Ukraine

[George.]

It will get cold enough to kill underequipped draftees, though.

And civilians in unheated homes...

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Stefan Korshak’s report for today:

https://medium.com/@Stefan.Korshak/n...k-818b576edb9e

[sandtown]

I have you on ignore (bliss!) but I have to respond.

What is it with with you, that you have to torque everything in into "Russia good, USA bad" scenario? .

Bull-Pucky Sir . . . What is it with you that you are offended by empirical historical truth ??

OK, so what it is with you is that you are so thoroughly propagandized as to be almost entirely estranged from reality.

Open skies, INF, ABM, Iran nukes, N. Korea nukes, just for openers - and it was by no means only Trump.

More here - this list includes agreements signed but not ratified, which I think is reasonable.

https://qz.com/donald-trump-is-allow...-wa-1849812335

Don't write Bull Pucky if you do not want to be called out.

[C. Ross]

We have our answer.

Not “peace talks good” but Russia good America bad. And that explains Ukraine, QED.

[JayInOz]

I keep waiting for him to get to the point but he doesn't seem to have one. It's like a paramedic lecturing onlookers at a traffic accident about the importance of safe driving practices while the accident victim bleeds out at his feet. JayInOz

[sandtown]

We have our answer.
Not “peace talks good” but Russia good America bad. And that explains Ukraine, QED.

Well, some time in Vietnam and Central America and the Balkans and passing knowledge of the Forever Wars in Iraq and Syria and Libya and Afghanistan . .

does tend to have an impact on a person.

How are you liking your Kool Aid ??

[sandtown]

I keep waiting for him to get to the point but he doesn't seem to have one. It's like a paramedic lecturing onlookers at a traffic accident about the importance of safe driving practices while the accident victim bleeds out at his feet. JayInOz

And as usual you display your intellectual ineptitude by launching personal attacks . .

while studiously avoiding the relevant issues and facts.

[epoxyboy]

Bull-Pucky Sir . . . What is it with you that you are offended by empirical historical truth ??

OK, so what it is with you is that you are so thoroughly propagandized as to be almost entirely estranged from reality.

Open skies, INF, ABM, Iran nukes, N. Korea nukes, just for openers - and it was by no means only Trump.

More here - this list includes agreements signed but not ratified, which I think is reasonable.

https://qz.com/donald-trump-is-allow...-wa-1849812335

Don't write Bull Pucky if you do not want to be called out.

Donald Trump is allowed back on twitter? I'm struggling to see the relevance .

[George.]

The Russians are shelling Kherson from across the river. I suppose they will soon run out of drones and missiles, but they can keep shelling all winter. Kherson will take much of the punishment meant for Ukraine. It may be reduced to rubble by spring. No military value, just terror bombing the old fashioned way, with cannon.

I wonder if sandtown has any thoughts on that.

[dutchpp]

The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, November 22.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...nt-november-22

Key Takeaways

• The Kremlin may be setting information conditions for a false-flag attack in Belgorod Oblast.
• The Russian military has significantly depleted its arsenal of high-precision missiles but will likely still threaten Ukrainian infrastructure.
• The Russian military is likely struggling to replenish its arsenal of high-precision weapons systems.
• The Belarusian prime minister traveled to Iran to discuss economic cooperation and possible security ties.
• Russian military movements suggest that Russian forces are likely reinforcing positions in eastern Zaporizhia and western Donetsk oblasts.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
• Crimean occupation officials demonstrated heightened unease—likely over Ukrainian strikes on Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in the peninsula and ongoing military operations on the Kinburn Spit.
• The Kremlin continues to deflect concerns about mobilization onto the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).
• Russian sources continue to tout the forced adoption of Ukrainian children into Russian families.

[LeeG]

So what happens now that Ukraine’s power grid is crashed? Lots of diesel trucks going to generators? Lots of assymeteic defense while adhoc repairs happen?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...-water-russia/

During a briefing for reporters on Tuesday, Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, the head of Ukrenergo, the state-run power grid operator, called the damage to the power system “colossal.”
And Russia last week broadened its targets. Oleksiy Chernyshov, chief executive of Ukraine’s state energy company Naftogaz, said in an interview that a “massive rocket attack” hit 10 gas production facilities in the Kharkiv and Poltava regions, including Shebelinka, one the largest production and drilling areas.
“Of course, we will do our best now to recover, but this will take time and resources and material,” Chernyshov said. “Time is of the essence,” he added. “Because winter is now.”

