Ukraine

[dutchpp]

The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, February 3.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...ebruary-3-2023

Key Takeaways

• The Biden administration announced a new $2.2 billion military aid package to Ukraine on February 3, including precision long-range missiles for HIMARS.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin continued his campaign against certain opposition voices in the domestic information space while continuing to platform critical nationalist milbloggers.
• Russian officials continue to perpetuate the information operation that the war in Ukraine is a direct threat to Russian security through legislative manipulations.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line with an intensified pace of operations near Kreminna.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut.
• Russian forces did not make any confirmed territorial gains in southern Ukraine.
• Western officials reportedly estimate that Russian forces have sustained almost 200,000 casualties in the war in Ukraine.
• Russian officials continue to rely on government-organized non-governmental organizations operating in occupied territories to create the veneer of grassroots support for Russian occupation.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

An article on repairing Russian vehicles captured by the UAF:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...o-change-sides

[johnw]

With respect to the Vladimir/Johan/sock puppet/propagandist argument. . . .

Just out of curiosity, I did a little googling. According to the Humanitarian Data Exchange's dataset Aid Worker KIKA (Killed, Injured, Kidnapped or Arrested) Data at https://data.humdata.org/dataset/sin...er-kka-dataset, there have been no international aid workers injured in Ukraine so far, and just one international aid worker killed in Ukraine. That occurred 25 April 2022, in Zaporizhia Oblast at 47.839 N 35.141 E (+/- 25 km), in "open space" (rather than a building, say). No incident description is given. The victim was killed by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (natch) with a firearm. And the victim worked for a human rights NGO.

As far as other aid workers go, there have been, so far, none injured and just 4 killed in Ukraine, all by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation:

- 2 killed on 15 March 2022 in Donetsk Oblast at 47.096 N 37.550 E when "March 2022: An INGO building was destroyed and two female aid workers were killed when a Russian tank fired at the building."

- 1 killed on 8 April 2022 in Donetsk Oblast at 48.739 N 37.584 E when "April 2022: An NGO volunteer was killed in a train station attack while he was helping IDPs board evacuation trains." The means was "Aerial bombing, missiles, and shelling." The victim worked in "protection".

- 1 killed on 15 December 2022 in Kherson Oblast at 46.641 N 37.550 E when "15 December 2022: A volunteer health worker was killed when the NGO facility was hit by Russian shells." The victim worked for the Ukrainian Red Cross.

So, we're not going to see Vadim's obit? Gee whiz.

[JayInOz]

Vadim claimed- waaay back- to have lost part of a limb, but never did say which part of which limb.
Heard an analyst saying last night that Russia is supposedly going to launch a fresh assault with at least two hundred thousand troops. He went on to say that two hundred thousand is about the number they will require just to maintain the present force for next month, taking into account the number killed, wounded, captured and deserters. Sounds like a fizzer and a lot more dead Russians who didn't want to be there in the first place.
One of the weapons destroyed by the Ukrainians yesterday was built for use in the arctic. Of twelve built two have been destroyed. It seems Russia is bringing in weapons from anywhere they can be had. The troops on the ground have been screaming for months about having nowhere near enough weapons, guns decades older than the soldiers using them, and going days without food supplies arriving. Russia can't equip a massive new campaign as things now stand. One anti Putin Russian journalist said that threats of nuclear war is all they have left. JayInOz

[dutchpp]

The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, January 4.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...ebruary-4-2023

Key Takeaways

• A Russian decisive offensive operation is unlikely to target Zaporizhia City from the western Donetsk–Zaporizhia frontline.
• Russian forces have not shown the capacity to sustain the multiple simultaneous large-scale offensive operations that would be necessary to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk Oblast and seize Zaporizhia City.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has launched a series of efforts to restructure and consolidate the mismatched blend of irregular forces supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine into Russia’s conventional military forces.
• The Russian MoD’s decision to undertake significant structural reform while preparing for a major offensive in eastern Ukraine likely represents an effort by Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov to complete reforms while he has Russian President Vladimir Putin’s often fleeting favor.
• Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is overcompensating for his declining influence by continuing to frame himself as the sole victor in the Bakhmut area.
• Russian and Ukrainian officials exchanged 63 Russian POWs for 116 Ukrainian POWs.
• Russian forces conducted limited offensive operations northwest of Svatove and continued offensive operations around Kreminna.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut and Vuhledar but have slowed the pace of their offensives along the western outskirts of Donetsk City.
• Ukrainian forces continue to target Russian military assets in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast.
• Russian authorities are attempting to reinvigorate force generation efforts by drawing from broader pools of manpower.

