Ukraine

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Pregnant soldiers? I have never heard about it before!
https://youtu.be/xGZhcaxF4l4

Last Christmas I knew almost nothing about Ukraine. Indeed I fear I spoke of « the Ukraine ».

Now I know a little.

I realise that what I always thought was « eastern Europe » is « central Europe ». There’s a whole lot more Europe than I thought there was.

I definitely want Ukraine in the EU (even if they get there before us) and in NATO.

And I realise that there are forty million and more bright, capable, hard working, often good looking and extremely brave people that I had known nothing about.

[L.W. Baxter]

thanks for the candor, acb. i am in good company.

[mizzenman]

Andrew, I feel the same, Europe is much larger than i realized

[ERGR]

When the war in Ukraine is won, I expect that it's mostly up to Europe to finance the restoration of Ukraine. I'm very grateful to the US for all the military aid, which is making all the difference now, but I would be pleasantly surprised if the US public still supports financial aid to Ukraine several years after the war. Europe has a very strong interest in a functioning Ukraine, as a neighbour and as an EU member, so it's only fair that the burden is shifted to our taxpayers. Anyway, we have to win first and right now the US military aid is making the difference.
/Erik

[skuthorp]

Pregnant soldiers? I have never heard about it before!
https://youtu.be/xGZhcaxF4l4

I get the feeling that there is more than one lesson other nations and armies can lean from this conflict. Ukraine may end up as one of the more serious military powers in europe.

[skuthorp]

When the war in Ukraine is won, I expect that it's mostly up to Europe to finance the restoration of Ukraine. I'm very grateful to the US for all the military aid, which is making all the difference now, but I would be pleasantly surprised if the US public still supports financial aid to Ukraine several years after the war. Europe has a very strong interest in a functioning Ukraine, as a neighbour and as an EU member, so it's only fair that the burden is shifted to our taxpayers. Anyway, we have to win first and right now the US military aid is making the difference.
/Erik

Erik, Ukraine will still be a buffer state as Russia is not going away any time soon. And after the last year's work the most important in military, civil, agricultural and not least as an example of what can be achieved.
I do not think Ukraine will be abandoned, in fact keeping too much 'help and influence' out may be the problem.
The news about Serbia maybe taking a step back is an example.

[Nicholas Carey]

I saw ( and cannot find again ) a short video of a whole field of Ukrainian rocket artillery absolutely UNLOADING on the Russian Kherson bridgehead. It reminded me of old WWII Soviet film of Katyusha batteries letting loose against the Germans. Absolutely shock and awe, trust me. You could hear the Ukrainian artillerists chuckling after they had fired everything they had.

I saw that. Modern equivalent of a Time-On-Target, where an entire infantry division's artillery batteries execute a coordinated fire mission against a single target, with each battery's fire timed so that the entire salvo arrives on target [approximately] simultaneously.

This:

https://youtu.be/nq300eUoQfg

[sandtown]

Now I know a little. .

Second that . .

[dutchpp]

One never knows too much.

The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, November 12.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...nt-november-12

Key Takeaways

• Russia’s withdrawal from Kherson City is igniting an ideological fracture between pro-war figures and Russian President Vladimir Putin, eroding confidence in Putin’s commitment to and ability to deliver on his war promises.
• Russian officials are increasingly normalizing the public and likely illegal deportation of thousands of Ukrainian children to Russia.
• The Russian military leadership is trying and failing to integrate ad hoc military formations into a more cohesive fighting force in Ukraine.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the direction of Kreminna and Svatove.
• Ukrainian forces continued to liberate settlements on the right (western) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in the direction of Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Vuhledar.
• Russian officials may be trying to avoid providing military personnel with promised payments.
• Russian forces and occupation officials continue to endanger residents and subject them to coercive measures.

[JayInOz]

Just watched a little documentary about this old couple in Dagestan- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vht9ll70jkQ They have lived alone in the town for more than seventy years, since the Russians forced everyone to leave in 1944. Seems the Russians have been Ahole neighbours for quite a while. (Note some really nice stonework too) JayInOz

[WX]

I saw that. Modern equivalent of a Time-On-Target, where an entire infantry division's artillery batteries execute a coordinated fire mission against a single target, with each battery's fire timed so that the entire salvo arrives on target [approximately] simultaneously.

