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Thread: Most in US say they want stricter gun laws

  1. #36
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    Default Re: Most in US say they want stricter gun laws

    According to Reuters:

    By raw numbers, there were 19,350 gun homicides in 2020, with African Americans accounting for 62% of the total and white people 21%.

    You can work on gun laws or you can work on the problem.

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    Default Re: Most in US say they want stricter gun laws

    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Wright View Post
    According to Reuters:

    By raw numbers, there were 19,350 gun homicides in 2020, with African Americans accounting for 62% of the total and white people 21%.

    You can work on gun laws or you can work on the problem.
    what do you suggest specifically?
    Simpler is better, except when complicated looks really cool.

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    Default Re: Most in US say they want stricter gun laws

    Well….black people make up 16% of the population and account for 62% of the homicide victims (mostly of young black men by other young black men)
    Burying heads in the sand as to what is going on (black urban gang culture) sure hasn’t worked so far. But let’s just keep glorifying it in pop culture and see what happens.

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    Default Re: Most in US say they want stricter gun laws

    Quote Originally Posted by Decourcy View Post
    Well….black people make up 16% of the population and account for 62% of the homicide victims (mostly of young black men by other young black men)
    Burying heads in the sand as to what is going on (black urban gang culture) sure hasn’t worked so far. But let’s just keep glorifying it in pop culture and see what happens.
    how to fix it, specifically?
    Simpler is better, except when complicated looks really cool.

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    Default Re: Most in US say they want stricter gun laws

    Quote Originally Posted by Decourcy View Post
    Well….black people make up 16% of the population and account for 62% of the homicide victims (mostly of young black men by other young black men)
    Um - source? First, African-Americans are only 12.4% of the population, rising to 14.2% if you include people of more than one race (census data here). And 62% is notably higher than any source I could find. It's still a much higher rate than the general population.
    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations,
    for nature cannot be fooled."

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    Default Re: Most in US say they want stricter gun laws

    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Pless View Post
    what do you suggest specifically?
    I don't have to suggest anything, initiatives have already been previously detailed. Read Lyndon Johnson's ""Great Society" for proposals to eliminate poverty and racial injustice. Of course Richard Nixon wasn't fully on board, but he wasn't completely opposed. Did the "Great Society" completely fail? How about revisiting some of it's programs?

    Unfortunately, nasty people of all stripes have been getting nastier since Johnson's era and society has become much nastier in general. Me, I do what I can to make things better locally, while making sure that I can survive with reasonable comfort if we become Brazil.

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    Default Re: Most in US say they want stricter gun laws

    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Wilson View Post
    Um - source? First, African-Americans are only 12.4% of the population, rising to 14.2% if you include people of more than one race (census data here). And 62% is notably higher than any source I could find. It's still a much higher rate than the general population.
    Link for 62% of population:

    https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-...dc-2022-05-10/

  8. #43
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    Default Re: Most in US say they want stricter gun laws

    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Wright View Post
    OK, definitely 62% of murder victims. Firearms homicides 2020, 19,350 total, African-American victims 11,904, 61.5%. That reflects a big increase between '19 and '20. I think the data I saw was older. Damn depressing.

    But I would take issue with 'nasty people of all stripes have been getting nastier since Johnson's era and society has become much nastier in general' Despite recent unpleasantness around covid, the crime data don't show that.



    Last edited by Keith Wilson; 08-24-2022 at 06:49 PM.
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    Default Re: Most in US say they want stricter gun laws

    The state of New South Wales has a murder rate per 100,000 of 0.9

    Interesting data for the data nuts on page 6 (per 100,000). https://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/Public...2019-BB144.pdf
    Australia had a mass shooting in 1996 at Port Arthur, after which gun laws were tightened. Through 1997 thousands of guns were handed in.

    Considering guns handed in were legally owned guns, owned by law abiding citizens who wanted to to do the right thing, and expecting that substantial numbers of existing illegal guns would have circulated for say another 3 to 5 years, and then a further lag for up to 10 or 15 years while the remaining few trickled out of the system.
    Looking at not just murder rate, but the nmber of crimes using firearms.
    Also, the assault rate increased for a while and then decreased, but this isn't really reflected in murders. (Obviously if you do get into a violent altercation and there is a gun - it is more liklely to end in a murder. Take the gun out of the equation and all parties are more likely to walk away).

