What the West treats as a harbinger of Russia's defeat is for the Kremlin irrelevant
In the chaos of war, one of the greatest phantasmagorias dies unnoticed. It assumed that in the modern world cultures would merge until Russia, China or Saudi Arabia begin to stick to the rules that to Europe and the USA are obvious.
Noting deep cultural differences is relatively easy. You can see them every day and at every step, you just have to look carefully. However, this week turned out to be exceptionally rich in their examples.
Macron and Scholz
Take, for example, the new gestures that Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz made towards the Kremlin. During the conversation on TV TF1, the French president announced that it is time to think: "how to give security guarantees to Russia on the day of its return to the negotiating table." At the same time, during the discussion at the Berlin Security Conference, the German chancellor spoke about the possibility of not only negotiating with Russia, but also rebuilding the European order together with Russia - if only the Kremlin renounces aggression. We can go back to the peace order that worked and secure it again, ” Scholz said.
The leaders of the two most important countries of the EU still seem to believe that Vladimir Putin and the Russian elites surrounding him will deal with what they themselves have procured, according to Western rules. Those that determined the end of France's bloody war with rebellious Algeria, forced Britain to accept the disintegration of its empire and persuaded the United States to close its military presence in Vietnam and Afghanistan. In all these cases, when the military effort dragged on and brought more and more losses, the leaders of the Western democracies began to calculate. Their countries were losing young citizens, tarnished their image, taxpayers took on the financial costs, the economy fared worse, and war-weary societies expressed their opposition more and more sharply. The list of losses was growing, and it was beginning to look as if even a military triumph could not make up for them. Instead of a Pyrrhic victory, the choice was to accept defeat and then retreat, trying to negotiate terms of peace with the enemy.
Such rules have long been adhered to by the West, and Macron and Scholz regularly open the door for Putin to use them. In response, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov regularly demonstrates how deeply his boss despises these rules and Western politicians.
Cultural difference
This is where the cultural difference begins, which the Western world finds difficult to read, still unable to believe that Russia has not become westernized over the last 30 years, and that it will never become like it. To believe it would mean accepting the painful truth. The satraps ruling the Kremlin and his entourage, the losses incurred by the country are of medium concern. Regardless of whether they are: image, economic, financial or civilizational. And the least important of all are the human losses.
During the invasion of Ukraine, which lasted less than a year, the Russian army exhausted a large part of its stocks of equipment and ammunition. The state budget is also cracking at the seams. This is best evidenced by the cuts in spending on everything except the army, and the largest one-day debt issued in Russia's history at the end of November ($13.6 billion). In addition, the country's income begins to hang on only one thread, which is the sale of oil. At current prices, it will bring the Kremlin about $100 billion next year. However, there are more and more indications that the prices of petroleum products will fall. In the Western world, these factors, and especially the fact that almost 100,000 people have already died on the front, would make you think about negotiations. In the Russian reality, people think about how to use human resources more effectively - because they are one of their last significant assets.
Number of dead? It doesn't matter to the Kremlin
For those in power at the Kremlin, the number of dead turns out to be of little importance. Just like during both world wars and all previous ones, fought since the beginning of the existence of the Russian state. If it is to bring victory, 100 000 or millions dying is still just a statistic. Putin and his subordinates are ready for such a sacrifice of their own people. What matters is that at the end of the day, and in all neighbouring countries, there is a belief that the old empire still has enough strength to break the neck of the enemy. Just as it once defeated: Sweden, Turkey, the Third Reich. Costs do not play a role, because what binds this empire together are not ideas or interests, but fear. Thanks to it, the respect of neighbours is retained and the sphere of imperial influence is preserved.
There are many subtleties in these differences. The first one: the entire West, including Poland is shocked and at the same time amused by the terrible quality of equipment received by mobilised reservists, often sent straight to the front. This is treated as a harbinger of a quick defeat for Russia. However, from the Kremlin's point of view, this is not a significant problem. Military resources have been severely weaned and are too valuable to supply mobiks, especially in winter. Most of them die within a few days and if they were equipped with good quality equipment, it would be lost forever. They are just a heap of corpses intended to torment Ukrainian defenders with them. If two million mobiks die, it's still just statistics for the rulers of Russia, while in the West it would be a hard to imagine horrific crime against their own nation.
Thus, after three decades of close cooperation with the Western world, the Russian state, when tested, behaves according to the exact same pattern that was implemented during the wars under both Tsar Nicholas II and Stalin. When there are no bullets, the enemy is covered with the bodies of the inhabitants of the empire. So much for the civilisational rapprochement, which until recently was considered inevitable.