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Thread: Dems are going to win.

  1. #421
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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by willin woodworks View Post
    Birds of a feather eh Boatbum? You're not alone....
    You really should stop trolling. You are not adding anything to the conversation, just being antagonistic. Totally unnecessary.

  2. #422
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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by Boatbum View Post
    I think he is very sincere. An ideologue, but he is not the only one in the bilge like that.
    You may well be right. I am trying with spectacular failure to discuss politics with my most "conservative" relative. I'm trying to learn how to break through the armor and start a real dialog. I am not succeeding and that makes me think that trying to do it with someone I don't know is doomed to failure.

    But I keep watching and thinking.
    "Where you live in the world should not determine whether you live in the world." - Bono

    "Live in such a way that you would not be ashamed to sell your parrot to the town gossip." - Will Rogers

    "Those are my principles, and if you don't like them... well, I have others." - Groucho Marx

  3. #423
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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Good turnout in my town today and very few people holding campaign signs. According to the polls, there are lots of close races.

    One thing bothered me. There were three state constitution questions and two of them were linked under a single vote. I don't like that. They were logically unrelated.
    "Where you live in the world should not determine whether you live in the world." - Bono

    "Live in such a way that you would not be ashamed to sell your parrot to the town gossip." - Will Rogers

    "Those are my principles, and if you don't like them... well, I have others." - Groucho Marx

  4. #424
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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    As demonstrated here, you can't really have a discussion with someone who is an hyper-partisan. There's no 'give', there, no willingness to consider 'I might be wrong', a reconsideration of a held position. Not to mention those we encounter intent only on impressing their views on others, or the political influencers/trolls.
    There's a lot of things they didn't tell me when I signed on with this outfit....

  5. #425
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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by CWSmith View Post
    Good turnout in my town today and very few people holding campaign signs. According to the polls, there are lots of close races.

    One thing bothered me. There were three state constitution questions and two of them were linked under a single vote. I don't like that. They were logically unrelated.
    likely done purposely - if you want 'one', ya gotta vote for 'both', however repugnant.
    There's a lot of things they didn't tell me when I signed on with this outfit....

  6. #426
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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by CWSmith View Post
    You may well be right. I am trying with spectacular failure to discuss politics with my most "conservative" relative. I'm trying to learn how to break through the armor and start a real dialog. I am not succeeding and that makes me think that trying to do it with someone I don't know is doomed to failure.

    But I keep watching and thinking.
    I think that if you and he are trying to listen and speak respectfully, then that is the best you can do. I try to remind myself that the person I disagree with is sincere in their beliefs even when they are significantly different from mine - it helps even if it does not lead to agreement. I will say that trying to listen to others has caused my opinions to shift in some instances.

  7. #427
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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    my vote is in. no down ballot party vote

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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    I try to remind myself that very frequently, people I disagree with are applying values which I objectively think are very fine, to "facts" which aren't true.

    But if those "facts" were true, their responses would perhaps be more appropriate. How would you react if you actually believed that people down the street were kidnapping children, brutalizing them sexually, before murdering the kids and drinking their blood?

    "Garbage in, garbage out" doesn't apply only to computer coding.
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  9. #429
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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by Boatbum View Post
    I think that if you and he are trying to listen and speak respectfully, then that is the best you can do. I try to remind myself that the person I disagree with is sincere in their beliefs even when they are significantly different from mine - it helps even if it does not lead to agreement. I will say that trying to listen to others has caused my opinions to shift in some instances.
    The problem is that the "news" sources on the right use dishonest tactics. They change the facts, change the subject, and teach a strategy of trying to control the dialog. Again, read the end to that post I pointed to where he refused to discuss the obvious example that proved all his comments wrong. That isn't respectful and you can't allow someone to control the dialog in that manner.
    "Where you live in the world should not determine whether you live in the world." - Bono

    "Live in such a way that you would not be ashamed to sell your parrot to the town gossip." - Will Rogers

    "Those are my principles, and if you don't like them... well, I have others." - Groucho Marx

  10. #430
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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    CW thinks his news sources aren't filled with lies....

