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Thread: Russia's economic future

  1. #1
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    Default Russia's economic future

    "Be curious, not judgmental." - (Misattributed to Walt Whitman as recalled by) Ted Lasso

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    Default Re: Russia's economic future

    If the world slidesninto a severe recession, who will be able to bail out the Russian people if this article has legs? Failure to help would just see a repeat, or worse, of the recent situation.

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    Default Re: Russia's economic future

    About 6 months ago I ran across a video authored by a demographer (whose name is escaping me, and who has posted reasonable articles in the past) who made the following 3 points:

    1.) That Putin has tied the strings of government about himself so tightly that it is unlikely that any successor could effectively manage the government of the Russian Federation.

    2.) That the average life-expectancy in Russia is about (IIRC) 65 years. And that those in any position to govern in Russia are nearing the point where (like Putin) they age out.

    3.) That thanks to Putin's efforts to stay in power, there is no younger generation waiting in the wings to take over the government.

    He also pointed out that the demographics of the country was heavily weighted toward the old-age end of the spectrum, and that the diminishing population of child-bearing Russians was insufficient to provide a sustaining work force going forward.

    And just today I read a headline stating that according to a Kremlin source Putin is suffering from both Parkinson's and both pancreatic and prostate cancer.

    It definitely would appear that Russia as a nation is seriously fooked.
    “Aren’t you supposed to be the gentlemen who lie for the good of their country?”
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    Default Re: Russia's economic future

    And the rest of the world will need to step up. That is if China doesn't just move west as Russia begins to fail.

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    Default Re: Russia's economic future

    China can, and will, step in. Most of Asiatic Russia was Chinese, anyway.

    It will take years to build the oil and gas pipelines from the oil and gas fields of the Caucasus to China. But China is good at large civil engineering projects.
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    Default Re: Russia's economic future

    Quote Originally Posted by skuthorp View Post
    And the rest of the world will need to step up. That is if China doesn't just move west as Russia begins to fail.
    Oh I think the west will, the CIA is doing overtime as we speak.
    In short: this winter the Russian army will freeze to death, and the russian federation will fall apart, and I don't think China will get any part of Siberia
    Don't worry I'm happy

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    Default Re: Russia's economic future

    Quote Originally Posted by webishop14 View Post
    He also pointed out that the demographics of the country was heavily weighted toward the old-age end of the spectrum, and that the diminishing population of child-bearing Russians was insufficient to provide a sustaining work force going forward.
    ...
    It definitely would appear that Russia as a nation is seriously fooked.
    There's a very old joke about Reagan and Gorbachev - and I'm not sure if it originally weren't even earlier rulers - hibernating for a decade or three. They defrost and decide to take a stroll. Gorbachev picks a newspaper, browses through it and laughs aloud. "What is it?" - Reagan asks. "Well", says Gorbachev, "it appears that USA is now a communist state!". "Gimme that!", Reagan says, reads the news and laughs even harder. "What is it?" Gorbachev asks. Reagan says nothing and just shows him the headline: "Riots on Polish-Chinese border"


    Given how things are going, the joke is somewhat less funny - we used to assume the said border would be somewhere near Kazakhstan, now the first though draws the dotted line west of Moscow...
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    Default Re: Russia's economic future

    The Caucases?
    There's a lot of Muslims out that way, and neither Russia or China are too enthusiastic about them.

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    Default Re: Russia's economic future

    But even if Putin is counting on oil, it is not a gamble likely to pay out over the long term. Just last week, the IEA, an intergovernmental forum that advises its 31 member countries—largely Western nations—on energy policy, said Russian fossil fuel exports would “never return in any of the scenarios…to the levels seen in 2021.”
    er, might look at the rest of the projections the IEA made in their World Energy Outlook.

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    Default Re: Russia's economic future

    Russia’s decline as an exporter will hurt.
    Don’t worry, we’ll just release more oil from the SPR and threaten oil companies with windfall taxes.