[Osborne Russell]

So, we're not going to see Vadim's obit? Gee whiz.

An obit would say where he came from and in whose service he served and which part of which limb and and and.

[Peerie Maa]

An obit would say where he came from and in whose service he served and which part of which limb and and and.

I just has a sneaky thought. Are failed rusbots put in uniform and sent to the front to die for the glory of Pootin?

[sandtown]

What if the EU and US applied the same sanctions to China which they have to Russia?

In case it has escaped your attention, most of the world is not on board with the sanctions.

[gypsie]

^Maybe there could be some qualification of that?

Other information seems to show that most of the world does support action against Russia in some form.

It’s been claimed that countries in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East do not support defending Ukraine.

I think the truth is more nuanced.

Taken from Wikipedia:

Attachment 125959

Attachment 125960

Attachment 125961

[gypsie]

Al Jazeera talking up fighter planes for Ukraine.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/...nes-on-the-way

Ukraine’s allies will agree to provide fighter aircraft to battle Russian forces, the defence minister said, despite recent comments by Western leaders that warplanes would not be forthcoming.

[sandtown]

^Maybe there could be some qualification of that?

Other information seems to show that most of the world does support action against Russia in some form.

A valid point, and thanks for being civil.

[C. Ross]

By one calculation, the countries backing sanctions against Russia constitute 16% of the world’s population but 61% of its GDP. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-po...ctioned-russia

Do I think Russia’s actions are so egregious that any right-thinking country should condemn them? Yes, and we see that in the UN resolutions and foreign aid.

Are some countries truly neutrally-mined, hedging their bets, dependent on Russia, afraid that sanctions will damage their domestic economies, etc.? Sure.

I think the only thing that decides whether sanctions bend Russia is if the countries with leverage join in. Others would know better than me but other than China or India or the OPEC+ countries who remain neutral to Russian-leaning I’m not sure it matters who else joins in.

The bigger question is whether the sanctions will continue to get tighter. Once Europe no longer depends on Russia energy I think the noose tightens.

[ERGR]

At the end of the day we have to do what's right whether we're alone or not, if we're fortunate enough to have that opportunity. My country and almost all other European countries support sanction against Russia, with close to unanimous support from the Swedes. OK, 97% isn't unanimous, but close. Poor countries might not have the option to do what's right and I'm not too critical with regards to that, but they don't have a right to help Russia circumvent our sanctions and acquire sanctioned Swedish technology. We can extend our sanctions to any country that sabotages our sanctions.
Personally, I don't buy anything from any company that to my knowledge has any dealings with Russia. I know that many of my countrymen share this sentiment. The consequence is that most Swedish companies that had business with Russia pull put of Russia, partly because that's what the people in the companies wanted in the first place and our consumer power encourage them to act according to conscience. China is also targeted by consumer reluctance and it will grow unless they join the sanctions against Russia and also start acting less arrogant.
/Erik

[dutchpp]

The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, February 5.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...ebruary-5-2023

Key inflections in ongoing military operations on February 5:

