The cost of Brexit

[dutchpp]

The British/Indian Dr. Swati Dhingra ( London School of Economics) published a paper today about the effects of Brexit on the average wages of British workers. Due to the increased bureaucratic obligations after Brexit, which leads to a lower productivity and a more closed economy, the wages of the average workers will be 1,8% lower at the end of this decade, that's 470 pounds or €550 a year.
What is striking are the large differences between the various economic sectors. The fisheries economic contribution to the British economy can drop by 30% while the financial sector keeps it limited to 0,3%.
I can't find the original paper yet but this is the link to the news item, in Dutch but I'm sure there will be UK reports as well.
https://www.nu.nl/economie/6207897/b...gelgeving.html

[lupussonic]

So £550 a year less wages by 2030.
Hardly much to cry about.

You do seem to enjoy your Brit bashing these days.

[Peerie Maa]

So £550 a year less wages by 2030.
Hardly much to cry about.

You do seem to enjoy your Brit bashing these days.

With inflation running in nearly double figures, that is a massive cut in buying power.
Do the math.

Farmer, from near Attleborough, loses £50,000 over shortage of workers

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-61612882

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Martin - this is just the actual cost of the bureaucracy brought in with Brexit.

It is not the economic impact of Brexit.

There is a very good, long, item on that in the Financial Times for June 20th.

Here’s one extract:

“The Office for Budget Responsibility, the official British forecaster, has seen no reason to change its prediction, first made in March 2020, that Brexit would ultimately reduce productivity and UK gross domestic product by 4 per cent compared with a world where the country remained inside the EU. It says that a little over half of that damage has yet to occur. That level of decline, worth about £100bn a year in lost output, would result in lost revenues for the Treasury of roughly £40bn a year. That is £40bn that might have been available to the beleaguered Johnson for the radical tax cuts demanded by the Tory right — the equivalent of 6p off the 20p in the pound basic rate of income tax.”

[Paul Pless]

The fisheries economic contribution to the British economy can drop by 30% while the financial sector keeps it limited to 0,3%.

weren't fisheries supposed to be one of the big winners in brexit?

[Edward Pearson]

So far inactuality, by restricting European economic migration, and that a large number of people simply stopped actively working during covid and have left the labour market, the remaining workers here are in especially high demand, and wages have gone up significantly here in the past couple of years. Very easy employment, you can walk into most business anywhere and get a job. Employers are having to pay more to get and keep staff, and these wage increases have helped significantly with the post covid worldwide inflation problem. Had we stayed in the EU British employees would be worse off with lower pay as it was. As to output exports last year to the EU were the highest they have ever been.

[Paul Pless]

Employers are having to pay more to get and keep staff, and these wage increases have helped significantly with the post covid worldwide inflation problem.

tehe

or maybe, these wage increases are helping to drive 'post covid' inflation

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

So far inactuality, by restricting European economic migration, and that a large number of people simply stopped actively working during covid and have left the labour market, the remaining workers here are in especially high demand, and wages have gone up significantly here in the past couple of years. Very easy employment, you can walk into most business anywhere and get a job. Employers are having to pay more to get and keep staff, and these wage increases have helped significantly with the post covid worldwide inflation problem. Had we stayed in the EU British employees would be worse off with lower pay as it was. As to output exports last year to the EU were the highest they have ever been.

Really, Edward?
Really?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...e_iOSApp_Other

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Brexitery is like Trumpery; it’s a religion, which frees its devotees from any connection with reality.

[Peerie Maa]

weren't fisheries supposed to be one of the big winners in brexit?

Yes, they thought that the foreign boats could be kept out of UK waters. Forgetting that when British skippers retired, they sold their British license to the French and Spanish fleet owners. Dumb as a box of bricks.

[skuthorp]

The world is in an 'interesting' place at the moment.
Tom Lairas line in his song "Werner Von Braun" comes to mind…. paraphrased

"Once it (the established economic order) goes up who cares/knows where it comes down………"

[Edward Pearson]

[/B][/I]
Really, Edward?
Really?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...e_iOSApp_Other

Yep. ONS Data. British exports to the EU in April 2022 was the highest since records began.

[dutchpp]

Brit bashing can be fun Martin but that was not the intention of the post, I think that a nearly 2% reduction of income can be a significant problem for people who live in a country with a current so called harmonized inflation rate of almost 9%. That's considered as news in my country hence my sharing of it.

But if you insist I can start with a list for a bashing campaign..

[birlinn]

Yep. ONS Data. British exports to the EU in April 2022 was the highest since records began.

Must have been all that stuff bound for Ukraine.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Yep. ONS Data. British exports to the EU in April 2022 was the highest since records began.

You have taken a single month. Strip the oil and gas (at Ukraine invasion prices!) out of it and look again.

[Peerie Maa]

Yep. ONS Data. British exports to the EU in April 2022 was the highest since records began.

Reading comprehension problems much?

UK exports of goods to the EU have fallen by £20bn compared with the last period of stable trade with Europe, according to official figures marking the first full year since Brexit.

Numbers released on Friday by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the combined impact of the pandemic and Britain’s exit from the single market caused a 12% fall in exports between January and December last year compared with 2018.


Highlighting the disproportionate impact of leaving the EU, exports to the rest of the world excluding the 27-nation bloc dropped by a much smaller £10bn, or about 6% compared with 2018 levels.

[AndyG]

Cucumbers.

In our shop, these are wrapped in cellophane and have a barcode stuck on.

Annoyingly often, the barcode falls off, and when I'm running a mainbank till and I'm scanning stuff at a ferocious 32+ rings-per-minute, I don't want to slow down. Certainly not for a measly cucumber.

So I've learned the prices (of these, and all the other items that are prone to losing their barcodes).

Back in September, the noble cuke was 42p. It was 42p for months.

A few weeks ago, it jumped to 47p.

Last week? Your bland green tube of tastelessness hit 52p.

A >20% rise in well under a year. The reasons? Well, I can see...

Fewer pickers.
Weaker pound.
Increased transport costs.
Increased storage costs.
Seasonality.

Apart from the last item, Brexit is damaging. There are, and never will be, the promised Sunlit Uplands.

Andy

[dutchpp]

Most of us are luckily not very poor but if you are; the approximately 40 pounds or €45 you miss each month can be sufficient for 6 à 7 days of food for 1 person ( Dutch prices but I'm sure the UK prices aren't very different). It can be the difference between just getting by and hunger.
These "details" are easily forgotten in discussions.

[Peerie Maa]

https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-wi...rJrqR2bv0dp1VE

Brexit has damaged Britain's competitiveness, will reduce productivity and leave the average worker poorer than they otherwise would have been, according to a new study.
The Resolution Foundation said leaving the EU has reduced how open and competitive Britain's economy is.


And it goes further to say it has also led to an increase in cost of living andthe level of business investment falling.
The report, in collaboration with the London School of Economics, said this was all as a result of a "depreciation-driven inflation spike" following Brexit.

<snip>
The full effect of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement will take years to be felt but the move towards a more closed economy, say the authors, will make the UK less competitive, which will reduce productivity and real wages, it was predicted.