Ukraine

[epoxyboy]

Oh Bull Pucky. When I post the views of war skeptics, whose numbers are legion . . . I get personal attacks and nasty name-calling.

What is happening here is a full-on assault on anyone who disagrees in the slightest with the dominant narrative.

I got the same crap when I protested against Vietnam, Central America, Afghanistan, Iraq and more.

I was right in each and every one of those cases, and y'all were wrong.
Maybe you don't want a civil exchange of views because in your hearts you know you are wrong.

In your view, the west should pull it's support, Ukraine should capitulate, and the war can stop. Have I got that right?
And the basis for that being "right", where continuing to fight for a sovereign Ukraine is "wrong", is an end to the killing. Yes? No, maybe?

What about Putin's stated aims in Ukraine - effectively the erasure of all things unique to the country?

Do you think we should be concerned about what might happen under this scenario, to anyone who took up arms against Russia? That's a mere million people give or take. Gulag, anyone?

How is Russia going to rebuild Ukraine, the infrastructure, economy and people? It can barely look after itself.

What about Russia's newly expanded border with a bunch of (now) very twitchy NATO countries?

You keep telling us we're wrong, but there doesn't seem to be any attempt on your part to examine what the aftermath of "negotiation" looks like. Given Russia's past history, I'm far from convinced.

If you want to exchange views, you actually have to make an honest attempt to answer these sorts of questions. That's not a bunch of random C&Ps, deflection, or enough bull pucky to fertilise LW Baxter's farm - and definitely not that sanctimonius attitude.


Pete

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

No, but a MILLION people did, and it didn't change a thing.

I realise as an ex serviceman you will have deep guilt and PTSD from what you did in the name of. My plea to you is to step back a little and allow other posters fill this thread with news and comment about Ukraine. Most of the last 50 pages are all about you and your incessant need to fight government sponsored violence. If you want to continue in this vane, you could start your own thread. This one is about the Ukraine invasion by Russia and all issues directly related to that.

Please try to show a little intelligence, respect and decorum for other readers and contributers here.

+1.

Exactly what Martin says here.

I’ll just add that sandtown’s posts to this thread are counter productive; by spraying his stuff all over this thread he makes us put him on « ignore » in order to read the reports that are posted here, so his posts with his ideas actually get read less than they would be if he started his own thread.

[beernd]

There is a lot going on in the tanker market just now…

Please keep us informed on that.

[Osborne Russell]

It may not have had much of an impact, but I take a certain pride in having marched against every US war starting with Vietnam.

I think it is my patriotic duty to do that sort of thing.

Of course it is. But it's a duty, not a contest. Making it a contest doesn't further your object, and so cannot fulfill your duty.

Did you ever march against the UK gummint's insane, imperialistic and downright wicked participation in the Afghanistan or Iraq wars ??

Whatever, that's in the past, like the Spartan enslavement of the Messenians. Being alive now means confronting what is happening now, which is the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Your arguments from the past paint you into a corner. You want negotiations, but what is there to negotiate?

How's this: for every 10 treaties with Native Americans breached by us whites, Russia gets to invade and annex one country, outside NATO. Would that make things right?

[sandtown]

+1. I’ll just add that sandtown’s posts to this thread are counter productive; by spraying his stuff all over this thread he makes us put him on « ignore » in order to read the reports that are posted here,.

Somebody really should start a thread on the vicious war in Yemen.

Why the US national security Blob chooses to follow the Saudi and Israel lead in that part of the world is beyond my ken - maybe even beyond my barbie.

It has been one disaster after another for decades now.

And a tip of the hat to Bernie for pushing a War Powers Act vote.

[birlinn]

Somebody really should start a thread on the vicious war in Yemen.

Why the US national security Blob chooses to follow the Saudi and Israel lead in that part of the world is beyond my ken - maybe even beyond my barbie.

It has been one disaster after another for decades now.

And a tip of the hat to Bernie for pushing a War Powers Act vote.

So start a thread!

Awkward one, that- looks like you have to support a side backed by the Saudis or by Iran.

[johnw]

Of course it is. But it's a duty, not a contest. Making it a contest doesn't further your object, and so cannot fulfill your duty.



Whatever, that's in the past, like the Spartan enslavement of the Messenians. Being alive now means confronting what is happening now, which is the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Your arguments from the past paint you into a corner. You want negotiations, but what is there to negotiate?

How's this: for every 10 treaties with Native Americans breached by us whites, Russia gets to invade and annex one country, outside NATO. Would that make things right?

Sandtown is JAFT. Why do you keep feeding the troll?

