Did global motor vehicle production peak?

[LeeG]

sure looks like it.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...on-since-1999/


https://transportgeography.org/conte...duction-world/

[Paul Pless]

sure looks like it.

hard to say, the sharpest portion of the recent decline occurred during the height of the pandemic, and that trend has reversed itself

there sure are lot of people in developing countries that have never bought a car but they sure as hell want one,
though maybe it would be best if we denied them that desire, eh?

[LeeG]

hard to say, the sharpest portion of the recent decline occurred during the height of the pandemic, and that trend has reversed itself

there sure are lot of people in developing countries that have never bought a car but they sure as hell want one,
though maybe it would be best if we denied them that desire, eh?

Sure it’s up a bit but still down a lot since 2017. What you want and what you get aren’t the same thing so sure a lot of places will still increase motor vehicle per capita which is why the US will be SOL when tight oil peaks as we will not be able to compete with those economies for oil on the world market.

[Too Little Time]

Sure it’s up a bit but still down a lot since 2017. What you want and what you get aren’t the same thing so sure a lot of places will still increase motor vehicle per capita which is why the US will be SOL when tight oil peaks as we will not be able to compete with those economies for oil on the world market.

I think the US is rich enough to compete with most countries for oil.

But considering that the EU and California are not allowing production of ICEs after 2035 or so, there might not be a large demand for oil.

Considering the expected improvements in batteries I would expect that the demand for oil will fall.

[Joe (SoCal)]

I think the US is rich enough to compete with most countries for oil.

But considering that the EU and California are not allowing production of ICEs after 2035 or so, there might not be a large demand for oil.

Considering the expected improvements in batteries I would expect that the demand for oil will fall.

Unless Mercedes is bringing their EV Sprinter Vans soon our entire business runs on diesel. I just paid my monthly fuel bill on our four vans and it was well over $4,000. Although I don’t see us having a problem until I retire since we buy our vans out of a dealer in North Carolina where our upfitter is. So I don’t see NC banning ICE Vehicles anytime soon. The ship it to a grooming expo in Los Vegas and we fly out and drive it back to California. Same goes for our national franchise. Additionally I don’t know if our power demands for the grooming equipment would work with an EV Van, I’ll ask our upfitter engineer.


All this is why I love my Tesla as our personal vehicle

[LeeG]

I think the US is rich enough to compete with most countries for oil.

But considering that the EU and California are not allowing production of ICEs after 2035 or so, there might not be a large demand for oil.

Considering the expected improvements in batteries I would expect that the demand for oil will fall.

You may think that but recent data does not support you. Those people with one car for eight people will be buying cheaper vehicles and using them more efficiently to make the products you buy. You on the other hand will decide whether to drive here or there for vacation. When oil prices shot up to $140/barrel back in 2008 our imports and consumption went down and China’s continued increasing even at that high price because the world was buying what they were making.
So no, the US isn’t rich enough.

It’s nice to think we control global supply by our demand but that’s putting the cart before the horse.

[RCRVRP]

The ship it to a grooming expo in Los Vegas and we fly out and drive it back to California. Same goes for our national franchise. Additionally I don’t know if our power demands for the grooming equipment would work with an EV Van, I’ll ask our upfitter engineer.


All this is why I love my Tesla as our personal vehicle

Where on the net is your national franchise information?

[L.W. Baxter]

Where on the net is your national franchise information?

rcrvrp, lmgtfy.

[Joe (SoCal)]

Where on the net is your national franchise information?

https://groomservicefranchise.com/


Edit to add thanks L.W.

[AndanteEd]

https://www.automotive-fleet.com/101...supply-rebound

This article seems to indicate that the recent decline has been driven more by a decrease in supply and the corresponding reduced inventories than a decrease in demand.

It does go on to say that with supply chains easing and potential reduction in demand with rising interest rates, inventories may well bounce back pretty quickly.

[Dan McCosh]

I think the US is rich enough to compete with most countries for oil.

But considering that the EU and California are not allowing production of ICEs after 2035 or so, there might not be a large demand for oil.

Considering the expected improvements in batteries I would expect that the demand for oil will fall.

California hasn't produced an ICE car for seven years or so, and only produced one model for the past 50 years so. Doubt this has had much effect on global production. That said, the main driving force for maybe 30 years has been China. The data doesn't show up on my computer that started the OP, but one would expect a dip as Chinese manufacturing slowed during COVID.

[Too Little Time]

California hasn't produced an ICE car for seven years or so, and only produced one model for the past 50 years so. Doubt this has had much effect on global production. That said, the main driving force for maybe 30 years has been China. The data doesn't show up on my computer that started the OP, but one would expect a dip as Chinese manufacturing slowed during COVID.

Perhaps I should have said sales.

[John B]

Regardless of immediate data , Vehicle manufacturers must be rubbing their hands together at the thought of the replacement of the worlds vehicle fleet at what, a third to half extra cost and the additional margin that goes with it.

[Dan McCosh]

Regardless of immediate data , Vehicle manufacturers must be rubbing their hands together at the thought of the replacement of the worlds vehicle fleet at what, a third to half extra cost and the additional margin that goes with it.

If electric cars were that cheap to manufacture, there would be no ICE cars on the road today. As for replacing the world's vehicle fleet, you would have to start with Cuba, where the fleet hasn't been replaced for 50 years, with no new vehicles sold.