    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/01/ener...ceos-warn.html

    Oil CEOs warn this winter’s energy crisis will be nothing compared to the next

    But as much worry as there is ahead of this winter, it’s really the winter of 2023 that people should be worried about, major oil and gas executives have warned.

    “We’ve got a difficult winter ahead, and subsequent to that we’ve got a more difficult winter in the year ahead of that, because the production that is available to Europe in the first half of 2023 is considerably less than the production we had available to us in the first half of 2022,” Russell Hardy, CEO of major oil trader Vitol, told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble during a panel at the Adipec conference in Abu Dhabi.

    “So the consequences of energy shortage and therefore price escalation, all of the things that have been discussed here about the cost of living, the expectation of problems ahead, clearly need to be thought about in that context,” he said.

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    Default Re: Russia's economic future

    The world can't afford a war, but that's never stopped us before…...

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    Default Re: Russia's economic future

    Quote Originally Posted by webishop14 View Post
    About 6 months ago I ran across a video authored by a demographer (whose name is escaping me, and who has posted reasonable articles in the past) who made the following 3 points:

    1.) That Putin has tied the strings of government about himself so tightly that it is unlikely that any successor could effectively manage the government of the Russian Federation.

    2.) That the average life-expectancy in Russia is about (IIRC) 65 years. And that those in any position to govern in Russia are nearing the point where (like Putin) they age out.

    3.) That thanks to Putin's efforts to stay in power, there is no younger generation waiting in the wings to take over the government.

    He also pointed out that the demographics of the country was heavily weighted toward the old-age end of the spectrum, and that the diminishing population of child-bearing Russians was insufficient to provide a sustaining work force going forward.

    And just today I read a headline stating that according to a Kremlin source Putin is suffering from both Parkinson's and both pancreatic and prostate cancer.

    It definitely would appear that Russia as a nation is seriously fooked.
    Between the casualties in the Ukraine, and those who fled Russia to avoid being drafted into the army, Russias population of working age men has been severely reduced. This at a time when they already have an imbalance due to low birthrates and previous emigration of younger people, in particular those with good education and skills. That leaves Russia in a parlous state looking to the future.
    Foreign investment, and the people that that investment took into Russia, skilled people plus capital, has fled, so much of their oil and manufacturing industry is now lacking those skills.
    Much of the conscription has been among the smaller ethnic groups, outside Moscow, those are the farmers, the miners, the working classes, without whom there is no produce, nothing for the office workers and management to do.

    Its a very scary prospect, not just for Russians, but for the world. All of us.

    Check out Joe Blogs on YouTube for a series of objective and fact based reports on Russias economic future.

    John Welsford
    Last edited by john welsford; 11-03-2022 at 01:22 PM.
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    Default Re: Russia's economic future

    Quote Originally Posted by beernd View Post
    Oh I think the west will, the CIA is doing overtime as we speak.
    In short: this winter the Russian army will freeze to death, and the russian federation will fall apart, and I don't think China will get any part of Siberia
    There is a large ethnic Chinese population in the south east of Siberia, its not inconceivable that China might just quietly move more and more people in there and take over by fiat.
    There is a lot of mineral resource there.

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    Default Re: Russia's economic future

    Quote Originally Posted by john welsford View Post
    There is a large ethnic Chinese population in the south east of Siberia, its not inconceivable that China might just quietly move more and more people in there and take over by fiat.
    There is a lot of mineral resource there.

    John Welsford
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    Default Re: Russia's economic future

    We all know about the Opium Wars, but that is about all we know about the collapse of the Qing dynasty.

    Russia expanded rapidly to the East in the 19th century because of Chinese weakness.

    Vladivostok* was founded as a military outpost in 1860. The Trans-Siberian Railway was built between 1890 and 1906.

    Like the United States, Russia had a Frontier… and it was moving rapidly East, taking over areas that were once considered as within the Chinese sphere of influence.

