Ukraine

[heimlaga]

Sandtown.

I suggest you should start following theese pro- Russian though anti war and anti-Putin news sites:
Meduza: https://meduza.io/en
Novaja Gazeta: https://novayagazeta.eu/
Moscow Times: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/

All of them written by good and true Russians who want a strong and independent Russia ruled by it's people living in peace with it's neighbours. Which in turn must mean a Russia without Putin and without a growing empire and without new conquests.
Theese news are mainly made for a Russian audience but as they translate most of their content into English just to show us all there there are decent Russians left.
In practice their editors and publishers all have fled and work from outside Russia and those of their contributors and journalists who figure under their real names have also fled and work from somewhere else.

I know that you are working hard to achieve peace in the world. This is a noble goal if there ever was one.
However when working for a good cause one must be a bit wary as not to be manipulated into working for someone else.
As an example I rekon the American bombings of Dresden was a war crime which should rightfully have been prosecuted while the perpetrators were still alive and could still be put in jail on a life scentence. However this is no reason to start believing in every bit of "news" published in "Der Sturmer" (a nazi propaganda paper) and certainly not a reason to become pro-Hitler only because a crime was perpetrated against Germans. Instead one must find reliable technical evidence and paper trails and eye witness reports independent of the propaganda flood from either side.
War crimes are comitted against the people. Dictators don't care about people. They use the people to gain power and wealth for themselves. As cannon fodder or as propaganda material or to extricate wealth from.

[Nicholas Carey]

If Russia wanted a "buffer zone" it should have been a bit nicer to those in the zone. NATO hasn't encroached on Russia, the new members of NATO have run away from the Russian bear as fast as they could.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again:

if you don't want your neighbors arming themselves to the teeth and making friends with "muscle", perhaps you should stop knocking down the fence and breaking down their front doors.

[dutchpp]

The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, January 25.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...anuary-25-2023

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces may be engaging in limited spoiling attacks across most of the frontline in Ukraine in order to disperse and distract Ukrainian fronts and launch a decisive offensive operation in Luhansk Oblast.
• The Russian military appears to be shifting its focus toward conventional forces deployed to Luhansk Oblast and away from the non-traditional force structure of the Wagner Group and its focus on Bakhmut.
• The Kremlin and Russian milbloggers attempted to downplay the Western provision of tanks to Ukraine, indicating that they likely find these systems threatening to Russian prospects.
• Russian forces claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations near Svatove as Russian forces continued limited ground attacks near Kreminna.
• Ukrainian forces have likely made advances around Kreminna.
• Ukrainian officials acknowledged that Ukrainian forces withdrew from Soledar.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka-Donetsk City area. Russian forces reportedly continued localized offensive operations near Vuhledar.
• Russian forces continued to conduct small-scale ground attacks across the Zaporizhia Oblast front line, likely to attempt to fix Ukrainian forces in Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russian milbloggers are divided over the veracity of Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official Vladimir Rogov’s ongoing, overblown information operation.
• The Kremlin is attempting to downplay new restrictions on crossing the Russian border, likely in an effort to contain panic within Russian society about a likely second mobilization wave.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin may be attempting to conduct another wave of mobilization discreetly out of concern for undermining his support among Russians.

[George.]

So the tanks are probably too few, too diverse, and too high-maintenance to be used in an offensive.

Putting their sudden delivery together with other things I have read and heard, might the tanks be to help defend against an upcoming Russian offensive from Belarus?

[JayInOz]

The Ukrainians seem to be preventing the Russians from actually crossing the border from Belarus. Any big build up of Russian forces above what is already there will be quickly noted. There's been talk of a Russian offensive from Belarus for several months so no doubt plans to counter it will be well advanced.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Stefan Korshak for today:

https://medium.com/@Stefan.Korshak/j...g-fed0d6a0dd77

[Johan R]

Sweden allegedly has over 100 Leopards and Finland over 200. Neither country are in NATO. Maybe they do not believe in the doctrine of "it is better to fight them over there, than fight them here" ?

[JayInOz]

It's been decided. Russia can't have Ukraine. The sooner putin gets that through his ugly little head the sooner it can be over.

[heimlaga]

Sweden allegedly has over 100 Leopards and Finland over 200. Neither country are in NATO. Maybe they do not believe in the doctrine of "it is better to fight them over there, than fight them here" ?

