Ukraine

[Osborne Russell]

To ask Sandtown and HRDavies to put non-Ukraine related stuff on other threads could not work. They have nothing else. They are gripped by an ideology of anti-westernism, such that everything they find to say about The West's record is pertinent to Ukraine. They'd have to renounce the beliefs that brought them here; their understanding of history if not their entire world view.

Example:

"Do you mean that we are not allowed to show how the US media cheered loudly when the US attacked the power grid in Serbia and later Iraq ? "

These things are only loosely connected to each other, let alone to Ukraine. But the argument is, they are all one in the sense of being identical effects brought about by the same cause; treating them as separate cases cannot be justified. Serbia and Iraq are the same as Ukraine because of the loud cheering of the US media. That means Serbia, Iraq, Ukraine are the same as the allied victory in WW2 because no one was allowed to show how the US media cheered loudly when the US attacked the power grid.

[Rumars]

I don't doubt that Russia is planning another invasion. I just doubt their ability to succeed.
/Erik

There are two important things in that article you linked, first is how many troops russia can support on the ground. If 150 000 is indeed their limit, they can't take ukraine, they will need at least triple the manpower on the ground. Second is their ability to mass manufacture or buy high precision munitions (drones, rockets), without them they can't properly support the troops.

They have to solve at least one of those by summer, wich is the time I estimate it will take the western industry to catch up and flood ukraine with whatever equipment the politicians allow.

The real question is how much the russian population is prepared to allow their politicians to do. One thing that can't be changed even by the best tech is the size of russia, if they agree to full mobilization and war economy there is no doubt they can defeat ukraine.

[Landrith]

We all know that according to the Western media, Russia cannot succeed. The problem is that some little factoids creep through that cause me to doubt the Western media information. That there are casualties of Poles in the Ukraine War shocks me. Let alone the assertion that more than 5000 are casualties or that 1000 died.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIIM043x_FI And the video by the Fifth Column guy sounds reasonable, Russia runs out of ammo before Ukraine's allies do. https://www.youtube.com/@BeauoftheFifthColumn/videos But I then hear Germany is already running low. I also know Sunflower and Parsons KS has been shut down for a long long time, and Lake City, MO isn't cranking out what it used to. This is not the Korean War or Cold War era in the US. We don't have small arms ammunition or artillery shells being mass produced for an intensive war.

[epoxyboy]

This is interesting. Looks like russia is jamming GPS around its own cities, presumably to try and disrupt drone operations.
https://www.wired.com/story/gps-jamm...ussia-ukraine/

Interactive GPS Jam map here
https://gpsjam.org/?lat=41.04867&lon...ate=2022-12-14

Pete

[L.W. Baxter]

... We don't have small arms ammunition or artillery shells being mass produced for an intensive war.

would be interesting to have an accurate figure for private stockpiles of 5.56mm nato and 9mm luger in the u.s.a.

[Gerarddm]

The Very Serious People of the DC Blob are using Ukrainian blood to weaken Russia . . .

Such a RussBot statement ( and no, I don't mean Russell Wilson ).

" Using " Ukrainian blood?

a) That's where the war is, thanks to Russia's illegal and immoral invasion.
b) The Ukrainians asked for our materiel help, and we are giving it.
c) There are no NATO troops fighting because we are trying to avoid a full scale WWIII.
d) The object is to weaken PUTIN, not Russia per se, but if the two can't be de-coupled, so be it.

[Landrith]

would be interesting to have an accurate figure for private stockpiles of 5.56mm nato and 9mm luger in the u.s.a.

The real tragedy was that Ukrainian citizens didn't have a 2nd Amendment and had to train with plywood AKs.

[WX]

You were so upset that your country is buying a few nukular subs which will be operated for you by the US Navy, which as you noted has been involved in bombing and invading other countries for a very long time now, all at your cost.

I guess that democracy thing doesn't work out all that good after all, eh ?

Non relevant topic, feel free to start a new thread, and I will discuss it there.

