MotorTrend Checks in on EVs

[Joe (SoCal)]

Speaking of swinging cats, it’s got a car and memes!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=feMRUH35jQo

That's F'n HYSTERICAL thank you

Watch this https://www.tiktok.com/@twingirlpeek...app=v1&lang=en

[David G]

Dave I know you have a hard on for hybrids, but I hate to tell you the industry is moving more and more towards plug in EV's and in the next 5 years full plug in EVs will go from 1/2 to 3/4 or more. If you ever go to the LA or NY auto show you will notice Its just the way the car industry is moving. So bye bye hybrid's

A hardon? Hardly <G> I regard HEV's as a flawed transitional technology. But more immediately practical than straight EV's.

I regard EV's as a flawed transition tech that will overlap with, and very possibly take over from, hybrids & ice vehicles. Whether they are end 'climax forest' of automobiles is still very much an open question. A lot will depend upon future pollution regulations and govt. subsidies.

Half to 3/4 of all auto sales in 5 years? Except for bombastic bs'ing fanbois... I haven't seen any such projections. Source?

[Paul Pless]

a more realistic expectation is that 50% of new car sales will be ev by year 2030 in the united states
60% of new car sales will be ev by 2030 in europe
and, far far lower ev adoption rates elsewhere in the world

incidentally if biden's economic stimulus packages including the inflation reduction act had not passed, ev sales would only reach ~ 40% by 2030

[LeeG]

a more realistic expectation is that 50% of new car sales will be ev by year 2030 in the united states
60% of new car sales will be ev by 2030 in europe
and, far far lower ev adoption rates elsewhere in the world

incidentally if biden's economic stimulus packages including the inflation reduction act had not passed, ev sales would only reach ~ 40% by 2030

When you say EVs do you mean 100% battery or plug in hybrids and hybrids? 50% BEVs sounds like a lot.

[Jimmy W]

Dave I know you have a hard on for hybrids, but I hate to tell you the industry is moving more and more towards plug in EV's and in the next 5 years full plug in EVs will go from 1/2 to 3/4 or more. If you ever go to the LA or NY auto show you will notice Its just the way the car industry is moving. So bye bye hybrid's

Maybe for LA or NY, but here in flyover country Tesla superchargers are only along interstate highways and some of us are 90 miles from an interstate. I-16 is supposed to someday cross the river at Rosedale which is only 30 miles away, but I'll never see that in my lifetime.

BTW, around here, everyone knows "the river" means the Mississippi,

[Paul Pless]

When you say EVs do you mean 100% battery or plug in hybrids and hybrids? 50% BEVs sounds like a lot.

100% battery electric

[phiil]

So, my wife’s Chevy bolt does lose more range in winter than I’d anticipated. Somewhat disappointing, but we’d be naive to think that a whole new way of moving ourselves around would come without a few behavioral changes on our part. Over the last 150 years or so, we’ve become accustomed to doing things as fast as possible, and cheap ICE transport allowed us to live ever further from our work and shopping. To continue in that vein with EV’s is impractical.
Rather than expecting EV’s to fulfill our old fashioned travel needs we could be reforming our travel needs so that they can be met by EV’s, bikes, and public transport, by living closer to work, school, and commerce.

[Joe (SoCal)]

A hardon? Hardly <G> I regard HEV's as a flawed transitional technology. But more immediately practical than straight EV's.

I regard EV's as a flawed transition tech that will overlap with, and very possibly take over from, hybrids & ice vehicles. Whether they are end 'climax forest' of automobiles is still very much an open question. A lot will depend upon future pollution regulations and govt. subsidies.

Half to 3/4 of all auto sales in 5 years? Except for bombastic bs'ing fanbois... I haven't seen any such projections. Source?

I’m willing to take that bet. What’s the wager ?

[stromborg]

There is talk at work that we'll be getting a hybrid fire engine soon, battery most of the time but with an onboard diesel to run things when the charge gets too low. Slated to go into a new station that will have the capacity to run the chargers built in.

[Dave Gray]

Drive 200 miles and spend an hour to charge? Assuming I can find a station where I am going?

Needs further evolution for me.

[Paul Pless]

I’m willing to take that bet. What’s the wager ?

i want in on this wager, on david's side. . .

[stromborg]

Tesla's fast charging system is reportedly good for 200 miles worth of charge after 15 minutes.

