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Thread: Any hydrologists in the house?

  1. #1
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    Default Any hydrologists in the house?

    DATELINE FT MEYERS FLORIDA: Forcasters are discussing the possibility of a 12 to 18 foot (3.5 to 5.5M) storm surge. The highest point in Ft Meyers is 10 feet (3M) above sea level.

    And some folks plan to hunker down.
    ITS CHAOS, BE KIND

  2. #2
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    Default Re: Any hydrologists in the house?

    Considering the highest elevation in Florida is 345 feet, there's a lot of coastline that is going to be inundated by 12-18' storm surge.
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
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    Default Re: Any hydrologists in the house?

    Going to get a bit damp....

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    Default Re: Any hydrologists in the house?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Bow View Post
    And some folks plan to hunker down.
    I wonder if those same people believe in global warming?
    "Where you live in the world should not determine whether you live in the world." - Bono

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    Default Re: Any hydrologists in the house?

    BIL's condo in Ft Meyers area is on third floor of a condo. He plans to fly out to Illinois on Fri, if he can get to the airport.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Canoez View Post
    Considering the highest elevation in Florida is 345 feet, there's a lot of coastline that is going to be inundated by 12-18' storm surge.

    Looks like Hurricane Ian is going to nail Fort Myers on the nose. The town of Fort Myers Beach is on a barrier island, Estero Island. Not going to be much left of it, I don't think: high ground on Estero Island is 13 feet above sea level.

    Sanibel Island's worse: high ground there is just 3 feet above sea level.
    You would not enjoy Nietzsche, sir. He is fundamentally unsound. P.G. Wodehouse (Carry On, Jeeves)

  7. #7
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    Default Re: Any hydrologists in the house?

    Wonder if NOAA and the 53rd have moved aircraft out of Lakeland, FL?
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
    -William A. Ward



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    Default Re: Any hydrologists in the house?

    Quote Originally Posted by Nicholas Scheuer View Post
    BIL's condo in Ft Meyers area is on third floor of a condo. He plans to fly out to Illinois on Fri, if he can get to the airport.
    His 3rd floor condo may soon be the 2nd floor and later the 1st floor. I read that people are still moving to coastal areas in droves. Do they think FEMA to bail them out when the inevitable happens?

  9. #9
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    Default Re: Any hydrologists in the house?

    This is the storm surge in Naples, right now, well away from the eye.

    storm-surge.jpg

    Live feed from the Fort Myers ABC-TV affiliate:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XObsOutMlh8

    You would not enjoy Nietzsche, sir. He is fundamentally unsound. P.G. Wodehouse (Carry On, Jeeves)

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    Default Re: Any hydrologists in the house?

    The livestream is offline. Big surprise.

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    Default Re: Any hydrologists in the house?

    Will Randy Wayne White leave Doc Ford's house on sticks somehow surviving?

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    Default Re: Any hydrologists in the house?

    That's scary stuff, those fire engines under water in their depot means less help available.

    Sems that comms are going down and news feeds struggle.
    Last edited by skuthorp; 09-28-2022 at 04:29 PM.

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    Default Re: Any hydrologists in the house?

    No worry's, DeSantis will take care of it

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    Default Re: Any hydrologists in the house?

    I'd never really gotten how destructive hurricanes are, despite watching news coverage of many, until I read John D. MacDonald's novel 'Condominium'. Graphic, detailed, and very scary. Much recommended!
    David G
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    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

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    Besides physical destruction, water unleashes sewage, fuel and chemicals, electrocution threat, can conceal gators and snakes and more threats to life.

    Kevin


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    Default Re: Any hydrologists in the house?

    Quote Originally Posted by Breakaway View Post
    Besides physical destruction
    Is there a non-ignorable risk that Estero Island will simply get washed away? Looks like it could...
    WszystekPoTrochu's signature available only for premium forum users.

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    Default Re: Any hydrologists in the house?

    maps of population density over the decades in the affected areas

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/clima...cane-ian-path/

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    Default Re: Any hydrologists in the house?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Bow View Post
    DATELINE FT MEYERS FLORIDA: Forcasters are discussing the possibility of a 12 to 18 foot (3.5 to 5.5M) storm surge. The highest point in Ft Meyers is 10 feet (3M) above sea level.