  11. #431
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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Point them out. Use facts, not 'feelings'
    There's a lot of things they didn't tell me when I signed on with this outfit....

  12. #432
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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by AlanMc View Post
    CW thinks his news sources aren't filled with lies....
    I started following Twitter so that I could read the court documents etc. on which journalists based their published reports. And then followed the journalists whose reporting honestly described what the documents said.

    We're finite, we humans. There's no way any of us can be expert in everything, or even know all that can be known in areas where we have genuine expertise. So it's important to apply critical thinking skills to discern whose expertise to trust - how we'd know, how we'd periodically verify.

    It's uncomfortable, concluding that some info source one finds attractive ... isn't trustworthy. And that another that one is repelled by ... is. But it's the price of being a responsible adult.
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by TomF View Post
    I started following Twitter so that I could read the court documents etc. on which journalists based their published reports. And then followed the journalists whose reporting honestly described what the documents said.

    We're finite, we humans. There's no way any of us can be expert in everything, or even know all that can be known in areas where we have genuine expertise. So it's important to apply critical thinking skills to discern whose expertise to trust - how we'd know, how we'd periodically verify.

    It's uncomfortable, concluding that some info source one finds attractive ... isn't trustworthy. And that another that one is repelled by ... is. But it's the price of being a responsible adult.

    sadly, we have to be our own journalists these days

  14. #434
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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by Boatbum
    I try to remind myself that the person I disagree with is sincere in their beliefs even when they are significantly different from mine - it helps even if it does not lead to agreement. I will say that trying to listen to others has caused my opinions to shift in some instances.
    I detect a distinct lack of discrimination here. Not all beliefs are respectable. I have no doubt racists are sincere in their belief. I have no doubt Nazis in the 1930's and 40's were sincere in their beliefs. I have no doubt David Duke is sincere in his beliefs. I have no doubt QAnon cultists are sincere in their beliefs. No doubt many if not most psychopaths are sincere in their beliefs.

    Do you think all of these deserve a respectful audience?

    And while you are here... what do you think about the behavior of the Republican dominated Ohio Legislature deliberately defying the Ohio Constitution? Are you OK with lawless behavior to tilt the scales?
    .
    Last edited by Tom Montgomery; 11-08-2022 at 10:46 AM.
    "They have a lot of stupid people that vote in their primaries. They really do. I'm not really supposed to say that but it's an obvious fact. But when stupid people vote, you know who they nominate? Other stupid people." -- James Carville on the plethora of low-quality GQP candidates in the mid-term election.

  15. #435
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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by CWSmith View Post
    The problem is that the "news" sources on the right use dishonest tactics. They change the facts, change the subject, and teach a strategy of trying to control the dialog. Again, read the end to that post I pointed to where he refused to discuss the obvious example that proved all his comments wrong. That isn't respectful and you can't allow someone to control the dialog in that manner.
    You assume that only news sources on the right skew information? So I guess you didn't notice that all the non-right "news" sources dismissed Hunter's laptop as a Russian disinformation campaign? News agencies and their reports have innate biases as much as they may try to limit them. It is inescapable - no person can be perfectly neutral and news organizations are made up of people. I think you would be better served to assume that all news has a right or left bias and try to sort out the facts for your self.

  16. #436
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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by AlanMc View Post
    sadly, we have to be our own journalists these days
    'These days'? Humans have always sometimes lied, but it has never been easier to fact-check your sources and figure out who's lying and who isn't. Of course, you have to want to.

