It’s over.

[George Jung]

400 Americans are dying each day. We cannot accept this reality.




Katelyn Jetelina

Sep 13






We are losing ~400 Americans a day. In the last 7 days, we have lost 2,299 people. During August 2022 alone, we lost 15,284 Americans to COVID-19.
This means COVID-19 remains the third leading cause of death in our repertoire of threats. And it’s largely preventable. In the U.S., death rates are not back to pre-pandemic times; excess deaths are still 10% above “expected.” This is changing our average life expectancy. In fact, the U.S. experienced the sharpest two-year decline in life expectancy in nearly 100 years.







(Source: NVSS Vital Statistics Rapid Release)
We cannot accept this reality. So it’s important to recognize who is dying so public health officials, families, and communities can work together to decrease this toll. This isn’t a reflection of blame, but rather a measure of where we can do better.
Who is dying from COVID-19 today?
An incredibly simple question that is challenging to answer. Death records are delayed, and we have a very fragmented data infrastructure in the U.S. making it almost impossible to capture a national picture. Regardless, I tried to scrape together what we have.
Vaccination



It’s abundantly clear the majority of deaths continue to be among the unvaccinated (20% of Americans are still without even one dose).




(CDC)
In addition, there is a clear dose response with vaccines: the more vaccine doses one has, the more that person is protected from death. According to the CDC, vaccinated people with one booster had 3 times the risk of dying compared to people vaccinated with two boosters. Unvaccinated people had 14 times the risk of dying compared to those with two boosters. Interestingly, the under- or un-vaccinated are more and more likely to have been infected. So, models are no longer comparing vaccinated people to immune naïve; rather, they are comparing vaccinated (or hybrid immunity) to those with more and more infection-induced immunity. This indirectly highlights a positive effect of vaccines against death compared to infection.




(CDC)
We also see this phenomenon from data in Canada from the COVID-19 Hazard Index. For every 10 people over the age of 80 who are infected, 1 dies. The odds decrease with more doses. The population-level benefit is true across every age group.





Table by @MoriartyLab

[JimD]

Got the fourth jab yesterday. Going hiking today. I think I'm done with covid vaxxes.

[Canoez]

Got the fourth jab yesterday. Going hiking today. I think I'm done with covid vaxxes.

Got the Omicron specific booster - my fourth dose - yesterday, along with my annual flu shot. I don't think we're done with boosters, however.

[Joe (SoCal)]

Renee and are getting Omicron specific booster - our fifth dose along with our annual flu shot today. Thats why we have two arms

[Jim Mahan]

And the operating conclusion at this point is the same as it has been since trmp acted deliberately to allow this pandemic to occur in the first place—'it' isn't over until the reported infections, hospitalizations and deaths are very near what they were before the outbreak.

trmp didn't release the virus onto the public, not directly, but he did take deliberate unwarranted actions that allowed it to occur and have the early onset consequences of letting our national and international cooperative medical technical effort and resources lapse, and compound the natural rapid expansion of a highly contagious novel coronavirus.

Had he never been in our White House, we and the rest of the world would have had scientists and medical pros working on viruses, including at Wuhan, protecting us with early identification and warning, and had a different person been in the White House the overall government response would have served us better and most probably reduced the worst effects of the outbreak which became the worst pandemic since the Spanish flu a hundred years ago.

If someone, anyone, other than trmp had been in our White House, it is most likely that the anti-mask, anti-social distancing, essential business and travel only, and anti-vax response would've been contained to a very insignificant segment of our population, wackos like Bobby Kennedy Jr., and the dire consequences of that mass stupidity trmp inflicted would not have happened.

There are viruses. They will outbreak. We will continue to do scientific research and we will continue to have a proper governmental and health care industry response, and we will continue to need reasonable and adult cooperation by the general population, to avert the worst consequences.

What we really need now is to excise the most serious contaminant—trmp—and allow those infected to quarantine and self-isolate at home with daily doses of anti-demogogue, objective reality reporting until the fever passes.

[CK 17]

Renee and are getting Omicron specific booster - our fifth dose along with our annual flu shot today. Thats why we have two arms

Block off the next day. I did that last week.

[Ted Hoppe]

I don't think that people denied that co-morbidities were a dominant factor in Covid deaths. I don't see how your alternative approach to management of the pandemic would work. The hospitals would be overwhelmed.

