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Thread: Metal production needed to build one generation od renewable energy devices

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    Default Metal production needed to build one generation od renewable energy devices

    to replace fossil fuels.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBVmnKuBocc

    in a nut shell it’s not possible.

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    Default Re: Metal production needed to build one generation od renewable energy devices

    What is the metal production needed to build one generation of fossil fuel devices?

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    Default Re: Metal production needed to build one generation od renewable energy devices

    Like for like is unlikely, to coin a phrase. It will not be as before. Unlimited growth has actually stopped though you won't find a government willing to admit it or an economist willing to take the risk either. We…yes us… will have to find another way, a lesser way. The revolution has come driven by climate change at least partly of our own species making and we have long exceeded the carrying capacity of the planet already. The consequences are upon us.

    I hate the word, but the daughter of close friends is 'fully woke' to all aspects and finds discrimination, racism, polluting behaviour etc. in everything and declaims upon it and it's consequences for the next generation at length. But when I rhen asked why she was having a child……. I was very, very unpopular and she became quite agitated about our decisions not to long before she was born. I was tempted to hold her nose to the grindstone of logic but I did not.

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    Default Re: Metal production needed to build one generation od renewable energy devices

    Quote Originally Posted by George. View Post
    What is the metal production needed to build one generation of fossil fuel devices?
    it’s within existing rates of production and available resources, until the wells run dry of course. The professor acknowledges that the message is unpalatable to policy makers.
    Last edited by LeeG; 08-22-2022 at 10:14 AM.

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    Default Re: Metal production needed to build one generation od renewable energy devices

    Quote Originally Posted by George. View Post
    What is the metal production needed to build one generation of fossil fuel devices?
    The definition is as stated, but in his analysis it would take 7000 years (at 2019 rate of production) to produce enough Vanadium for use to go off fossil fuels. The world currently has 46,000 renewable energy stations and we would need 586,000 to go with fully renewable energy. He states pretty clearly that there are not currently enough minerals nor are they being mined and refined at a sufficient rate. He states that we would need 65 terawatts of battery capacity based on anticipated demands.

    All the numbers are pretty staggering

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    Default Re: Metal production needed to build one generation od renewable energy devices

    Quote Originally Posted by Boatbum View Post
    ... He states that we would need 65 terawatts of battery capacity based on anticipated demands.

    All the numbers are pretty staggering
    Anticipated demands will decrease sharply with a significantly reduced human population. By then the numbers will be quite manageable.

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    Default Re: Metal production needed to build one generation od renewable energy devices

    Quote Originally Posted by TerryLL View Post
    Anticipated demands will decrease sharply with a significantly reduced human population. By then the numbers will be quite manageable.
    What??? World population rate is expected to grow until at least 2100

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    Default Re: Metal production needed to build one generation od renewable energy devices

    I looked up the report summarised in the talk, you can download it here https://www.gtk.fi/en/time-to-wake-up/downloads/.

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    Default Re: Metal production needed to build one generation od renewable energy devices

    Quote Originally Posted by LeeG View Post
    to replace fossil fuels.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBVmnKuBocc

    in a nut shell it’s not possible.
    you actually watched that video lee?
    Simpler is better, except when complicated looks really cool.

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    Default Re: Metal production needed to build one generation od renewable energy devices

    Quote Originally Posted by Boatbum View Post
    What??? World population rate is expected to grow until at least 2100
    Expectations based on what? The current rate of population increase? At best, that is an unrealistic assumption.

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    Default Re: Metal production needed to build one generation od renewable energy devices

    If I read this correctly,

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewa...rgy_in_Germany

    we hit 50 % of electricity production through renewables in Germany in 2020. Renewable energie share of overall energie consumption in Germany is around 19 % https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewa...European_Union Still a long way to go but also already some mileage done. Sweden is at 60 % renewable ...

    A lot of fossil fuel is still used for heating in Germany - insulation helps to reduce that amount while converting to heat pumps which need electricity or converting to wood furnaces can take longer.

    When you build a new house with very good insulation, a storage tank for solar heated warm water big enough to heat you through the winter (or most of it) is a possibility, albeit not very cheap yet. When Googling "German Green Energie", you find a lot of articles in English why going green is not possible. I guess there is money in writing such articles - but what is the alternative?