Yet another strong indication that you aren't in Sweden even though you claim to be there. You know just about as much as can be expected from a Russian propagandist and you have an outside perspective on "them".

I am not going to tell you any exact numbers but Finland will send 14 Leopards plus an undisclosed amount of other heavy weapons and equipment. Only the worth of the equipment is disclosed and it is a truely huge amount.
Rekoned to be as much as we can afford to send and be able to reaquire and produce before a Russian invasion if it comes.

The Russcist empire may at one point or another want to open a second front and as Turkey (likely acting upon Russcist request) has now blocked our entry into Nato it is possible that there is a plan of attack being drawn up at Frunze Naberezhnaya in Moscow.
At the moment Russia is using up all their mobiki and equipment in Ukraine so for now we are safe but we must be well prepared when things change.

[Johan R]

Turkey (likely acting upon Russcist request) has now blocked our entry into Nato it is possible that there is a plan of attack being drawn up at Frunze Naberezhnaya in Moscow.
.

Turkey has blocked Swedens attempt to Join NATO, not Finland. Your distortion of facts is relentless.

[Peerie Maa]

Turkey has blocked Swedens attempt to Join NATO

Maybe they do not believe in the doctrine of "it is better to fight them over there, than fight them here" ?

Your own post gives the lie to your own post.

[Johan R]

Y

I am not going to tell you any exact numbers but Finland will send 14 Leopards plus an undisclosed amount of other heavy weapons and equipment. .

You do not need to, word gets around, its called news. Sweden, Norway and Finland open the door to also send Leopard tanks to Ukraine (msn.com)

[Johan R]

Your own post gives the lie to your own post.

What is the English translation?

[Johan R]

What would it take to end this conflict? Germany has 350 Leopards and Spain 347. Training on one type of tank and logistics is in favour of one type, not 6 of one and a dozen of another.

Would a defensive line of 700 tanks stop Russian expansion? Possibly without having to fire a shot, which would be the point of showing overwhelming force. What would it take for Putins military people to say, we can not push through that?

I have concluded that are those who want to stop war at any cost, and those that want to prolong it, because of the cost. If the safety of Europe is supposed to be on the line like a few of you and politicians suggest, then sending less than 50 tanks does not convince me when what they do in practice does not match with the threat they speak of. Are the EU leaders hoping that the gas will come back, is that part of it?

[JayInOz]

Europe is making plans to go into the future without any Russian gas. Putin will have to fund his glorious reuniting of the soviet union in another way.

[George.]

Does the R stand for Rusbot?

[Johan R]

Europe is making plans to go into the future without any Russian gas. Putin will have to fund his glorious reuniting of the soviet union in another way.

Making plans is all well and good, but there is a global demand on LNG and the shortfall to provide the EU is not there, and would take 3-5 years to come online. Europe has survived THIS winter, what about the 3-5?

[Osborne Russell]

Making plans is all well and good, but there is a global demand on LNG and the shortfall to provide the EU is not there, and would take 3-5 years to come online. Europe has survived THIS winter, what about the 3-5?

What about it, Russ boy? You have no principle you are willing to state; only the power to coerce. Pitiful.

I got your principle right here: F Holy Mother Russia.

Oops I fed the troll . . . . . . . . . . . . .again

If only to say: we will crush you. You're just the latest entry on the list of those we have crushed, and will go on crushing. Flat. Rolled out to 3 mil and baking in the sun til it crackles and is blown into infinity by the wind.

[Osborne Russell]

"Buffer state" is not a thing apart from "state".

Consent of the governed is the exclusive basis of legitmacy of all states, barf up all your history, then shove it.

Would you impose a buffer state? By what right? F what Russia wants, and F what you think will avoid the issue.

OK, you're "practical", except, you're not. It's been tried; it failed -- apart from being morally wrong.

Consent of the governed is the exclusive basis of legitmacy of all states.

Because states protect the people that live in them, do you really not understand? Ask your questions, I'll answer them.

[LeeG]

Jesus Osborne the cost of gas in Europe is a big problem. Your bloodlust could be dialed back a bit.

[Canoez]

Jesus Osborne the cost of gas in Europe is a big problem. Your bloodlust could be dialed back a bit.