The targeting of the gas supply was a critical development, said Victoria Voytsitska, a former member of parliament now working with civil society groups on getting Ukraine the equipment it needs. If Moscow takes out the gas system, she said, cities and villages across the country could become “uninhabitable.”

[WszystekPoTrochu]

They are importing power generators by thousands since weeks. This is by no means sustainable, nor sufficient. Partial evacuation of Kiyv was mentioned as an option.


Authorities prepare evacuation plans
alternative source

Ukrenergo chief dismisses the need for evacuation for now

Southeast is encouraged to evacuate already

[sandtown]

Donald Trump is allowed back on twitter? I'm struggling to see the relevance .

Thanks for the correction. It should be . . . https://www.govexec.com/oversight/20...omises/148179/

The pro-war at any costs crowd around here not only gets history wrong, but they try to shut down anyone who dares to point out actual facts.

It is political correctness run amok.

[LeeG]

They are importing power generators by thousands since weeks. This is by no means sustainable, nor sufficient. Partial evacuation of Kiyv was mentioned as an option.


Authorities prepare evacuation plans
alternative source

Ukrenergo chief dismisses the need for evacuation for now

Southeast is encouraged to evacuate already

There has to be some covert effort attacking launchers in Russia. Is Russia simply leaving a crippled Ukraine as a parting shot or is the idea that they can come back more easily to evacuated regions with open fire on anything that moves? 2023 looks like our next energy crisis year.

[Decourcy]

Thanks for the correction. It should be . . . https://www.govexec.com/oversight/20...omises/148179/

The pro-war at any costs crowd around here not only gets history wrong, but they try to shut down anyone who dares to point out actual facts.

It is political correctness run amok.

You are not the outlier or victim you think you are. There is zero people of the “pro-war at any costs crowd” here. Zero. Get over yourself.

[sandtown]

You are not the outlier or victim you think you are. There is zero people of the “pro-war at any costs crowd” here. Zero. Get over yourself.

Again, nothing but personal attacks.

You make zero effort to defend the thesis that the US is a reliable treaty partner - more so than Russia/USSR.

That must be because you know it is not true.

The peace crowd faced the same sort of abuse when we were right about Vietnam, Central America, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and more.

I am not going anywhere, got that ??

Actually, I should also point out another factor in the conflict that you keyboard warriors are ignoring,

which is the rising threat of extreme ethnic nationalism in Europe (the US too of course), in particular Hungary, Russia, Italy, Poland, Ukraine, Serbia and more - Sweden even.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...tory-hungarian

[Vadim 68]

. There is zero people of the “pro-war at any costs crowd” here. Zero. Get over yourself.

My comment on the Russians is: kill them all. Teach history a lesson.

Killing is necessary, all the way to Moscow.....

There is reality, and what goes on inside your head. Either you do not pay attention or purposely trolling.

[George Jung]

Trolling?

Well.... *somebody* is.

[dutchpp]

20 questions are usually enough to built a picture of someone, I wonder if an overview of the last 10 posts could do the same ( some of them edited for length, Italics are added by me)

#7068
Actually, I should also point out another factor in the conflict that you keyboard warriors are ignoring,
which is the rising threat of extreme ethnic nationalism in Europe (the US too of course), in particular Hungary, Russia, Italy, Poland, Ukraine, Serbia and more - Sweden even.

#7065
The pro-war at any costs crowd around here not only gets history wrong, but they try to shut down anyone who dares to point out actual facts.
It is political correctness run amok.

#7059
And as usual you display your intellectual ineptitude by launching personal attacks . .
while studiously avoiding the relevant issues and facts.

#7058
Well, some time in Vietnam and Central America and the Balkans and passing knowledge of the Forever Wars in Iraq and Syria and Libya and Afghanistan . .
does tend to have an impact on a person.
How are you liking your Kool Aid ??

#7055
Bull-Pucky Sir . . . What is it with you that you are offended by empirical historical truth ??
OK, so what it is with you is that you are so thoroughly propagandized as to be almost entirely estranged from reality.
Open skies, INF, ABM, Iran nukes, N. Korea nukes, just for openers - and it was by no means only Trump.
More here - this list includes agreements signed but not ratified, which I think is reasonable.
(LINK REMOVED)
Don't write Bull Pucky if you do not want to be called out.