    Having say 80% of primary energy consumption "green" would already be a huge step. There may be a case for some combustion engines remaining on hydrocarbons (the stuff is well storable ...), some hydrocarbons (Oil or Gas) will be needed in the chemical industry, ... Going 100% may not be feasible near term. But leaning back and saying "It is not possible because ..." and just continuing as done in the past is not going to secure the future. We would still have people with flags marching in front of motorcars if we followed the logic of "It is not possible because ...". We might not even have motorcars if Bertha Benz hadn't taken the car her husband had built on the first longer road trip. Of course that was completely impossible, the technology wasn't proven - and a woman doing something like that in those days - unthinkable. It did happen though.

    It is not easy - but that is a different topic. And just extrapolating the present to the future may show that a few things still need to be invented or changed to make it possible. But to say "It is not possible ..." - is not a solution.
    Last edited by Henning 4148; 08-22-2022 at 03:54 PM.

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    Default Re: Metal production needed to build one generation od renewable energy devices

    Malthus is chuckling.

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    Default Re: Metal production needed to build one generation od renewable energy devices

    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Pless View Post
    you actually watched that video lee?
    I think I did. Sitting in a lounge chair looking at the clouds right now. I should have got one of these a long time ago.




    oh I skimmed it, 20min or so eating Ben and Jerrys in the dark.
    Last edited by LeeG; 08-22-2022 at 08:49 PM.

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    Default Re: Metal production needed to build one generation od renewable energy devices

    It is not easy - but that is a different topic. And just extrapolating the present to the future may show that a few things still need to be invented or changed to make it possible. But to say "It is not possible ..." - is not a solution.
    Appreciate your response. I took his talk to be an exercize in lookiing at the challenge of reducing GHG through “technology” without a sense of the scale and physical limits involved. So much more is possible.
    Last edited by LeeG; 08-22-2022 at 08:49 PM.

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    Default Re: Metal production needed to build one generation od renewable energy devices

    Quote Originally Posted by jdmcintyre View Post
    I looked up the report summarised in the talk, you can download it here https://www.gtk.fi/en/time-to-wake-up/downloads/.
    thx

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    Default Re: Metal production needed to build one generation od renewable energy devices

    way too long to watch. I do not have the time to sit down and watch a video for an hour and a half. Seem to me though that a lot of recycled metals from many sources can be used to build the next generation of Green Energy devices?

    Efficiency is also key. If our homes and businesses can revamp to use less energy, then you need to produce and store less.
    "If you think you are too small to make a difference, try sleeping with a mosquito"

    -Dalai Lama

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    Default Re: Metal production needed to build one generation od renewable energy devices

    Did the Bronze Age end because they ran out of tin? A very rare earth, tin, had to be brought by caravan all the way from Afghanistan.

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    Default Re: Metal production needed to build one generation od renewable energy devices

    Quote Originally Posted by TerryLL View Post
    Expectations based on what? The current rate of population increase? At best, that is an unrealistic assumption.
    No Based on World Health Organization by taking the birth rate trends (up or down and by how much) of all countries and calculating the point where fewer births are occurring than deaths. If they used the current rates, then there would never be a point where the population shrinks as current rates are still increasing. Maybe you should do a little research yourself.

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    Default Re: Metal production needed to build one generation od renewable energy devices

    The first and most important “R” of the three R’s seems to always be ignored and forgotten in our rush to try to solve a technological problem with more technology.

    But we as a species demand our comforts, no matter the end costs.

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    Default Re: Metal production needed to build one generation od renewable energy devices

    Quote Originally Posted by George. View Post
    Did the Bronze Age end because they ran out of tin? A very rare earth, tin, had to be brought by caravan all the way from Afghanistan.
    Actually there were mines in Brittan, France and the German-Czech boarder.

    That said, should we not be concerned about about our needed metals because we always managed before? Or might it make more sense to explore increasing production of the needed elements BEFORE we actually try to increase the production of the manufactured renewable energy sources. Also might make sense to develop alternatives to materials that are not readily available.

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    Default Re: Metal production needed to build one generation od renewable energy devices

    Quote Originally Posted by Boatbum View Post
    Actually there were mines in Brittan, France and the German-Czech boarder.

    That said, should we not be concerned about about our needed metals because we always managed before? Or might it make more sense to explore increasing production of the needed elements BEFORE we actually try to increase the production of the manufactured renewable energy sources. Also might make sense to develop alternatives to materials that are not readily available.
    are you suggesting a planned economy? just exactly what kind of conservative are you???
    Simpler is better, except when complicated looks really cool.