Are you talking natural gas, Lee, or motor fuels? Petrol and Diesel? If you're talking natural gas, this warmer winter has resulted in significant price drop:

gas.jpg

[Peerie Maa]

What is the English translation?

Your second post proves that your first post is misinformation. Similar to Pootin's "Training exercises".

It would seem that you are so keen to obfuscate and mislead that you cannot be bothered to make consistent posts.
Either that or you should lay off the vodka.

[Osborne Russell]

Jesus Osborne the cost of gas in Europe is a big problem. Your bloodlust could be dialed back a bit.

They know how to deal -- famine, plague, Hundred Years War. The Mongols. Back then -- many times -- they would have liked another log for the fire, another pig to slaughter. They did without, and here we are.

Long live the rights of man. "Killing is necessary" is not "bloodlust". It's the will to live -- in freedom.

[LeeG]

Are you talking natural gas, Lee, or motor fuels? Petrol and Diesel? If you're talking natural gas, this warmer winter has resulted in significant price drop:

gas.jpg

dang I am really stuck on old news, thx. I thought NG and electricity were at high levels. Methinks more than a one yr chart is needed.

[TomF]

At this point, I'm not at all sure that a display of overwhelming force in Ukraine - like a formation of 700 tanks - would end Russia's aggression. Exactly because the tanks would be present only to create an impenetrable ground defense against Russian personnel advancement and occupation, and would not be used as the tip of the spear for an invasion force of Russia itself.

Putin's well aware that for all of the Kremlin's propaganda to the contrary, the Western Alliance is not interested at all in claiming territory within Russia, expanding Ukraine's borders (beyond, of course, reclaiming Crimea), etc. That means that the overwhelming Ukraine and allied force on Ukrainian territory presents no threat, say, to Moscow, or Petersburg. No threat to Russia's metropolitan populations.

Russia is following the tactics (perhaps amounting to strategy) they've followed in every war they've undertaken since the fall of the Soviet Union, waged against what the Kremlin views as rebellious provinces. They punish the rebellious provinces for their insolence - by smashing. The attacks on civilian targets in Kyiv are little different from the attempt to raze Mariupol to rubble, and the similar targeting of towns and cities now which Ukraine has retaken. Or for that matter, what they did to Grozny. Russia's objective is to inflict punishment, believing with Machiavelli that "It is better to be feared than loved."

I think that we'll see the flavor of the war change again with the strengthening of Ukraine's heavy weaponry - to become even more intentionally destructive of Ukraine's cities, cultural sites, infrastructure, etc. The Russian long retreat will be oriented anymore towards taking and holding territory, as had allegedly been the original objectives - but towards making Ukraine uninhabitable. And Putin is gambling (probably correctly) that the West will not continue to support Ukraine's military capacity should Ukraine inflict similar injury on Russian populations and cities even as a deterrent. Because the Western Alliance assumes - with some cause - that the Kremlin will indeed escalate into using nuclear weaponry if they experience a credible threat to the Russian homeland itself.

I think that the American (note - not "Western Alliance") response needs to be twofold. First, it's good to supply these tanks, and by doing so enable every other Alliance member to do the same in lockstep. But second, America needs to say again - publicly, and through private back channels - that there's a line beyond which Russian punishment of Ukraine's non-military targets will not be tolerated. And what Russia risks is the overwhelming use of American non-nuclear power to (as Blinken put it once) entirely eliminate the Russian military capacity in the Black Sea region. All of the equipment, troop formations, ships etc. currently pounding Ukraine into gravel can be, and would be, destroyed.

That obviously has its own risks. Point is, we're experiencing them already, and NOT drawing that line has even greater risks.

[Canoez]

dang I am really stuck on old news, thx. I thought NG and electricity were at high levels.

A few things have happened. LNG is being imported to blunt the pressure that Russia could apply as well as war funding from petro dollars. Germany has rushed the build of infrastructure to be able to handle the source change. Natural gas stocks in storage are high, and demand is low with a warmer than usual winter in Europe.

[Osborne Russell]

That obviously has its own risks. Point is, we're experiencing them already, and NOT drawing that line has even greater risks.

On to Moscow. When they quit is up to them. We endeavor to persuade them that it's all unnecessary. Let them see the light or be annihilated; it's the only way it can stop, surely you can see that.

