Will the 2022 Recession officially begin after the 4th of July?

[Ted Hoppe]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/26/busin...dup/index.html

A tepid stock market, soaring inflation, and rising interest rates have left Americans less than optimistic about the state of the economy. Consumer sentiment has plunged to a record low, according to a University of Michigan survey released last week, fueled by frustration over high prices. Earlier in June, the consumer price index jumped to its highest level in 40 years. The government's primary inflation gauge saw prices surging 8.6% for the past 12 months. And now the Fed is raising interest rates at an aggressive pace as it looks to slow down economic activity. To be clear: we are not in a recession yet. But signs of an economic downturn are cropping up all over, in sectors from commodities to housing.

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My comment: Americans will feel and talk about the pinch this holiday weekend. There is no fast turn around with the Fed cutting out home ownership with high interest rates, market uncertainty and ongoing war with Ukraine. Americans are not prepared for the take back of credit or the rise in inflation. This weekend around the family picnic table and BBQ talk is about high costs of gas, food, cars and affording their homes. Once that conversation happens among the millions of families and friends over the 4th, economists will begin calling this a recession.

[LeeG]

Doesn’t it take a few quarters of decline to wave the official flag?
I wish more folks picked up on the UAE and SA leaders telling Macron that little spare production capacity is forthcoming. No amount of whining at the 4th of July bbq will change that.

[Boatbum]

Doesn’t it take a few quarters of decline to wave the official flag?
I wish more folks picked up on the UAE and SA leaders telling Macron that little spare production capacity is forthcoming. No amount of whining at the 4th of July bbq will change that.

There is no hard set of criteria though shrinking GDP for a period of time is a part of it.

In 1974, economist Julius Shiskin came up with a few rules of thumb to define a recession: The most popular was two consecutive quarters of declining GDP. A healthy economy expands over time, so two quarters in a row of contracting output suggests there are serious underlying problems, according to Shiskin. This definition of a recession became a common standard over the years.

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is generally recognized as the authority that defines the starting and ending dates of U.S. recessions. NBER has its own definition of what constitutes a recession, namely “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”

We are actually a little overdue for a recession. I would say that when the economists look back they will say that we were in a recession already - my opinion.

[Breakaway]

Sooner we bottom out the sooner we can start the next rise.

Kevin


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[Canoeyawl]

Looks like Obama's good work carried TFG through, at least until the delayed supply chain effects of Covid,
and finally an unprecedented rise of the market is facing a correction.
And I wouldn't put it past an attempt by Putin to control the economy with a little war. Soon the price of food will go the way of the price of gasoline.
Which makes me wonder what exactly sort of promise did Slim Rasputin get from the house of Saud?
And finally anyone that thinks this mess is on Biden is IQ challenged

[Boatbum]

Soon the price of food will go the way of the price of gasoline.

Trips to the grocery store have already become much more expensive.

[Too Little Time]

There is some belief that we are 4 quarters into a recession already - https://worldinformationnow.com/gugg...econd-quarter/

My economic position is better than expected. But that is typical of recessions. The poor pay the price.

[David G]

No background. No research. No thought invested prior to posting. A weird, idiosyncratic understanding of what triggers an official declaration of 'recession'.

Yup... it's a Ted post.

There are other threads about the threatening inflation that start from a place of knowledge, or fairly quickly arrive there. Pless was even inspired in one of them to make a germane, sensical, coherent, on-topic post!!

EX. http://forum.woodenboat.com/showthre...ight=inflation

[Ted Hoppe]

BEFORE I respond to what Ted writes, I use this on my balls.

Fixed.

[David G]

No substantive response to his correspondent.

Weird irrelevant graphical content.

Yup... it's a Ted post.

[Ted Hoppe]

^ We heard it before.... Blah blah blah... Ted is a fine fellow with a peabrain for noting what we can all see, thank god for you all i am so smug and smart.

Waiting for your demonstration video of other uses for your cat toothbrush.

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