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Thread: Dems are going to win.

  1. #806
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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by Boatbum View Post
    Yes, but with about 3500 more ballots to count in Boebert's district she is ahead by 2000 votes. Frish would need to outpace her by a 2:1 margin. I don't know if there is some reason to think that the remaining ballots are heavily favored to one side or the other.
    I'm not too familiar with some of the races, and nothing about Boebert as a candidate, so I had to look it up. The Independant reported essentially the same, but closer and a day old - an eternity.... In any case, looks like a recount is in the offing?

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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    By now, I think it's a foregone conclusion that the Reps will win the house, and that Boebert is one of the last few whose election will clinch it.

    But the margin will be in single digits. And the caucus' fracturing is made even more severe by Trump's announcement last night of his '24 candidacy. This won't be a "governing majority," it will be a caucus representing factions in a civil war. They'll be far less united even than they were under Boehner or Ryan.
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by TomF View Post
    By now, I think it's a foregone conclusion that the Reps will win the house, and that Boebert is one of the last few whose election will clinch it.

    But the margin will be in single digits. And the caucus' fracturing is made even more severe by Trump's announcement last night of his '24 candidacy. This won't be a "governing majority," it will be a caucus representing factions in a civil war. They'll be far less united even than they were under Boehner or Ryan.

    I agree that it seems to be a forgone conclusion, and I did note Trumps announcement. If/when it comes, this is a battle that has to happen within the ranks.

    I can only hope a good enough candidate emerges that can sideline Trump. Right now, it looks like Desantis but were talking about a lot of the same votes. Lot of time for all that though.

    Vern

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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by TomF View Post
    By now, I think it's a foregone conclusion that the Reps will win the house, and that Boebert is one of the last few whose election will clinch it.

    But the margin will be in single digits. And the caucus' fracturing is made even more severe by Trump's announcement last night of his '24 candidacy. This won't be a "governing majority," it will be a caucus representing factions in a civil war. They'll be far less united even than they were under Boehner or Ryan.
    It will be very close for Boebert and it will not be the 10 seat majority that I predicted.

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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by Vernon View Post
    I agree that it seems to be a forgone conclusion, and I did note Trumps announcement. If/when it comes, this is a battle that has to happen within the ranks.

    I can only hope a good enough candidate emerges that can sideline Trump. Right now, it looks like Desantis but were talking about a lot of the same votes. Lot of time for all that though.

    Vern
    George Conway said that the Reps will need to find a single candidate to challenge Trump, if they're gonna challenge him. Because a plurality of Republicans (maybe up to 40%) will be "always Trumpers," so in a multi-candidate contest, Trump's inevitable.

    That may be so. I don't think it's likely that the GOP will exercise the discipline to coalesce around a single competitor. It would have happened long since.

    Me? I'm rooting for the cheeseburgers' revenge by now.
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    I’d much rather see him campaign remotely in an orange onesie than choke on a cheeseburger.

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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    ^
    From your lips to God's ear.
    "They have a lot of stupid people that vote in their primaries. They really do. I'm not really supposed to say that but it's an obvious fact. But when stupid people vote, you know who they nominate? Other stupid people." -- James Carville on the plethora of low-quality GQP candidates in the mid-term election.

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    Oh, I'm counting on the cheeseburgers filling his arteries with goo. I'd prefer he ran his campaign from incarceration, but I'd settle for a coronary.
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    You guys are funny.

    I don't mind a fighter and I'll even acknowledge political reality - one does have to win to play the game. But some modicum of decency would be nice from our candidates.

    I was hoping he wouldn't run, now I just want to see him lose a fair fight - not choke on a cheeseburger.

    Vern

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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by TomF View Post
    George Conway said that the Reps will need to find a single candidate to challenge Trump, if they're gonna challenge him. Because a plurality of Republicans (maybe up to 40%) will be "always Trumpers," so in a multi-candidate contest, Trump's inevitable.

    That may be so. I don't think it's likely that the GOP will exercise the discipline to coalesce around a single competitor. It would have happened long since.