    There's a clear waterline around the introduction of restrictuve gun laws.
    Last edited by gypsie; 08-24-2022 at 07:42 PM.
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  10. #45
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    Default Re: Most in US say they want stricter gun laws

    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Wilson View Post


    But I would take issue with 'nasty people of all stripes have been getting nastier since Johnson's era and society has become much nastier in general' Despite recent unpleasantness around covid, the crime data don't show that.

    Crime data is not significant to the issue of nasty people that I mentioned. Crime data identifies a relatively small segment of "nasty people.". Look to state legislatures, look to the national Congress, look to the media assholes, and look to a significant portion of the general population - all nasty people who oppose and sabotage implantation of social programs which could at least make a dent in gun violence and violence in general

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    Default Re: Most in US say they want stricter gun laws

    Look to domestic violence, far too many women are murdered by their partners, and sometimes the children too. Guns are seldom involved. Domestic violence murders should result in swift and dispassionate elimination of the offender.

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    Default Re: Most in US say they want stricter gun laws

    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Pless View Post
    how to fix it, specifically?
    Stop making violence and criminal activity heroic.

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    Default Re: Most in US say they want stricter gun laws

    Quote Originally Posted by gypsie View Post
    The state of New South Wales has a murder rate per 100,000 of 0.9

    Interesting data for the data nuts on page 6 (per 100,000). https://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/Public...2019-BB144.pdf
    Australia had a mass shooting in 1996 at Port Arthur, after which gun laws were tightened. Through 1997 thousands of guns were handed in.

    Considering guns handed in were legally owned guns, owned by law abiding citizens who wanted to to do the right thing, and expecting that substantial numbers of existing illegal guns would have circulated for say another 3 to 5 years, and then a further lag for up to 10 or 15 years while the remaining few trickled out of the system.
    Looking at not just murder rate, but the nmber of crimes using firearms.
    Also, the assault rate increased for a while and then decreased, but this isn't really reflected in murders. (Obviously if you do get into a violent altercation and there is a gun - it is more liklely to end in a murder. Take the gun out of the equation and all parties are more likely to walk away).

    There's a clear waterline around the introduction of restrictuve gun laws.
    Murder rates in the US have declined since the high water mark of the late 80’s even though gun ownership has gone through the roof. Correlation, causation and all that ya know.



    Edit: I see post 43 shows that

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    Default Re: Most in US say they want stricter gun laws

    The simple fact is that there aren't enough Americans who care enough to do anything at all about the country's horrific gun problem. America is unshockable.
    Rick

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    Default Re: Most in US say they want stricter gun laws

    Quote Originally Posted by Decourcy View Post
    Murder rates in the US have declined since the high water mark of the late 80’s even though gun ownership has gone through the roof. Correlation, causation and all that ya know.



    Edit: I see post 43 shows that
    I concede that - though I'm not sure why you've said it and quoted me at the same time.

    #43 shows a graph that looks pretty steady over the last decade, and currently the murder rate is over 6 people per 100,000 (as opposed to 0.9 in Aus). So what exactly is your point?
    Are you saying there should be a direct link between the number of guns and the number of murders? x guns = y murders?

    My point is that more regulated access to guns reduces the murder rate.
    1 million responsible owners of guns could mean zero murder rate. Equally 1 million guns in the hands of 1 million nut cases and criminals, could lead to 1 million murders. Same number of guns but a very different result.

    Are you saying you disagree?
    Or that 6 per 100k is a sacrifice you are willing to make in order to own guns?
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  16. #51
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    Default Re: Most in US say they want stricter gun laws

    Quote Originally Posted by gypsie View Post
    I concede that - though I'm not sure why you've said it and quoted me at the same time.