Co-morbidities were not included so to be more sympathetic to the endangered population as a whole. Promoting a narrative that did not include who was dying was a ultimately more virtue signaling and gaslighting. It was easier to scare people in paralysis and fear rather than using logic and a sensible approach until we have a real solution which did not need such dramtic technological medical interventions for the greatest part of the population. As abhorrent as it is, our society is sick with obesity, lack of physical activity and poor diet - had much of the effort to get the population healthy with a proper nutritional diet and encouraged physical movement - perhaps this pandemic would have not be so deadly. It was far easier to wait for a for profit vaccine and wreck the social structure of society in an abundance of caution.

[Kevin T]

Renee and are getting Omicron specific booster - our fifth dose along with our annual flu shot today. Thats why we have two arms

Been vaxed, boosted and just got the omicron booster yesterday along with the flu shot. Upper arms mildly sore, but then again upper arms are always sore given the amount of earth moving and yard work of the last 6 months.

For the wife and I we are in mask whenever in a public building (grocery store, other retail locations etc.).

And for the foreseeable future we are going by the old military dictate: When command and leadership declare victory it's time for the battlefield grunts to tighten up the chinstraps, or in this case the face masks. ​Still covid free.

[WI-Tom]

My wife and I were very cautious about COVID. Masked up anywhere indoors except in family houses. Didn't go anywhere except grocery store, pretty much.

Now in Poland you'd think there was no virus at all. I've seen maybe 5-6 masks since the first of August. In these conditions, with no community precautions, I've concluded that masking wouldn't do much good if I'm the only one doing it. So, I haven't been careful at all anymore. I don't really like it, but that's just how it seems to be here. I haven't tracked the case rates or data here at all.

I suppose another case for both me and my wife might be just around the corner. We'll see.

Tom

[Ted Hoppe]

^ I do think wearing a mask on crowded public transportation going forward is not that silly. Being smart in this nearly post pandemic world as we turn to Fall and Winter is wise and we should be a cautious. Tom - I do believe you will be able to manage well in Poland. The food quality is very high and with changes to both your lifestyles - a good hedge against future variations, flus and colds that you may get.

I have had Covid 3 times despite being 4X vaxed and when in crowd or with strangers mask wearing when appropriate. My clients or others have little remorse in sharing their virus with me. It is all just a draw of luck. Being sick with Covid sucks - it also made me realize how much I must manage to be successful with my own health, diet and physical fitness matters. Riding a bicycle and long walks have become some of my best hours of the day. Getting vitamin D naturally plus taking supplements are the way forward.

[L.W. Baxter]

Co-morbidities were not included so to be more sympathetic to the endangered population as a whole. Promoting a narrative that did not include who was dying was a ultimately more virtue signaling and gaslighting. It was easier to scare people in paralysis and fear rather than using logic and a sensible approach until we have a real solution which did not need such dramtic technological medical interventions for the greatest part of the population. As abhorrent as it is, our society is sick with obesity, lack of physical activity and poor diet - had much of the effort to get the population healthy with a proper nutritional diet and encouraged physical movement - perhaps this pandemic would have not be so deadly. It was far easier to wait for a for profit vaccine and wreck the social structure of society in an abundance of caution.

"wreck the social structure of society"? is that what happened, ted.

but, yeah. it is easier to buy time for a vaccine with some temporary social interruptions than to get 100 million americans onto a ted hoppe-approved diet and exercise program, all hale and hearty in time to save them from a virus already in circulation. nevermind that plenty of healthy people were killed or otherwise harmed. our own friend rob, one of the leanest and meanest i know, lost his sense of smell, maybe for life. that is serious damage, that could have happened to any of us, and would have happened to more of us, without the behavioral precautions taken.

and it wasn't virtue signalling. it was real virtue, putting the needs of everyone--even those worthless overweight, infirm, and elderly!--on an equal footing. we don't know how much worse it would have been had we not (not really) "wrecked our social structure" in an effort to limit the pandemic. but, we do know, it would have been worse.

so, what do you think could have been done that was significantly different? and what would you call your plan, "get younger and skinnier and healthier or die"?

cripes man.

[George Jung]

I fully endorse LW's public service (not you, Ted) announcement!

More effort than I'd waste - but nicely done!

[Canoeyawl]

I fully endorse LW's public service (not you, Ted) announcement!

More effort than I'd waste - but nicely done!

The man is a genius...

[Canoez]

"wreck the social structure of society"? is that what happened, ted.

but, yeah. it is easier to buy time for a vaccine with some temporary social interruptions than to get 100 million americans onto a ted hoppe-approved diet and exercise program, all hale and hearty in time to save them from a virus already in circulation. nevermind that plenty of healthy people were killed or otherwise harmed. our own friend rob, one of the leanest and meanest i know, lost his sense of smell, maybe for life. that is serious damage, that could have happened to any of us, and would have happened to more of us, without the behavioral precautions taken.

and it wasn't virtue signalling. it was real virtue, putting the needs of everyone--even those worthless overweight, infirm, and elderly!--on an equal footing. we don't know how much worse it would have been had we not (not really) "wrecked our social structure" in an effort to limit the pandemic. but, we do know, it would have been worse.

so, what do you think could have been done that was significantly different? and what would you call your plan, "get younger and skinnier and healthier or die"?

cripes man.