    Me? I'm rooting for the cheeseburgers' revenge by now.
    DeSantis is looking very likely.


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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    DeSantis is looking very attractive to those cynics/pragmatists who embrace Trump-ism but think that Trump himself is now a millstone. But he won't draw the never-Trumpers, for exactly the same reason.

    The Cheney and Kitzinger model is covertly attractive to all the Reps (and formerly Rep "Independents") who actually like the Constitution and the previous status quo about morality (be publicly moral if possible - but win). And those people won't vote DeSantis.
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    In my dreams, DeSantis gets the Republican nomination and Trump runs as an independent.
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by Vernon View Post
    You guys are funny.

    I don't mind a fighter and I'll even acknowledge political reality - one does have to win to play the game. But some modicum of decency would be nice from our candidates.

    I was hoping he wouldn't run, now I just want to see him lose a fair fight - not choke on a cheeseburger.

    Vern
    Your mistake is expecting a “fair fight”. So far he has gotten away with more lying and cheating than all eight billion of the rest of us put together. It’s time for him to suffer consequences for that, one way or the other. I’m starting to think maybe a cheeseburger has a better chance than Garland.

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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by TomF View Post
    DeSantis is looking very attractive to those cynics/pragmatists who embrace Trump-ism but think that Trump himself is now a millstone. But he won't draw the never-Trumpers, for exactly the same reason.

    The Cheney and Kitzinger model is covertly attractive to all the Reps (and formerly Rep "Independents") who actually like the Constitution and the previous status quo about morality (be publicly moral if possible - but win). And those people won't vote DeSantis.
    He's doing it in Florida & I think he can nationally.
    "If it ain't broke, you're not trying." - Red Green

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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by ron ll View Post
    Your mistake is expecting a “fair fight”. So far he has gotten away with more lying and cheating than all eight billion of the rest of us put together. It’s time for him to suffer consequences for that, one way or the other. I’m starting to think maybe a cheeseburger has a better chance than Garland.
    Oh, I'm not expecting that Trump will change his stripes. His behavior was evident from the moment he announced the first time and before. I had hoped he would have changed his stripes and become a bit more 'presidential', whatever that means anymore.

    I just want to see a better candidate thrash him soundly in any upcoming primary, maybe in the process forcing a little moderation. One can hope. Lord knows what he'd do after that.

    Vern

    Vern

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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Why would DeSantis want to run in 2024?
    If he is the nominee and wins, Trump will just blast everything he does.
    He is still relatively young. If elected, he would only be 54 at the end of two terms leaving him a political nobody for the remainder of his life. Why not wait until 2028 when the field is clear?
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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by Garret View Post
    He's doing it in Florida & I think he can nationally.
    You may be right. Certainly the "never-Trumpers" of the Lincoln Project etc. have long since identified that risk, pointing out that it's "Trumpism" which needs to be destroyed, and not merely the orange menace himself who needs to be overcome.

    I don't know, frankly, how to bring people out of a cult, secular or otherwise. Herself and I were chatting about it this morning - people need to hear a compelling, moving message delivered by someone they're predisposed to listen to with an open mind. For the Right, that could be someone like Jordan Peterson - who is still a regular on Joe Rogan's podcast, and behind his abrasive and dismissive manner ... says some very salient things.

    The very reasons Peterson's hated by the "woke Left" are why he's uniquely positioned to be heard by the "masculine" Right - and they'll hear him argue for personal integrity, for personal commitment to honesty, to accepting hard truths, to reliability, hard work. Also to personal ambition for achievement/status/prosperity ... but pursued only in ways which also benefit one's society. He's no libertarian, or cut-throat.

    That is, Peterson's actually encouraging young men to be Eisenhauer Republicans. And he's got an audience which had determined he was worth respect and an honest hearing from the "Before Times."
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rich Jones View Post
    Why would DeSantis want to run in 2024? If he is the nominee and wins, Trump will just blast everything he does.
    Interesting points. If he does run, I'd attribute it to ambition, and possibly a desire to save Trumpism from Trump.
    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations,
    for nature cannot be fooled."