    #43 shows a graph that looks pretty steady over the last decade, and currently the murder rate is over 6 people per 100,000 (as opposed to 0.9 in Aus). So what exactly is your point?
    Are you saying there should be a direct link between the number of guns and the number of murders? x guns = y murders?

    My point is that more regulated access to guns reduces the murder rate.
    1 million responsible owners of guns could mean zero murder rate. Equally 1 million guns in the hands of 1 million nut cases and criminals, could lead to 1 million murders. Same number of guns but a very different result.

    Are you saying you disagree?
    Or that 6 per 100k is a sacrifice you are willing to make in order to own guns?
    My point is that your assumption that a reduced murder rate in your country is directly related to your firearms control is incorrect. Violence has decreased in every western country since it peaked in the 70’s through the 90’s depending on country.

    If your idea that access to guns is the driver of rate, the extreme increase in ownership levels and numbers in the US since the 1980’s should have resulted in an increase in the murder rate, not a decrease. Yes the rate in the US is far to high. But we are discussing change of rate not absolute numbers, since the US has always had a high rate of violence compared to most western countries.

    So ya, I disagree.

    Lets look at those numbers presented earlier shall we? 62% of gun homicide victims are black. Almost exclusively young black men. Shot by other young black men. Do you think those are “legal” guns? Do you think they would hand them in? What do you propose to reduce that rate of homicide? Certainly you can’t think gun legislation will do anything?
    Last edited by Decourcy; 08-25-2022 at 12:32 AM.

  17. #52
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    Default Re: Most in US say they want stricter gun laws

    Here in Canada a man was just released from prison. 25 years old and smuggled 250 handguns in from the US to sell on the streets. 5 year sentence and out on day parole after one year. Still has the 5 rental properties he owns (hmmm…how do you think he got the money for those).
    This is why those of us who are licensed here get angry at the government. We get more controls, the criminal gets soft handling. Oh, street value was 1.6 million.

    Enforce the laws that already exist for a start maybe.

  18. #53
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    Default Re: Most in US say they want stricter gun laws

    Quote Originally Posted by Decourcy View Post
    My point is that your assumption that a reduced murder rate in your country is directly related to your firearms control is incorrect. Violence has decreased in every western country since it peaked in the 70’s through the 90’s depending on country.

    If your idea that access to guns is the driver of rate, the extreme increase in ownership levels and numbers in the US since the 1980’s should have resulted in an increase in the murder rate, not a decrease. Yes the rate in the US is far to high. But we are discussing change of rate not absolute numbers, since the US has always had a high rate of violence compared to most western countries.

    So ya, I disagree.

    Lets look at those numbers presented earlier shall we? 62% of gun homicide victims are black. Almost exclusively young black men. Shot by other young black men. Do you think those are “legal” guns? Do you think they would hand them in? What do you propose to reduce that rate of homicide? Certainly you can’t think gun legislation will do anything?
    Hard data hey, must be a pain.

    Go back and have a look at the link i provided and the page i recommended.
    Look at the second column.
    The rate of assaults per 100k is almost precisely the same as 1997 (2019 figures). The rate of assaults that resulted in a deaths has dropped since the regulations kicked in.

    A quick and dirty spreadsheet, working out the ratio of assaults to murders; in the early 90's it was a murder for every 300 to 400 assaults. In 1997 the curve changes, the number of assaults per murder starts to climb. Within 10 years it takes about 1000 assaults per murder at which point the number flattens out and hovers around the 900 to 1000 mark (1144 in 2017).

    Same number of violent assaults. Fewer murders. Numbers change precisely at the point when gun regulations tighten up....

    Correlation, causation and all that ya know. Inconvenient......
    Last edited by gypsie; 08-25-2022 at 01:20 AM.
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    Default Re: Most in US say they want stricter gun laws

    I would suggest that the gun ownership rate has risen in response to a couple of factors: The presumed/assumed tightening of gun laws that people think are inevitable after a mass shooting. Gun purchases typically spike after mass shootings. Id guess those purchases are by basic law abiding citizens less inclined to shoot up their neighborhoods or rob people.

