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Thread: Concern for The East Antarctic Ice Sheet…….

  1. #36
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    Default Re: Concern for The East Antarctic Ice Sheet…….

    I'm at 2000 feet above sea level. By the time the ocean shore gets here, well, it'll be ugly everywhere.

  2. #37
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    Default Re: Concern for The East Antarctic Ice Sheet…….

    Quote Originally Posted by Gerarddm View Post
    I used to know a hydrologist at Woods Hole. They have been scared of Greenland ice melt for quite some time.
    There's a concept in ecological and climate science: the tipping point. That's the point at which a system formerly in equilibrium (e.g. the seasonal melt/freeze cycle that sustains glaciers and ice caps) falls apart and the system lurches toward a new state. That seems to be taking place in the Antarctic, with the Arctic sea ice cover, in Greenland, in hundreds of continental glaciers (e.g. in Alaska, the Rockies, and the Alps.) Once the ice or permafrost melts, it will take centuries of severely cold temperatures to rebuild, which will likely not occur within our lifetimes.

  3. #38
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    Default Re: Concern for The East Antarctic Ice Sheet…….

    Quote Originally Posted by TerryLL View Post
    Probably so. But when it gets to that level we will be long gone.
    Apres moi le deluge?
    Last edited by P.I. Stazzer-Newt; 08-12-2022 at 02:16 AM.
    I'd much rather lay in my bunk all freakin day lookin at Youtube videos .

  4. #39
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    Default Re: Concern for The East Antarctic Ice Sheet…….

    And here we are, before the deluge….



    Some of them were dreamers
    And some of them were fools
    Who were making plans and thinking of the future
    With the energy of the innocent
    They were gathering the tools
    They would need to make their journey back to nature
    While the sand slipped through the opening
    And their hands reached for the golden ring
    With their hearts they turned to each other's hearts for refuge
    In the troubled years that came before the deluge

    Some of them knew pleasure
    And some of them knew pain
    And for some of them it was only the moment that mattered
    And on the brave and crazy wings of youth
    They went flying around in the rain
    And their feathers, once so fine, grew torn and tattered
    And in the end they traded their tired wings
    For the resignation that living brings
    And exchanged love's bright and fragile glow
    For the glitter and the rouge
    And in a moment they were swept before the deluge

    Let the music keep our spirits high
    Let the buildings keep our children dry
    Let creation reveal its secrets by and by, by and by
    When the light that's lost within us reaches the sky

    Some of them were angry
    At the way the earth was abused
    By the men who learned how to forge her beauty into power
    And they struggled to protect her from them
    Only to be confused
    By the magnitude of her fury in the final hour
    And when the sand was gone and the time arrived
    In the naked dawn only a few survived
    And in attempts to understand a thing so simple and so huge
    Believed that they were meant to live after the deluge

    Let the music keep our spirits high
    Let the buildings keep our children dry
    Let creation reveal it's secrets by and by, by and by
    When the light that's lost within us reaches the sky
    Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication. Leonardo da Vinci.

    If war is the answer........... it must be a profoundly stupid question.

    "Freighters on the nod on the surface of the bay, One of these days we're going to sail away"
    Bruce Cockburn

  5. #40
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    Default Re: Concern for The East Antarctic Ice Sheet…….

    I think we reached the tipping point around 1984-5, and I thought so in the subsequent few years.
    The tipping point means climate chaos, hence mass immigration away from threats and economic chaos as well. And we are only at the tip of the change. We do not know the cumulative effects of all the smaller changes and scientific modelling so far has been far too conservative. I suspect that man will yet again have to adapt to the changes, or not. Certainly it's speed will leave our evolution far behind.

  6. #41
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    Default Re: Concern for The East Antarctic Ice Sheet…….

    Quote Originally Posted by P.I. Stazzer-Newt View Post
    Apres moi le deluge?
    Most humans are not seven generation thinkers. An outlook of one or two generations is the best some can do. Corporations act as if doom is at the doorstep and maximum profits must be grabbed as quickly as possible.

    I can't argue against an "eat, drink, and be merry" mind-set when all the indices point to our unavoidable and rapidly approaching end.

  7. #42
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    Default Re: Concern for The East Antarctic Ice Sheet…….

    Quote Originally Posted by TerryLL View Post
    And Texans are moving to the Inland Northwest in droves.
    Texas has had the largest population increase in the nation in the last two years.

  8. #43
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    Default Re: Concern for The East Antarctic Ice Sheet…….

