Ukraine

[dutchpp]

The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, March 29.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...-march-29-2023

Key Takeaways

• Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow on March 29 to review strategic and long-term cooperation agreements that will likely intensify Russia and Iran’s bilateral security relationship.
• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin seized on the recent story of the sentencing of a Tula Oblast father for his 12-year-old daughter’s antiwar drawing to promote the Wagner Group’s reputation and ameliorate his own personal image.
• Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov’s demonstrative response to an attack on a police station in Chechnya suggests that he may be concerned about the stability of his authoritarian rule.
• Russian authorities arrested Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) naval department head Colonel Sergey Volkov for corruption-related charges.
• Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov stated on March 27 that Ukrainian forces may be planning to launch a counteroffensive in April or May depending on weather conditions.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in and around Bakhmut and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front.
• International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi visited the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) for the second time.
• Russian occupation authorities continue to implement measures to integrate occupied territories into the Russian administrative and legal system.
• The Belarusian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported that planned activities are ongoing to call up those liable for military service for military training and to retrain reserve servicemen in military registration specialties.

[Johan R]

If you wanted to discuss USA, you'd go here:
http://forum.woodenboat.com/showthre...=worst+hegemon

but you don't you only want do water this thread down, don't you

Self appointed internet police are hysterically funny.....pathetic, but funny.

The US Biden administration, despite its words to support the choices made by Ukraine, are trying to talk down and dissuade Zelensky after he says he wants to meet with Xi in Kyiv, and the China peace plan.

Biden is worried more of the global optics of a deal being done with the aid of China, than of dead Ukrainians, the past 12 months have shown that, if you cared to pay attention.

[George.]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65119595

Mr Muratov has picked up worrying signs inside Russia.




"We see how state propaganda is preparing people to think that nuclear war isn't a bad thing," he says. "On TV channels here, nuclear war and nuclear weapons are promoted as if they're advertising pet food."




"They announce: 'We've got this missile, that missile, another kind of missile.' They talk about targeting Britain and France; about sparking a nuclear tsunami that washes away America. Why do they say this? So that people here are ready."




On Russian state TV recently, a prominent talk-show host suggested that Russia "should declare any military target on the territory of France, Poland and the United Kingdom a legitimate target for [Russia]".




The same presenter has also suggested "flattening an island with strategic nuclear weapons and carrying out a test launch or firing of tactical nuclear weapons, so that no one has any illusions".

This really sucks. I do believe Putin is trying to set the conditions to use nukes if Crimea is invaded, or if the Russian front collapses.

[heimlaga]

Self appointed internet police are hysterically funny.....pathetic, but funny.

The US Biden administration, despite its words to support the choices made by Ukraine, are trying to talk down and dissuade Zelensky after he says he wants to meet with Xi in Kyiv, and the China peace plan.

Biden is worried more of the global optics of a deal being done with the aid of China, than of dead Ukrainians, the past 12 months have shown that, if you cared to pay attention.

Now that is Russian propaganda refering to Russian propaganda for basic facts. There has never been any such dissuation taking place outside the minds of Russian propagandists. Only a healthy bit of scepticism because we all know that if Putin gets something he will want more. Therefore a compromize peace with Russia getting territories from Ukraine must per definition include in the deal that Ukraine immediately at the signing of the treaty becomes a full member of a massively reinfoced Nato. To dissuade Putin from stating yet another war and then another taking a bite of Ukraine each time until it is all swallowed and he can go for the next European country and then the next. What do you as a Putinist Russian rekon to be the likelyhood of Putin signing such a treaty?

I think you should start looking around for a good eascape route Vadim-Johan. Putin will not allow the war to end while he is in power and sooner or later even professional internet trolls will be eligible for conscription. Or maybe you like the idea of being sent to die in yet another mass assault of by then even less well equipped mobiki. At that stage of the war you will likely carry the same model Nagant riffle as the Russian ockupants who "disapeared" in the other end of this village in 1918.