    And some folks plan to hunker down.
    I think they should hunker up not down. climb Forrest climb

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    Default Re: Any hydrologists in the house?

    Read that only about 1/3 of the properties hit by this storm have flood insurance. One can imagine large areas being rendered uninhabitable owing to repeated devastation and cost of rebuilding to a storm-resistant standard.


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    Default Re: Any hydrologists in the house?

    Meantime...

    David G
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    https://www.facebook.com/HarborWoodworks/

    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

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    Default Re: Any hydrologists in the house?

    Its amazing how fast these events are forgotten unless, of course you live there. 6 weeks after Irma in 2017, I traveled to the keys to help salvage a sunken Trumpy motor yacht in Islamorada. The destruction was breathtaking. Many places, including the Waffle House we had our breakfasts in was still operating on a generator. Hadn't heard a word about the hurricane for weeks at home.

    irma1.jpg
    irma2.jpg
    irma3.jpg
    irma4.jpg
    Attached Images Attached Images
    You must be the change you wish to see in the world."
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  22. #22
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    Death toll in Fort Myers is now up to 74. Almost certainly going to continue to rise.

    And in other news, the Congress passed a stopgap relief bill to help those afflicted by Hurricane Ian.

    But not with the aid of a single member of Congress from Florida.

    Senator Scott voted nay, and Rubio didn't bother to vote. And not a single member of the House from Florida voted for the bill. Not one. Zero. Zilch. Nada.

    Perhaps Florida's Congressional delegation doesn't realize that every seat in the House is up for election in just a few weeks.

    Or maybe they're too stupid to understand retail politics.

    https://www.tallahassee.com/story/ne...an/8138004001/
    You would not enjoy Nietzsche, sir. He is fundamentally unsound. P.G. Wodehouse (Carry On, Jeeves)

  23. #23
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    Default Re: Any hydrologists in the house?

    I just heard from my elderly great-cousin in Naples.
    She and her husband live within a mile of the coast in a fancy retirement community with about 900 residents.
    They live on the third floor and all residents were advised to shelter in place because the storm was
    predicted to hit further north.
    They had a rough day, but no significant structural damage and power was only out for three days. One building had a generator so the staff could still feed them all with meals.
    The storm surge did not reach them, but the wind pretty much wiped out all the landscaping/trees and anything on ground level not firmly attached.
    Lucky people, indeed.
    Built in 1987, that place must be built like a brick outhouse.
    I was born on a wooden boat that I built myself.
    Skiing is the next best thing to having wings.

  24. #24
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    Default Re: Any hydrologists in the house?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rich Jones View Post
    I just heard from my elderly great-cousin in Naples.
    She and her husband live within a mile of the coast in a fancy retirement community with about 900 residents.
    They live on the third floor and all residents were advised to shelter in place because the storm was
    predicted to hit further north.
    They had a rough day, but no significant structural damage and power was only out for three days. One building had a generator so the staff could still feed them all with meals.
    The storm surge did not reach them, but the wind pretty much wiped out all the landscaping/trees and anything on ground level not firmly attached.
    Lucky people, indeed.
    Built in 1987, that place must be built like a brick outhouse.
    Almost all buildings built are built cinderblock exterior walls, so the roof is the only thing vulnerable to wind damage.

  25. #25
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    Default Re: Any hydrologists in the house?

    Quote Originally Posted by Boatbum View Post
    Almost all buildings built are built cinderblock exterior walls, so the roof is the only thing vulnerable to wind damage.
    Unless manufactured to heavy hurricane standards or covered by hurricane shutters, windows and doors are vulnerable to wind damage. Once the window is gone, hurricane driven rain will really ruin your interior.
    I was born on a wooden boat that I built myself.
    Skiing is the next best thing to having wings.

  26. #26
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    Default Re: Any hydrologists in the house?

    Quote Originally Posted by Boatbum View Post
    Almost all buildings built are built cinderblock exterior walls, so the roof is the only thing vulnerable to wind damage.
    that's not true, unless it was built to be hurricane resistant.

    The Florida building code has only required that since 2002.


    https://www.howtolookatahouse.com/Bl...e-michael.html

    Why did so many concrete block homes collapse in Mexico Beach during Hurricane Michael?