    And honestly, you simply can't 'be your own journalist'. Let's say I want to find out what happened in the recent Brazilian elections. How would I do that without relying on people who live there, speak the language, and know far more about Brazilian society, history and politics than I ever will? How would I find out about elections in Huntsville Alabama, for that matter? I don't live there, I don't have time to go there and talk to people and do my own journalism. You have to rely on secondary sources, since time and energy and attention are finite. That's why it's very important to pick ones that at least get the facts right.
    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations,
    for nature cannot be fooled."

    Richard Feynman

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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Wilson
    And honestly, you simply can't 'be your own journalist'. Let's say I want to find out what happened in the recent Brazilian elections. How would I do that without relying on people who live there, speak the language, and know far more about Brazilian society, history and politics than I ever will? How would I find out about elections in Huntsville Alabama, for that matter? I don't live there, I don't have time to go there and talk to people and do my own journalism. You have to rely on secondary sources, since time and energy and attention are finite. That's why it's very important to pick ones that at least get the facts right.
    Meh. You have your facts and I have mine. Right Dunphy and AlanMc and Boatbum? Don't we create our own reality?
    "They have a lot of stupid people that vote in their primaries. They really do. I'm not really supposed to say that but it's an obvious fact. But when stupid people vote, you know who they nominate? Other stupid people." -- James Carville on the plethora of low-quality GQP candidates in the mid-term election.

  18. #438
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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    See my signature line. It's not only true about rockets.
    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations,
    for nature cannot be fooled."

    Richard Feynman

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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Montgomery View Post
    Meh. You have your facts and I have mine. Right Dunphy and AlanMc and Boatbum? Don't we create our own reality?
    I think Keith's example is a good one. I don't have access to all the news sources of a news organization so I have to rely on their reporting to some degree. What I will do though is try to reads the reporting of a left and right leaning news source particularly with regard to analysis. That might lead me to an internet search for further information.

  20. #440
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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by Boatbum
    I think Keith's example is a good one. I don't have access to all the news sources of a news organization so I have to rely on their reporting to some degree. What I will do though is try to reads the reporting of a left and right leaning news source particularly with regard to analysis. That might lead me to an internet search for further information.
    When one confuses reportage (fact) with analysis and commentary one is lost.

    This thread alone has provided examples of people moved by analysis and commentary to fact-free opinion.
    "They have a lot of stupid people that vote in their primaries. They really do. I'm not really supposed to say that but it's an obvious fact. But when stupid people vote, you know who they nominate? Other stupid people." -- James Carville on the plethora of low-quality GQP candidates in the mid-term election.

  21. #441
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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Montgomery View Post
    When one confuses reportage (fact) with analysis and commentary one is lost.

    This thread alone has provided examples of people moved by analysis and commentary to fact-free opinion.
    Okay.....


  22. #442
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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Also, remember that telling actual lies; i.e. verifiably false statements about objective reality, is the amateur's way of deceiving (although it works all too often). Carefully-chosen true facts, partial truths, are harder to catch and often more effective.
    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations,
    for nature cannot be fooled."

    Richard Feynman

  23. #443
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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Wilson View Post
    Also, remember that telling actual lies; i.e. verifiably false statements about objective reality, is the amateur's way of deceiving (although it works all too often). Carefully-chosen true facts, partial truths, are harder to catch and often more effective.
    Or the facts of omission. It is as important to look at what is not reported in addition to what is reported.

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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by AlanMc View Post
    sadly, we have to be our own journalists these days
    No, probably not. It's a particular interest for me - I started following politics when I was about 14, got 2 degrees (and most of a PhD) in different aspects of politics, and have spent a working life doing policy work in a few different sectors. So I've always wanted to dig in deeper, uncover the spin, and frankly work to get the best policy results for the population regardless of the party in power.

    But there are damned few of me, and that's probably a good thing. We need people who are as committed and expert in their own fields. I'd be hopeless trying to build technology or software. Even more hopeless running a retail business, or sourcing/producing goods for retail. They know things - and know how to find out things - that I don't even know I'm ignorant about. And I benefit from it.