[skuthorp]

a very interesting article. In a big way Ukraine is a victim of it's own expectations. Russia will not lose in the long run, not cannot, will not. And if it even looks like it will be pushed out of Crimea then all options will be on the table. Allowing Russia to 'win' may be the path tho an eventual settlement, a Ukranian 'win' may be even more terrible.

[Johan R]

Now that is Russian propaganda refering to Russian propaganda for basic facts. There has never been any such dissuation taking place outside the minds of Russian propagandists. .

As usual, nothing you write is close to reality. I pity you and the fact you are unable to source better information.

The peace initiative that involved Turkiye and Israel was struck down by the US, according to the Israelis themselves.

You know less about politics than you do about rifles, nothing wrong with a Nagant in the right hands.

[Johan R]

.......

Let me assist you. This is the 12 point peace plan suggested by China.

• The sovereignty of all countries is respected
• Abandoning the Cold War mentality
• Ceasing hostilities
• Resuming peace talks
• Resolving the humanitarian crisis
• Protecting civilians and prisoners of war (PoWs)
• Keeping nuclear power plants safe
• Reducing strategic risks
• Facilitating grain exports
• Stopping unilateral sanctions
• Keeping industrial and supply chains stable

Promoting post-conflict reconstruction


This is what Ursula says:

China must press for a “just peace” in Ukraine, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said.
“Any peace plan which would, in effect, consolidate Russian annexations is simply not a viable plan. We have to be frank on this point,” von der Leyen said in a speech in Brussels on the eve of a trip to Beijing.

Where in the above 12 points does China say anything about conceding territory? Both she and Biden have been voicing complaints about things not part of the plan. The bigger issue being, if we are being told to respect Ukraines right to sovereignty, why is the EU and the US telling Zelensky what deal he should be making?

[Johan R]

This really sucks. I do believe Putin is trying to set the conditions to use nukes if Crimea is invaded, or if the Russian front collapses.

Having the UK put its depleted uranium shells delivery across the headlines has done nothing but exacerbate the situation, and played right into Putin being able to justify to the Russian population the possible use of nuclear weapons (in his mind).

There is no advantage to DU when tungsten tipped can do the same job , without the risk of spreading uranium across the bread basket of Europe. The Europeans here may want to reconsider where their bread is coming from before applauding the idea, but it does not seem critical thinking is applied by many.

[Garret]

Let me assist you. This is the 12 point peace plan suggested by China.

• The sovereignty of all countries is respected
• Abandoning the Cold War mentality
• Ceasing hostilities
• Resuming peace talks
• Resolving the humanitarian crisis
• Protecting civilians and prisoners of war (PoWs)
• Keeping nuclear power plants safe
• Reducing strategic risks
• Facilitating grain exports
• Stopping unilateral sanctions
• Keeping industrial and supply chains stable

Promoting post-conflict reconstruction


This is what Ursula says:

China must press for a “just peace” in Ukraine, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said.
“Any peace plan which would, in effect, consolidate Russian annexations is simply not a viable plan. We have to be frank on this point,” von der Leyen said in a speech in Brussels on the eve of a trip to Beijing.

Where in the above 12 points does China say anything about conceding territory? Both she and Biden have been voicing complaints about things not part of the plan. The bigger issue being, if we are being told to respect Ukraines right to sovereignty, why is the EU and the US telling Zelensky what deal he should be making?

Meaningless platitudes with nothing specific to address any real issues. Comes under "Talk is cheap"

[Peerie Maa]

Having the UK put its depleted uranium shells delivery across the headlines has done nothing but exacerbate the situation, and played right into Putin being able to justify to the Russian population the possible use of nuclear weapons (in his mind).

There is no advantage to DU when tungsten tipped can do the same job , without the risk of spreading uranium across the bread basket of Europe. The Europeans here may want to reconsider where their bread is coming from before applauding the idea, but it does not seem critical thinking is applied by many.

Straw man.