    Quote Originally Posted by Dan McCosh View Post
    Texas has had the largest population increase in the nation in the last two years.
    Idaho is the fastest growing state (by percent change) and northern Idaho is the fastest growing region. Texas plates are everywhere up here.

  9. #44
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    Default Re: Concern for The East Antarctic Ice Sheet…….

    Back on topic:

    A report hit the interwebs this morning that the Arctic is heating up at at a much faster rate that previously expected. The main concern is carbon and methane release from the melting permafrost. Also, massive wildfires in AK and Siberia are pumping huge amounts carbon into the Arctic atmosphere.

  10. #45
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    Default Re: Concern for The East Antarctic Ice Sheet…….

    Quote Originally Posted by TerryLL View Post
    Back on topic:

    A report hit the interwebs this morning that the Arctic is heating up at at a much faster rate that previously expected. The main concern is carbon and methane release from the melting permafrost. Also, massive wildfires in AK and Siberia are pumping huge amounts carbon into the Arctic atmosphere.
    The other problem is that even without the fires, permafrost is melting down. These areas with permafrost contain large volumes of methane which is being released as the permafrost melts. Methane is a much more potent greenhouse gas than even CO2. It is a vicious circle - more warming, more melting, more melting, more methane, more methane, more warming...

    When I worked on a project in the mid-80's they talked about the thickness of polar pack ice being many meters thick at the North Pole. Over the winter of 2019-2020, the MOSAiC expedition to the North Pole was the largest polar science expedition ever mounted with over 600 scientists rotating through every three months. When they arrived, they had difficulty finding pack ice thick enough to establish a safe ice camp and to freeze the Polarstern into the ice. The intent was to freeze the icebreaker into the pack ice and let the coriolis drift move the icebreaker across the pole over a period of one year. Anything on the pack ice had to be attached to inflatable fenders to provide flotation in the event that the pack ice broke up unexpectedly. Anyone on the ice had to wear an exposure suit for the same reason.

    The research from that expedition is likely what is leading to the report that you're reading now that data collected has been examined, reports created and peer reviewed. From what I read, the climate change in the Arctic is happening at 4x the rate that they were expecting based on previous information.
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
    -William A. Ward



  11. #46
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    Default Re: Concern for The East Antarctic Ice Sheet…….

    Interesting timeframe observation. A scientific study may take two to five years for planning, finding funding, implementation, data processing and publishing. Then one to two years for peer review and final publication. Once data is verified and released we look at five to ten years for legislative debate and policy formation and another five to ten (or longer) for implementation to begin. By the time implementation is started on a response to scientific data, the data is obsolete and the overall response may well be completely insufficient if not actually counterproductive.

  12. #47
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    Default Re: Concern for The East Antarctic Ice Sheet…….

    Quote Originally Posted by Hugh MacD View Post
    Interesting timeframe observation. A scientific study may take two to five years for planning, finding funding, implementation, data processing and publishing. Then one to two years for peer review and final publication. Once data is verified and released we look at five to ten years for legislative debate and policy formation and another five to ten (or longer) for implementation to begin. By the time implementation is started on a response to scientific data, the data is obsolete and the overall response may well be completely insufficient if not actually counterproductive.

    Might that be a clue as to why we are in this very effed up condition globally? Probable only one of many cascading reasons.

  13. #48
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    Default Re: Concern for The East Antarctic Ice Sheet…….

    Quote Originally Posted by TerryLL View Post
    Might that be a clue as to why we are in this very effed up condition globally? Probable only one of many cascading reasons.
    That and corporate lobbying from companies that need to continue to generate emissions to remain competitive - think transportation and energy companies along with large corporations and even Crypto.
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
    -William A. Ward



  14. #49
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    Default Re: Concern for The East Antarctic Ice Sheet…….

    There's an emerging genre of fiction that gazes into our future climate and the human effects: call it cli-fi.

    An outstanding writer in that vein is Kim Stanley Robinson. Read these two books and liked them.






  15. #50
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    Default Re: Concern for The East Antarctic Ice Sheet…….

    Thanks Chip, I'll be looking for those two.

  16. #51
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    Default Re: Concern for The East Antarctic Ice Sheet…….

    ^ I have these on hold at my library. I am #13 hold.
    Gerard>
    Albuquerque, NM

    Every Republican is an obstacle to progress.

  17. #52
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    Default Re: Concern for The East Antarctic Ice Sheet…….

    I just got New York 2140 from the library, and put The Ministry Of The Future on hold.

  18. #53
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    Default Re: Concern for The East Antarctic Ice Sheet…….