But most people run up the mileage on the their cars going to and from work or around town errands not long road trips. Doing an epic 1000 mile day in your EV is going to be difficult unless you have a route that follows the Tesla charging stations...taking a 15 minute break every 200 miles is about how I travel in my ICE vehicle.

[Canoeyawl]

I’m willing to take that bet. What’s the wager ?

$117.90/Share
Go ahead and up a quick thousand shares

[Dave Gray]

Just to play devil’s advocate here. Gas weighs about six pounds per gallon. A 16 gallon tank is about 100 pounds. As you drive you lose weight as you burn fuel. An EV has a non changing weight ratio.

Ergo, …

[Nicholas Carey]

Another issue is the electric grid.

All this talk about 350 kilowatt chargers. 3 of those are a megawatt. That's a serious amount of power, enough to power several hundred homes )here in the USA).

Scale that by thousands across the country.

Where exactly is all this generating capacity going to come from? And who is going to put up with all the new high-tension lines necessary to distribute the power running across their land? Never mind the actual generating stations.

A big service station on the freeway with 25 or 30 of these chargers is going to need a dedicated substation served by a high-line.

People have not really thought through the actual physical infrastructure requirements necessary to support hundreds of millions of electric vehicles.

I would propose an excise tax on EVs and additional registration fees ("user fees" as it were) to fund all this new infrastructure.

[LeeG]

Another issue is the electric grid.

All this talk about 350 kilowatt chargers. 3 of those are a megawatt. That's a serious amount of power, enough to power several hundred homes )here in the USA).

Scale that by thousands across the country.

Where exactly is all this generating capacity going to come from? And who is going to put up with all the new high-tension lines necessary to distribute the power running across their land? Never mind the actual generating stations.

A big service station on the freeway with 25 or 30 of these chargers is going to need a dedicated substation served by a high-line.

People have not really thought through the actual physical infrastructure requirements necessary to support hundreds of millions of electric vehicles.

I would propose an excise tax on EVs and additional registration fees ("user fees" as it were) to fund all this new infrastructure.

No prob. If the number of cars and miles driven goes down then the number of EVs will look more impressive. Maybe get back to miles driven in the 40’s and 50’s.

[epoxyboy]

a more realistic expectation is that 50% of new car sales will be ev by year 2030 in the united states
60% of new car sales will be ev by 2030 in europe
and, far far lower ev adoption rates elsewhere in the world

incidentally if biden's economic stimulus packages including the inflation reduction act had not passed, ev sales would only reach ~ 40% by 2030

BEV were 10% of global passenger car sales last year, 5% in the US. I guess those numbers are going to ramp up pretty rapidly over the next few years as the price/performance point and supporting infrastructure come closer to matching people's needs and expectations.
Our next vehicle will almost certainly be 100% battery. But there are two ten year old low mileage ICE vehicles in the household that aren't close to being so annoying to own that we want to ditch either of them yet, and the distance we drive each year is so low that any potential fuel savings are insignificant - I fill up once a month unless we're away on a road trip, and bike to work half the time.

Pete

[Canoeyawl]

What will happen is the price of electricity will go up until it compares with petroleum fuel ("other" energy).
Right now that is an unfilled loophole. Remember not so long ago when diesel fuel was so much less expensive than gasoline, What happened to that?
Unfortunately it carried over almost exactly to the cost of home heating oil. I predict exactly this will happen with home electric bills, sooner than later. There is no free lunch, poverty is inefficient for the impoverished and a golden goose for business.

Electricity is a public utility and utilities are a racket that strictly reflects demand. Most homes are not equipped with infrastructure (wiring) to support an electric vehicle, and upgrading the grid for all is going to cost us dearly.

The fact that you have to drive somewhere to recharge your vehicle should be the first clue...
The second clue will come when you drive somewhere to charge your vehicle and have to get in line for this commodity
The third clue will come when you get accosted while waiting, and not everyone puts their faith in a #2 pencil.

[Joe (SoCal)]

I'm in for $5,000 wager for full plug in EV's will surpass hybrid's by 2028 who's in ?

[David G]

I'm in for $5,000 wager for full plug in EV's will surpass hybrid's by 2028 who's in ?

So... rather than supply any sort of link to someone serious who agrees with your projection... you propose a wager?

Bombastic bs'ing fanboi's in action!!

[Joe (SoCal)]

So... rather than supply any sort of link to someone serious who agrees with your projection... you propose a wager?

Bombastic bs'ing fanboi's in action!!