#7042
Sorry, but that statement is simply Bull-Pucky.
The US has a far, far worse record of treaty compliance than does the USSR/Russia.
It is not even close, and you keep on repeating it without a shred of evidence
You often make good points, but they are diminished by this sort of willful blindness.

#7029
Earlier I posted on the media's rush to war . . and was poo-pooed for my trouble. (From the Institute for Public Accuracy) (continued with the overview of articles)

#7027
Well I have posted on this issue previously as well . . . at some length in fact. Feel free to look them up.
Just stop and think for a moment . . . when Kissinger, Kennan and many others warned over 15 years ago that the actions of the US and NATO (mostly the US to be sure) were provocative, and then the US went ahead and did what it was specifically warned not to do . . . how can that not be provocative ???
And when the Pope, Erdogan, the former US ambassador to the USSR, and many others point out the provocations - they mostly get personally attacked and their points ignored.
Calling us all Rooskie Bots, or Russian lovers only serves to highlight the irrationality of the criticism. (continued)

#7025
There are any number of risks involved with the conflict - one that is seldom mentioned is that Ukr and/or Russia might join the growing ranks of extreme ethnic nationalist countries in Europe.

#7011
I used to assign both Sun Tzu and Von Clausewitz in my classes. Most of the students were surprised that KVC was more of a lover of war.
Seeing war as merely politics by other means is a recipe for global disaster.

[George Jung]

Yep. I do believe most everyone here has identified the culprit. But can't ignore, anymore than not picking at a scab.

It's gonna scar, I tell ya!

[Decourcy]

Again, nothing but personal attacks.

You make zero effort to defend the thesis that the US is a reliable treaty partner - more so than Russia/USSR.

That must be because you know it is not true.

The peace crowd faced the same sort of abuse when we were right about Vietnam, Central America, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and more.

I am not going anywhere, got that ??

Actually, I should also point out another factor in the conflict that you keyboard warriors are ignoring,

which is the rising threat of extreme ethnic nationalism in Europe (the US too of course), in particular Hungary, Russia, Italy, Poland, Ukraine, Serbia and more - Sweden even.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...tory-hungarian

No, just observation. You’re the one insulting others. I won’t apologize for pointing out that fact.

- who’s thesis that the US is a reliable treaty partner? As a Canadian I know damn well you aren’t. But that has zero to do with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
- What abuse?
- no-one is asking you to go anywhere, got it? Stop playing the victim card
-national is a problem. And right now, it’s being used by Russia to attempt a takeover of a people who want no part of Russia. Stop ignoring that factor

[C. Ross]

Well, some time in Vietnam and Central America and the Balkans and passing knowledge of the Forever Wars in Iraq and Syria and Libya and Afghanistan . .

does tend to have an impact on a person.

How are you liking your Kool Aid ??

It is more honest to make your position clear without hiding behind a peaceful negotiations facade.

I’m quite aware of America’s sins. Wars in Vietnam, Central America, the Balkhans, Iraq, or Afghanistan did not lead Russia to invade Ukraine and commit war crimes. The way for America to atone for its past sins is not by abandoning Ukraine to Russia. Unless, I suppose, one wanted to see Russia succeed.

[LeeG]

There is reality, and what goes on inside your head. Either you do not pay attention or purposely trolling.

It’s pretty obvious some folks like simple solutions.

Ok, enough of “whose side are you on?”. It looks likely that anti immigrant nationalism will get a boost along with those seeking simple solutions when more complications happen on world food and energy supplies.

[LeeG]

It is more honest to make your position clear without hiding behind a peaceful negotiations facade.

I’m quite aware of America’s sins. Wars in Vietnam, Central America, the Balkhans, Iraq, or Afghanistan did not lead Russia to invade Ukraine and commit war crimes. The way for America to atone for its past sins is not by abandoning Ukraine to Russia. Unless, I suppose, one wanted to see Russia succeed.

ok but..when folks start characterizing Russia from some kind of moral or ethical high ground with all that history it’s not an argument supporting Russia or excusing it. It’s acknowledging that we have no basis for that characterization. Yes let’s help Ukraine but not because Russia is eevil for “violating Ukraine’s sovereignty!” but because Ukrainians need it.

[C. Ross]

I dunno Lee. Maybe for some the need to demonize America is so strong that it bleeds over into defending Russia. Seems crazy to me. I think each can be judged by its own actions and history.