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    Default Re: Metal production needed to build one generation od renewable energy devices

    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Pless View Post
    are you suggesting a planned economy? just exactly what kind of conservative are you???
    In addition to being a "compassionate conservative" I am prone to reason at times.

    I always hated that term - Compassionate conservative

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    Default Re: Metal production needed to build one generation od renewable energy devices

    Quote Originally Posted by Boatbum View Post
    I always hated that term - Compassionate conservative
    because there's no such thing?
    Simpler is better, except when complicated looks really cool.

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    Default Re: Metal production needed to build one generation od renewable energy devices

    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Pless View Post
    because there's no such thing?

    About as many as there are liberal liberals.

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    Default Re: Metal production needed to build one generation od renewable energy devices

    Quote Originally Posted by Boatbum View Post
    Actually there were mines in Brittan, France and the German-Czech boarder.

    That said, should we not be concerned about about our needed metals because we always managed before? Or might it make more sense to explore increasing production of the needed elements BEFORE we actually try to increase the production of the manufactured renewable energy sources. Also might make sense to develop alternatives to materials that are not readily available.
    It keeps coming back to a distorted view of normal. Homo Saps is in the middle of a huge carbon energy input pulse as our normal and as negative feedbacks become obvious and supply/demand imbalances indicate a finite supply hitting limits people scramble around looking for the same amount of energy “but green” . It’s like we’re living off of an extra 2000 calories a day of beer and the solution is an extra 2000 calories of ice cream instead.

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    Default Re: Metal production needed to build one generation od renewable energy devices

    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Pless View Post
    because there's no such thing?
    It sure was a clever marketing jingle.

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    Default Re: Metal production needed to build one generation od renewable energy devices

    Quote Originally Posted by LeeG View Post
    It keeps coming back to a distorted view of normal. Homo Saps is in the middle of a huge carbon energy input pulse as our normal and as negative feedbacks become obvious and supply/demand imbalances indicate a finite supply hitting limits people scramble around looking for the same amount of energy “but green” . It’s like we’re living off of an extra 2000 calories a day of beer and the solution is an extra 2000 calories of ice cream instead.

    This

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    Default Re: Metal production needed to build one generation od renewable energy devices

    Quote Originally Posted by TerryLL View Post
    Anticipated demands will decrease sharply with a significantly reduced human population. By then the numbers will be quite manageable.
    I figure things will have settled some by 2250.

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    Default Re: Metal production needed to build one generation od renewable energy devices

    Quote Originally Posted by Decourcy View Post
    This
    So we’ll try beer and ice cream as a transition.

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    Default Re: Metal production needed to build one generation od renewable energy devices

    Quote Originally Posted by LeeG View Post
    So we’ll try beer and ice cream as a transition.
    Seems reasonable. Although has anyone actually tried beer flavoured ice cream I wonder? Could be a win/win

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    Default Re: Metal production needed to build one generation od renewable energy devices

    Quote Originally Posted by George. View Post
    Did the Bronze Age end because they ran out of tin? A very rare earth, tin, had to be brought by caravan all the way from Afghanistan.
    And don’t forget The Stone Age, we still have plenty of stones!

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    Default Re: Metal production needed to build one generation od renewable energy devices

    Quote Originally Posted by Boatbum View Post
    Actually there were mines in Brittan, France and the German-Czech boarder.
    But the Bronze Age civilizations didn't have access to that.


    That said, should we not be concerned about about our needed metals because we always managed before? Or might it make more sense to explore increasing production of the needed elements BEFORE we actually try to increase the production of the manufactured renewable energy sources. Also might make sense to develop alternatives to materials that are not readily available.
    My point is that if current technology requires scarce metals, we need to work on new technology that doesn't. The Bronze Age actually ended because people learned to make stuff out of iron, which is not scarce at all.

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    Default Re: Metal production needed to build one generation od renewable energy devices

    Quote Originally Posted by George. View Post

    My point is that if current technology requires scarce metals, we need to work on new technology that doesn't.
    I believe I said something similar in my post. Did you actually read it. So we need alternatives. How long will we need for an alternative to Vanadium? Any thoughts?

