California Drought

[SaltyD from BC]

With the great rains of '23 I see a lot of the reservoirs are full pool, and others catching up in a hurry. I feel for those affected by slides and flooding and hope there isn't much more of that. But is this the beginning of the end of the multi year drought? Thoughts?

[Jim Bow]

The reservoirs have filled a bit, but it would take decades of “normal” precipitation to restore the underground aquifer.

[SaltyD from BC]

ouch

[LeeG]

I think it certainly helps but I don’t think it addresses the Colorado river watershed, depletion of aquifers and general warming in the southwest.

[LeeG]

The reservoirs have filled a bit, but it would take decades of “normal” precipitation to restore the underground aquifer.

Aren’t aquifers being drained faster than any normal recharge rate?


https://www.latimes.com/environment/...central-valley

Scientists have discovered that the pace of groundwater depletion in California’s Central Valley has accelerated dramatically during the drought as heavy agricultural pumping has drawn down aquifer levels to new lows and now threatens to devastate the underground water reserves.

The research shows that chronic declines in groundwater levels, which have plagued the Central Valley for decades, have worsened significantly in recent years, with particularly rapid declines occurring since 2019.

“We have a full-on crisis,” said Jay Famiglietti, a hydrology professor and executive director of the University of Saskatchewan’s Global Institute for Water Security. “California’s groundwater, and groundwater across the southwestern U.S., is disappearing much faster than most people realize.”
.
.
During drought, when less water is available from rivers and canals, agriculture in the Central Valley typically depends on groundwater for two-thirds or more of its water supplies.

[LeeG]

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-35582-x

[CWSmith]

The problem will continue until the Jewish Space Laser is brought down.

[David W Pratt]

I think California has been living well beyond its hydrologic means for decades. As mentioned above, underground aquifers are far from being restored. There are also more demands on the water that California does get than can be easily satisfied. Domestic water, agricultural irrigation, ecosystem requirements, golf courses, etc. Who goes to the head of the line?

[skuthorp]

If you largely empty an underground aquifer it may collapse and not be able to be restored.

[CWSmith]

I think California has been living well beyond its hydrologic means for decades.

California, New Mexico, and a host of others.

[L.W. Baxter]

my understanding is that late spring snowpack is more important for drought-breaking than midwinter reservoir levels.

and in recent years even above average snowpack has melted too early.

[skuthorp]

…and that is not going to improve. We have been living beyond our environmental means for some time.

[Dave Wright]

I follow Shasta Lake regularly. The rise in water level this past month has been phenomenal. Often you see a half foot a day rise in a normal winter, but the past few weeks have seen 4 or 5 feet a day at times. Now we're back to roughly a half foot a day rise and rain has subsided. Of course there's still a lot of snow and we're considerably ahead of 2021 and 2022.

If unsustainable California wishes to carry on in it's unsustainable fashion, the only solution I see is more dams and more reservoirs. California lost more water in runoff this past month than it stored in either aquifers or dams.

No one likes dams and they're tough on many fish species, but what else is there if no other changes to farming and population occur?


Screenshot 2023-01-29 11.47.22 AM.jpg

[stromborg]

Are there many more rivers to dam? It is not just fish that suffer, the entire valley/canyon upstream of the dam site gets drowned too. Raising an already built dam does the same thing.

[SaltyD from BC]

my understanding is that late spring snowpack is more important for drought-breaking than midwinter reservoir levels.

and in recent years even above average snowpack has melted too early.

Truth. Increasing reservoir levels down there seldom come from winter rains, although this year just that has delivered more than seen in many years. And snowpack levels are way above average, 200% in places. It will be very interesting to see how things pan out in another few months when all that snow melts.

[LeeG]

…and that is not going to improve. We have been living beyond our environmental means for some time.

worry not, a new equilibrium awaits!

wrt chiding those states for unsustainable residency, er habitation, the unsustainability is global not just a few hotspots.

Is there a shorter synonym for unsustainability? Too many letters.

