Ukraine

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Here’s an interview with Stefan Korshak on Polish television’s English language service on the subject of President Zelensky’s visit to European capitals yesterday and today:

https://youtu.be/FClr97etHg4

[ERGR]

Here's an article on Seymour Hersh, if wonder about his credibility:
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/m...-seymour-hersh
...and a link to an article that trashes Hersh's theory:
https://twitter.com/BadBalticTakes/s...ToxfHV3qYYjzkg

/Erik

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

I have met the guy, and few journalists are as good .. lots of folks dispute the use of chem weapons in Syria.

Seymour Myron "Sy" Hersh (born April 8, 1937) is an American investigative journalist, and political writer.^[6]
Hersh first gained recognition in 1969 for exposing the My Lai Massacre and its cover-up during the Vietnam War, for which he received the 1970 Pulitzer Prize for International Reporting. During the 1970s, Hersh covered the Watergate scandal for The New York Times and revealed the clandestine bombing of Cambodia. In 2004, he reported on the U.S. military's mistreatment of detainees at Abu Ghraib prison. He has also won two National Magazine Awards and five George Polk Awards. In 2004, he received the George Orwell Award.^[7]
Hersh has accused the Obama administration of lying about the events surrounding the death of Osama bin Laden, and disputed the claim that the Assad regime used chemical weapons on civilians in the Syrian Civil War. Both assertions have stirred controversy.

You “have met him and few investigative journalists are as good.”

Are you the Chairman of the Pulitzer committee?

I am not as eminent as you but I did have some dealings in the 1970s with one of the best ever teams of investigative journalists, the Sunday Times Insight Team of that decade, and that is what they were, a team. The only way that investigative journalism works is if it’s done by a team. There’s just too much ground to cover to check everything that comes up for an independent individual to do it. Perhaps that is where the once great Seymour Hersh went wrong - as he certainly did with his Kennedy book in the late 90s - and he has stayed wrong, with one non-fact-checked sensational tale after another. He was once great, but that was a very long time ago, when investigative journalism sold newspapers.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Does it occur to our pro-Moscow friends that Seymour Hersh published his article on the pipeline bombing not in the New Yorker, which has carried his stuff for years, and which fact checks, but on Substack … which doesn’t.

[Landrith]

Does it occur to our pro-Moscow friends that Seymour Hersh published his article on the pipeline bombing not in the New Yorker, which has carried his stuff for years, and which fact checks, but on Substack … which doesn’t.

He has long since been "unpublished" along with some of the Left's corruption investigative journalists
Corporate Socialism which the Bilge maintains is not Fascism is pretty narrow in what is permitted. Eventually, even 60 Minutes was done in by Big Tobacco.

I recall the ending of maybe the best ever US spy movie, Three Days of the Condor. Robert Redford's character points out The NY Times offices across the street, but Cliff Robertson playing the C.I.A. bad guy replies what makes you think they will publish it. We didn't really have the UK style official secrets act back then, but Big Petroleum got the coverage it approved. Today in USA your corrupt assistant town dog catcher can have you "unpublished".

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

He has long since been "unpublished" along with some of the Left's corruption investigative journalists
Corporate Socialism which the Bilge maintains is not Fascism is pretty narrow in what is permitted. Eventually, even 60 Minutes was done in by Big Tobacco.

I recall the ending of maybe the best ever US spy movie, Three Days of the Condor. Robert Redford's character points out The NY Times offices across the street, but Cliff Robertson playing the C.I.A. bad guy replies what makes you think they will publish it. We didn't really have the UK style official secrets act back then, but Big Petroleum got the coverage it approved. Today in USA your corrupt assistant town dog catcher can have you "unpublished".

Well, if you submit stuff that doesn’t pass fact checking, you aren’t going to get published by a serious magazine, are you?

[AndyG]

IAlso, Korshak's latest:

https://medium.com/@Stefan.Korshak/f...s-6e59905c9f03

The standout lines:

Russian war policy in Ukraine isn’t a war policy at all but, arguably, a Kremlin musical chairs fight. Practically all the players are making battlefield decisions, or not making decisions they should, because of the succession crisis they know is coming in Moscow.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

A highly topical lecture from Perun:

https://youtu.be/Qj9HD8MdAFs

[dutchpp]

The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, February 9.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...ebruary-9-2023

Key Takeaways

• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced that the Wagner Group has entirely stopped recruiting prisoners.
• The Kremlin continues to pursue measures to gradually prepare Russia’s defense industrial base for a protracted war in Ukraine.
• A prominent Wagner-linked Russian milblogger called for the dismissal of Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu over a Russian military uniform procurement scandal.
• The Kremlin continues to illustrate that it is unwilling to curb divisive rhetoric from ultranationalist pro-war figures.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast and the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area and continued offensive operations around Bakhmut.
• Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack in Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russian sources claimed that the Russian military integrated a Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) volunteer formation into the Russian Armed Forces.
• Russian sources claimed that Russian authorities detained a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group attempting to assassinate Russian occupation officials.