[ERGR]

From Wikipedia, regarding the most common vaccine Swedes get:

The Pfizer–BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine (INN: tozinameran), sold under the brand name Comirnaty,^[2][24] is an mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine developed by the German biotechnology company BioNTech. For its development, BioNTech collaborated with American company Pfizer to carry out clinical trials, logistics, and manufacturing.^[35][36]

Another of the early vaccines we got:

Oxford-AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine was developed in collaboration with Oxford University and is manufactured by AstraZeneca and COVISHIELD, licensed to and manufactured by AstraZeneca-SKBioscience (AZ-SKBio) in South Korea.

Every vaccine wasn't from the US, and Trump most certainly was not in any way involved in the development of the vaccines above. EU "sponsored" development of several vaccines by guaranteeing to order thus making the risk manageable for the companies involved.

I don't know what difference Trump made for the development of vaccines in the US.

/Erik

[Ted Hoppe]

The vaccine was essentially a miracle. It was the first mRNA-based vaccine to be used in humans. I am amazed that it worked.

I don't see your point in describing it as a 'for profit' vaccine. The endeavor was a partnership of pharma and government.

it was also huge commercial venture. Big pharma is certainly not repaying the government for its cash, awards and unprecedented greenlighting of never tired treatments without the usual guardrails.

No doubt you have loved this as a scientist as an advancement. But as a wholistic approach to proper management of this pandemic where it was a perfect storm of a virus, bad overall health of the most vulnerable and the population at large - you have carefully avoided the elephant in the room consistently throughout and tired to discredit what should have been hand in hand response to this true awareness. As contributing factors - your avoidance and disregard of the whole picture and waiting for technology to solve what is essentially is a significant drop in quality food diets and lack of physical exercise crisis demonstrates once again the lack of real synergy between proper addressed health concerns and modern medicine.

[David W Pratt]

If the President has declared that the pandemic is over, does that mean that his emergency powers related to the pandemic have expired?

[Ted Hoppe]

L.W.'s post nicely lays out why there was no elephant in the room to consistently avoid and discredit.

I am not avoiding or disregarding anything, and I have not relied on technology to solve anything - I just can't see what management plan you would have proposed which would not have resulted in overwhelmed hospitals and a far greater number of deaths.

Even a blind scientist can see being healthier physically and having a quality diet was part of the solution. Rather than admit there is a point i have, you side step it.

FWIW - The death rate unfortunate for many was overblown for political effect. From Fall 2019 to Fall 2020, nearly most who died were previously infirmed or suffered from advanced age. We may not ever see the end the damage with all the mass worry and hysteria caused. Most here went relatively unscathed, many are better than before in wealth and luxury. Folks like you actually made money on your money and even took government payouts that caused inflation, crushed minimum wage jobs on main street and further alienated greater segments of our society.

As Lee points out - any other choice would seem heartless. Nevertheless - It is over and people are more selfish than ever and the richies got richer.

[Joe (SoCal)]

Even a blind scientist can see being healthier physically and having a quality diet was part of the solution. Rather than admit there is a point i have, you side step it.

FWIW - The death rate unfortunate for many was overblown for political effect. From Fall 2019 to Fall 2020, nearly most who died were previously infirmed or suffered from advanced age. We may not ever see the end the damage with all the mass worry and hysteria caused. Most here went relatively unscathed, many are better than before in wealth and luxury. Folks like you actually made money on your money and even took government payouts that caused inflation, crushed minimum wage jobs on main street and further alienated greater segments of our society.

As Lee points out - any other choice would seem heartless. Nevertheless - It is over and people are more selfish than ever and the richies got richer.

I personally know a 48 year old marathon runner with no body fat, eat super healthy, no co-morbidity who DIED from covid before any vaccine was available.

Anyone remember Boadway actor Nick Cordero who died at 41 after long battle with COVID-19
After more than three months of battling COVID-19, Broadway actor Nick Cordero died on Sunday in Los Angeles at the age of 41. Our Frank DiLella takes a look back at the performer’s career.
From his Tony nominated turn as a tap dancing gangster in “Bullets Over Broadway” to his most recent appearance as Sonny in “A Bronx Tale,” Nick Cordero was a Broadway favorite.
His wife, performer Amanda Kloots, announced his passing on social media on Sunday, saying, “God has another angel in heaven now.”