• Current Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov (pending a potential reshuffle) stated that Ukrainian officials expect possible Russian offensive operations ahead of the anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, but noted that there are no Russian strike groups near Kharkiv City.[24]
• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated that Ukraine is not using Western-provided weapons to strike Russian territory.[25]
• US officials stated that Russia and Iran plan to build a factory in Russia to manufacture up to 6,000 drones for combat in Ukraine.[26] A Russian source claimed that Russian arms company Lobaev Arms is beginning to develop and produce these drones.[27]
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kreminna area, and Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces launched renewed offensive operations northwest of Svatove in recent days.[28]
• Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks around Bakhmut.[29] Russian milbloggers are conflicted on whether Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from Bakhmut, as Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin denied claims of a Ukrainian withdrawal.[30] ISW continues to assess that Russian forces are likely unable to force an imminent Ukrainian withdrawal from Bakhmut.
• Russian sources continued to claim that Ukrainian forces are transferring reserves in the Vuhledar direction.[31]
• Geolocated satellite footage shows that Russian forces built a fortified base on the Arabat Spit in northeastern Crimea between October 18, 2022, and January 21, 2023.[32]
• The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continue to import medical personnel from Russia to treat wounded military personnel in occupied Luhansk Oblast, supporting ISW’s assessment that Russian forces are preparing for a renewed offensive in Luhansk Oblast.[33]

[George.]

In case it has escaped your attention, most of the world is not on board with the sanctions.

Most of the world sucks.

[heimfried]

A few thoughts about battle tanks and Germany.

I had a grave feeling of unease before our chancellor decided to deliver Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine and with regard to weapons produced in Germany to allow other countries to do similar things. This was clearly the right move and it came quite late.

The hesitation was criticized hard internationally and also in this forum. It was told that nearly any other country in Europe was impatiently waiting to give some of their own tanks to Ukraine and Germany alone was the road block.

The Polish government (as always) was eager to blame Germany and tell they would give Leopards to Ukraine also without German permission. Annalena Baerbock, our foreign minister, had publicly to tell the Polish government just to hand in a request - she didn't think it would be denied. And it wasn't. When Germany offered weeks ago Patriot missiles to Poland, the Polish government said first "yes" and then "no". It was the pattern of Mr. Kaczynski, a man - not unlike Trump - without any relevant office but with a hard grip at the governing party (PIS) in Poland. He couldn't bear the idea Germany (in his mind an enemy) was helping Poland - note that election in Poland is coming in May. Later on silently the Patriots from Germany were installed in Poland.

Until now very few European countries definitely decleared to deliver Leopards to Ukraine. Poland, Germany and Portugal, Spain and a few other countries are in priciple ready to do so. (Canada did send.)

So much about the road block.

The after war Germany is not very hawkish and I hope, this will stay. But it is clearly threatened by Russia as well as most other European countries, foremost the the countries bordering at Russia, Belorussia and Ukraine. In east Germany were nearly 400,000 Sowjet/Russian soldiers based for 50 Years (1945 - 1994). In the thinking of Putin (also in Germany as part of KGB) there could well be a "feeling" that mother Russia should also be include a part of Germany because of its Russian culture (to teach Russian language was mandatory in all schools in DDR).

What Scholz had to consider before the grave decision was his oath of office
"I swear that I will dedicate my efforts to the well-being of the German people, promote their welfare, protect them from harm, uphold and defend the Basic Law and the laws of the Federation, perform my duties conscientiously and do justice to all. So help me God.”

Ukraine shall win.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

A few thoughts about battle tanks and Germany.

I had a grave feeling of unease before our chancellor decided to deliver Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine and with regard to weapons produced in Germany to allow other countries to do similar things. This was clearly the right move and it came quite late.

The hesitation was criticized hard internationally and also in this forum. It was told that nearly any other country in Europe was impatiently waiting to give some of their own tanks to Ukraine and Germany alone was the road block.

The Polish government (as always) was eager to blame Germany and tell they would give Leopards to Ukraine also without German permission. Annalena Baerbock, our foreign minister, had publicly to tell the Polish government just to hand in a request - she didn't think it would be denied. And it wasn't. When Germany offered weeks ago Patriot missiles to Poland, the Polish government said first "yes" and then "no". It was the pattern of Mr. Kaczynski, a man - not unlike Trump - without any relevant office but with a hard grip at the governing party (PIS) in Poland. He couldn't bear the idea Germany (in his mind an enemy) was helping Poland - note that election in Poland is coming in May. Later on silently the Patriots from Germany were installed in Poland.