[Landrith]

I have seen the recruiting videos for foreign volunteers to join Russia. I can't get beyond my 1980's Infantry days of seeing that Soviet Union soldiers didn't even use socks. Just a wrapped fabric strip. Or the Ukrainian troops in the early 2000's that would train with us and break down and cry at civilian gun stores remembering their family stories of the Black Maria and Cheka taking their relatives away in the middle of the night. Or the Holodomor that seems to have been unsuccessfully attempted on the US last year.

But, I think Bilge reality and ground forces reality have diverged. I wonder if Victoria Nuland and NATO had an asymetrical solution to foreseeable move Westward once the balloon goes up in a week or two. Otherwise, Uncle Sam has a lot of blood on his hands.

[skuthorp]

The boundary between advice/arms supplies/participation is getting rather thin for NATO.

[Nicholas Carey]

Well, if you submit stuff that doesn’t pass fact checking, you aren’t going to get published by a serious magazine, are you?

I believe that the New Yorker parted ways with Seymour Hirsch several years ago, after his piece about chemical weapons use in Syria did not pass New Yorker mister (famed for having the best fact checkers in the world). He then pitched to the Washington Post, which similarly passed on it. And it was finally published by the London Review of Books.

Where it drew a lot of criticism.

Also his earlier story, a few month earlier, that wound up at the London Review of Books on the killing of bin Laden, also controversial:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seymou...sama_bin_Laden

Which likewise may well have failed to pass muster at other journals.

[skuthorp]

As long as it sells he, and his publisher don't care…….

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Something is going on in Moldova:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64593488

[George Jung]

What's your take on the Romanian claims? Trying to 'draw in' NATO?

Just mulling - but simply losing 'cannon fodder' is not going to deter putin. Really needs to be an option to inflict some pain on russia. But... God knows what that would lead to.

[sandtown]

From the Institute for Publc Accuracy ahd FAIR State Dept. Denies Latest Detailed Report That U.S. Blew up Nord Stream On Wednesday, investigative reporter Seymour Hersh published the piece "How America Took Out The Nord Stream Pipeline" on Substack. On Thursday, Sam Husseini questioned State Department spokesperson Ned Price about the story, see video and transcript: "State Dept. Denies Latest Allegations that U.S. Government Blew up Nord Stream," also on Substack. The Nord Stream pipeline had provided Russian natural gas to Germany. Many current and former U.S. officials had called for their destruction prior to the bombing. BRYCE GREENE, greenebj@iu.edu, @TheGreeneBJ Greene wrote "U.S. Media’s Intellectual No-Fly-Zone on U.S. Culpability in Nord Stream Attack" and other pieces related to the Ukraine war for the media watch group FAIR. Greene said today: "Two days ago, legendary reporter Seymour Hersh released a detailed article about U.S. involvement in the Nord Stream 2 pipeline explosion last September. Based on a source with knowledge of the matter, Hersh alleges that the U.S., in conjunction with the Norwegian armed forces, planted and detonated the explosives that damaged the pipelines. "This is significant given the ongoing mystery surrounding the attack. While U.S. media and government officials were quick to point at Russia, critics have cited the U.S.'s long-standing opposition to the pipeline as reason to suspect U.S. involvement. In early 2022, both Victoria Nuland and Joe Biden made direct statements about shutting down Nord Stream 2 in the context of a Russian invasion. Additionally, both Nuland and Blinken publicly expressed explicit satisfaction at the pipelines' demise. "Seymour Hersh's reporting, while unconfirmed by other sources, does provide an explanation for U.S. behavior and is in line with stated U.S. objectives of cutting Germany off of Russian gas. It also gives operational details. When asked about the reporting, State Department spokesperson Ned Price denied what was in the report and claimed that Hersh was not a credible source."

[Peerie Maa]

. . . . .

Still flogging that dead Hersh horse then.
Why would they? What would be the point?
https://www.ft.com/content/6c6352c3-...e-7cf02328f544
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/25/b...al-russia.html
and

Germany is on Track to Meeting its Gas Saving Target

By Yushu Chen and Galen Sher

August 12, 2022


A partial shutoff of Russian gas is already piling pressure on Germany’s economy. In July, we estimated that a complete shutoff of the remaining (40 percent of) Russian gas supplies would reduce gross domestic product by almost 3 percent next year and raise inflation significantly. The effects could be even worse if the winter is particularly cold.