$5K is $5K I see trends better than most Nothing to do with fanboyness

[David G]

$5K is $5K I see trends better than most Nothing to do with fanboyness

Less doubling down. More responding to the request for a link.

[LeeG]

Just to play devil’s advocate here. Gas weighs about six pounds per gallon. A 16 gallon tank is about 100 pounds. As you drive you lose weight as you burn fuel. An EV has a non changing weight ratio.

Ergo, …

yeah but electrons aren’t heavy

[Joe (SoCal)]

Less doubling down. More responding to the request for a link.

I’’m sorry I don’t have an absolute perfect predictable link for 2028 yet. Do you ?

[David G]

I’’m sorry I don’t have an absolute perfect link for 2028 yet. Do you ?

I didn't ask for "an absolute perfect link for 2028". Here's what I asked for... reputable projections ...

"Half to 3/4 of all auto sales in 5 years? Except for bombastic bs'ing fanbois... I haven't seen any such projections. Source?"

[Joe (SoCal)]

I didn't ask for "an absolute perfect link for 2028". Here's what I asked for... reputable projections ...

"Half to 3/4 of all auto sales in 5 years? Except for bombastic bs'ing fanbois... I haven't seen any such projections. Source?"

My SOURCE and my bet is based on my ability I see trends better than most. You in or not ?

[LeeG]

I bet ya didn’t see that container ship getting stuck in the Suez

[David G]

My SOURCE and my bet is based on my ability I see trends better than most. You in or not ?

What does your willingness to bet have to do with it? You're saying you trust your 'shoot from the lip' instinct better than any industry projections? Why didn't you just say that the first time I asked? Why all the time-wasting jawflapping?

Just for your edification and future use... HERE is what a source looks like --

Less than 20% by 2028

https://www.autopacific.com/autopaci...ecast%20period.


Another, similar projection

https://evadoption.com/ev-sales/ev-sales-forecasts/

[Joe (SoCal)]

Lets talk again in 2028

[Joe (SoCal)]

I bet ya didn’t see that container ship getting stuck in the Suez

I did a LONG time ago - Container ships kept getting bigger while the Suez stayed the SAME size. It twas just a matter of time.

[David G]

I'm in for $5,000 wager for full plug in EV's will surpass hybrid's by 2028 who's in ?

Lets talk again in 2028

Sure, put it in your tickler file and we can talk again.

Regarding this 'bet'. First, that's not what you said, or that I objected to.

Second, you don't even say what you're betting on. Does 'surpass' mean there are more EV's on the road starting in 2028 than there are HEV's or PHEV's? Or do you mean that the % of EV's sold in 2027 will exceed that of hybrids sold in 2022? Or something else entire? More bs & lazy sloppy bombast. Are you actively campaigning to fill bubbbbbbles role in the Bilge? <G>

[Joe (SoCal)]

David I simply said:

I'm in for $5,000 wager for full plug in EV's will surpass hybrid's by 2028 who's in ?

By 2028 Plug In EV's will surpass hybrids. Whats to figure out ? I will admit that hybrids will stick around in a marginal way much like a lot of out of date tech continues to hang around, but it will be very marginal and for the people like David who will cling on to the desire that hybrids are the way to go.

Fact is every major Auto company is already jumping off the transient Hybrid bandwagon

[David G]

David I simply said:




By 2028 Plug In EV's will surpass hybrids. Whats to figure out ? I will admit that hybrids will stick around in a marginal way much like a lot of out of date tech continues to hang around, but it will be very marginal and for the people like David who will cling on to the desire that hybrids are the way to go.

Fact is every major Auto company is already jumping off the transient Hybrid bandwagon

It seems you have trouble reading for comprehension. ARE you angling for the bbbbbbys look-alike award?

[LeeG]

It seems you have trouble reading for comprehension. ARE you angling for the bbbbbbys look-alike award?

I think he means sales in that year. Something to remember is that more used cars are purchased each year than new so what’s on the road in five years won’t look much different than now. Don’t think my ‘97 F150 will make it that long.

[David G]

I think he means sales in that year. Something to remember is that more used cars are purchased each year than new so what’s on the road in five years won’t look much different than now. Don’t think my ‘97 F150 will make it that long.

I think he means total # of EV's launched into space...

We can all guess, but there are various ways to measure. He didn't specify, not did he respond to my query regarding his lack of specificity.

I guess when you're FOS - it doesn't do to dwell on the details that illuminate HOW full...