On the other side is this site https://www.sorryantivaxxer.com/

[Peerie Maa]

I think that COVID is over in the same way that influenza is over and polio is over.
We have the call to get our booster shots, either by appointment or at a walk-in center 10 miles away in the next town over.

[Paul Pless]

I personally know a 48 year old marathon runner with no body fat, eat super healthy, no co-morbidity who DIED from covid before any vaccine was available.

then you know me, who eschews all that healthy **** in favor of sloth, gluttony, and the miracles of modern chemistry who has had covid and came through unscathed

ted knows me too

i'm not an anti vaxxer though, that's the dse

[Joe (SoCal)]

then you know me, who eschews all that healthy **** in favor of sloth, gluttony, and the miracles of modern chemistry who has had covid and came through unscathed

ted knows me too

i'm not an anti vaxxer though, that's the dse

So you know Renee is a probably the healthiest, non smoker, exercises daily, eats a perfect diet and drinks a gallon of water a day. She got Covid in Italy. The reason was we were idiots and let our guard off with all the people from every where on earth with no masks on.

IMG_4743.jpg

[Jim Mahan]

Even a blind scientist can see being healthier physically and having a quality diet was part of the solution.

You're bordering on rude here, Ted.

"...being healthier physically and having a quality diet was part of the solution." is wrong. Of course any individual's health impacts his vulnerability. It's a non-sequitor. By your logic, people who heard about the covid outbreak should've gone immediately to a gym and signed up for weight-watchers, as a solution. It's not a solution to a new and immediate problem, for people to have been healthier prior to the new situation. A proper solution to a viral outbreak is to isolate the infected individual's and to try to prevent the spread using well understood methods, masking social distancing, and vaccines. There is no other viable solution.

A highly contagious and deadly new virus is suddenly infecting the population, with the spread continuing and increasing to the point that hospitals and ICUs and ERs and morgues are all backed up while the numbers of new infections and daily deaths continues to sky-rocket, 'getting healthy' isn't a viable option. It isn't any sort of program. And if people were resistant to wearing masks, and curtailing social activities, and non-essential activities, getting them to do calisthenics and chug veggie smoothies isn't going to work either.

FWIW [it's wrong; it's worth nothing]- The death rate unfortunate for many was overblown for political effect. [Baloney. How about anything that looks like evidence.] For nearly a year, nearly most who died were previously infirmed or suffered from advanced age. We may not ever see the end the damage with all the mass worry and hysteria caused. [You think the damage caused by mass worry and hysteria was worse than dying of a viral infection? The pandemic would've been a walk in the park if people had just remained calm and gone about their business being healthy instead.] Most here went relatively unscathed, [Says you. Show some actual evidence for this bold claim.] many are better than before in wealth and luxury [so some people benefitted financially from, what, living through the pandemic, not getting sick, or just being lucky, and they would've been even better off with or without the viral pandemic—which is it?]. Folks like you [you're pointing a finger at the rich scientist making bank on people's misery?] actually made money on your money [again, people with investments should have doubled down or gotten out of the markets because there was a viral pandemic, and that would've made it better or worse and for whom?] and even took government payouts [be specific, because that sounds like slander of corruption] that caused inflation and crushed main street [completely fictional conclusion.]

You're arguing that the payments made to people caused inflation and crushed maintstreet is misleading and disengenuous and wrong, to boot. People missing work because they stayed home to avoid being infected, or because they were infected or because they died, caused production and shipping interruptions, and closing businesses to keep people from congregating when congregating inspite of warnings was the thing that drove the pandemic infections and the consequential damage to business.

Had people followed all the guidance, some would still have gotten sick and some would have died, but a lot fewer of both. Businesses would've been able to re-open quicker, and shipping and stocks of inventory would've been less impacted. It wasn't bad policy or management by the government that made the pandemic as bad as it has been. It was the highly contagious and deadly virus and the fact that way, way too many people disregarded the guidance, and travelled anyway, and socialized anyway, and refused to wear a mask and then refused to take part in the vaccination program which has ultimately saved us more than any other thing.

If a vaccine had been somehow magically ready in the first week and everyone had gotten vaccinated as soon as it was available the pandemic would've been over before it started. The same can be said again, if somehow magically everyone had begun wearing a mask and social distancing and staying home except for genuine essential or emergency travel and services—the pandemic likely wouldn't have been one.