Like other European Union member states, Germany has agreed to cut gas consumption by 15 percent between August 2022 and March 2023, to avoid gas shortages and spiraling prices. The country is already on track to achieve this target. As the chart below shows, gas consumption was already down by about 17 percent in May, 8 percent in June and 15 percent in July compared with averages of the past five years.

What caused this drop in gas consumption? Temperature is unlikely to be the main explanation. The number of “heating degree days”—a typical measure to forecast gas demand based on the number of cold days and the coldness of those days—was similar in June and July to the same months in previous years.
Instead, the soaring cost of energy seems to have caused consumers to save gas. Large businesses are making especially severe cuts. Comparing June with the previous five years, gas prices for businesses were up by 267 percent, which is likely to account for their reductions in gas demand. Carmakers, for instance, say they are already cutting gas consumption by switching to renewable energy.
While gas saving helps build resilience ahead of winter, it comes with short-term costs: manufacturing and services activity contracted in July for the first time in two years, according to surveys of purchasing managers. The IMF revised down projections for Germany’s economic growth to 1.2 percent in 2022 and 0.8 percent in 2023 due in large part to higher energy costs.
What could help further
So far, households have made only a small contribution to gas savings because most have contracts with suppliers that fix the gas price for about a year—though this might change soon. As part of a package of measures to enhance energy security after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Federal Cabinet on August 4 approved a temporary levy that will encourage gas savings by raising prices paid by households (and businesses) from October. The government has indicated an intention to accompany the levy with additional relief to households, which should ideally take the form of targeted income support.
Higher savings of gas by households would relieve firms from some of the pressure to save gas. In turn, this burden-sharing could lower the risk of a recession. To save even more gas, as the IMF explains in its recent staff report and blog, the government could compensate users for reducing gas consumption and establish programs to exchange gas heaters for electric heat pumps.

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles...-saving-target

[heimlaga]

Did you read the Sy Hersh article ?? He was roundly denounced in 1968 by the USG for his truthful reporting about Mi Lai.

And your logic makes zero sense - the US openly said the pipe would not open, and opposed the Nord2 even before the war began; and if Russia wanted to shut it down all they had to do was throw a switch.

If you had read up on independent sources or if you taken a quick look eastwards through binoculars from some suitable vantage point in the southeastern corner of Finland you would know that Russia already had thrown that switch before the pipeline was blown up.
There had been a gigantic gas flare burning for many weeks in Trångsund (Vysotsk) very exactly at the Russian end of the Nordstream1 all while the gas plow in the pipeline kept falling and the Russians said they had delivery problems. The gas pressure tended to change a pattern that coincided very closely with political tensions and did not look like typical repair work.
That is the facts we have to go by.
Somebody blew up a pipeline which was working only at a fraction of it's capacity and there was a Russcist manning the valve. This also coincided perfevtly with a Russia shutting off gas and electricity deliveries to Finland and Estonia and a Russcist domestic propaganda campaign telling every Russian that their mighty country was preparing to freeze the Europeans into submission by cutting energy supplies.

Logically the ones who put a definitive end to the pipeline farse must have been either Russia looking for a way to cut deliveries while maintaining face or some European country near the Russian border fearing Russian influence. A cannot imagine that even the worst madmen in CIA would be bonkers enough to do it as USA had much less to gain in the short term than Russia and much less to gain in the long term than either Finland or Estonia or Latvia or Lithuania or Poland.

[George Jung]

Our propagandists don't do too well in this thread!

Too many here actually 'in the know'. Thanks.

[George.]

Our propagandists don't do too well in this thread!

Too many here actually 'in the know'. Thanks.

Best anti-fake news mechanism there is. No need to ban people or posts in a community of thinking people.

[sandtown]

If you had read up on independent sources or if you taken a quick look eastwards through binoculars from some suitable vantage point in the southeastern corner of Finland you would know that Russia already had thrown that switch before the pipeline was blown up..

That is true - Russia was already slowing deliveries.

But blowing up the pipeline to many of us makes no sense from the Rooskie point of view because it took away their leverage - i.e., the ability to re-start the gas flow as part of some deal.

Biden and other officials said that the US was going to stop the pipeline (Nord #2 for sure), so why should we not believe them??

From a journalist's perspective, Hersh seems at this point to have one source, and that may in part be why the MSM has not picked up the story. Two sources would be much better, And I am sure Sy is working on that.

And may I remind you that we are coming up on the 20th anniversary of the giant protests against the impending Iraq invasion by the US war criminals.

