Predictions for this week.

[Vernon]

I agree that Biden's slower than he was once - he'd have been better suited to be POTUS ten years ago, or even 5. I'm slower than I was ten years ago too, and I'm only 60. But objectively, it's hyperbole to suggest that Biden's becoming senile.

This, I think is the correct assessment.

I think the decline that is inevitable with all of us is now blatantly obvious and he very likely won't be the best choice going forward.

I'm just shy of 60, I don't think I'd feel right taking on a job of anywhere near the magnitude. I feel that I was quite a lot sharper/quicker 10 years ago.

Vern

[David W Pratt]

I would guess that there is not a Republican anywhere who would rather see Kamala Harris in the White House than Biden.


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Has she distinguished herself enough to be an attractive candidate?

[CWSmith]

I would guess that there is not a Republican anywhere who would rather see Kamala Harris in the White House than Biden.

I'm not sure there are many Democrats, either. She has yet to make her case for leadership at the top of the bill.

[Wine47]

I actually hope Trump runs - I think he will be the easiest Republican to beat - now with his Qanon nonsense. He has turned off a lot of Republicans. That being said , I do hope the Democrats come up with a viable candidate to Biden/Harris.

[McMike]

need more doom to go with the gloom joe.

Kind of sucks when you're to blame. yeah, you failed to see the truth and went out of your way to varnish the lie because you couldn't stand that democracy was a thing and that meant you lose roughly half the time. Effing snowflake.

[McMike]

The January 6 committee ends with this congress whether the magats the house or not. The important investigation as far as criminal prosecution, is the DOJ investigation which will continue regardless. At least until indictment or the possibility of the magats taking the 2024 election. Oh, for what it’s worth, a lot of libruls know how to shoot, if need be.

Wanna bet MG is impeached early next year?

[Jim Mahan]

I'm not sure there are many Democrats, either. She has yet to make her case for leadership at the top of the bill.

Patience, grasshopper. She's doing a good job as veep, and she's gotten closer to the top job than Hillary did. Veeps usually gets pilloried in the press and become the butt of late night TV show host jokes. I don't watch that stuff any more, but I haven't heard where she's getting toasted for gaffs. She's doing her business and not stealing anyone's thunder. If she is going to be considered for the top spot down the road, there's plenty of time to bang her drum. She's no slouch, she is a former senator, a California AG and a top prosecutor, and if Desantis is attacking her it's because he thinks she's a threat, IMO. I'd be interested in the opinions of those here who are paying closer attention than I am.
,

[Jim Mahan]

Wanna bet MG is impeached early next year?

MG? Do you mean Empty Greene?

[McMike]

MG? Do you mean Empty Greene?

Merrick Garland

[StevenBauer]

From last night’s trump** rally:

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[McMike]

From last night’s trump** rally:

08BFD2B8-16C9-4845-8EA7-4937F873B174.jpg

I've gotten Nazi propaganda on my front door this summer. Disgusting and frightening.

[willin woodworks]

Not to TFG it's not. They are a big part of his base and he thinks they are "Very fine people".

[Dave Wright]

We have a Trump backed racist Republican running in my Congressional district. One of his preelection promises is to impeach Biden (and he touts the usual Trump election fraud claims too). Unfortunately, it looks like he may win. The Democratic challenger has many attributes that could help her in this district, but she's received negligible help from the national Democratic organization. As one news report put it:

"The national Democratic party’s absence has left Gluesenkamp Perez to simultaneously parent her infant child, run a small auto shop with her husband and try to blunt the advance of Kent, who Democrats in Washington and around the nation are calling “too extreme” and a threat to democracy."

Why is my party of choice so goddamn stupid?

Hallelujah!

Looks like a repudiation of the Trump backed, fair election denier, automatic weapons for everyone, Green Beret pretty boy, with boogaloo boy friends, and a source of income from a no show job.

Seattle Times is declaring a victory for Marie Glusencamp Perez. I've been tallying the votes from each county in the district for four days now, biting my finger nails as the numbers seemed to make an upset possible. The New York Times and 538 predicted Perez's loss to Kent for weeks - I say up theirs!

This gives us a new Democratic Congresswoman from what has been a long time Republican district.

The former congresswoman, Jaime Herra Beutler, was one of ten Republican congress members voting for Trump's impeachment. This brought down Trump's ire and she lost the primary to Trump's pretty boy Joe Kent. A lot of Republicans said "wait a minute, Kent is crazy!" Apparently there were a sufficient number of them to squeak a decent Democrat, Marie Glusencamp Perez, into office. No thanks to the National Democratic Party.

From the Seattle Times:

"Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, an auto shop owner who was a virtual unknown before August’s primary election, pulled off perhaps the most stunning political upset in the country this year, winning a congressional seat in Southwest Washington that few saw as competitive.