    Thursday, October 11, 2018

    Concrete block houses are supposed to be hurricane-proof. And yet a large swath of them were totally destroyed by Hurricane Michael in Mexico Beach, Florida a few days ago. “These were all block and stucco houses—gone,” the former mayor of the town, Tom Bailey, told a New York Times reporter. "The mother of all bombs does not do more damage than this.”

    So what went wrong? And does it mean that your concrete block home could suffer the same fate in next Category 4 hurricane? The answer lies in the year the home was built, since older homes do not have the required “continuous load path” of structural connections from the roof down to the foundation—like links in a chain—that has been mandated since the implementation of the statewide Florida Building Code in 2002.

    Most people think of the structural failure of a house as collapse. But falling down is only one way a structure can fail, and gravity is not always the culprit. A building can also fail upwards, when a hurricane creates a pressure imbalance that literally sucks off the roof; and it can fail sideways, under the lateral pressure of high winds. It is usually a two-step process during a hurricane: first, the roof is sucked off the walls, then the wind and/or storm surge knocks down the weakened walls.

    Newer block homes are required to have concrete poured down in the cells of the blocks at critical locations, such as at corners and around door and window openings, running from the bottom of the tie beam to the foundation. The concrete must be reinforced with embedded steel bars from top to bottom that ties it all together to resist the wind.

    Older concrete block homes, espcially ones from the 1960s and earlier, do not have this strong connection between the tie beam and the foundation. While the suction created under the roof during a storm is pulling upward on the roof structure, it is also tugging violently on the tie beam via the truss straps into it. That uplift on the tie beam opens up cracks in the weaker horizontal mortar joints in the blocks directly below the beam, causing the structural connection from the beam to the blocks below to eventually fail. Without the steel-reinforced connection between tie beam and foundation found in post-2002 homes, the walls must face the lateral wind loads as separate components and on their own. At that point, only their weight is resisting the wind and storm surge pressure—so severe in Hurricane Michael that it knocked train cars off the tracks nearby.

    Homes built in the last decade in the Panhandle also must be elevated above the estimated maximum storm surge level so that the water can flow under the home. Although a storm surge is a fairly slow, but continuous rise in water level over a brief time period—not a tidal wave—the weight of up to nine feet of water on one side of any wall exerts tremendous lateral force on it. You might think of it as a free-standing swimming pool wall, except that the water is on the outside instead of inside. Any wall below the elevated living floor of the home must be break-away type that is not structurally connected to the support columns, and specifically designed to collapse if necessary in a storm surge.

    Newer homes have further advantages over pre-2002 construction. They must have more and stronger nails connecting the roof sheathing to the trusses and sturdier straps connecting the trusses to the tie beam, along with storm-resistant windows and doors in the walls. All of these differences are why most of the recently built concrete block homes were damaged, but not destroyed in the hurricane.

    Incidentally, the statewide 2002 Florida Building Code that improved the hurricane resistance of new homes was a response to horrific damage caused by Hurricane Andrew in South Florida 1992. The storm was referred to as a “wake-up call” to building officials at the time. The Panhandle has not been required to meet the same "wind-borne debris” standards instituted for South Florida up until now, but will likely be upgraded to tougher standards soon.
    You would not enjoy Nietzsche, sir. He is fundamentally unsound. P.G. Wodehouse (Carry On, Jeeves)

  27. #27
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    Default Re: Any hydrologists in the house?


    Column: How the GOP counts on Democrats' goodwill to conceal its own cruelty

    “Republicans count on their enemies not to reciprocate their callous nihilism,” observes political scientist Scott Lemieux of the University of Washington and the Lawyers, Guns & Money group blog.

    https://www.latimes.com/business/sto...ster-aid-biden
    David G
    Harbor Woodworks
    https://www.facebook.com/HarborWoodworks/

    "It was a Sunday morning and Goddard gave thanks that there were still places where one could worship in temples not made by human hands." -- L. F. Herreshoff (The Compleat Cruiser)

  28. #28
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    Default Re: Any hydrologists in the house?

    While a contractor on Long Island, I saw the building requirements for hurricane resistance from nothing to going overboard.
    When I started back in 1980 or so there were none. By the time I retired around 2010, house framing had to have hurricane straps from the foundation to the peak of the roof on every stud and rafter. One hell of a lot of metal and thousands of Teco nails.
    I was born on a wooden boat that I built myself.
    Skiing is the next best thing to having wings.

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