Dems are going to win.

[leikec]

The heck with it—I’m going on the record. Dems are going to win this election!


I think the polling is way off because current polling methodology is behind the times.

Voter turnout is well above 2018 levels right now. Everything is looking right for a big turnout, and this is absolutely a turnout election.

Jeff C

[Joe (SoCal)]

We've already voted by mail in all our local elections 100% strait dem ticket. I even took the time to look up every judge as look at who appointed them and if there was any R's involved they didn't get our vote. I will be doing the same thing in the midterms.

[CK 17]

Here’s what I’m seeing at the doors.

Strong Democrat doors have high enthusiasm. Literally 100% enthusiastic planning to vote.

a funny story from today. I rang a ring door bell and the husband answered remotely from work. I told him I was from the Democratic Party on a GOTV visit. He told me to get lost, they’re not supporting Democrats.

I turn to leave and the wife opens the door: “can I help you?”

me: “ I just was told by your ring doorbell your Republicans”.

her: “ I’m voting Democrat”

typical husband dic move. First time for me through the ring door bell.

[leikec]

Here’s what I’m seeing at the doors.

Strong Democrat doors have high enthusiasm. Literally 100% enthusiastic planning to vote.

a funny story from today. I rang a ring door bell and the husband answered remotely from work. I told him I was from the Democratic Party on a GOTV visit. He told me to get lost, they’re not supporting Democrats.

I turn to leave and the wife opens the door: “can I help you?”

me: “ I just was told by your ring doorbell your Republicans”.

her: “ I’m voting Democrat”

typical husband dic move. First time for me through the ring door bell.

She’s Republican at parties but Democrat at the voting booth.

Jeff C

[David G]

From your lips to the FSM's ears!!!

[Boatbum]

The heck with it—I’m going on the record. Dems are going to win this election!


I think the polling is way off because current polling methodology is behind the times.

Voter turnout is well above 2018 levels right now. Everything is looking right for a big turnout, and this is absolutely a turnout election.

Jeff C

Could you be more specific. No doubt there will be some Democrat victories. By win do you mean they will continue to control the house and senate, while gaining a majority of governorships and state legislatures? Or do you mean they will only hold control of the house and senate? Or do you only mean that they will outperform current polling? Or do you simply mean that even though they may lose a little here they prevented a "Red Wave"? You leave a lot up to interpretation.

As for polling being "behind the times".....on what is that based? There was certainly some problems with polling methodology in 2016 and there were some adjustments based on that which made the 2020 election a little closer to the predicted outcome. Most polls (not all) lean (R) or (D), and there are usually adjustments that are made to compensate so that the outcome is pretty close to what is expected. I believe in 2020 they were more favorable to Biden than the final tally

[David G]

Could you be more specific. No doubt there will be some Democrat victories. By win do you mean they will continue to control the house and senate, while gaining a majority of governorships and state legislatures? Or do you mean they will only hold control of the house and senate? Or do you only mean that they will outperform current polling? Or do you simply mean that though they may lose a little here and there but they prevented a "Red Wave"? You leave a lot up to interpretation.

He clearly means 'win'.

Every single race. Across the board. k

Lacking any further detail, what ELSE could he mean? And as long as we're dreaming... might as well dream big!!!

[leikec]

Could you be more specific. No doubt there will be some Democrat victories. By win do you mean they will continue to control the house and senate, while gaining a majority of governorships and state legislatures? Or do you mean they will only hold control of the house and senate? Or do you only mean that they will outperform current polling? Or do you simply mean that even though they may lose a little here they prevented a "Red Wave"? You leave a lot up to interpretation.

You really need a hobby…

Jeff C

[TomF]

I truly hope you're correct, Jeff. I think that there are a lot of "shy" Dem voters who live in Red households and/or communities. Just as there were a lot of "shy" Trump voters in 2020.

While I think there will be enough to win many close races, they'll be disputed as fraudulent. In some cases, with the cooperation of the very people who are supposed to ensure their legitimacy, and instead do the opposite.

My gut tells me that this may be the tipping point for a serious amount of violence.

[David G]

You really need a hobby…

Jeff C

And therapy. And classes in logic (philosophy dept.) and rhetoric (english dept.)...

[Boatbum]

You really need a hobby…

Jeff C

So just the Democrats are going to win? So if one Democrat wins one Senate seat even if they lose all others your prediction comes true? That is a worthless prediction for someone "going on record". So here is my prediction......

Republicans will win the house and will have a majority of at least 10 seats. The senate will remain 50/50 giving the Democrats control. And the GOP will pick up two more governorships than they have now.

[Boatbum]

And therapy. And classes in logic (philosophy dept.) and rhetoric (english dept.)...

You're a classy guy. Not much in substance but you never hesitate to take a shot. Since you seem to like correctness you should know that "philosophy" and "english" should be capitalized.

[Boatbum]

He clearly means 'win'.

Every single race. Across the board. k

Lacking any further detail, what ELSE could he mean? And as long as we're dreaming... might as well dream big!!!

Really. That is truly a big dream and completely unrealistic. Is that what you think too? FYI dreaming and predicting are two entirely different things. K?

[David G]

You're a classy guy. Not much in substance but you never hesitate to take a shot. Since you seem to like correctness you should know that "philosophy" and "english" should be capitalized.

I tried substance. It didn't penetrate...

[Boatbum]

We've already voted by mail in all our local elections 100% strait dem ticket. I even took the time to look up every judge as look at who appointed them and if there was any R's involved they didn't get our vote. I will be doing the same thing in the midterms.