[Decourcy]

would be interesting to have an accurate figure for private stockpiles of 5.56mm nato and 9mm luger in the u.s.a.

Don’t know about there, but I know of a guy here that has a 75000 round stockpile of 5.56. That’s larger than most, but 10-20000 is pretty common.

[Decourcy]

The real tragedy was that Ukrainian citizens didn't have a 2nd Amendment and had to train with plywood AKs.

Not quite accurate.

[WX]

Don’t know about there, but I know of a guy here that has a 75000 round stockpile of 5.56. That’s larger than most, but 10-20000 is pretty common.

Truly bizarre.

[Decourcy]

Truly bizarre.

Not really. 1000 round range day isn’t unusual. And it’s way cheaper to buy in bulk when available

[Canoez]

Don’t know about there, but I know of a guy here that has a 75000 round stockpile of 5.56. That’s larger than most, but 10-20000 is pretty common.

75 crates of 5.56? That's nuts. At about $425/1000 rounds, that's nearly $32,000 worth of ammo.

[C. Ross]

Not really. 1000 round range day isn’t unusual. And it’s way cheaper to buy in bulk when available

OK, we’ve had enough thread drift, but, Wow! My dad was a home loader and precision shooter. We’d help him fill rounds and 50 was a long day of shooting. 1000!!

[Vadim 68]

The real question is how much the russian population is prepared to allow their politicians to do. One thing that can't be changed even by the best tech is the size of russia, if they agree to full mobilization and war economy there is no doubt they can defeat ukraine.

Correct. A recent poll by Russian Field, has 70% in favour of a peace deal. The powers that be will have to balance that big increase in opposition to prolonging the conflict, going forward.


Putins worst nightmare would be see a popular uprising just as he witnessed in East Germany; what is unknown, is what his reaction to one might be.

[Decourcy]

75 crates of 5.56? That's nuts. At about $425/1000 rounds, that's nearly $32,000 worth of ammo.

Isnt/wasn’t always that pricy. But yes, it’s a lot of money

[Decourcy]

OK, we’ve had enough thread drift, but, Wow! My dad was a home loader and precision shooter. We’d help him fill rounds and 50 was a long day of shooting. 1000!!

I’ll shoot less than 10 of .338 or 9.3, maybe 20 7mm mag, and maybe 2-300 5.56 at a sitting. 5.56/.223 is the equivalent of the .22LR I used to shoot 500 of at a sitting.

But get 5 friends together, bring 5 guns in 5.56, and do the math on a short day of shooting. Doesn’t take long to add up.

[Decourcy]

The point I think Baxter was making though is that there is a lot of ammo in private hands and not only are the local manufacturers fully capable of keeping up to the amount of ammo expended by citizens in North America (and therefore fully capable of supplying the Ukrainian army), but that if asked, many of us would pony up at least some of our supplies.

[skuthorp]

I heard one assesment that given the current repurposing of other equipment to strike airfields and fuel depots inside Russia, Ukraine could hit Moscow at present. And that it should not.

Meantime Ukraine says it shot down 60 of 76 missiles fired by Russia yesterday. An apartment block was hit in Zelenski's home town.

[Landrith]

I heard one assesment that given the current repurposing of other equipment to strike airfields and fuel depots inside Russia, Ukraine could hit Moscow at present. And that it should not.

Meantime Ukraine says it shot down 60 of 76 missiles fired by Russia yesterday. An apartment block was hit in Zelenski's home town.

Those assessments acknowledge that Ukraine has the International Law right to do so, and leave unsaid that even if Ukraine and Russia were not not at war, a country could destroy a facility from which it was attacked from. That is the danger of Ukraine operating from adjoining nations in the West.

Here in the Bilge, Ukraine did not suffer large casualties of prime military aged men in the first year of the war, but I hear recruiting in Europe for the Ukraine Army has been high, and that it is taking place there because it is legal to do so in NATO countries and not so legal elsewhere. This coupled with the admitted training of Ukrainian forces in Europe, and the assembly and staging areas for entry into Ukraine of forces under arms and the potential for a broadening conflict is quite high. That is why so many have counseled Ukraine to conduct the war within its borders.

