram.com/monachalabi/?hl=en

[AndyG]

I, myself, have used a similar dodge... strictly in aid of saving space in a report/paper. The audience for those was not confused in the slightest.

...and then imagine showing this graph to the former president? A man who could redirect hurricanes with a Sharpie.

Andy

[Garret]

Just addressing the 'graphics in aid of dishonesty' question... I doubt it. Sure, I can't be 100% sure, but people who read Fed reports won't be misled by that double vertial axis graph. I, myself, have used a similar dodge... strictly in aid of saving space in a report/paper. The audience for those was not confused in the slightest.

Of course, people who intend to mislead have a lot of tricks they can use... most of them far more subtle than this. If you want to know more about those tricks, to armor yourself...

https://www.amazon.com/How-Lie-Stati.../dp/0393310728

With the lack of education in this country? With the soundbite mentality of people taking a quick glance at things? There is no doubt in my mind that the chart was designed purposely to fool people.

[Boatbum]

What it does show is that their defense spending has increased 10 fold from 25 billion to over 250 billion (and it has been a steady growth for the past 20 years) while the US has reduced its spending by about 10%. If China's growth continues in the same linear manner they would be spending about as much at the US in about 15 years assuming the US stays relatively stagnant in its defense spending.

Most experts seem to feel that China will attempt to invade (unify) Taiwan withing the next 5 years. That would undoubtedly be a game changer with potential for a multination war. I can't help but wonder if there are any parallels between this and US thinking about possible war with Japan in the late 1930's

A recent US wargame estimated that if the US backed Taiwan in an invasion, that the invasion would be thwarted but with heavy losses on both sides. The USA was predicted to lose two carriers and one third of its entire naval fleet.

Not a pretty picture. Would an arms race impact China the same as it did Russia during the cold war, of would it just prompt them in increase their military spending even more?

All of this is going on while a Chinese spy balloon is floating across the US and China makes regular incursions into Taiwanese airspace while buzzing US ships and planes.

I'm usually more optimistic on a Friday

[David G]

With the lack of education in this country? With the soundbite mentality of people taking a quick glance at things? There is no doubt in my mind that the chart was designed purposely to fool people.

Published by the Federal Reserve... for the 'wonky' audience that actually reads such reports? Highly doubtful.

[stromborg]

Anyone with an interest in data visualisation should take the occasional look at Mona Chalabi.....

https://www.instagram.com/monachalabi/?hl=en

She does nice work, thanks for the tip!

[John Meachen]

I wonder how the stats would look if it were adjusted to represent the multiples of the average income in each of those countries that the charts represent.Maybe North Korea would take the top slot.I don't really have the interest to seek the numbers,but it does indicate how a distorting effect can be applied.