Gas from russia to europe

[David G]

Attachment 111885

Yes, I feel ya. But I'm afraid I have to call False Equivalence.

And this thread illustrates it.

While my characterization was correct (you'll note that no one has effectively argued otherwise, but limited themselves to pearl-clutching about my effrontery, arrogance, and other counts of mopery & dopery in saying it out loud)... you are casting about the Pit of Ignorance on your chosen topic - tossing things at the wall - which the more knowledgeable among us keep batting back at you as 'damaged goods'. Your suggestion that the ruble's rise somehow illustrated your point, and ACB's breakdown of the actual factors in play, is the most recent example.

You insist on inhabiting RWW territory. "My opinion is just as good as anyone's... no matter how little I know about the topic!!!"

Not, "I wonder if... ". Not, "Could anyone explain why..." No, "Not my area, but I've now looked into it a bit, and here are some citations that make me suspect that...". Just naked assertions, or research from the Motivated Reasoning mode, not the Search For Truth mode. Just demands that people disprove your flingings.

[Vadim 68]

Are the various pipelines too valuable to europe for Ukraine to risk damaging. At the risk of withdrawal of european support?

Your question has already been answered. The EU needs the gas, Ukraine needs the transit fees. The reason Ukraine was against Nordstream 2 was it would deprive them of transit fees which runs into billions of dollars.

[WszystekPoTrochu]

I thought we were imposing sanctions to pressure the russian economy and devalue the ruble.

How’s that going?

Attachment 111873

That is literally successful propaganda / fiscal policy. Look at this graph:

-1x-1.jpg

They do maintain a stable price by semi artificial trades, with whatever reserves they still have. With abysmal trade volumes, balancing the few sellers is relatively easy. The whole reason behind trying to force the EU into paying in rubles is related to ever smaller capabilities of artificial currency stabilisation.

[WszystekPoTrochu]

Helpful. Thanks Andrew.

Are the various pipelines too valuable to europe for Ukraine to risk damaging. At the risk of withdrawal of european support?

Almost certainly. It's not even a question of grief - a collapsing economy will not find the will nor means to give away any kind of aid.

[WszystekPoTrochu]

The reason Ukraine was against Nordstream 2 was it would deprive them of transit fees which runs into billions of dollars.

No, it would deprive them of security. You can't feel it in Sweden, you won't read about it in Deutsche Welle - but Putin liked to switch gas off on a whim.

Gas isn't weaponised since November 2021, it's weaponised since three decades.

[Vadim 68]

No, it would deprive them of security. You can't feel it in Sweden, you won't read about it in Deutsche Welle - but Putin liked to switch gas off on a whim.

Gas isn't weaponised since November 2021, it's weaponised since three decades.

You do know how much gas Ukraine used to steal on its way to the EU and how many bills they neglected to pay right? Do you get free energy if you fail to pay the bill?

Seems every time Gazprom is taken into a Court, the court decides in Gazprom favour as upholding its contracts.

EU has been living with the risk, as you write, for 3 decades. Obviously the risk assesment was to go with the cheap gas, despite the risk.

[WszystekPoTrochu]

You do know how much gas Ukraine used to steal on its way to the EU and how many bills they neglected to pay right? Do you get free energy if you fail to pay the bill?

Seems every time Gazprom is taken into a Court, the court decides in Gazprom favour as upholding its contracts.

EU has been living with the risk, as you write, for 3 decades. Obviously the risk assesment was to go with the cheap gas, despite the risk.

no, the EU has not been living with the risk for 3 decades. It's been living with it since the 2004 accession. "old" EU is not treated this way.
I know how much Ukraine "stole". The usual procedure looked like this:
- Putinland shuts Ukraine off for no reason
- Ukraine mitigates the situation by tapping into trans european transfer
- Putinland accuses Ukraine of theft, conveniently forgetting about not fulfilling non-transit contracts

Poland has been now illegally cut off due to declining the non-contract payment in rubles. Ukraine has been paying for gas despite being at war and receives no gas nonetheless.

Also, don't overestimate the income from gas transfer. It's counted in billions, but 2-3 billion usd is not high enough to matter when we're talking international politics.

[gypsie]

I watched a very good Aljazerra interview the Russian economy the other day. Sorry no link.

There's a distinction between a country's finances and a country's economy.
The sanctions are aimed at the economy.
Russian finances are propped up by a few basic tricks (that can't last), including linking the currency to gold (which it probably doesn't have enough of and is susceptible to a run), and by an increase in demand for Russian gas and oil. Europe is pouring money into Russia, demand for Russian hydrocarbons has doubled since the start of the war. Europe hates itself for its dependence - Putin may have saved us from Climate Change.

Meanwhile the economy is being eaten from within.
All the capital machinery, literally and figuratively, is wearing out and there's no way to refresh it.
It is expected it'll be the third or even fourth quarter before the economy will feel the erosion. Then it will begin to effect the finances. It will probably be a grind rather than a bubble bursting. Depending on the panic from Russians.

The Russians are gambling that they can get round supply issues before the grind really bites hard. There's a macabre race on at the moment; Western sanctions verses Russia finding a way round.
It all depends on the west holding its nerve and its citizens swallowing inflation and fuel prices.
Who will win? Putin, or Western citizens.

[epoxyboy]

If the ruble is near a 5-year high, our sanctions suck ***. And killing people on both sides is preferred over other options.

Stop thinking like an American about to go overseas on holiday. High does not equal good, at least not for the Russian economy.
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/20...pital-controls

Pete