I'm surprised you voted NO on Prop 29. That seemed like and easy Yes vote. Is there something about it that I am missing?

[Boatbum]

I tried substance. It didn't penetrate...

Troll

[David G]

Troll

See what I mean?

[Keith Wilson]

About the original proposition: I'm no better at predicting the future than any other mortal.

[Dunphy Snipe]

Something to consider here is that when polls have been wrong, and we all know they have been, the error almost always has been overstating Democrat strength. I'd be interested in an example of polling that overstated Republican strength. Just one example of what I'm saying about a Democrat bias in polling (and there could be a dozen) is the polling experts had Carter and Reagan neck and neck in the lead up to the election in 1980, and Reagan went on to win in a landslide with 489 electoral votes. I'm thinking the Republicans are going to do very well in two weeks, and it's a good thing too. I sure hope there won't be any "election deniers" in this crowd. It wouldn't look good.

Jim

[Gerarddm]

Michael Moore thinks so.

We voted yesterday, straight Democratic of course in keeping with my signature and sentiment.

In my mind the only way the Dems win is via a real groundswell of pro-Roe voters. All shall be revealed.

[icyb]

You're a classy guy. Not much in substance but you never hesitate to take a shot. Since you seem to like correctness you should know that "philosophy" and "english" should be capitalized.

That will be two threads ttt ok

[CWSmith]

Predictions are accurate when the voting fits the expected model.

The hope is that the overturning or Roe v Wade will alter voting patterns. Heavy turnout of voters now is one such departure from the model.

Fingers crossed!

[Joe (SoCal)]

I'm surprised you voted NO on Prop 29. That seemed like and easy Yes vote. Is there something about it that I am missing?

It requires on‑site Licensed Medical Professional at every Kidney Dialysis Clinic in an already short staffed environment that has been operating perfectly without the requirement. This is the third time a special interest has placed a proposition on the ballot putting life and the lives of 80,000 other dialysis patients at risk. Twice, voters have overwhelmingly rejected these dangerous propositions. PROP. 29 WOULD FORCE COMMUNITY DIALYSIS CLINICS TO CUT SERVICES OR SHUT DOWN—RISKING PATIENTS’ LIVES Dialysis patients, nurses and doctors strongly oppose Prop. 29. More than 80,000 Californians with failed kidneys need dialysis treatments three days a week to stay alive. Missing even a single dialysis treatment increases patients’ risk of death by 30%.

[Keith Wilson]

In my mind the only way the Dems win is via a real groundswell of pro-Roe voters.

I think the recent Republican threats to mess with Social Security and Medicare are going to have a significant effect too, particularly threatening to use the debt limit as a hostage- (i.e. hold a gun to the head of the US and probably the world's economy). Older voters are very important to Republicans, and that's not going to help them at all.

[P.I. Stazzer-Newt]

[leikec]

About the original proposition: I'm no better at predicting the future than any other mortal.

I’m putting my faith in the turnout numbers coming from early voting. I trust those more than analysis from people using outdated polling methods with minuscule sampling sizes.

Jeff C

[leikec]

Something to consider here is that when polls have been wrong, and we all know they have been, the error almost always has been overstating Democrat strength. I'd be interested in an example of polling that overstated Republican strength. Just one example of what I'm saying about a Democrat bias in polling (and there could be a dozen) is the polling experts had Carter and Reagan neck and neck in the lead up to the election in 1980, and Reagan went on to win in a landslide with 489 electoral votes. I'm thinking the Republicans are going to do very well in two weeks, and it's a good thing too. I sure hope there won't be any "election deniers" in this crowd. It wouldn't look good.

Jim

Reagan/Carter? How do you like your new Studebaker Lark?

Jeff C

[AlanMc]

i can't imagine a day where i vote straight down ballot for any political party.

[CWSmith]

I think the recent Republican threats to mess with Social Security and Medicare are going to have a significant effect too, ...

We have a potential senator running here and his words are being thrown back at him by the incumbent. I haven't heard a lot about this elsewhere and I'm worried it isn't on the radar as much as it needs to be.

i can't imagine a day where i vote straight down ballot for any political party.

I can now.

[TomF]

i can't imagine a day where i vote straight down ballot for any political party.

So, a "bad" or "indifferent" advocate of Constitutional democracy is worse than a "moderately good" authoritarian?

This is in fact the choice you're facing - provided that you're choosing those you support from either of the 2 parties with an actual chance of attaining office.

If you're arguing in favor of a 3rd party or independent candidate in what is a 2-horse race, I refer you to my disputes a couple of years ago with the late Jack Grebe.

[Osborne Russell]

i can't imagine a day where i vote straight down ballot for any political party.

Can you imagine a day where you vote straight down ballot against a political party?

[Joe (SoCal)]

i can't imagine a day where i vote straight down ballot for any political party.

Every single time since 2016. Before that I actually voted like a normal two party American then TFG came into office and the GOP did not reject him or vote to impeach him. So now vote straight down ballot for democrats. Hell I even voted for GHW Bush - NEVER AGAIN . The GOP is done in my book.

[Keith Wilson]

i can't imagine a day where i vote straight down ballot for any political party.

I used to think that too. Then one party vanished over the horizon to starboard, and today actually poses a significant threat to the survival of democracy in the US.

I would love to be able to vote for a Republican in good conscience. We need responsible competent conservatives.

[Joe (SoCal)]

[Tom Montgomery]

i can't imagine a day where i vote straight down ballot for any political party.

I once said the same thing. Then I awoke to what the Republican Party was up to. A vote for allegedly "reasonable" Republicans is only a vote for another enabler of the radical extremists.