Pootins propaganda machine demonstrates that Pootins government is a corrupt to be even considering a policy of mutual destruction. You are comparing some inert but chemically toxic dust with turning your cities into radioactive glass.
And you support this lunatic?
Seriously?

[L.W. Baxter]

Let me assist you. This is the 12 point peace plan suggested by China.

• The sovereignty of all countries is respected
• Abandoning the Cold War mentality
• Ceasing hostilities
• Resuming peace talks
• Resolving the humanitarian crisis
• Protecting civilians and prisoners of war (PoWs)
• Keeping nuclear power plants safe
• Reducing strategic risks
• Facilitating grain exports
• Stopping unilateral sanctions
• Keeping industrial and supply chains stable

Promoting post-conflict reconstruction


This is what Ursula says:

China must press for a “just peace” in Ukraine, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said.
“Any peace plan which would, in effect, consolidate Russian annexations is simply not a viable plan. We have to be frank on this point,” von der Leyen said in a speech in Brussels on the eve of a trip to Beijing.

Where in the above 12 points does China say anything about conceding territory? Both she and Biden have been voicing complaints about things not part of the plan. The bigger issue being, if we are being told to respect Ukraines right to sovereignty, why is the EU and the US telling Zelensky what deal he should be making?

indeed.

where in the above 12 points does china say anything about conceding territory.

china says precisely nothing about russia conceding ukrainian territory. it is a plan to "consolidate russian annexations" just as said.

if ukraine wants to end the war like that they can surrender today. the e.u. and the u.s. are only important to ukraine if they want to continue fighting for their sovereignty.

[Johan R]

Pootins propaganda machine demonstrates that Pootins government is a corrupt to be even considering a policy of mutual destruction.

Mutual destruction? By who? The fact Ukraine is not part of NATO is what makes it more likely than not.

You are comparing some inert but chemically toxic dust with turning your cities into radioactive glass.

What cities? The only place at risk at present is Ukraine.

And you support this lunatic?

Are you related with Hiemlaga? He does not understand NO either.

Seriously?

More than you apparently. Ask the US and UK veterans about "toxic dust" before applauding its use.

[Johan R]

Meaningless platitudes with nothing specific to address any real issues. Comes under "Talk is cheap"

Peace has to start somewhere is the most important part. Where is the peace plan drawn up by the EU/UK/US, that does not contain pre-conceived conditions BEFORE a cease fire? Stopping the fighting is only the first stage, the other details can work out over time. Seems to me a North/South Korea situation is currently the most likely outcome with Donbas a ruined no mans land.

[L.W. Baxter]

i doubt zelensky et al are interested in the chinese "peace plan".

zelensky can use a meeting with xi to get more from the west.

[dutchpp]

Ah, a nice drawn-out discussion about the content of fairytale peace plans.
Perhaps the Russian propaganda machine minions are increasing their trivial efforts to influence the West because the mafia clan around Putin is afraid of what will happen in a few weeks from now?
And let's muddy the water a bit more, let's arrest an American journalist on espionage charges, it's pathetic.

[skuthorp]

I wonder if 'Johan' is getting pressure from above?

[Garret]

Can we just stop with all the "bot"/paid troll stuff? Maybe someone is, maybe they aren't - though I find it unlikely a bot/paid troll would post boat plans on another thread. Anyway, debate or not, agree or not, but the name-calling is just out of hand IMO. Aren't we better than this?

[George.]

Can we just stop with all the "bot"/paid troll stuff?

If only.

[Gerarddm]

Drumph's laughable plan that he can end the war in " one day " is probably to threaten to nuke Ukraine unless they surrender.

[L.W. Baxter]

he would end the ukraine war in one day the same way he ended the war in afghanistan. during the next president's administration.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

All the crook is doing is keeping Putin’s hopes alive.

[Nicholas Carey]

This is the 12 point peace plan suggested by China.

• The sovereignty of all countries is respected
• Ceasing hostilities

These 2 points require that Russia withdraw its armed forces from the territory of Ukraine, including Crimea, and cease interfering in the internal affairs of Ukraine (and the other ex-SSRs and ex-Soviet satellites.