    Quote Originally Posted by Hugh MacD View Post
    Interesting timeframe observation. A scientific study may take two to five years for planning, finding funding, implementation, data processing and publishing. Then one to two years for peer review and final publication. Once data is verified and released we look at five to ten years for legislative debate and policy formation and another five to ten (or longer) for implementation to begin. By the time implementation is started on a response to scientific data, the data is obsolete and the overall response may well be completely insufficient if not actually counterproductive.
    We won't do much at all because we are not capable as a species of handling something this big. We will adapt and cope ….maybe…. but it will not be pretty or peaceful as everyone grabs theirs.

  19. #54
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    Default Re: Concern for The East Antarctic Ice Sheet…….

    I don't think there is much hope, humanity has chosen to ignore the warnings that have been given to us.


    So I have been waking up for forty years knowing that I am living in a dying world and wondering if there is a way to somehow walk back from that catastrophe.


    The following notes and references are from a talk I gave last year. The books are all paperbacks written for non specialists.


    1. The Limits to Growth and its pre history


    Read the pre history first: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/5...jay-forrester/


    A PDF copy of The Limits to Growth can be downloaded here: http://www.donellameadows.org/wp-con...an-version.pdf


    2. Peter Wadhams, A Farewell to Ice, A Report from the Arctic. Penguin, 2017
    Peter Wadhams home page is at: https://www.damtp.cam.ac.uk/user/pw11/


    His book contains a clear explanation of how greenhouse gases warm the earth and of the long term Earth systems climate sensitivity which has been estimated as + 4 degrees by 2100 even if the concentration of atmospheric CO2 stays at 410 ppm! The IPCC only estimates the immediate temperature change induced by increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, The Transient Climate Response and The Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity, see below. The problem with this that this short term warming causes changes like the melting of sea ice that reduces the amount of sunlight that is reflected by the earth that feedback increasing the long term equilibrium temperature of the earth.


    The sources for the Earth systems climate sensitivity are from:


    3. Reference 3 in chapter 4 of A Farewell to Ice
    4. http://www.apollo-gaia.org/SCBContri...ms-140606.html
    5. http://www.apollo-gaia.org/sensitivitycarbonbudget.html
    6. For climate sensitivity and the definition of the Radiative Damping Coefficient see, Previdi M, Liepert BG, Peteet D, Hansen J, Beerling DJ, Broccoli AJ, Frolking S, Galloway JN, Heimann M, Le Quere C, Levitus S, Ramaswamy V. 2013. Climate sensitivity in the Anthropocene. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 139 : 1121 – 1131. DOI:10.1002/qj.2165


    Peter Wadhams and David Wasdell have estimated the earth system sensitivity and write that, “They based their assessment on the effects of the known fast feedbacks like increase in water vapour with rising temperature, reduction in reflection from shrinking areas of sea-ice, and changes in cloud effects. They estimated that the global feedback system amplified the effects of CO2 on its own by some 3.1 times. “Climate Sensitivity” is defined as the change in equilibrium temperature correlated with a doubling in concentration of atmospheric CO2, so their calculations yielded a sensitivity value of around 3°C. The current ensemble of computer models on which the IPCC reports are based still uses this “fast-feedback sensitivity” to predict future change in temperature. It is immediately clear that this sensitivity value is consistent with the prediction of a 2°C rise at a CO2 concentration of 440 ppm.”


    “Another outcome of replacing the fast feedback sensitivity with the whole Earth System Sensitivity concerns the projected end-of-century temperature response to the current set of international commitments to reduction in CO2 emissions. With an expected total cumulative carbon emission of around 2000 Gt C, the IPCC SPM indicates a transient temperature response of around 4°C. The ESS corrects this to around 10°C, with the extension to full equilibrium response of more like 15 °C. An ice-free world and a sea-level rise of around 60 metres are in prospect.”


    [Note: It looks as though 4 interglacials ago Greenland was ice free implying a high earth system sensitivity, a sea level rise of several m at a time when atmospheric CO2 concentration was at a preindustrial level, with only Milanković forcing, and an intact planetary ecosystem. See Paul Voosen (2019) Mud in storied ice core hints at a thawed Greenland, Science 01 Nov 2019: Vol. 366, Issue 6465, pp. 556-557. DOI: 10.1126/science.366.6465.556]


    James E. Hansen points out that the estimates for sea level rise published by the IPCC are too low.