I disagreed comparing it to the restrictions the USA placed on its Air Force to protect Russian advisors and Soviet Satellite arms supply ships in Vietnam, and about a week later the US announced it would no longer restrict Ukraine from attacking in Russia. But, I think the ancient repurposed Recce cruise missiles do not have a meaningful payload. It is also hard to believe that they can be programmed with their original guidance system to get the terrain flying they exhibited. It smells more like active remote piloting from an airborne command center. So hitting targets other than those Russian bases that had just participated in attacks within Ukraine could be more dangerous for the US and NATO.

[Garret]

would be interesting to have an accurate figure for private stockpiles of 5.56mm nato and 9mm luger in the u.s.a.

Amongst many "enthusiasts" there are plenty of folks with a quarter of a million rounds & way more with 100K. Decourcey is not off at all.

I was outside a Walmart in NH just before opening ~2 years ago & over heard a conversation: "Wish they'd let me buy more than 10 boxes of .223" "Yeah, I hear ya. I've got 250K & would like to have over 300k". You're a bit ahead of me, but I'm doing my best to catch up. Really want more .308 - I only have 70K of those".

[skuthorp]

Somewhere north in this thread there was a quoted comment expecting war to be formalised between Russia and NATO, rather than the proxy phoney war that exists, and is slowly ramping up, now.

[epoxyboy]

...It is also hard to believe that they can be programmed with their original guidance system to get the terrain flying they exhibited. It smells more like active remote piloting from an airborne command center. So hitting targets other than those Russian bases that had just participated in attacks within Ukraine could be more dangerous for the US and NATO.

There are any number of open source flight controllers available to the hobbyist market, that will take a feed from wide variety of GPS receivers on one end, and output servo control signals out the other. They can be preprogrammed to fly point to point, or as many waypoints in three dimensions as you want.
Ditching the 1960's guidance system and flight controls, and throwing one of these in, is probably a sub $1000 exercise, and achievable by any modestly technically competent individual.

Edit
https://hobbystation.co.nz/flight-controllers-1/
There you go, for $150 NZ, you have a fairly high end controller, and a GPS/GLONASS receiver. Add some big servos and a small battery pack, done, dead easy.

You can even get the source code, if you need to ahem "adapt" things.
https://github.com/ArduPilot/ardupilot

Pete

[Rumars]

Guys, small arms and ammo are not the problem for either side, the high tech stuff is. Mothballing a government owned munition or small arms factory is really simple, and has actually been done in the recent past, complete with reactivation a decade or two later. Where do you think the US has bought all the soviet type weapons and ammo they supplied to various allies in the last years?

Now the complex stuff is a different thing, first of all because it's not about a single factory, it's a series of subcontractors from a lot of industries, and you can't mothball them all, or force them to keep production lines in storage. To give you a simple example, Poland produced T-72's, not only for themselfs but also for export, plus a few modernization packages. So why isn't Poland building new tanks for Ukraine? Mainly because even if they can find the molds to cast the chassis, the engine factory has probably moved on a long time ago, as did the gearbox factory, etc. It takes time and it's not simple to set up production again. It's actually cheaper and faster to take a blown up wreck from the frontline and give it a makeover.

[Landrith]

There are any number of open source flight controllers available to the hobbyist market, that will take a feed from wide variety of GPS receivers on one end, and output servo control signals out the other. They can be preprogrammed to fly point to point, or as many waypoints in three dimensions as you want.
Ditching the 1960's guidance system and flight controls, and throwing one of these in, is probably a sub $1000 exercise, and achievable by any modestly technically competent individual.

Edit
https://hobbystation.co.nz/flight-controllers-1/
There you go, for $150 NZ, you have a fairly high end controller, and a GPS/GLONASS receiver. Add some big servos and a small battery pack, done, dead easy.