Until now very few European countries definitely decleared to deliver Leopards to Ukraine. Poland, Germany and Portugal, Spain and a few other countries are in priciple ready to do so. (Canada did send.)

So much about the road block.

The after war Germany is not very hawkish and I hope, this will stay. But it is clearly threatened by Russia as well as most other European countries, foremost the the countries bordering at Russia, Belorussia and Ukraine. In east Germany were nearly 400,000 Sowjet/Russian soldiers based for 50 Years (1945 - 1994). In the thinking of Putin (also in Germany as part of KGB) there could well be a "feeling" that mother Russia should also be include a part of Germany because of its Russian culture (to teach Russian language was mandatory in all schools in DDR).

What Scholz had to consider before the grave decision was his oath of office
"I swear that I will dedicate my efforts to the well-being of the German people, promote their welfare, protect them from harm, uphold and defend the Basic Law and the laws of the Federation, perform my duties conscientiously and do justice to all. So help me God.”

Ukraine shall win.

Thank you for an excellent post.

[sandtown]

Yes, good post . . . . but how can Russia be a threat to Germany since they cannot even defeat Ukr ??

I really don't see that. And yes, when I was there a while back I was almost surprised at how anti-war the young people were.

And here is more evidence that some countries in the West do not want the war to end.


https://news.antiwar.com/2023/02/05/...m_medium=email

[Peerie Maa]

. . .

Untill Pootin is deposed Russia will continue to be a threat to European stability. Meanwhile the attackers must be driven out of Ukraine with their tails between their legs.
A Diskworld's Greebo style of victory. Greebo does not want to kill his adversaries, he wants them alive to remember that they were thourouly beaten.

[sandtown]

Untill Pootin is deposed Russia will continue to be a threat to European stability. Meanwhile the attackers must be driven out of Ukraine with their tails between their legs. .

Sorry, your tude is arrogant.

By what right do you or the Hyperpower tell the Ukrainians how much to bleed ??

It was and is grossly unfair for the West to block negotiations.

[sandtown]

About those nukes . . . and negotiations . . .

https://thebulletin.org/2023/02/ther...ogue_020602023

[Osborne Russell]

Untill Pootin is deposed Russia will continue to be a threat to European stability. Meanwhile the attackers must be driven out of Ukraine with their tails between their legs.
A Diskworld's Greebo style of victory. Greebo does not want to kill his adversaries, he wants them alive to remember that they were thourouly beaten.

Yeah

[Peerie Maa]

. . . .

More of the same cowflop. You know full well that the west has not blocked negotiations.

[Peerie Maa]

. . . .

Interesting. From the link

Russia has continued “temporarily” suspending them following its invasion of Ukraine. There is no indication that either party is willing to resume them in the near future. The United States and Russia have also not met under the bilateral consultative commission (BCC)—a forum to discuss compliance with and implementation of New START—since 2021 after Moscow “unilaterally postponed” a commission meeting planned for late 2022. Yet, as I argued elsewhere, the postponement of BCC talks goes against Russia’s own interests as the state of its economy, its military losses, and international isolation following its war in Ukraine leave the country ill-equipped to engage in a potential new arms race.
On January 31, the US State Department confirmed in its annual New START implementation report to Congress that Russia is not in compliance with the verification provisions of the treaty.

So, who is the bigger threat to world peace and stability?

[Peerie Maa]

By what right do you or the Hyperpower tell the Ukrainians how much to bleed ??

Perhqaps you would prefer this?

https://www.icp.org/browse/archive/c.../erich-lessing


https://www.icp.org/browse/archive/c.../erich-lessing

With your love of whataboutism.

[Canoez]

Untill Pootin is deposed Russia will continue to be a threat to European stability. Meanwhile the attackers must be driven out of Ukraine with their tails between their legs.
A Diskworld's Greebo style of victory. Greebo does not want to kill his adversaries, he wants them alive to remember that they were thourouly beaten.

Here's the sad part. There's no guarantee that Putin's successor will be any less of a threat.

[Peerie Maa]

Here's the sad part. There's no guarantee that Putin's successor will be any less of a threat.