    The second could well be that people are simply worried that in an increasingly violent country full of guns, owning a gun might provide some level of protection. After all, who wants to be the only one on the block without a gun if and when the shooting starts? And frankly seeing the nut jobs in MAGA hats and kevlar vests and the increasingly violent rhetoric from those mouth breathers its not hard to imagine that there might well be some shooting. Dont put it past TFG to summon the mob when they come to slap the cuffs and leg irons on him.

    Gun crimes as described; young urban youth shooting and killing each other, is probably not done with legally purchased and permitted firearms ....so trying to draw any correlation between gun purchases and legal ownership with a rise or dip in the crime rate is a fools errand at best. Thats not to say that better gun laws should not be vigorously pursued. Preventing another mass shooting or two can only be a good thing.

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    Default Re: Most in US say they want stricter gun laws

    Quote Originally Posted by willin woodworks View Post
    so trying to draw any correlation between gun purchases and legal ownership with a rise or dip in the perceived crime rate is a fools errand at best.
    ftfy
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    Default Re: Most in US say they want stricter gun laws

    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Pless View Post
    how to fix it, specifically?

    Well at the rate they are killing each other the “fix” might be to stand back and wait.
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    Default Re: Most in US say they want stricter gun laws

    Violence has decreased in every western country since it peaked in the 70’s through the 90’s depending on country.
    The most plausible explanation for this I've heard is blood lead levels in utero and during brain development in childhood. Leaded gasoline started being phased out in 1975, and blood lead levels in children have dropped by a factor of more than ten. (Data here; it's interesting.) Correlation and causation, of course, but lead sure doesn't do kids' brains any good, and levels were higher in dense poor urban areas.
    Last edited by Keith Wilson; 08-25-2022 at 07:56 AM.
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    Default Re: Most in US say they want stricter gun laws

    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Wilson View Post
    The most plausible explanation for this I've heard is blood lead levels in utero and during brain development in childhood. Loaded gasoline started being phased out in 1975, and blood lead levels in children have dropped by a factor of more than ten. (Data here; it's interesting.) Correlation and causation, of course, but lead sure doesn't do kids' brains any good, and levels were higher in dense poor urban areas.
    Give this man a cigar

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    Default Re: Most in US say they want stricter gun laws

    Quote Originally Posted by willin woodworks View Post
    I would suggest that the gun ownership rate has risen in response to a couple of factors: The presumed/assumed tightening of gun laws that people think are inevitable after a mass shooting. Gun purchases typically spike after mass shootings. Id guess those purchases are by basic law abiding citizens less inclined to shoot up their neighborhoods or rob people.

    The second could well be that people are simply worried that in an increasingly violent country full of guns, owning a gun might provide some level of protection. After all, who wants to be the only one on the block without a gun if and when the shooting starts? And frankly seeing the nut jobs in MAGA hats and kevlar vests and the increasingly violent rhetoric from those mouth breathers its not hard to imagine that there might well be some shooting. Dont put it past TFG to summon the mob when they come to slap the cuffs and leg irons on him.

    Gun crimes as described; young urban youth shooting and killing each other, is probably not done with legally purchased and permitted firearms ....so trying to draw any correlation between gun purchases and legal ownership with a rise or dip in the crime rate is a fools errand at best. Thats not to say that better gun laws should not be vigorously pursued. Preventing another mass shooting or two can only be a good thing.
    And interestingly blacks are the new emerging market for gun buyers https://www.nbcnews.com/news/nbcblk/...ship-rcna32150

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    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Wilson View Post
    Um - source? First, African-Americans are only 12.4% of the population, rising to 14.2% if you include people of more than one race (census data here). And 62% is notably higher than any source I could find. It's still a much higher rate than the general population.
    Can't speak to that directly, But I can say that 88% of the black homicides had a black perp.

    https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s...ta-table-6.xls

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    Default Re: Most in US say they want stricter gun laws

    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Wilson View Post
    The most plausible explanation for this I've heard is blood lead levels in utero and during brain development in childhood. Leaded gasoline started being phased out in 1975, and blood lead levels in children have dropped by a factor of more than ten. (Data here; it's interesting.) Correlation and causation, of course, but lead sure doesn't do kids' brains any good, and levels were higher in dense poor urban areas.
    Another possibility (though I believe this has recently been disputed) is the legalization and ready access to abortion. Unwanted pregnancies often grow up in lower socioeconomic homes/communities and with less omnipresent adult mentors/role models. It has been suggested that these are the population most demographically associated with violence of all kinds. Crime stated to drop about 15-20 years after US abortions became more commonplace.