People not taking it seriously is what drove the pandemic to the extent we ended up with. While we were finally starting to do all those right things, the college kids were taking spring break, partying and laughing about it. At the same time, megachurches were congregating insisting that their Lord would keep them from needing a mask or vaccination. We suffered a colossal major hit to our well-being as nation, and not just the economy, because of the herd stupidity encouraged by trmp—who said it would be over when the weather warmed up, to drink bleach, and put a light up one's rectum—and his band of incompetent cronies, who counseled him that it would be a good way to thin the herd because the Democrat cities and poor people would be impacted more than the good rich people.

Not the government. Not Joe Biden. Not the scientists. Dummies. That's who made it as bas as it has been.

[Ted Hoppe]

^ with all due respect the vaccine does not prevent Covid. It only makes the symptom less sever and does not deliver immunity.

pretending that none of my points has merit suggests such a myopic view of the last 3 years. I do understand how you could come to that and get to your understanding. Carry on as you'd like.

The pandemic is over and we will live with a form of deadly Covid for most of our lives regardless of any presidential proclamation. Meanwhile more people are diabetics, fewer are inclined to engage in physical activity, more live within the digital world and we don't socialize in person much anymore. We just began to go back to the office but not willingly.

[Joe (SoCal)]

^ with all due respect the vaccine does not prevent Covid. It only makes the symptom less sever.

EXACTLY WE HAVE 4 VACCINES and Renees case was extremely mild. We lost 6 close friends back east before ANY vaccine was available.

[Jim Mahan]

You buy them books and send them to school and they eat the books.

[Paul Pless]

pretending that none of my points has merit suggests such a myopic view of the last 3 years. I do understand how you could come to that and get to your understanding. Carry on as you'd like.

how would you suggest we move towards a more holistic and healthier approach to fitness and diet and medicine as a society ted?

[Ted Hoppe]

We could begin to roll back high fructose corn sugars in most of the foods as well as grossly overdone saturated fats. We have the ability to serve non gmo food including wheat and grains, introduce quality food lunches to children in school, subsidize like Europe does affordable local farm to table choices, penalize companies profiting for selling garbage food, increase mass transportation with an effort to encourage foot and bicycle use, include gym memberships as part of one's healthcare insurance and have more open space for recreation. Maybe ending drive in counter service might help lead the changes.

that would be a good start.

[Paul Pless]

that sounds very 'socialized' ted
so you want more govt not less?

where do you think the political will for such lies?

[Ted Hoppe]

EXACTLY WE HAVE 4 VACCINES and Renees case was extremely mild. We lost 6 close friends back east before ANY vaccine was available.

I am sorry for your losses and Renee being so sick. I am not uncaring but would like to know if those lost had any preexisting conditions.

i got Covid in late 2019. At the time there were 5 flights a day to sfo from Wohan. I was sick as a dog. I got it again in late March from a sick client. I got it once more this past year. Would I want it again - no. 4 x vaxed and still got sick. We will live with this. The more we travel and meet others in person - the greater the chance of exposure. I have come to terms with it. You will eventually too.

[Ted Hoppe]

I am not side stepping anything. I asked you twice what your Covid pandemic management plan would have been for the country. I don't think that you have outlined anything for me to sidestep. Until then, as far as I can see your plan would have overwhelmed the hospitals, more than they were, and would have contributed to the death rate.

you can see my solutions above.

suppose the most vulnerable were lost early and the effective treatments were game changing - when would you suggest we address the why and the how with a plan to make folks healthier with the basics in quality health maintenance. Clearly there is more easy money made with junk food diets, inactive blobs mined for data and injections to fight the effects of exposure to other potentially sick humans.

[Joe (SoCal)]

how would you suggest we move towards a more holistic and healthier approach to fitness and diet and medicine as a society ted?

I lost almost 10 lbs in a month in Italy eating Pizza, Pasta, Cheese & Wine.

[amish rob]

Thanks for the shout out Lee. I am almost back to my beastly self, because Covid robbed me of my aerobic endurance as well as my sense of smell and job. I still don’t have a job or a sense of smell (well, I’m back to manual labor for money, so that’s nice), but I’m back to strings of 6-7 minute miles. I eat tons of saturated fat.

I have nothing else to add to this **** show of a thread.

[JimD]

Got the Omicron specific booster - my fourth dose - yesterday, along with my annual flu shot. I don't think we're done with boosters, however.

Mine was the Moderna Omicron booster. They took the opportunity to remind me that flu shots are available to me next week, I think. But I've only ever had one flu shot, several years ago, and doubt I'll get one this year, either.

[Ted Hoppe]

I lost almost 10 lbs in a month in Italy eating Pizza, Pasta, Cheese & Wine.

had you ate like that here you would look like a guy who vacations in asbury park.

CD8C1629-A158-42AC-A27F-09978A64250B.jpeg



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