Hence the reference to Greebo.

Unless Russians are less intellegent than Germans and Japanese in the decades after WWII.

[heimfried]

The notion that Ukraine is or was ready to negotiate a peace deal with Russia but the U.S.A. and the West would torpedo this is nonsense and part of the Russian propaganda.

It may well be that some political forces in the USA and elsewhere are pleased with the given possibility to reduce the Russian forces and its economy by "just paying".
But it is the blood of the Ukrainians what is shed, their country is devasted in large parts, cities reduced to rubble and so on.

As long as Putin pursues his goal to erase or at least subdue Ukraine, the Ukrainians will fight on.

[sandtown]

You know full well that the west has not blocked negotiations.

dd

How curious, you read one article I Cited, but not the other one . .

Here it is again since you obviously missed it.

(It inlculeds a new source - former Israeli Prime Minister Bennett.)

https://news.antiwar.com/2023/02/05/...m_medium=email

[sandtown]

The notion that Ukraine is or was ready to negotiate a peace deal with Russia but the U.S.A. and the West would torpedo this is nonsense and part of the Russian propaganda. .

So Bennett and the rest are Rooskie Bots ?? Sure.

Y'all write that sort of thing against anyone who questions the war narrative.

[sandtown]

There's no guarantee that Putin's successor will be any less of a threat.

Right, and so few people here seem to be able to grasp that.

In fact, there is considerable evidence that a Putin replacement would be WORSE.

https://www.yahoo.com/video/putin-ev...LaCqEMxfuSL-Wa

[Peerie Maa]

. . .

Your link leads to this

Details: According Ukrainska Pravda sources close to Zelenskyy, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Boris Johnson, who appeared in the capital almost without warning, brought two simple messages.
The first is that Putin is a war criminal, he should be pressured, not negotiated with.
And the second is that even if Ukraine is ready to sign some agreements on guarantees with Putin, they are not.
Johnson’s position was that the collective West, which back in February had suggested Zelenskyy should surrender and flee, now felt that Putin was not really as powerful as they had previously imagined, and that here was a chance to "press him."

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/05/5/7344206/

Details: According Ukrainska Pravda sources close to Zelenskyy, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Boris Johnson, who appeared in the capital almost without warning, brought two simple messages.
The first is that Putin is a war criminal, he should be pressured, not negotiated with.

Which is not new information


And the second is that even if Ukraine is ready to sign some agreements on guarantees with Putin, they are not.
Johnson’s position was that the collective West, which back in February had suggested Zelenskyy should surrender and flee, now felt that Putin was not really as powerful as they had previously imagined, and that here was a chance to "press him."

Which I believe to be a lie. I do not believe that "the west" ever advised that "Zelenskyy should surrender and flee". It is simply not credible that they would.

[heimlaga]

Sorry, your tude is arrogant.

By what right do you or the Hyperpower tell the Ukrainians how much to bleed ??

It was and is grossly unfair for the West to block negotiations.

The problem with that theory is that the west hasn't blocked any negotiations. Before the invasion ago it was Russia refusing to uphold an agreement. After the invasion a year ago Russia demanded that Ukraine would commit to what from a military point of wiew was equal to an unconditional surrender, before Russia would be willing to negotiate. All while declaring that they would not budge from their demand they Ukraine would become a puppet state ruled nut by it's people but by people appointed by Putin&co.
You need to do a fair stretch of imagination when you say that the west blocked negotiations when they helped Ukraine out of that pinch.

By what right do you consider yourself entitled to decide which of us should be allowed to take part in ruling their own democratic countries and which of us should live under brutal oppression by a Russcst puppet? By what right? Pleaste tell me that Sandtown!
I am one of those whom you condemn to Russcist oppression. In which case an outspoken pro democracy person like me is condemned to the execution squad.
I just want you to tell me by what right you Sandtown condemn me to that?

[Canoez]

Is someone *STILL* yammering on without evidence that the notorious "West" has torpedoed Ukrainian/Russian negotiations?

[George Jung]

When all ya gotz is a 'yammer', everything looks like a.....