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    Default Re: Most in US say they want stricter gun laws

    Quote Originally Posted by Decourcy View Post
    Well….black people make up 16% of the population and account for 62% of the homicide victims (mostly of young black men by other young black men)
    Burying heads in the sand as to what is going on (black urban gang culture) sure hasn’t worked so far. But let’s just keep glorifying it in pop culture and see what happens.
    Measuring the percentage of victims accounted for by any particular group smacks of blaming the victim. It might be more instructive to look at the characteristics of the perpetrators, with an eye to intervention.

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    Quote Originally Posted by skuthorp View Post
    Look to domestic violence, far too many women are murdered by their partners, and sometimes the children too. Guns are seldom involved. Domestic violence murders should result in swift and dispassionate elimination of the offender.

    In the US almost half of all mass shootings are the end stage of domestic abuse. Interventions there would be expected to reduce that figure, and have enormous collateral benefits.

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    Quote Originally Posted by David W Pratt View Post
    Measuring the percentage of victims accounted for by any particular group smacks of blaming the victim. It might be more instructive to look at the characteristics of the perpetrators, with an eye to intervention.
    True but as I noted earlier 88% of the violence is perpetrated by a black person onto a black person. That said, I'll bet the majority of this is gang violence in the hood. Without addressing conditions if the poorer densely populated urban areas I don't see this statistic changing any time soon.

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    Default Re: Most in US say they want stricter gun laws

    Quote Originally Posted by gypsie View Post
    Hard data hey, must be a pain.

    Go back and have a look at the link i provided and the page i recommended.
    Look at the second column.
    The rate of assaults per 100k is almost precisely the same as 1997 (2019 figures). The rate of assaults that resulted in a deaths has dropped since the regulations kicked in.

    A quick and dirty spreadsheet, working out the ratio of assaults to murders; in the early 90's it was a murder for every 300 to 400 assaults. In 1997 the curve changes, the number of assaults per murder starts to climb. Within 10 years it takes about 1000 assaults per murder at which point the number flattens out and hovers around the 900 to 1000 mark (1144 in 2017).

    Same number of violent assaults. Fewer murders. Numbers change precisely at the point when gun regulations tighten up....

    Correlation, causation and all that ya know. Inconvenient......
    Well, yeah - places with more guns means more gun violence : https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/hicrc/f...uns-and-death/

    Yannow, it is almost like having guns around is a problem.
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    Default Re: Most in US say they want stricter gun laws

    Quote Originally Posted by Boatbum View Post
    You are correct. What makes it a strong point is the Illinois has the 8th most restrictive gun laws and Chicago has made their gun restrictions even more strict. What has it gotten them exactly? Chicago ranks as the 10th most homicides per capita.
    Fireworks are illegal in NJ. PA. border is a few minutes from my home. Easy to buy them there and shoot them here.
    "Banning books and not guns seems backwards. Can't think of anyone ever shot by a book

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    Quote Originally Posted by John Smith View Post
    Fireworks are illegal in NJ. PA. border is a few minutes from my home. Easy to buy them there and shoot them here.
    But are they used more there than in PA? That is the question

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    Default Re: Most in US say they want stricter gun laws

    Quote Originally Posted by David W Pratt View Post
    In the US almost half of all mass shootings are the end stage of domestic abuse. Interventions there would be expected to reduce that figure, and have enormous collateral benefits.
    This surprised me, but I looked it up (source for the quoted bit here), and it's well over half. Of course 'mass shootings' are a fairly small part of the total number but still . . . A Modest Proposal - at the first hint of domestic violence, immediately confiscate all the guns of the abuser, and preferably make sure he can never legally own one again.