Pete

I recognize that the processor and things would have been discarded and much weight saved. I doubt the servos or what was used to move the control surfaces could have been swapped out. To me, it seems that the ability to get so far in Russia, presumably without detection suggests terrain flying at lower altitudes than commercial data for the geography could have supported. Also, GPS by design does not provide accurate enough location data to guide a system through preprogrammed routes. With no technical basis to make the the claim, I say the repurposed Soviet cruise missile had control through an airborne AWACS platform.

[Rumars]

Here in the Bilge, Ukraine did not suffer large casualties of prime military aged men in the first year of the war, but I hear recruiting in Europe for the Ukraine Army has been high, and that it is taking place there because it is legal to do so in NATO countries and not so legal elsewhere. This coupled with the admitted training of Ukrainian forces in Europe, and the assembly and staging areas for entry into Ukraine of forces under arms and the potential for a broadening conflict is quite high. That is why so many have counseled Ukraine to conduct the war within its borders.

Of course Ukraine suffered large casualties, but, unlike Russia, Ukraine is under full mobilization orders. While not everyone really wants to fight, the morale is still high and you don't see widespread draft dodging and the borders are no overrun by fighting age males. I won't speculate about how many people they have under arms and what their reserves are, but mobilizing 300 000 russians is not going to cut it.

As for recruiting in Europe, a lot of them are actually ukrainians, and as long as your citizenship doesn't forbid you to fight for another country, anyone is free to do as he chooses. This "foreign legion" thing has a long tradition in Europe, straight from the middle ages. That's why the thing you see hanging from peoples necks is called a cravat and not a scarf.

The real reason for not staging widespread attacks on russian soil is to not anger the russian population. Ukraine doesn't actually need rockets to reach Moscow, all they need is a few saboteurs and the lights go out just like in Kiew. But that's not a good move, so for now they stick to operational targets closer to home.

[ERGR]

Now the complex stuff is a different thing, first of all because it's not about a single factory, it's a series of subcontractors from a lot of industries

This actually also creates more problems for Russia. Some parts of their supply chains are outside Russia, and Russia is sanctioned. If Sweden wants to produce more Gripens, CV90s, NLAWs, howitzers, mortar vehicles or Excaliburs we have the supply chains up and running (involving many western countries). The same goes for all western arms manufacturers. We're not dependent on Russia. Expanding existing supply chains is easier than than creating them in-country from scratch.
The advanced stuff takes years from order to delivery also with the supply chains working, plus lots of money. However, we can send our advanced stuff to Ukraine and get replacements delivered before Russia can. It's "just" a question of accepting the cost and to handle the increased security risk in the interim period.
/Erik

[L.W. Baxter]

The point I think Baxter was making though is that there is a lot of ammo in private hands and not only are the local manufacturers fully capable of keeping up to the amount of ammo expended by citizens in North America (and therefore fully capable of supplying the Ukrainian army), but that if asked, many of us would pony up at least some of our supplies.

yes, although i don't really expect anything like u.s. civilians contributing to ukraine from their stashes, which stashes as some of us know, are gobsmacking humungous.

but, as rumars notes, small arms rounds are probably the easiest thing to ramp up anyway. now, how many tow missile launchers and rounds in private hands in the u.s......

[Rumars]

I recognize that the processor and things would have been discarded and much weight saved. I doubt the servos or what was used to move the control surfaces could have been swapped out. To me, it seems that the ability to get so far in Russia, presumably without detection suggests terrain flying at lower altitudes than commercial data for the geography could have supported. Also, GPS by design does not provide accurate enough location data to guide a system through preprogrammed routes. With no technical basis to make the the claim, I say the repurposed Soviet cruise missile had control through an airborne AWACS platform.