    A Constitutional democratic form of government requires an "informed electorate" though. That's why a responsible, honest "4th Estate" (media sector) is crucially important. It needs to be self-policing in the same way that associations of Chartered Accountants or Engineers or Physicians are self-regulating, with internal norms and requirements that one can only really understand fully if you're in that business. And the rest of us need to be able to rely on facts reported ... being facts.

    And that's exactly what's fallen apart. And no, it hasn't fallen apart in a "both sides are the same and equally culpable" way. There is no equivalent on "the other side" to FOX or the more extreme spinoffs like OAN etc. There's no equivalent on "the other side" to Infowars, or Bannon's "War Room." It there were, we'd see those people hauled into court and fined upwards of $1B for lies and defamation, like Alex Jones was recently.

    This isn't a uniquely American problem; this exploitation of previously unregulated media to lie, to grift, to spew disinformation - it's global. No country or group of countries has as yet figured out how, in a Democratic system, one can effectively regulate this while still supporting individual rights. Not European nations, not Canada or AUS or NZ, nobody yet.

    And if we don't sort it, authoritarianism of various kinds will become normative again. Because people can be far too easily deceived, can be convinced of things which simply aren't true. Especially when education systems have been stripped of the curricula teaching critical thinking skills which enable people to see through rhetoric and demagoguery.

    It's in the interest of demagogues, of course, to make sure that average people don't have ways to learn such skills.
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

  25. #445
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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Just noticed that fivethirtyeight just handicapped the election slightly in the favor of the GOP. Didn't see that coming.

    Screenshot 2022-11-08 110717.jpg

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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Montgomery View Post
    And while you are here... what do you think about the behavior of the Republican dominated Ohio Legislature deliberately defying the Ohio Constitution? Are you OK with lawless behavior to tilt the scales?.
    I can assure you that millions of right wing Ohioan are indeed OK with that.

    There go-to defense is that "Vern Riffe did it too!"

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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by Boatbum View Post
    Just noticed that fivethirtyeight just handicapped the election slightly in the favor of the GOP. Didn't see that coming.

    Screenshot 2022-11-08 110717.jpg
    Hard to believe you didn't see that coming. It's been moving that way for several months.

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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by johnw View Post
    Hard to believe you didn't see that coming. It's been moving that way for several months.

    It has been moving gradually into the GOP favor but only for the past 6 weeks before which it greatly favored the Democrats (at one point Democrats had an 80% probability). However, it has rarely moved more than one percentage point in a day and has hovered between 54-55% for the GOP for the past week. Yesterday morning it was 54% and by the end of the day to jumped to 59 % - A 5% jump in just a few hours.

  29. #449
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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Controlling the means of production is one thing.

    Controlling the communication with that means getting
    screwed for sure.
    Elon Musk Tells Twitter Followers to Vote for a Republican Congress

    • ‘I recommend voting for a Republican Congress,’ Musk says
    • Tesla CEO said in May he could no longer support Democrats

  30. #450
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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    I hope (and trust) 538 is wrong. Their model is an adjusted average of polls.

    I think there's even more trouble with polling this time than recently, in part because of reticence among women to describe their motivations based on abortion, and partly because polling will underestimate young voter participation.

    You'll also know that the art of polling is in how questions are written, and the order in which they're presented. You can get statistically significant differences, manipulating those 2 things. So if you're interested in objectivity ... you do language and question testing to determine how to strip out bias.

    OTOH, what if you wanted to introduce bias, say, into a model that aggregates polls?

    I've seen reporting a late-campaign bump in polls included in 538 and other models which were sponsored by Republicans or R-leaning advocacy groups etc.. Which polls exhibit some of the R-leaning bias one has come to anticipate (e.g. from Rasmussen), but which dump into the 538 models exactly at a time when such bias would gently affect the aggregate modeling.