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    Default Re: Metal production needed to build one generation od renewable energy devices

    This is a good and needed report. I don't read it as saying that our predicament is hopeless only that the transition will be difficult, take time, and demand that we make compromises.

    The following three paragraphs are from the summary.


    "This report addresses the challenges around the ambitious task of phasing out fossil fuels (oil, gas, & coal) that are currently used in vehicle Internal Combustion Engine technology (ICE) and for electrical power generation. A novel bottom-up approach (as opposed to the typical top-down approach) was used to make the calculations presented here. Previous studies have also tended to focus on estimated costs of production and CO2 footprint metrics, whereas the present report is based on the physical material requirements. All data, figures and diagrams have been created or reproduced from publicly available sources and are cited appropriately.


    Current expectations are that global industrial businesses will replace a complex industrial energy ecosystem that took more than a century to build. The current system was built with the support of the highest calorifically dense source of energy the world has ever known (oil), in cheap abundant quantities, with easily available credit, and seemingly unlimited mineral resources. The replacement needs to be done at a time when there is comparatively very expensive energy, a fragile finance system saturated in debt, not enough minerals, and an unprecedented world population, embedded in a deteriorating natural environment. Most challenging of all, this has to be done within a few decades. It is the author’s opinion, based on the new calculations presented here, that this will likely not go fully to as planned.


    In conclusion, this report suggests that replacing the existing fossil fuel powered system (oil, gas, and coal), using renewable technologies, such as solar panels or wind turbines, will not be possible for the entire global human population. There is simply just not enough time, nor resources to do this by the current target set by the World’s most influential nations. What may be required, therefore, is a significant reduction of societal demand for all resources, of all kinds. This implies a very different social contract and a radically different system of governance to what is in place today. Inevitably, this leads to the conclusion that the existing renewable energy sectors and the EV technology systems are merely steppingstones to something else, rather than the final solution. It is recommended that some thought be given to this and what that something else might be."


    But we have to carry out this transition and figure out what this something else is under the burden of poor governments led by know nothing kleptocrats like Donald Rump, Putin, Johnson... and all the others.

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    Default Re: Metal production needed to build one generation od renewable energy devices

    Quote Originally Posted by jdmcintyre View Post
    This is a good and needed report. I don't read it as saying that our predicament is hopeless only that the transition will be difficult, take time, and demand that we make compromises.

    The following three paragraphs are from the summary.


    "This report addresses the challenges around the ambitious task of phasing out fossil fuels (oil, gas, & coal) that are currently used in vehicle Internal Combustion Engine technology (ICE) and for electrical power generation. A novel bottom-up approach (as opposed to the typical top-down approach) was used to make the calculations presented here. Previous studies have also tended to focus on estimated costs of production and CO2 footprint metrics, whereas the present report is based on the physical material requirements. All data, figures and diagrams have been created or reproduced from publicly available sources and are cited appropriately.


    Current expectations are that global industrial businesses will replace a complex industrial energy ecosystem that took more than a century to build. The current system was built with the support of the highest calorifically dense source of energy the world has ever known (oil), in cheap abundant quantities, with easily available credit, and seemingly unlimited mineral resources. The replacement needs to be done at a time when there is comparatively very expensive energy, a fragile finance system saturated in debt, not enough minerals, and an unprecedented world population, embedded in a deteriorating natural environment. Most challenging of all, this has to be done within a few decades. It is the author’s opinion, based on the new calculations presented here, that this will likely not go fully to as planned.


    In conclusion, this report suggests that replacing the existing fossil fuel powered system (oil, gas, and coal), using renewable technologies, such as solar panels or wind turbines, will not be possible for the entire global human population. There is simply just not enough time, nor resources to do this by the current target set by the World’s most influential nations. What may be required, therefore, is a significant reduction of societal demand for all resources, of all kinds. This implies a very different social contract and a radically different system of governance to what is in place today. Inevitably, this leads to the conclusion that the existing renewable energy sectors and the EV technology systems are merely steppingstones to something else, rather than the final solution. It is recommended that some thought be given to this and what that something else might be."


    But we have to carry out this transition and figure out what this something else is under the burden of poor governments led by know nothing kleptocrats like Donald Rump, Putin, Johnson... and all the others.
    There was some real analysis to this. Even to the point of estimating how many EV cars would be needed for local driving vs hydrogen powered vehicles for long haul work. Even looked at moving to biofuels for air travel and expanded use of modern trains

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