[L.W. Baxter]

Truth. Increasing reservoir levels down there seldom come from winter rains, although this year just that has delivered more than seen in many years. And snowpack levels are way above average, 200% in places. It will be very interesting to see how things pan out in another few months when all that snow melts.

yes, interesting. if that 200% snowpack melts too fast and too early, all you get is flooding. followed by drought.

and, if the best case scenario happens, humans will waste the opportunity to work toward long term solutions. instead, they will find ways to increase pressure on the next drought cycle.

if you want to be sick, you should see what was done in chihuahua after the recent 20-year drought broke and the reservoirs filled a few years ago: a massive expansion of irrigation-required orchard and cropland, in places that had previously been dryland farmed, or not been farmed in decades, or never farmed at all.

and then, the cabrones left the ranchos without drinking water, and got the peasants to protest, and sue the u.s. governement for "stealing" water from the rio grande watershed.

[Osborne Russell]

Aren’t aquifers being drained faster than any normal recharge rate?

Yes.

[Osborne Russell]

Are there many more rivers to dam?

None.

[Osborne Russell]

Pain will be imposed, by rank order of priority of rights. If I have a right to X, and you have a right to 2x, but my right has priority, and only X is available, I get X, and you get zip. So on down the order of priority.

As the Colorado River Shrinks, Washington Prepares to Spread the Pain

The seven states that rely on the river for water are not expected to reach a deal on cuts. It appears the Biden administration will have to impose reductions.
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Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming argue they are unable to significantly reduce their share of water. Those states get their water primarily from stream flow, rather than from giant reservoirs like in the lower basin states. As the drought reduces that flow, the amount of water they use has already declined to about half their allotment, officials said.

Nor can much of the solution come from Nevada, which is allotted just 300,000 acre-feet from the Colorado. Even if the state’s water deliveries were stopped entirely, rendering Las Vegas effectively uninhabitable, the government would get barely closer to its goal.
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In California, the largest user of Colorado River water is the Imperial Irrigation District, which has rights to 3.1 million acre-feet — as much as Arizona and Nevada put together. That water lets farmers grow alfalfa, lettuce and broccoli on about 800 square miles of the Imperial Valley, in the southeast corner of California.

(emphasis added)

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/27/c...sultPosition=1

For export, primarily to China.

Long-Term Hay Exports have Increased Dramatically, but are Dampened by Recent Trade Disputes

https://ucanr.edu/blogs/blogcore/pos...?postnum=29204

Alfalfa and grass hays produced in the US ending up feeding dairy cows in Riyadh or Bengbu? Who would have thought?

What was once a minor curiosity has fully emerged as a major market for western US hay producers.

US Leads. The United States is the leading hay export country, followed by Australia, Spain, Canada and Italy (Figure 4). While some forage is exported from other countries (e.g. Argentina, Sudan, Morocco, France, Germany, Mongolia, Romania), these make up less than 11% of the world trade, according to the International Trade Center.

--

The major demand for imported forage crops is in Asia, led by Japan, China and Korea (Figure 5), followed by Middle Eastern countries of Saudi Arabia and the UAE. These countries have expanded or improved their dairy and beef production and often do not have adequate space or water resources for high quality pasture, silage, or hay production.

To feed dairy cows.

U.S. alfalfa exports to China continue to climb, reaching 1.29 million metric tons (worth $417 million) in 2016. China is by far the largest foreign market for U.S. alfalfa hay, accounting for nearly half of the total U.S. exports in 2016. This growth is driven by the changing production practices in China’s dairy industry, with an increasing number of dairy cows raised by large and modern dairy farms, which prefer using imported hay and commercial feeds.

https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/china-...ts-china-climb

[SaltyD from BC]

yes, interesting. if that 200% snowpack melts too fast and too early, all you get is flooding. followed by drought.

and, if the best case scenario happens, humans will waste the opportunity to work toward long term solutions. instead, they will find ways to increase pressure on the next drought cycle.

if you want to be sick, you should see what was done in chihuahua after the recent 20-year drought broke and the reservoirs filled a few years ago: a massive expansion of irrigation-required orchard and cropland, in places that had previously been dryland farmed, or not been farmed in decades, or never farmed at all.

and then, the cabrones left the ranchos without drinking water, and got the peasants to protest, and sue the u.s. governement for "stealing" water from the rio grande watershed.