    That is, GOP strategists intend to mess with the accuracy of 538 and other aggregate models, to discourage Dem voting ("there's no point, the Reps are ahead") and motivate Rep voting ("we've got them on the back foot - go and vote and finish this thing!"). It's a psy-op. Don't fall for it.
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  31. #451
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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by Boatbum View Post
    You assume that only news sources on the right skew information? ...
    I think the nightly news on the major networks make a genuine effort to be correct. So does the NYT. They don't continue to repeat the claim that Biden stole the election despite a complete lack of evidence. They don't claim that school students are using litter boxes. They don't exaggerate the already real problem of fentanyl to create hysteria. They aren't claiming that Jan 6 was instigated by liberals.

    Yes, I think my news sources are not dramatically skewed even though they may be imperfect.
    "Where you live in the world should not determine whether you live in the world." - Bono

    "Live in such a way that you would not be ashamed to sell your parrot to the town gossip." - Will Rogers

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  32. #452
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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dunphy Snipe View Post
    Republicans certainly gerrymander, but they didn't start it, and Democrats are every bit as good at doing it. I know that your collective heads may explode here, but I used to teach Civics.
    Sorry, but you're completely wrong about the bolded bit. Republican gerrymandering these days is far more effective than any gerrymandering in the past has ever been. The science has advanced a loooooooong way since Eldrich Gerry. Pinpoint precision with absolutely measurable results, resulting in unbeatable gerrymanders for the foreseeable future in places like Wisconsin. (Which, being a resident, AND a civics teacher, you should probably know).

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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    The thing is districting maps are updated every ten years to coincide with the constitutionally mandated federal census. The party in charge of the state's legislature gets to draw the maps. The Republicans have controlled the WI state legislature for quite some time, and as a result, we are using their map. Places like NY, I'm thinking, have drawn their map pretty effectively to help Democrats.

    The question arises if state legislatures don''t draw the lines, who should? I haven't really studied this, but there are federal guidelines that have been hammered out over the years that courts use to settle disputes that arise. I know the latest WI map was challenged in court and survived with maybe just minor changes.

    In a perfect world, there would be a better system, but I suspect neither party would be willing give up gerrymandering as a politically driven process. Changing the WI districting map could be done if the Democrats control the state legislature at the time of the next census. In the end, it is up to the voters, and maybe that's the best we can do.

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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Quote Originally Posted by CWSmith View Post
    I think the nightly news on the major networks make a genuine effort to be correct. So does the NYT. They don't continue to repeat the claim that Biden stole the election despite a complete lack of evidence. They don't claim that school students are using litter boxes. They don't exaggerate the already real problem of fentanyl to create hysteria. They aren't claiming that Jan 6 was instigated by liberals.

    Yes, I think my news sources are not dramatically skewed even though they may be imperfect.
    And yet the New York Times said that the Hunter Biden laptop was Russian Disinformation until verifying its authenticity two year later. Most media outlets carried the story that Abrams had her last election stolen - or at least they repeated what she said without contradicting its veracity. I think all news media outlets intend to be unbiased, but they are made up of people that have a variety of education, religious, scientific, cultural and experiential experiences. I am certain that reporters endeavor to be precise and unbiased, but it is no more possible than it is to generate truly random numbers from a formula. You are a byproduct of the events that got you to where you are. Add to this that some newer theories that journalists should NOT be impartial and it really gets unreliable.

    Perhaps you mean the difference between knowingly misreporting information and doing it more innocently. But even there, the evidence was there from the beginning that the Hunter Biden laptop was legitimate, but no one followed up or even asked. Media bias at its worst and by every major news outlet.

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    Default Re: Dems are going to win.

    Which suggests the utility of a Federal voting act, which sets the criteria by which the Federal House and would accept and seat the representatives to the Federal body allegedly representing citizens in Federal districts.

    While the Constitution does indeed describe the authority for States to run elections (with some caveats), the Federal House (and Senate, IIRC) have authority over members they find acceptable to seat, implied by their authority to expel the same.
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

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