Gluesenkamp Perez, a Democrat, defeated Donald Trump-endorsed Republican Joe Kent in Washington’s 3rd Congressional District, with roughly 50.5% of the vote Saturday.

The latest ballot count Saturday in Clark County put Gluesenkamp Perez’s lead over Kent, an Army Special Forces veteran, at more than 4,600 votes, with an estimated 15,000 or fewer votes remaining. She had led since election night, but Kent narrowed the gap in later counts.

The Seattle Times projects Gluesenkamp Perez as the winner, as an analysis shows Kent would need 73% of the remaining votes to catch up.

Gluesenkamp Perez’s victory sends a Democrat to Congress in a district that has voted Republican for more than a decade, and means eight of Washington’s 10 House members will now be Democrats, along with the state’s two U.S. senators.

It also bolsters Democrats’ chances of possibly hanging onto their House majority, with several races too close to call in states including California, Oregon and Arizona. Republicans remain favored to win a narrow majority."

[TomF]

Dems keep the Senate. Nevada went to the Dems tonight, so they're back at least to 50, plus the VP. I suspect this means Warnock is also going to win, because the motivation among Georgia's reps will sag without the big prize.

[elf]

I sent 20 letters to Georgia voters this morning, urging them to take their citizenship seriously and be sure to vote in the runoff. It cost me 20 stamps, 20 envelopes and a little time.

If you want a good country
Be a good citizen.

Go here to do the same.

https://votefwd.org/

[UCanoe_2]

Thanks, elf!

I sent 20 Vote Forward letters to GA yesterday. My goal is to send a total of 200 by the Nov. 29th deadline. In addition to yesterday's letters, I had already sent 300 letters this election season.

Writing letters to voters is a whole lot more constructive than arguing in the Bilge.

[CWSmith]

Dems keep the Senate. Nevada went to the Dems tonight, so they're back at least to 50, plus the VP. I suspect this means Warnock is also going to win, because the motivation among Georgia's reps will sag without the big prize.

Fingers crossed, there is a chance that the Democrat from West Virginia could be marginalized.

[Joe (SoCal)]

I'm happy to say I'm glad to say my prediction was off.

[McMike]

I'm happy to say I'm glad to say my prediction was off.

Me too . . . thank the fu34ing gods.

[UCanoe_2]

I'm happy to say I'm glad to say my prediction was off.

"It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future."
-- Yogi Berra

[Garret]

25th Amendment.

And no, if nobody could bring themselves to remove Trump via the 25th, or even to delegate his Presidential authority to Pence when (as we now know) he was fighting for his life with COVID, then stripping Biden of his office because he's old is ridiculous.

Biden's clearly not sliding into dementia (as Reagan was). I was involved once developing legislation for "substitute decision makers" for people who lost competence to make decisions about their medical care, legal affairs etc. I'm not a clinical expert, but the clinical experts I worked with would absolutely consider Biden to be fully mentally competent, fully capable to make decisions, and that stripping him of such rights would be wholly unjust.

Feinstein's 88, and has lost capacity. Grassley's also 88. Shelby's 87, Inhofe is 86. Leahy is 81. The Congressional Research Service says that 23 Senators are in their 70s, actually, and only one is younger than 40.

If you want to suggest term limits, mandatory retirement ages, I'm all ears. Barring that, the way to remove Biden from office is the same way folks are hoping today to remove Grassley from office. At the polls.

Leahy - in so many words - said "I'm done, time for someone new". Thing is that his (just elected in a landslide) successor is mid-70's. Just to tangent a bit (OK, a lot) - Leahy was a wonderful senator & not only did he support a lot of great legislation, he has been working on getting rid of land mines for years & years. He also - when he was a Vermont state senator - wrote & got passed the "Swimming Hole Law". There had been debate on whether nude swimming at these remote river sites was OK. The law lays out the most reasonable solution I can think of: if the first people at the spot for the day say no suits are OK, no one can object until they leave - then the next group there gets to decide. Same thing if the first group says suits should be worn.

Finally, he's a Deadhead. My brother ran a conference where Leahy was supposed to present an award and he was late because he got stuck in traffic leaving a Dead concert. Not many senators you could say that about

[Dave Wright]

"It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future."
-- Yogi Berra

I've always enjoyed reading 538. Not so much for the predictions, but because those predictions are no way near as accurate as Nate Silver would have you believe. He's a star and a millionaire now and had a best selling book, such is celebrity. Silver doesn't reveal his code and exact methods, and it would probably take me days to understand it, if I even could. But I've long suspected that analysis of moving averages might equal or beat complicated Monte Carlo methods for most of the preductions that we might be interested in. I wonder how many people are impressed when they see Silver and 538 touting "40,000 simulations" to predict an election?

I was happily sneering at 538 last night when my long shot Democratic congressional candidate was declared a winner. I'd watched Silver's odds of her winning (2 in 100) for three weeks.

40,000 simulations, sheeeeeit!



538 **** simulation s.jpg