Follow the money man. This time of year 3/4 of the produce we buy way up here comes from Cali the agricultural industry in California is immense.

Came across this the other day a planned new mega reservoir. This one supposedly only taking water during very high run off

[Dave Wright]

Are there many more rivers to dam? It is not just fish that suffer, the entire valley/canyon upstream of the dam site gets drowned too. Raising an already built dam does the same thing.

I won't argue either for or against dams, I recognize benefits to humans from either position. Remember, you don't need to dam a river to create a reservoir. I mentioned in my previous post how January's run off to the sea exceed the amount stored in reservoirs or recharged to aquifers. So an example of creating a reservoir to capture more of the "wasted" runoff would be the proposed Sites Reservoir in north central California:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sites_Reservoir

You can find pro and con arguments on other sites.

Of course if humans act as in L.W. Baxter's post, then why do anything? They'll simply squander any new water, construction money and land resourceswill be wasted, and new projects overwhelmed by human ratbastards in the next severe drought cycle.

[stromborg]

You're right, dams are complicated.

The Sites Reservoir is still based on more dams:

The 14,000-acre (5,700 ha) reservoir would be formed by several dams located in the east foothills of the California Coast Ranges, flooding the long and narrow Antelope Valley. The main dams, Sites and Golden Gate, would be built across Stone Corral and Funks Creeks, respectively. Six smaller saddle dikes would hold in the north end of the lake.^[16] The total capacity would be between 1.3 to 1.8 million acre-feet (1.6 to 2.2 km³).^[16][17] Capacity could be expanded in the future, by raising the surrounding dikes.

Right back where we started, flooding valleys and hoping to find a way to mitigate the downstream environmental effects. The costs are high in both directions

[skuthorp]

Follow the money man. This time of year 3/4 of the produce we buy way up here comes from Cali the agricultural industry in California is immense.

Came across this the other day a planned new mega reservoir. This one supposedly only taking water during very high run off

……and how many water contracts have already been sold 'in anticipation', and what happens if the anticipated water does not appear?

[SaltyD from BC]

Months of bitter negotiations between seven states that rely on the Colorado River’s vanishing water have collapsed along a clear fault line over the past week: California versus everyone else.
The multi-state talks, which have been ongoing in fits and starts for months, were focused on achieving unprecedented water cuts to save the Colorado River – a system that provides water and electricity to more than 40 million people in the West. .......

A showdown over Colorado River water is setting the stage for a high-stakes legal battle (msn.com)

[skuthorp]

Consumption beyond the actual means again…..still…..

[Nicholas Scheuer]

Californians won't learn until there is ABSOLUTELY NO MORE WATER. (what will we call the "Okies" descendants heading east?)

[David W Pratt]

Maybe they could dam up Yosemite, like Hetch Hetchy.

[sandtown]

We need <ZPG

[Hugh MacD]

We need <ZPG

I agree, but the economists argue that it will destroy the economic system. Seems to me we're working under a faulty system that also needs re-inventing.

[gypsie]

As I understand it we've been experiencing a La Niña weather event for a couple of years. This means massive rainfall here with the reciprocal drought on the eastern side of the Pacific. I had thought it was a southern hemisphere thing, but maybe...

Anyway it is agreed we are about to head into an El Niño weather system/event which could last a couple or more years. This means drought, dry, fires! Maybe this will bring relief to the Eastetn Pacific rim....?

Who knows.

We = Australia east coast btw

[Dave Gray]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/new-yor...arce-resource/

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/31/us/ca...ate/index.html

[gypsie]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/new-yor...arce-resource/

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/31/us/ca...ate/index.html

disgusting.
Happens here too.

[Ian McColgin]

I was not alone in the '70s to warn about reckless over-appropriation of the Columbia River. The residential growth in the Southwest - lawns! - has consequences. It's a charming irony that agricultural interests, so mired in water waste themselves, are raising the issue.

[skuthorp]

BTW, Greenland….hottest in 1000 years…..
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/greenla...CNI-00-10aaa3a