[Vadim 68]

It’s pretty obvious some folks like simple solutions..

Killing Russians is not the simple answer though is it? That would lead to possible nuclear conflict. The only "simple" thing about that idea are the people who suggest it, as they clearly have no grasp on the real world implications, or just do not care.

[LeeG]

I dunno Lee. Maybe for some the need to demonize America is so strong that it bleeds over into defending Russia. Seems crazy to me. I think each can be judged by its own actions and history.

Or maybe some folks need to frame every conflict in good guys and bad guys is so strong that characterizing the issues in other terms is interpreted as giving aid and comfort to the bad guys. That was GW’s speechwriters talking point from the WhiteHouse Iraq Group in dealing with domestic opposition to the invasion of Iraq.

[johnw]

It is more honest to make your position clear without hiding behind a peaceful negotiations facade.

I’m quite aware of America’s sins. Wars in Vietnam, Central America, the Balkhans, Iraq, or Afghanistan did not lead Russia to invade Ukraine and commit war crimes. The way for America to atone for its past sins is not by abandoning Ukraine to Russia. Unless, I suppose, one wanted to see Russia succeed.

When anyone tries to discuss with him the substance of negotiations, Sandy pulls back into his shell. If he actually cared about negotiations, he'd be happy to discuss them. All he wants to talk about is denouncing America and all its works in a way that seems more like religion than reason. It's a shame, because how this war ends is a pretty difficult problem. As I said before, it's difficult to see an off-ramp for either side, and we need them for both sides.

[heimfried]

I think, he is right:

The best path to peace is not talks with Putin, but helping Ukraine to win this war
Timothy Garton Ash
There will come a time for negotiations – but calls to reach a deal with the Kremlin now are more wrong-headed than ever
[...]
Donald Trump recently hinted that he might be the perfect candidate to practise the art of the deal with Putin. Silvio Berlusconi has also proposed himself as a mediator. What a dream team they would be together – Moscow’s dream team. Putin would like nothing more than to have a ceasefire in Ukraine while these two sit around his Covid-secure long table in the Kremlin. Meanwhile, the Russian dictator’s battered, demoralised armed forces could dig in to defend the still-large expanse of Ukraine they occupy, regroup, rest, rearm, bring in the recently conscripted reinforcements – and then start up the war again, sending a thank-you consignment of vodka to Berlusconi and Trump.
[...]

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...in-war-kremlin

[WszystekPoTrochu]

I think, he is right

He is absolutely right, a ceasefire benefits one side and one side only.

[SKIP KILPATRICK]

Killing Russians is not the simple answer though is it? That would lead to possible nuclear conflict. The only "simple" thing about that idea are the people who suggest it, as they clearly have no grasp on the real world implications, or just do not care.

Russians always want to play their nuclear card. Threats, threats, and more threats! Veiled threats as usual. Go suck it!

[gypsie]

Killing Russians is not the simple answer though is it?

The Simple Answer - so easy to write.

I'm not sure what the word 'answer' means in that question - but if the Ukrainians having to respond to Russian aggression is equal to Ukraine 'answering' Russian aggression then maybe we are on the same wavelength.
I'm also not sure about the word 'the' - it kind implies a range of choices for Ukraine? If so - care to elaborate?

I agree - killing Russians is not a simple answer.

The simple answer would be for Russia to be a good global citizen.
Until then Russians appear hell bent on giving citizens of other countries no choice but to kill Russians. And right now there are multiple countries in that category.
Its a simple fact, all the simple answers are in Russia's hands. Everyone else has to do the hard yards.

As always - really keen to have you paint a picture of the alternatives, rather than hear you pour out more platitudes.

[Nicholas Carey]

I did not know that Putin has created his version of die Hitlerjugend.

Shall we call it die Putinjugend?

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...the-motherland

[skuthorp]

Common practice in RW dictatorships, steal the children og your opponents and bring them up in the regimes image. The ultimate revenge.

[sandtown]

Or maybe some folks need to frame every conflict in good guys and bad guys is so strong that characterizing the issues in other terms is interpreted as giving aid and comfort to the bad guys. That was GW’s speechwriters talking point from the WhiteHouse Iraq Group in dealing with domestic opposition to the invasion of Iraq.

Well actually, things got so hot in 2003 that Dubya made a plea to the public that those of us opposed to that insane war had a right to express our views.

The threats against our crowd declined noticeably around then.

I respect him for that.