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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by Vernon View Post
    I just want to see a better candidate thrash him soundly in any upcoming primary, maybe in the process forcing a little moderation. One can hope.
    A better candidate ?? What GOP Prez has been halfway honest or competent since Nixon ??

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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by TomF View Post
    . For the Right, that could be someone like Jordan Peterson - who is still a regular on Joe Rogan's podcast, and behind his abrasive and dismissive manner ... says some very salient things.."
    . . . "salient things" which he yanks right out from his wazoo

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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by TomF View Post
    You may be right. Certainly the "never-Trumpers" of the Lincoln Project etc. have long since identified that risk, pointing out that it's "Trumpism" which needs to be destroyed, and not merely the orange menace himself who needs to be overcome.

    I don't know, frankly, how to bring people out of a cult, secular or otherwise. Herself and I were chatting about it this morning - people need to hear a compelling, moving message delivered by someone they're predisposed to listen to with an open mind. For the Right, that could be someone like Jordan Peterson - who is still a regular on Joe Rogan's podcast, and behind his abrasive and dismissive manner ... says some very salient things.

    The very reasons Peterson's hated by the "woke Left" are why he's uniquely positioned to be heard by the "masculine" Right - and they'll hear him argue for personal integrity, for personal commitment to honesty, to accepting hard truths, to reliability, hard work. Also to personal ambition for achievement/status/prosperity ... but pursued only in ways which also benefit one's society. He's no libertarian, or cut-throat.

    That is, Peterson's actually encouraging young men to be Eisenhauer Republicans. And he's got an audience which had determined he was worth respect and an honest hearing from the "Before Times."
    Interesting, sort of where I'm at. I've watched Rogan's podcast a little, but don't follow it at all and I don't think I recall Peterson. I tend to search out news I'm interested in using a search engine in 'InPrivate' or 'Incognito' mode, then scroll through the first few pages.

    Watching the news for me is sort of background noise. I'll be on my work laptop with the TV streaming this or that.

    Vern

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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    I dunno if DeSantis might be worried that his own story arc would be passing by then.

    Besides, Alpha wolves don't die of old age; wolves don't become Alphas by waiting patiently.

    There's a real risk that DeSantis would alienate a good bit of the authoritarian movement if he is perceived to be weak, indecisive. DeSantis can't be implicitly willing to risk the movement's vitality out of deference to a failing leader whose decline puts the movement itself (and its members) at risk.
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by sandtown View Post
    A better candidate ?? What GOP Prez has been halfway honest or competent since Nixon ??
    George W, and the younger had his moments of clarity but was too much of an idealist if that's the right word, but you'll disagree. After Trump it's a harder question. I wanted Kascich, along with the majority of Ohio Republicans, but it was not to be.

    Vern

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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by TomF View Post
    I dunno if DeSantis might be worried that his own story arc would be passing by then.

    Besides, Alpha wolves don't die of old age; wolves don't become Alphas by waiting patiently.

    There's a real risk that DeSantis would alienate a good bit of the authoritarian movement if he is perceived to be weak, indecisive. DeSantis can't be implicitly willing to risk the movement's vitality out of deference to a failing leader whose decline puts the movement itself (and its members) at risk.
    I think DeSantis has some legal jeopardy with the whole flying immigrants thing. Also, I think that with his milquetoast performance in his debate with Charlie Christ, he is looks like a poor debater which makes him look weak to the MAGA crowd. He's great a pre-scripted, but doesn't appear to be good on his feet. Sadly, Biden made him look good by the Federal Government's effective hurricane response which got interpreted as a successful Florida hurricane response.
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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by sandtown View Post
    . . . "salient things" which he yanks right out from his wazoo
    Some, sure. I'm not a Peterson fanboy. But his wazoo isn't the source of most of his views.