[sandtown]

Awkward one, that- looks like you have to support a side backed by the Saudis or by Iran.

To me that is a no-brainer. ISIS would still control a huge swath of Iraq and Syria were it not for Iran's able assistance. The US fought side by side with Soleimani, Iranian troops and Iraqi Shia militias at Mosul and elsewhere. They were indispensible.

Shia fundamentalism is WAY less dangerous than the Sunni variety.

Though for sure the Iranian regime is beyond awful.

Maybe I will start such a thread - gotta run to do some shopping now though.

[sandtown]

In your view, the west should pull it's support, Ukraine should capitulate, and the war can stop. Have I got that right?
And the basis for that being "right", where continuing to fight for a sovereign Ukraine is "wrong", is an end to the killing. Yes? No, maybe? Pete

No, you do not have that right.

[ERGR]

An excert from today's blog by the Finland Swede Kenneth Gregg, who's working as an instructor with the Ukrainian Army:

Uppdateringen 09.12.2022 är sen pga att vi hämtat hem till Kyiv de sista sårade pojkarna från min första utbildade pluton. Utav 22 man är endast 2 man frontduglig, 3 man tagna som krigsfångar av orcerna (vi vet inte om de är i liv, de är inte upptagna på den ryzka POW listan) och 17 man sårade. Även de soldater som Bengt och Emil intervjuade i Maj är bland de sårade. Hoppningsvis blir det ett uppföljningsreportage om dessa. Med detta har alltså pluton Hammer av den 130 bataljonen upphört att existera men vi skall vara glada att vi inte har stupade.

In case everyone hasn't learnt Swedish yet, here's a translation:

The update for Dec 9 2022 is late due to taking home to Kyiv the last of my injured boys from the first platoon I trained. From 22 men, only two are fit for front duty now, three have been taken prisoners by the orcs (we don't know if they're alive, they aren't on the Ruzzian POW list) and 17 wounded. Also the soldiers who Bengt and Emil interviewed in May are amongst the wounded. Maybe there'll be a follow-up article on them. After this, the platoon Hammer of the 130 Battalion has ceased to exist, but we have to be glad that none has been killed.

That's life in Ukraine. I'm grateful to them for fighting our war.

/Erik

[heimlaga]

So am I.
If Ukraine is conquered by Russia there is a strong likelyhood that once many enogh civilians have been abducted or killed to make the nation and society cease to exist Putin will start on yet another conquest. Who is next in turn? Finland?

[C. Ross]

Moldova and Belarus because they’re not in NATO.

Some kind of pressure on Lithuania in order to get access to Kaliningrad.

Which NATO nation is highest at risk? Wouldn’t a prudent person bet on Estonia or Lithuania before Poland or Finland?

[Osborne Russell]

Sandtown is JAFT. Why do you keep feeding the troll?

I'm trying to figure out where he's coming from.

[Peerie Maa]

I'm trying to figure out where he's coming from.

He haters the idea of war, but has no effective strategy for avoiding nor stopping it.

For example, he supports a bunch of old farts sailing around the globe on a schooner to ban the bomb.
A tad futile, as if he had not mentioned them on here, we would not know that they exist.
Also naive, as once technology has been invented, you cannot uninvent it. After all, we still practice fighting with swords, archery, throwing spears and so on.
With nuclear weapons, any aspiring tin pot dictator with enough cash can develop their own, so we need a strategy that works to deter their use. In that we have been successful for decades. Deterrence, not disinventing.

[epoxyboy]

No, you do not have that right.

So enlighten me. You know, that exchange of views you were talking about. Because honestly, your message has got lost in all the noise and excursions into topics of limited relevance to this thread.

Pete

[johnw]

I'm trying to figure out where he's coming from.

He claims to favor peace, but if you ask him to engage in a discussion about how that might be achieved, he claims you're just trying to provoke him. Like I said, JAFT.

He doesn't so much care about peace, as about making himself the center of attention.

[sandtown]

I protested against Australian involvement, which turned out to be pointless..

No it was not pointless, it was your patriotic duty.

In the end, they only way they can win is if we give up. Please do not do that.

And thank you for your service !!

[sandtown]

He haters the idea of war, but has no effective strategy for avoiding nor stopping it.

For example, he supports a bunch of old farts sailing around the globe on a schooner to ban the bomb. .

The Golden Rule is now in Apalachicola, Florida - and it is a fiesty old ketch, not a schooner.

Being a part of that project is the best time and money that I have ever wasted.

And learn how to spell.

[Nicholas Carey]

He haters the idea of war, but has no effective strategy for avoiding nor stopping it.