If you supported that war, based on totally implausible lies, you committed a serious mistake which naturally leads many of us to question your analytical abilties.

Those of us who got it right in 2003 were subjected to the same kind of abuse being hurled about now.

Actually, it was worse in 2003 because then we were on the receiving end of actual physical threats, as well as threats to our jobs.

Now in 2023 that has not happened . . . yet.

[Peerie Maa]

. . . . . . .

Sandy, just because this washed up has-been published stuff that aligns with your prejudice, does not make either of you right. It is called Confirmation bias

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

A highly topical lecture from Perun:

https://youtu.be/Qj9HD8MdAFs

I recommended this already and now I’m going to recommend it again. Perun just gets better and better.

[Catalina 22]

I recommended this already and now I’m going to recommend it again. Perun just gets better and better.

Thank you for the reminder, I did take finally take the time to listen. Not easy for these Southern Merican ears but I am a little smarter than I was an hour ago.

[sandtown]

I recommended this already and now I’m going to recommend it again. Perun just gets better and better.

OK, I will watch that on your say-so . . .

[dutchpp]

The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, February 10.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...bruary-10-2023

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces launched another massive series of missile and drone strikes across Ukraine.
• Russian missile overflights of NATO territory are highly unlikely to prompt an escalation, and ISW continues to assess with high confidence that Russian President Vladimir Putin is unwilling to risk a direct conflict with NATO.
• Recent footage of a failed Russian assault near Vuhledar, Donetsk Oblast has become the next point of neuralgia in the Russian information space and demonstrated the systemic poor training of Russian mobilized personnel.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations northwest of Svatove and around Kreminna.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka-Donetsk City areas as well as in western Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian forces reportedly conducted a limited ground attack in Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russian authorities are likely placing restrictions on movement in and out of Russia to support crypto-mobilization efforts.
• Russian officials and occupation authorities are intensifying measures to integrate children in occupied territories using government-funded civic organizations.

[WX]

Putin's fake war.
Well worth watching if you can.
https://iview.abc.net.au/video/LABS202113839752

Okay I found it on Youtube.

<a href="https://iview.abc.net.au/video/LABS202113839752" target="_blank">

[C. Ross]

Putin's fake war.
Well worth watching if you can.

Very interesting. Thanks.

[Garret]

Very interesting. Thanks.

It was indeed - thanks for me as well.

Actually - thanks to all the folks posting good info here - this thread is my goto for learning about what's happening.

[LeeG]

It was indeed - thanks for me as well.

Actually - thanks to all the folks posting good info here - this thread is my goto for learning about what's happening.

ditto

[L.W. Baxter]

everybody been tampered with

[LeeG]

Putin's fake war.
Well worth watching if you can.
https://iview.abc.net.au/video/LABS202113839752

Okay I found it on Youtube.

<a href="https://iview.abc.net.au/video/LABS202113839752" target="_blank">

The obfuscation/gas lighting the narrator speaks of is an insidious tactic that works.

[Nicholas Carey]

Fixed it for you.

Putin's fake war.
Well worth watching if you can.

https://iview.abc.net.au/video/LABS202113839752

Okay I found it on Youtube.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBOE6blxerI

[ERGR]

I'm following a Swedish site currently focused on Ukraine. Each day starts with a blog by Lars Wideräng followed by sometimes over 1000 comments. Contributors spouting the Kremlin view are immediately banned and not allowed to disrupt the discussion. News from the fronts in Ukraine reach this site with minimal delay from Swedish speaking contributors in Ukraine.
Anyway, the picture of the ongoing war I get from this site is that the feared Russian offensive has been ongoing for a week or so. Russia throws what they have towards the Ukrainian defence lines and get cut to pieces, usually without gaining anything at all but sometimes achieving minimal gains (Soledar as an example). Yesterday was an all time high regarding dead Russians, over 1100 soldiers and officers. The most common analysis from the contributors to the site is that Russia is attacking in force at several locations along the front, hoping to achieve a break through somewhere so the Ukrainians will have to commit their reserves. Time is running out for the Russians so expectation is that they will commit all their reserves before having achieved a break through, and they will most likely also be cut to pieces.
Ukraine "win" at this moment if they can essentially hold the lines without committing too much of their reserves, while bleeding the Russians at the same time. The expectation is that Ukraine is saving up to a late spring or early summer offensive, when the fancy new western weapons have arrived. It's not looking good for Russia.

A link to the Swedish site: Försvar – Cornucopia?

/Erik

[sandtown]

. . . . our pro-Moscow friends.

How about if you stop smearing those with whom you disagree??

I take back my offer to look at that war-mongering vid you are hyping.