    Long before Jordan Peterson ever became a public figure, he was a highly productive and professionally successful academic in Clinical Psychology. Graduated from Canada's best universities in the discipline, then studied and taught at Harvard, then came back to Canada's premier university (U of Toronto), where he's now Professor Emeritus. All this time, he's also maintained a clinical psychology practice - where his patients disproportionately actually got their lives together and thrived.

    All this over a decade before Peterson started to become a public figure in about 2010, mostly for his acerbic smacks at feminism, "wokeness" etc. Being belligerent (and entertaining) with people who aren't in the same command of the data is what got him profile among Conservatives etc., and lots of media attention.

    But people who came to listen to him gratuitously shut down "woke" interviewers etc. will then click on his other stuff. Will find him arguing (from his clinical experience) that the goal can't be Victory, because it's pretty certain that the morning after an argument your spouse will remember being squashed like a bug, and you've got to live together somehow. The goal, Peterson says, isn't Victory - but Peace. Actual peace, not some soft-focus imposter type.

    Peterson argues to these young men that such peace can only emerge from their personal commitment to living with integrity and accountability, to acknowledging and dealing with the truth of something as it is. And frankly from a commitment (which he says is more inherent in the Left) to compassion. To recognizing that in even the best and fairest social structures, there are people who'll fall apart, who'll crash - through their fault, or the mismatch of their temperament with what the market rewards, or personal catastrophe, or simply bad luck. Peterson argues (directly opposing the Trumpists etc.) that there's an obligation to assist these people, not least because we all hold the seeds of such failure and alienation in ourselves too. Compassion comes from realizing that there is really no "other."

    That's a message, frankly, that both the L and R need to hear. I don't know who's well positioned to deliver it effectively to the L - it certainly won't be Peterson. But he can be one messenger to the R, to people already inclined to listen to him.
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by Boatbum View Post
    So then where does a government disinformation bureau fit in? Isn't that the government deciding what information is able to be available to its citizens? How does that fly with freedom of speech?
    This is another Bilge anomaly. Being in the tail end of the Baby Boomer generation, my government schools taught me Hitler burned the books. I guess if you are slightly younger, or are Jello Biafra, it was Tipper Gore and the James Dobson Religious Right that burned the books.

    The truth in the end is that the administrative state has always burned the books, or in its real full scale censorship-subsidizes the culture and science that advances the long term internal goals of the state (not the electorate) to the point that dissenting views are starved out and displaced in the West as opposed to locked away in prisons or executed in poorer statist countries. Fritz Lang ran to the USA when Hitler admired Lang's 1927 German expressionist science-fiction drama film Metropolis and wanted Lang to make propaganda movies for the Nazis.

    For my Boomer experience, it sort of begins with the administrative state subsidizing Gloria Steinem's speech to the US Naval Academy in 1972 https://recoveringdemocracyarchives....naval-academy/ . The powerful state advanced speech that furthered a change in the cultural values of the electorate to fit long term social engineering goals of the statists.
    Last edited by Landrith; 11-16-2022 at 01:19 PM.

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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by TomF View Post
    Some, sure. I'm not a Peterson fanboy. But his wazoo isn't the source of most of his views.

    Long before Jordan Peterson ever became a public figure, he was a highly productive and professionally successful academic in Clinical Psychology. Graduated from Canada's best universities in the discipline, then studied and taught at Harvard, then came back to Canada's premier university (U of Toronto), where he's now Professor Emeritus. All this time, he's also maintained a clinical psychology practice - where his patients disproportionately actually got their lives together and thrived.

    All this over a decade before Peterson started to become a public figure in about 2010, mostly for his acerbic smacks at feminism, "wokeness" etc. Being belligerent (and entertaining) with people who aren't in the same command of the data is what got him profile among Conservatives etc., and lots of media attention.

    But people who came to listen to him gratuitously shut down "woke" interviewers etc. will then click on his other stuff. Will find him arguing (from his clinical experience) that the goal can't be Victory, because it's pretty certain that the morning after an argument your spouse will remember being squashed like a bug, and you've got to live together somehow. The goal, Peterson says, isn't Victory - but Peace. Actual peace, not some soft-focus imposter type.