[LeeG]

On to Moscow. When they quit is up to them. We endeavor to persuade them that it's all unnecessary. Let them see the light or be annihilated; it's the only way it can stop, surely you can see that.

Yeah, your bloodlust.

[Osborne Russell]

Yeah, your bloodlust.

Is "Holy Mother Russia" not bloodlust?

[TomF]

It will stop when Putin's overthrown, or alternatively offs himself. IMO the thing most likely at this point to encourage such is the Western Alliance delivering that impenetrable bristling wall of tanks, with American forces positioned and on high alert, prepared to blow the entirety of the Black Sea fleet and the Russian heavy munitions capacity west of Moscow somewhere towards Mars.

The highest ranking members of the Kremlin, while fully beholden to Putin, will not ALL commit ritual suicide for his mistaken strategic action. And I think they're not really interested in nuclear war.

[Osborne Russell]

It will stop when Putin's overthrown, or alternatively offs himself. IMO the thing most likely at this point to encourage such is the Western Alliance delivering that impenetrable bristling wall of tanks, with American forces positioned and on high alert, prepared to blow the entirety of the Black Sea fleet and the Russian heavy munitions capacity west of Moscow somewhere towards Mars.

To within arm's reach of the eastern border of Donbass with Russia. You know, Ukraine, the nation.

Putin feels himself isolated, threatened by the west. He's right.

[Canoez]

It will stop when Putin's overthrown, or alternatively offs himself. IMO the thing most likely at this point to encourage such is the Western Alliance delivering that impenetrable bristling wall of tanks, with American forces positioned and on high alert, prepared to blow the entirety of the Black Sea fleet and the Russian heavy munitions capacity west of Moscow somewhere towards Mars.

The highest ranking members of the Kremlin, while fully beholden to Putin, will not ALL commit ritual suicide for his mistaken strategic action. And I think they're not really interested in nuclear war.

Considering the state of Russia's conventional weapons - large numbers of obsolete or non-deployable heavy weapons, it makes you ask the question about the readiness of their nuclear stocks.

Moreover, I think everyone realizes that the deployment of nuclear weapons by Russia would yield a horrific response from the rest of the world - even Russia's allies.

[TomF]

Oh yes. The Western Alliance's objective is to support a legitimate nation state's territorial integrity. The war in Ukraine will not be over until all Ukrainian territory defined at the breakup of the Soviet Union is under Ukrainian control.

What Putin fears is beyond that - of the Western Alliance doing what he's been trying to do - one way or another creating a "safe buffer" zone inside the other's territory, from which the enemy cannot mount an attack against one's own homeland. Putin first attempted that through occupation, and is now settling for a barrier of smoking wasteland. He fears that the West will want the same no-man's-land security region created, but on the Russian side of the border as a buffer for Ukraine. Because it would, actually, be logical militarily. Not unlike the demilitarized zone in Korea.

The West doesn't want that. At least, not as a first option. What Putin's not understanding (but perhaps other Kremlin officials will) is that the best way to ensure that a strip of Western Russia becomes a demilitarized zone for decades is to keep on smashing Ukraine.

[TomF]

Considering the state of Russia's conventional weapons - large numbers of obsolete or non-deployable heavy weapons, it makes you ask the question about the readiness of their nuclear stocks.

Moreover, I think everyone realizes that the deployment of nuclear weapons by Russia would yield a horrific response from the rest of the world - even Russia's allies.

I agree. But if only 15% of Russia's nuclear weapons designed for near or middle range use are capable of exploding - on target or not - it will be catastrophic enough. Explode one, or even a handful, and it's essentially "suicide by cop."

Except that a lot of "cops" will die too.

[Johan R]

dang I am really stuck on old news, thx. I thought NG and electricity were at high levels.

They are. My energy bill was almost 4x at peak, my last 3x, and my energy is supposed to come from wind/solar and hydro....so why the big bills? It costs 110 euros to fill the car, it used to cost 70 euros. For people on fixed income, these inflated prices can only be tolerated for so long. Its not sustainable for families already struggling on low incomes. Its not all gold and high living here, or many other countries in the EU.

There is a global shortage of LNG, EU has managed to get some at inflated prices to ensure survival through the winter, which has not been that bad. And Chevron announced a $75 billion share buy-back.