It's 'Now or Never' time for Japan's falling population

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  • skuthorp
    Senior Member
    • Jan 2002
    • 73627

    It's 'Now or Never' time for Japan's falling population

    "Tokyo. Japan'sprime minister issued a dire warning about the country’s population crisis on Monday, saying it was “on the brink of not being able to maintain social functions” due to the falling birth rate.

    Japan has one of the lowest birth rates in the world, with the Ministry of Health predicting it will record fewer than 800,000 births in 2022 for the first time since records began in 1899.
    "
    Japan’s prime minister issued a dire warning about the country’s population crisis on Monday, saying it was “on the brink of not being able to maintain social functions” due to the falling birth rate.


    China will have similar problems,
  • George.
    Senior Member
    • Aug 2004
    • 17963

    #2
    Re: It's 'Now or Never' time for Japan's falling population

    Everyone will have to figure this out, sooner or later. Sooner is better than later. Japan has been doing quite well at it.

    Comment

    • dutchpp
      The Netherlands
      • Nov 2011
      • 2649

      #3
      Re: It's 'Now or Never' time for Japan's falling population

      "Degrowth" seems to become the new economic strategy, one of the authors is Timothee Parrique.

      A lot of other authors and thinkers in the summary behind this link.

      Comment

      • Andrew Craig-Bennett
        Who?
        • Aug 1999
        • 28468

        #4
        Re: It's 'Now or Never' time for Japan's falling population

        I’m not seeing a problem; I’m seeing a better future.
        IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

        Comment

        • Nicholas Scheuer
          Senior Member
          • Aug 2006
          • 13579

          #5
          Re: It's 'Now or Never' time for Japan's falling population

          What's the problem? Less population pressure on farmland. Maybe then farmers will earn more than IT nerds. The alternatives for depopulation is disease or nuclear war.

          Comment

          • mizzenman
            *********
            • Jan 2006
            • 1083

            #6
            Re: It's 'Now or Never' time for Japan's falling population

            Economic decline. With the social problems that come with it
            Ragnar B.

            Comment

            • TomF
              Recalcitrant Heretic
              • Jun 2003
              • 50978

              #7
              Re: It's 'Now or Never' time for Japan's falling population

              The problem isn't a lower population, it's getting through the transition.

              Decommissioning infrastructure which cannot be maintained anymore, when there isn't a tax base anymore sufficient even to decommission it safely. Finding ways to provide the increasing volume of health care and extended care a significantly large seniors' population requires, when the demographics don't show a large enough working age cohort to do the labor, or large enough productive capacity in the economy to have that much highly skilled/paid labor devoted to non-GDP producing services.

              Japan's not the only society which will go through such a wrenching transition. To be honest, it will be harder in sparsely populated places which already have a rough time retaining infrastructure like highway systems or water treatment etc on a shrinking regional tax base as their prior populations move to cities for the services elderly folks need. Overall population decline in addition to rural depopulation will be a helluva tough management challenge, especially in democracies.
              If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

              Comment

              • George.
                Senior Member
                • Aug 2004
                • 17963

                #8
                Re: It's 'Now or Never' time for Japan's falling population

                The problem isn't a lower population, it's getting through the transition.
                Yes, and the first step is to recognize that it needs to be done, rather than fight population decline as if it was a bad thing.

                Comment

                • mizzenman
                  *********
                  • Jan 2006
                  • 1083

                  #9
                  Re: It's 'Now or Never' time for Japan's falling population

                  Yes. But why would the population level ever stabilize, what would compel people to start getting more than two kids? Unless we go back to a situation where kids are needed as a labor force in the family.
                  Ragnar B.

                  Comment

                  • Paul Pless
                    pinko commie tree hugger
                    • Oct 2003
                    • 124839

                    #10
                    Re: It's 'Now or Never' time for Japan's falling population

                    Originally posted by TomF
                    To be honest, it will be harder in sparsely populated places which already have a rough time retaining infrastructure like highway systems or water treatment etc on a shrinking regional tax base as their prior populations move to cities for the services elderly folks need. Overall population decline in addition to rural depopulation will be a helluva tough management challenge, especially in democracies.
                    not necessarily. . .

                    standard of living can be maintained in a declining population if worker productivity increases at a corresponding rate
                    japan from 1960 through 2000 saw huge gains in worker productivity (through its investment in and development of efficient technologies); since 2000 japan's rate of increase in worker productivity lags behind most other top performing economies - that's a real problem

                    there are other options, that a few nation's may be able to exploit, think nations with relatively low populations combined with income and wealth equality and vast wealth, nations with sovereign wealth funds, denmark. . . norway. . .

                    or nations, like canada and australia, with low population compared to their vast natural resource wealth; in this regard canada is better poised for growth as they have a more reasonable attitude with regards to immigration

                    comparatively, its quite possible that rural centric populations may be able to raise their productivity levels more easily than already highly productivity urban societies
                    Last edited by Paul Pless; 01-24-2023, 06:56 AM.
                    Simpler is better, except when complicated looks really cool.

                    Comment

                    • Andrew Craig-Bennett
                      Who?
                      • Aug 1999
                      • 28468

                      #11
                      Re: It's 'Now or Never' time for Japan's falling population

                      I really think economists are a poor guide to this.

                      Lets try the historians.

                      In June 1348 a seaman came ashore at Weymouth with an infection of yersinia pestis; by December 1349 about half the population of England was dead. England is used because England had better records of population than other European countries but the figures are assumed to be similar everywhere.

                      The economic consequences were interesting but they were not bad.

                      China offers an example of the opposite: the importation of New World vegetables into Macao by the Portuguese in the 16th century is taken to have doubled the population of China; the economic effects were negative.
                      IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

                      Comment

                      • Paul Pless
                        pinko commie tree hugger
                        • Oct 2003
                        • 124839

                        #12
                        Re: It's 'Now or Never' time for Japan's falling population

                        Originally posted by Andrew Craig-Bennett

                        China offers an example of the opposite: the importation of New World vegetables into Macao by the Portuguese in the 16th century is taken to have doubled the population of China; the economic effects were negative.
                        post wwii when the worlds largest munitions plant located in muscle shoals, alabama was converted to produce fertilizer coincides perfectly with the world population explosion beginning in 1950
                        Simpler is better, except when complicated looks really cool.

                        Comment

                        • George.
                          Senior Member
                          • Aug 2004
                          • 17963

                          #13
                          Re: It's 'Now or Never' time for Japan's falling population

                          Why does productivity have to increase? Income for most people has remained stagnant for decades. Only the top whatever % are seeing their income grow. We seem to be surviving it, and surely could survive the top x% also seeing their income stagnate.

                          Comment

                          • Paul Pless
                            pinko commie tree hugger
                            • Oct 2003
                            • 124839

                            #14
                            Re: It's 'Now or Never' time for Japan's falling population

                            productivity doesn't have to increase and probably won't

                            however if you want to maintain current standards of living, which japan certainly does, then productivity must increase
                            Simpler is better, except when complicated looks really cool.

                            Comment

                            • Paul Pless
                              pinko commie tree hugger
                              • Oct 2003
                              • 124839

                              #15
                              Re: It's 'Now or Never' time for Japan's falling population

                              japan will probably import workers like they have done so in the past
                              curious to see if they choose brazilians again
                              Simpler is better, except when complicated looks really cool.

                              Comment

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