It's entirely possible that they were flown in manually, but it's not the only option. Inertial guiding systems are old news, and today the needed electronics are over the counter (every smartphone has them). Ukraine has good engineers in the needed fields, plus there is a lot of international talent willing to work for free (doesn't have anything to do with altruism, it's a big boost for your next DARPA grant application if you can prove your things actually works in real conditions).
As for commercial geographical data, they don't need it. All (and I really mean every square inch of land) of the Warsaw Pact territory was manually surveyed a long time ago in preparation for WW3, plus the ukrainians can request military satellite data.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Stefan Korshak’s column for today:

https://medium.com/@Stefan.Korshak/d...s-a48c464c87bf

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

I love this bit - I am a cat person not a dog person:

https://youtube.com/shorts/fqH_BgdNb30?feature=share

Puss is called to get inside the dug out because they are being fired on, but makes it clear that he’s not in a hurry!

[epoxyboy]

I recognize that the processor and things would have been discarded and much weight saved. I doubt the servos or what was used to move the control surfaces could have been swapped out. To me, it seems that the ability to get so far in Russia, presumably without detection suggests terrain flying at lower altitudes than commercial data for the geography could have supported. Also, GPS by design does not provide accurate enough location data to guide a system through preprogrammed routes. With no technical basis to make the the claim, I say the repurposed Soviet cruise missile had control through an airborne AWACS platform.

GPS is good enough to me tell me which side of the road I'm on, or which end of my lounge I'm standing at. Nominally it's accurate to about two meters, way more than good enough to fly a well plotted nap of the earth route.
As for access to accurate topographical data, I seriously doubt if that's a problem in this day and age.
If you are stationary for long enough, your GPS plotted position will bounce around a bit, the rms error is about 200 metres IIRC, but if you're moving that all cancels out in the filtering - the math is way over my head!
GPS for non military use was degraded until Bill Clinton's administration, when "selective availability" got turned off. Prior to that, it wouldn't have been fit for this purpose.

Pete

[robm]

I love this bit - I am a cat person not a dog person:

https://youtube.com/shorts/fqH_BgdNb30?feature=share

Puss is called to get inside the dug out because they are being fired on, but makes it clear that he’s not in a hurry!

I didn't understand anything he said - until he started talking to the cat! I use the same noises to call my furry little friend.

[Garret]

I love this bit - I am a cat person not a dog person:

https://youtube.com/shorts/fqH_BgdNb30?feature=share

Puss is called to get inside the dug out because they are being fired on, but makes it clear that he’s not in a hurry!

Just enough to show "you're not the boss of me!" IOW - a cat

[Landrith]

The Russians are still the ones claiming it was by modifying the Soviet era missile:

"Kots: Kyiv upgraded Tu-141 "Swift" in Kharkov for attacks on Russian airfields
Author: Gulnaz Astakhova

Kyiv upgraded Tu-141 "Swift" in Kharkov for attacks on Russian airfields
Author: Gulnaz Astakhova

Photo: wikipedia.org / Fernando.tassone / CC BY-SA 4.0
December 12, 2022, 11:31 - Public News Service - OSN
Kyiv has modernized the Soviet Tu-141 Strizh drones for long-range strikes, including on the territory of the Russian Federation. This was stated by war correspondent Alexander Kots.

According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, the attacks on Russian airfields were carried out by Soviet-made jet unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), SM-NEWS reports .

The journalist believes that we are talking about the Swifts, developed in the 1970s. They are in service only with Ukraine , said the military commander.

He clarified that Russia “until recently” used them as air targets for combat training launches of air defense systems or combat training missions for fighter jets.

The Russian Federation no longer has such drones, the speaker emphasized. “It is known that after 2014, Ukraine modernized these devices by including a combat charge in them,” he explained.

At the same time, Kots wondered how exactly these UAVs flew so far across the territory of the Russian Federation. He drew attention to the fact that in the 70s the USSR did not have Stealth technology.

The military commissar doubted that the drones were equipped with this technology in Kharkov. “Somehow we could shoot them down in 2014, and here it flew from the Dnieper over Russian territory for about 660 kilometers,” the media representative added.

Earlier, the Public News Service reported that the Russian military had established control in the Krasno-Limansky direction , at the Kremennaya-Makeyevka line."

https://www-osnmedia-ru.translate.go..._x_tr_pto=wapp