    * the name is translated as “Ruler of the East”.
    Last edited by Andrew Craig-Bennett; 11-02-2022 at 05:13 PM.
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    Default Re: Russia's economic future

    Going by eyeball and looking at a Russian demographic pyramid it seems there are maybe 10 or 12 million Russian men in the prime warfighting ages. 700,000+ have fled the country. 50-70k are dead which is a significant number, and it's likely that close to 1% of all Russian men of prime military age have been either killed or wounded. That is astonishing. I'd flee the country too if I was a 25 or 35 year old Russian man.
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    Default Re: Russia's economic future

    Well, there is a Vlad’s plan of giving one million rubles to any Russian woman who bears ten children.

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    Default Re: Russia's economic future

    ^But most Russian men drink so much that they can't reproduce, I think it's called alcoholic neuropathic impotence in English

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    Default Re: Russia's economic future

    Quote Originally Posted by john welsford View Post
    There is a large ethnic Chinese population in the south east of Siberia, its not inconceivable that China might just quietly move more and more people in there and take over by fiat.
    There is a lot of mineral resource there.

    John Welsford
    The big question is: do those people want to be taken over by China, I doubt that very much.
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    Default Re: Russia's economic future

    Quote Originally Posted by beernd View Post
    The big question is: do those people want to be taken over by China, I doubt that very much.
    I'd imagine they didn't want to be taken over by Russia, either. Glad I'm not one of them.
    There is no rational, logical, or physical description of how free will could exist. It therefore makes no sense to praise or condemn anyone on the grounds they are a free willed self that made one choice but could have chosen something else. There is no evidence that such a situation is possible in our Universe. Demonstrate otherwise and I will be thrilled.

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    Default Re: Russia's economic future

    The longer term future of Mongolia isn’t looking too bright.
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    Default Re: Russia's economic future

    Quote Originally Posted by john welsford View Post
    Between the casualties in the Ukraine, and those who fled Russia to avoid being drafted into the army, Russias population of working age men has been severely reduced. This at a time when they already have an imbalance due to low birthrates and previous emigration of younger people, in particular those with good education and skills. That leaves Russia in a parlous state looking to the future.
    Foreign investment, and the people that that investment took into Russia, skilled people plus capital, has fled, so much of their oil and manufacturing industry is now lacking those skills.
    Much of the conscription has been among the smaller ethnic groups, outside Moscow, those are the farmers, the miners, the working classes, without whom there is no produce, nothing for the office workers and management to do.

    Its a very scary prospect, not just for Russians, but for the world. All of us.

    Check out Joe Bloggs on YouTube for a series of objective and fact based reports on Russias economic future.

    John Welsford
    I agree John.

    Another dimension is that Putin's power base (money, 'cause its not a democracy) is focused in St Petersburg and Moscow. Hence the mobilisation has barely touched these places. The young men there seem blissfully unaware of their privilege. A political awareness Putin has done a lot to nurture. He doesn't want to upset it by sending the sons of his 'friends' to the front. So he bleeds the regions dry of their productive youth.

    I wouldn't be surprised if famine became a thing in regional Russia. Atrocious conditions are already in train in places like Yakutia in Siberia, where one town of 300 pax was drained of 50 men just as they were preparing for winter. The people of the 'Republic of Shaka' have little to no ethnic connection to the people of Moscow and St. Petersburg. How much poverty and pain will they tolerate for the privilege of send their men to be blown to pieces for Putin?
    It's all fun and games until Darth Vader comes.

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    Default Re: Russia's economic future

    Untitled.jpg

    I've checked their demographics. Men aged 18-35 highlighted.
    They don't exactly have a large pool of young boys to send to their deaths, this could explain why the mobilisation is so keen to include 30+ and even 40+ men.
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    Default Re: Russia's economic future

    There's been a discussion on whether or not we should let Russian draft evaders into our countries. I realize that quite a few of the draft evaders were pro war as long as someone else took the risks and these deserve to reap what they've sown, but some may have been opposed to both Putin and the war but too scared/coward to protest much.