    Peterson argues to these young men that such peace can only emerge from their personal commitment to living with integrity and accountability, to acknowledging and dealing with the truth of something as it is. And frankly from a commitment (which he says is more inherent in the Left) to compassion. To recognizing that in even the best and fairest social structures, there are people who'll fall apart, who'll crash - through their fault, or the mismatch of their temperament with what the market rewards, or personal catastrophe, or simply bad luck. Peterson argues (directly opposing the Trumpists etc.) that there's an obligation to assist these people, not least because we all hold the seeds of such failure and alienation in ourselves too. Compassion comes from realizing that there is really no "other."

    That's a message, frankly, that both the L and R need to hear. I don't know who's well positioned to deliver it effectively to the L - it certainly won't be Peterson. But he can be one messenger to the R, to people already inclined to listen to him.
    Peterson shows, once again, that being both intelligent and a complete damned fool can coexist in one human being.

    Jeff C
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boatbum View Post
    Yes, but with about 3500 more ballots to count in Boebert's district she is ahead by 2000 votes. Frish would need to outpace her by a 2:1 margin. I don't know if there is some reason to think that the remaining ballots are heavily favored to one side or the other.

    Boebert leads Frisch by 1,122 votes as of 4 pm yesterday, 15 November, according to the Colorado Secretary of State. Who should know.

    And there is zero information available that I can find either from the Colorado Secretary of State or from County Boards of Election as to how many ballots remain to be tabulated, or as to what counties have yet to complete their tabulation.

    Almost certainly going to be a recount. And likely litigation (if Boebert loses).
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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Boebert has reportedly led by 1,122 votes for days now, on CNN anyway.

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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by Vernon View Post
    George W, and the younger had his moments of clarity but was too much of an idealist if that's the right word, but you'll disagree. After Trump it's a harder question. I wanted Kascich,
    Correct, I disagree. Dubya lied prodigiously to launch a disastrous, illegal and vicious war on a country that was zero threat to the US.

    And his admin intervened directly to keep the housing bubble scams going, overruling states (like Ohio) that tried to stop it.

    Kasich was thoroughly corrupt - and he drastically changed tax policy to favor the wealthy. DeWine is corrupt, but not nearly as much as Kasich.

    Don't make me cite sources.

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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Oh, no need for sources, I could look them up for myself and I wasn't planning to cite any either. I'd have to go issue by issue anyway and I can't right now.

    You seem sincere, if pointed, in your beliefs and that's OK by me. I've no wish to argue about everything.

    Vern

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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by Vernon View Post
    Oh, no need for sources, I could look them up for myself and I wasn't planning to cite any either. I'd have to go issue by issue anyway and I can't right now.

    You seem sincere, if pointed, in your beliefs and that's OK by me. I've no wish to argue about everything.
    Many of your posts are a good contribution to the discussion, and I read them with attention.

    I do not claim that my word should be the last on anything.

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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Mike Garcia was declared winner of California 27 giving the GOP control of the house.

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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by Boatbum View Post
    Mike Garcia was declared winner of California 27 giving the GOP control of the house.

    Wow, that took a little while. The OP was closer that many suspected.
    I jumped out to a article only 10 minutes old and they confirm that the GOP will win control of the house.

    The other side of the page had another article of interest.
    A few clips below. I'm not at all surprised Pence would weigh in so soon after Trumps announcement.

    Former Vice President Mike Pence said in a CNN town hall Wednesday night that Republicans will “have better choices” in the 2024 presidential race than former President Donald Trump

    and

    “The other thing that I’ve heard consistently is the American people are looking for new leadership -- leadership that will unite our country around our highest ideals, leadership that will reflect the civility and respect that most Americans have for each other,” Pence said.

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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Ms. Nancy did an amazing job of guiding a narrow majority in the House.

    I really doubt that any Republican House majority leader will come close to doing that.

    Way too many lunatics on that side of the aisle

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