For example, he supports a bunch of old farts sailing around the globe on a schooner to ban the bomb.
A tad futile, as if he had not mentioned them on here, we would not know that they exist.
Also naive, as once technology has been invented, you cannot uninvent it. After all, we still practice fighting with swords, archery, throwing spears and so on.
With nuclear weapons, any aspiring tin pot dictator with enough cash can develop their own, so we need a strategy that works to deter their use. In that we have been successful for decades. Deterrence, not disinventing.

Fission devices are dirt simple to make: 2 hemispheres of sufficiently fissile material (U-235, P-239, or the equivalent), separated by a wax sheet of sufficient thickness, the whole being surrounded by a shaped charge of high explosive designed to drive the two hemispheres together, displace the wax, and achieve critical mass.

The hard part is creating/obtaining the sufficiency of fissile matter, and machining it. Aside from anything else, it's (1) highly radioactive, and (2) highly toxic.

[StevenBauer]

There is a lot going on in the tanker market just now…

I didn’t see this post before the edit but is this about China not letting Russian ships into ports because they can’t get insurance?

[WI-Tom]

The Golden Rule is now in Apalachicola, Florida - and it is a fiesty old ketch, not a schooner.

Being a part of that project is the best time and money that I have ever wasted.

And learn how to spell.

'Nuff said.

Tom

[sandtown]

A tad futile, as if he had not mentioned them on here, we would not know that they exist.
Also naive, as once technology has been invented, you cannot uninvent it. After all, we still practice fighting with swords, archery, throwing spears and so on..

A stunningly ignorant statement on your part - you have zero clue about the history of arms control.

Vets For Peace and ICAN deserve huge credit for outlawing nuke weapons, and we even got a Nobel for it !!

And BTW the US blew up the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty in 1999 - the UK had signed on, along with almost all the rest of the world. Over 70% of USAeans were in favor of it.

And they had seismic detectors in place around the planet to prevent cheating ..

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/d3/1f...081795045a.jpg

[epoxyboy]

Not sure how much to read into this- Belarus is allowing trans-shipments of Ukrainian grain to Lithuanian ports, with no strings attached.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-bel...222751023.html

It also sounds like Belarusian military is rather resistant to Russian suggestions that they get involved. Maybe it's dawning on Lukashenko that sidling too close to his buddy putin will not end well for him.

Pete

[Nicholas Carey]

A stunningly ignorant statement on your part - you have zero clue about the history of arms control.

You might be surprised WRT that.

Vets For Peace and ICAN deserve huge credit for outlawing nuke weapons, and we even got a Nobel for it !!

Nuclear weapons have been outlawed?

That's great news! — Has anybody gotten around to informing the nuclear powers?

ROTFLOL

And a Nobel? I see that ICAN was awarded a Nobel in 2017, but no mention of Verersns for Peace.

https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/li...-peace-prizes/

As far as the prohibition of nuclear weapons goes, it does seem to exist (https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/tpnw/), and is nought but fluffy words, given that no nation actually possessing nuclear weapons, or striving to acquire the same, is party to it (nor are they likely to be).

https://treaties.unoda.org/t/tpnw

English text here: https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/...df?OpenElement

The non-proliferation treat, pretty much, with some added fluff that's meaningless without buy-in from the nuclear powers.

Vanuatu is on board, though. That's something.

[Landrith]

Unfortunately, our favorite South American on the ground in Ukraine Gonzalo Lira is accurately describing winter warfare problems. This sadly rings true to me. https://www.bitchute.com/video/iN4gwJc6IDbc/ I don't know how you stop Russian forces once they are free to move cross country on frozen ground.

[ERGR]

Landrith,
I's the other way around. How will the poorly equipped and poorly disciplined Russians handle the cold? How will their defence liines hold now when the mud freezes and rhe Ukrainians can use maneuvre warfare?
/Erik

[epoxyboy]

A stunningly ignorant statement on your part - you have zero clue about the history of arms control.

Vets For Peace and ICAN deserve huge credit for outlawing nuke weapons, and we even got a Nobel for it !!

And BTW the US blew up the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty in 1999 - the UK had signed on, along with almost all the rest of the world. Over 70% of USAeans were in favor of it.

And they had seismic detectors in place around the planet to prevent cheating ..

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/d3/1f...081795045a.jpg

Better late than never .
NZ has had "nuclear free" enshrined in legislation since 1984, at not insignificant real cost to its relationship with the US and others, on multiple levels. Trade, defense, intelligence, you name it, we've taken a hit. No Nobel, just an international slagging.