    Actually, if I were appointed god-emperor, I'd make sure only those with two X chromosomes could ever touch a firearm. Immediate death by magic to anyone with testicles who ever picks up a gun. The murder rate (at least by firearms) would immediately drop to a fraction of what it is now. Don't hold your breath.

    More than two-thirds of mass shootings are domestic violence incidents or are perpetrated by shooters with a history of domestic violence, according to one of the first peer-reviewed research papers exploring the links between domestic violence (DV) and mass shootings. The paper also finds that DV-related mass shootings are associated with higher fatality rates than mass shootings unrelated to DV.

    In the paper published in Injury Epidemiology, Lisa Geller, MPH, lead author of the paper and state affairs manager of the Educational Fund to Stop Gun Violence (EFSGV), analyzed data from the Gun Violence Archive between 2014 and 2019 to reach two major conclusions. First, that in more than two-thirds (68.2%) of mass shootings analyzed, the perpetrator either killed family or intimate partners or the shooter had a history of domestic violence; and second, that DV-related mass shootings were associated with a greater fatality rate. On average, only one in six people survive a DV-related mass shooting compared to one in three people for non-DV mass shootings.

    Geller and co-authors defined a ‘mass shooting’ as an incident with four or more fatalities by gunfire, not including the perpetrator.

    “Gun violence has many forms, but it is clear that a history of interpersonal violence should be a deciding factor in whether or not an individual should continue to have access to a gun,” said Lisa Geller, EFSGV’s state affairs manager and lead author of the study. “Our study found a clear connection between domestic violence and mass shootings, and we found that mass shootings connected to domestic violence incidents or perpetrated by a shooter with a history of domestic violence have higher fatality rates. While there are several reasons this could be, it’s possible the intent behind the perpetrator of a DV-related mass shooting may be different than a shooter who seemingly targets victims indiscriminately in public places.”

    The paper’s conclusions have critical ramifications for gun violence prevention policy, clearly demonstrating the importance of disarming domestic abusers. The paper adds to earlier scholarship on the broader links between DV and gun violence which show that a woman is 400% more likely to be killed by an abuser if there is a gun in the home, and that half of all intimate partner homicides are perpetrated using a gun.

    Geller and co-authors Marisa Booty, MHS and Cassandra K. Crifasi, PhD, MPH cross-referenced the data from the Gun Violence Archive with news articles for 110 mass shootings between 2014 and 2019 to determine the perpetrator’s history of domestic violence. Geller and co-authors categorized the shootings as either:

    1. DV-related — at least one victim of a mass shooting was a dating partner or family member of the perpetrator;
    2. History of DV — the perpetrator had a history of DV, but the mass shooting was not directed toward partners or family members; or
    3. Non-DV-related — the victims were not partners or family members, and the perpetrator did not have any mentions of a history of DV.

    The analysis concludes that:

    1. 59.1% (65 of the 110 total shootings) were DV-related;
    2. 9.1% (10 of the 110 total mass shootings) were perpetrated by an individual with a history of DV;
    3. 68.2% (75 of the 110 total shootings) were either DV or history of DV-related and;
    4. 31.8% (35 of the 110 mass shootings) were non-DV-related.
    Last edited by Keith Wilson; 08-25-2022 at 12:07 PM.
    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations,
    for nature cannot be fooled."

    Richard Feynman

  34. #69
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
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    Default Re: Most in US say they want stricter gun laws

    Quote Originally Posted by Boatbum View Post
    But are they used more there than in PA? That is the question
    The point you so clearly miss is that they shouldn't be used at all in New Jersey.
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
    -William A. Ward



  35. #70
    Join Date
    Apr 2019
    Location
    Massachusetts
    Posts
    2,212

    Default Re: Most in US say they want stricter gun laws

    Quote Originally Posted by Canoez View Post
    The point you so clearly miss is that they shouldn't be used at all in New Jersey.
    And the point you missed was that if Chicago's murder rate is high and the guns come (illegally) from somewhere else (and about 50% do), shouldn't the place of origin have even higher murder rates since the weapons are not illegal there?

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