    Direct testimony of James E. Hansen, before the Iowa Utilities Board re: Interstate Power and Light Company, Docket No. GCU-07-1


    He wrote, “The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) calculated a sea level rise of only 21-51 cm by 2095 for “business-as-usual” scenarios A2 and A1B, but their calculation included only thermal expansion of the ocean and melting of alpine glaciers, thus omitting the most critical component of sea level change, that from ice sheets. The IPCC noted the omission of this component in its sea level projections, because it was unable to reach a consensus on the magnitude of likely ice sheet disintegration. However, much of the media failed to note this caveat in the IPCC report.”


    (James Hanson is a climate scientist who ended his career as head of NASA’s Goddard institute for space sciences where he was responsible for earth observation. His home pages is at: http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/)


    7. Eun-Soon Im, Jeremy S. Pal, Elfatih A. B. Eltahir. (2017) Deadly heat waves projected in the densely populated agricultural regions of South Asia, Science Advances, 2 August 2017.


    8. Steven C. Sherwooda and Matthew Huber. (2010) An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress, PNAS, May 25, 2010, Vol. 107, no. 2.


    Two possible paths are open to us. The first is to continue as we have and be grateful for the decade or two's peace that we have remaining to us. In other words, to try and live with grace in a dying world. The second is for humanity to hunker down, to do less with less, to begin to limit population growth, and to enact policies that protect the environment, reduce pollution, and resource use and which are consistent with the predicament that we are in. We will also need to geo-engineer the climate at a low enough energy and resource cost that we do not run up against the collapse modes explored by the limits to growth trying.


    See also MacKay, David J. C. (2009) Sustainable Energy - Without the Hot Air. UIT Cambridge Ltd. (David was professor of physics at Cambridge and wrote the book in his spare time. You can download a copy for free. It is a tragedy that he died young.)


    I am astonished that the kind of numerate analytical thinking contained in Sustainable Energy - Without the Hot Air had to be done by a single individual in his spare time!


    The Limits to Growth is one of a handful of works that addresses the dynamics of an industrial civilisation on a finite planet. It also astonishes me that so little analysis of these dynamics has been done.

    And please forgive me if I am slow to reply! I am drowning in work here! but know that I value what you all say in the bilge : )

  20. #55
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    Default Re: Concern for The East Antarctic Ice Sheet…….

    Quote Originally Posted by jdmcintyre View Post
    I don't think there is much hope, humanity has chosen to ignore the warnings that have been given to us.


    Two possible paths are open to us. The first is to continue as we have and be grateful for the decade or two's peace that we have remaining to us. In other words, to try and live with grace in a dying world. The second is for humanity to hunker down, to do less with less, to begin to limit population growth, and to enact policies that protect the environment, reduce pollution, and resource use and which are consistent with the predicament that we are in. We will also need to geo-engineer the climate at a low enough energy and resource cost that we do not run up against the collapse modes explored by the limits to growth trying.
    Thanks for that terrific post. The evidence and the appropriate path forward has been known far enough back that corrective action could have been taken that would have made a difference. Now are options are dwindling by the day, and the will to do what is necessary is still nowhere to be found.

    I listened to Wadhams and Hansen for years, but I have now lost all hope that their warnings will ever be heeded.

    Of the two paths open to us I fear the first path is our only remaining option.

  21. #56
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    Default Re: Concern for The East Antarctic Ice Sheet…….

    We installed our first solar PV power system in 2004. When we moved to our present place in 2011, we did the same. It generates more electricity than we use, with the surplus returned to the grid. We drive a 2000 Honda Insight hybrid that gets 60 mpg. I designed and built a 4-season greenhouse with solar radiant floor heat that works in our severe local climate: we pick ripe tomatoes at Christmas.

    None of this qualifies as hardship or grim deprivation. In fact, I treat it a series of really fun puzzles.

    I have no illusion that I can singlehandedly save the planet, but I do what I can.

  22. #57
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    Default Re: Concern for The East Antarctic Ice Sheet…….

    Read the article....it says 5.1 meters. Still a lot of water but not 51 meters, no idea where the 52 came from

  23. #58
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    Default Re: Concern for The East Antarctic Ice Sheet…….

    A headline if I remember correctly rregge. Should have checked…..

  24. #59
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    Default Re: Concern for The East Antarctic Ice Sheet…….

    Quote Originally Posted by TerryLL View Post
    I just got New York 2140 from the library, and put The Ministry Of The Future on hold.
    The Ministry for the Future was interesting. I can't say "reassuring" but perhaps a plausible look at some of what is coming when governments and other organizations are finally forced to take significant action.

    It opens with an all-too-believable heat wave in India that kills 20 million people and kind of starts things rolling.

    Tom
    Ponoszenie konsekwencji!

    www.tompamperin.com

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