For all that, it's symbolic.
The world is still awash with nuclear weapons, and for as long as Russia maintains a substantial arsenal, I'm more than happy for the other side to keep theirs.
Anyway, all the big boys vow and declare they'll NEVER launch a first strike, even Russia. So all good, nothing to worry about, eh!
That's Kiwi sarcasm/humour btw. I realise sometimes it doesn't survive the translation to American.

Pete

[Landrith]

Landrith,
I's the other way around. How will the poorly equipped and poorly disciplined Russians handle the cold? How will their defence liines hold now when the mud freezes and rhe Ukrainians can use maneuvre warfare?
/Erik

I think Kiev was saved by Ukrainians being able to ambush Russians limited to road movement in warmer months with soft ground. When the ground freezes and the rocket launcher artillery pieces are whacked, then the attrition of conventional artillery becomes unsustainable. Maneuver instead of attrition as Colin Powell preached it depends on vehicles, spares, and fuel. Air superiority was also a key ingredient. Ukraine on the Eastern front lacks all four, and ammunition too. It does not bode well.

[dutchpp]

The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, December 9.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...ent-december-9

Key Takeaways

• Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to discuss negotiations with Ukraine as a means of separating Ukraine from its Western supporters by portraying Kyiv as unwilling to compromise or even to talk seriously.
• Putin’s positioning in the Russian information space continues to oscillate between supporting the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and backing the nationalist and pro-war milblogger community.
• An independent open-source investigation by the BBC’s Russia service and independent Russia outlet Mediazona found that members of Russian national republics deploy to Ukraine at disproportionately higher rates than ethnically Russian oblasts, but that ethnic Russians are dying at a rate proportional to their representation in the Russian Federation population, contrary to previous ISW assessments.
• Russian officials strengthened existing legislation to stifle domestic dissent.
• Senior US officials stated that Russia is providing an unprecedented level of military and technical support to Iran in exchange for Iranian-made weapons systems.
• Russian forces established defensive lines near Svatove, and Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks near Kreminna.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks near Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
• Russian forces may have established positions on an island west of Kherson City in the Dnipro River.
• Ukrainian forces’ interdiction campaign against Russian military assets and logistics hubs in southern Ukraine has likely degraded Russian forces, their logistics lines, and broader Russian morale.
• Putin doubled down on claims that Russia will not conduct a second wave of mobilization amidst persistent concerns within Russian society.
• Russian occupation authorities continued to strengthen physical, legal, and social control over occupied territories.

[George.]

With nuclear weapons, any aspiring tin pot dictator with enough cash can develop their own, so we need a strategy that works to deter their use. In that we have been successful for decades.

So because deterrence worked with 5 players (all seriously traumatized by WW2) over a few decades, it is sure to work with dozens of players over the centuries?

I may disagree with Sandy's posture on this thread, but his "futile" campaign is our only long-term hope, regardless of the odds against it.

What is truly futile is the idea that fielding lots of nukes will keep your people "safe".

[WX]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/...-for-fake-news

<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/13/russia-opens-criminal-case-against-activist-yashin">Yashin was tried</a>
over a YouTube video released in April in which he discussed evidence
uncovered by Western journalists of Russian atrocities in Bucha, near
Kyiv, and cast doubt on the official Moscow version that such reports
had been fabricated as a “provocation” against Russia.

[WX]

Unfortunately, our favorite South American on the ground in Ukraine Gonzalo Lira is accurately describing winter warfare problems. This sadly rings true to me. https://www.bitchute.com/video/iN4gwJc6IDbc/ I don't know how you stop Russian forces once they are free to move cross country on frozen ground.

Bitchute, is not a reliable news source.

[Peerie Maa]

So because deterrence worked with 5 players (all seriously traumatized by WW2) over a few decades, it is sure to work with dozens of players over the centuries?

I may disagree with Sandy's posture on this thread, but his "futile" campaign is our only long-term hope, regardless of the odds against it.

What is truly futile is the idea that fielding lots of nukes will keep your people "safe".

Define fielding.



As to deterrence, you got any better ideas? Or a time machine to go back and prevent the development of nuclear technology?
They are not going to cease to exist, so learn to live with them.

[mizzenman]

Regarding shipping
https://youtu.be/W5c_oN9HLII

[skuthorp]

sandtown
Senior Member


Join DateJan 2013Posts1,845


Re: Ukraine

Originally Posted by WX
I protested against Australian involvement, which turned out to be pointless..



No it was not pointless, it was your patriotic duty.

In the end, they only way they can win is if we give up. Please do not do that.

And thank you for your service !!.

It was more than pointless, it was virtual murder of Australians by their own politicians in an exercise in US a55licking.