    Apart from the humanitarian aspect, I think that we should let draft evaders into our country just for the purpose of draining Russia on workforce and on potential soldiers. There will be infiltrators and they constitute a danger in some countries bordering Russia. Move the draft evaders away from those countries and disperse them inside the EU. A few more Russian infiltrators than those we already have won't significantly endanger any EU countries except the countries bordering Russia or with internal conflicts possible to exploit.

    We'll have to be more aware of the danger of infiltrators, but that's a price we'll have to pay for waging war on the Russian economy by draining them on their workforce.
    /Erik

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    Default Re: Russia's economic future

    My hunch is that Putin has screwed ordinary Russians for at least 20 years, and possibly 50.
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    Default Re: Russia's economic future

    Quote Originally Posted by gypsie View Post
    I agree John.

    Another dimension is that Putin's power base (money, 'cause its not a democracy) is focused in St Petersburg and Moscow. Hence the mobilisation has barely touched these places. The young men there seem blissfully unaware of their privilege. A political awareness Putin has done a lot to nurture. He doesn't want to upset it by sending the sons of his 'friends' to the front. So he bleeds the regions dry of their productive youth.

    I wouldn't be surprised if famine became a thing in regional Russia. Atrocious conditions are already in train in places like Yakutia in Siberia, where one town of 300 pax was drained of 50 men just as they were preparing for winter. The people of the 'Republic of Shaka' have little to no ethnic connection to the people of Moscow and St. Petersburg. How much poverty and pain will they tolerate for the privilege of send their men to be blown to pieces for Putin?
    Its those regions that are being stripped of their working age menfolk that feed the ones in Moscow and St Petersburg, eventually thats going to catch up with Putin, no money to import food and I doubt that the sanctions that are in place would allow bulk shipments anyway, so there will be a lot of hollow cheeks all across Russia.

    How long before someone offs Putin? He's got nowhere to run to, nowhere to hide, other than perhaps a cell in the Hague.

    John Welsford
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    Default Re: Russia's economic future

    If that 'rumor' of putins serious illness is true - you won't have to wait long, and likely won't need anyone to 'off' him.
    There's a lot of things they didn't tell me when I signed on with this outfit....

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    Default Re: Russia's economic future

    Considering the particular bent of the Russian government against "others", I am sure taking men from the ethnic diaspora of outlying areas and sending them to fight in Ukraine was a feature, not a bug.

    I forgot where I was reading it, but sometime last winter - prior to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine - I was reading something about how Russian demographics were on an overall downward trend due to emigration, low birthrate, COVID deaths, problems with alcoholism, and a relatively low life expectancy. The article basically expected Russia to cease to be a player on the world stage if it didn't develop more diverse sources of income that weren't centered around fossil fuel, improve the standard of living and health care, and to stop the brain-drain from Russia to rest of the world.
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    Default Re: Russia's economic future

    Not to mention the Vodka problem. I have an old Brit diplomat's biography from around 1860, talks of the impossibility of any actual negotiations after mid day due to the Russian side being excessively drunk.

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    Default Re: Russia's economic future

    Quote Originally Posted by john welsford View Post
    Its those regions that are being stripped of their working age menfolk that feed the ones in Moscow and St Petersburg, eventually thats going to catch up with Putin, no money to import food and I doubt that the sanctions that are in place would allow bulk shipments anyway, so there will be a lot of hollow cheeks all across Russia.

    How long before someone offs Putin? He's got nowhere to run to, nowhere to hide, other than perhaps a cell in the Hague.

    John Welsford
    Slight drift - but germane to the idea of loyalty, or "we're all in this together".


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    Default Re: Russia's economic future

    Quote Originally Posted by George Jung View Post
    If that 'rumor' of putins serious illness is true - you won't have to wait long, and likely won't need anyone to 'off' him.
    Perhaps there's an opening for an ex-potus?

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