China's "peace plan" is nothing more than "Ukraine capitulates to Putin"

It was proposed in consultation with one party — Russia. Dead on arrival.

[sandtown]

but you don't you only want do water this thread down, don't you

Who made you the head of the thread police ??

You only want to control the narrative and stifle an exchange of views.

[sandtown]

These 2 points require that Russia withdraw its armed forces from the territory of Ukraine, including Crimea, and cease interfering in the internal affairs of Ukraine (and the other ex-SSRs and ex-Soviet satellites. .

And this too .. . the only way for this war to end with any kind of justice and with civilization intact is for Russia to leave Ukraine, and for Ukraine to cede nothing to Russia,

Why not leave that up to the folks of the Ukr ??

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Who made you the head of the thread police ??

You only want to control the narrative and stifle an exchange of views.

Mikolaj got the job when you fired me.

For you, we are all Spartacus.

It would be so much nicer if you would start another thread to discuss the rights and wrongs of the war and left this one to people who simply want to post information about it here.

[George Jung]

Bot lover! Wyncha just go back to Russia!

If they are or not, what difference does it make if they tout the same Russki-phile message? We know there are bots, that Russia has a yuuge investment in them, that they are operative, and have been, in the US and elsewhere around the globe since before the Russian attack on Ukraine. And we all also know that the only way for this war to end with any kind of justice and with civilization intact is for Russia to leave Ukraine, and for Ukraine to cede nothing to Russia, ever. No matter who promulgates any plan other than the one where Putin is dragged through the streets.

If you don't think so, then—bot, bot!

It's rather Garret's MO; he tends towards 'even-handed', I'd say, to a fault. 'Can't we all just be friends?' Not realizing - no, we can't. If it walks like a bot, quacks like a bot - it's a bot. This ain't rocket science.

[sandtown]

Pootins propaganda machine demonstrates that Pootins government is a corrupt to be even considering a policy of mutual destruction.

Might there be some way for you to translate that into a coherent sentence ??

[George Jung]

The rest of us caught its meaning, just fine. Must've been lost in your translation.

[L.W. Baxter]

And this too .. .the only way for this war to end with any kind of justice and with civilization intact is for Russia to leave Ukraine, and for Ukraine to cede nothing to Russia,

Why not leave that up to the folks of the Ukr ??

that's a great idea. why don't you.

[George Jung]

Hehehe.... oops!

[Splodge]

Trolling. The trolls are very effective at shutting down this thread. Information is smothered by a fog of misdirection and discussion thwarted. It is easy to see who they are. Normal people don't post with anything like the frequency of the usual suspects and people who have something to contribute fall by the wayside

[George Jung]

Yep. But for too many here - it's like moths to the flame. We talk about 'ignoring' - but too many won't.

[Garret]

It's rather Garret's MO; he tends towards 'even-handed', I'd say, to a fault. 'Can't we all just be friends?' Not realizing - no, we can't. If it walks like a bot, quacks like a bot - it's a bot. This ain't rocket science.

I have many faults. I'd rather err on the side of open discussion though. I am NOT saying we all need to be friends, but that the name-calling wastes electrons & readers' time. If you (general, not you personally) don't like what someone is doing, ignore them or respond in a respectful manner.

So - many here believe some are bots. Fine - ignore 'em - but we don't need to go on & on about it.

[George Jung]

And..... I'd disagree. these bots have one aim - disrupt the info exchange here, promote their $hitty propaganda/pro-putin carp; and on a larger scale, disrupt our society, our elections.

I see no reason to not call them out, and call them 'names' (btw - bots is what they are), at every possible opportunity. Of course, if everyone would ignore them, that'd work, too. Not gonna happen.

But treat with 'kid gloves'? Respect? WTH? I don't think so. Neither should you.

[Johan R]

. Aren't we better than this?

You are, clearly Mr Jung disagrees with you and wishes you to censor yourself, almost as if he wishes to deprive you of your right to free speech.