Jesus H!

[Nicholas Carey]

Banksy, the elusive graffiti artist is in Ukraine.

https://www.theguardian.com/artandde...ing-in-ukraine

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63606658

He's claimed this one:



But there's more







https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QtrubdUiRls

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Stefan Korshak’s report, with some serious military discussion:

https://medium.com/@Stefan.Korshak/n...s-aa4d70093b0e

[CollinR]

ACB, this seems to be a post from July. Never mind, we'll have to look it up ourselves. No worries.

[NickW]

Here's today's post by Stefan

https://medium.com/@Stefan.Korshak/n...s-aa4d70093b0e

Nick

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

ACB, this seems to be a post from July. Never mind, we'll have to look it up ourselves. No worries.

Sorry: now corrected on the previous page.

Here as well:

https://medium.com/@Stefan.Korshak/n...s-aa4d70093b0e

[WszystekPoTrochu]

I realise that what I always thought was « eastern Europe » is « central Europe ».

At least something's changing for some people Seeing what kind of people live in (north)eastern Europe, I think you now undrestand why being called eastern Europeans was so annoing to Poles

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

;-)

[ERGR]

There's info that Ukraine has crossed the Dnipro into the Kinburn Peninsula at the outlet of Dnipro into the Black Sea.
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/sta...Qvt4PLA8obS5Bg
The Kinburn Peninsula has been used by the Russians for bombarding Mykolaiv and as a forward observation post. The terrain is supposed to be unsuitable for tanks. The rumour is that Ukraine has crossed with special operation forces (light infantry). All of the Kinburn Peninsula can be targeted by conventional Ukrainian 155 mm and 152 mm artillery from the west bank of the Dnipro. A guess is that the Ukrainian forces on the Kinburn Peninsula will act as forward observers and lead artillery fire onto Russian positions and attempts at reinforcements.
We'll see what comes out of it.
/Erik

[Gerarddm]

Korshak's observation that the UA needs better and longer range weaponry which we have not given them ( yet ) did not point to the political side of it: there is a balancing point between punishing Putin, and backing him into a corner where he may do something rash. To date the balancing act seems to have brought success.

[skuthorp]

Long range weaponry may eventually be seen as a direct threat to Russian border territory.
If Ukraine manages to clear it's territory to the border, or isolate Crimea this could be a consideration of thise supplying weaponry.

[JayInOz]

Retaking Kherson was a slap in the face for the Russians and a humiliation for Putin. They will live with it. But if Ukraine looks to retake Crimea, I reckon that will be too much for the Russians to bear. Apart from the humiliation and loss of face, the loss of such an economic and strategic prize is something the Russians will try to stop at any cost. Nothing the Ukrainians have done thus far suggests that they are likely to make any major missteps but there may be some truly savage fighting to come. Putin needs to know that the support for Ukraine will not waver no matter how long it takes and that he cannot win- Spoken from my armchair as usual. JayInOz

[dutchpp]

The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, November 13.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...nt-november-13

Key inflections in ongoing military operations on November 13:

• Wagner Group Financer Yevgeny Prigozhin asked the Russian Prosecutor General’s Office to open a case against St. Petersburg Governor Alexander Beglov for high treason amid viral footage of Wagner forces murdering one of their own.[19] Prigozhin and Russian nationalist milbloggers largely supported the murder of the alleged traitor.[20]
• The Russian military grouping stationed in Belarus continues to generate social tensions among Belarusians.[21]
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the direction of Kreminna and Svatove.[22]
• Ukrainian forces continued to consolidate control over the right bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.[23] Ukrainian forces struck a Russian military base in Chaplynka, Kherson Oblast, 50km south of Beryslav on the eastern bank of the Dnipro.[24]
• Russian forces continued to conduct offensive operations in the directions of Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Vuhledar.[25] The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian forces captured Mayorsk, southeast of Bakhmut.[26]
• Russian forces continued routine indirect fire against frontline settlements in Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.[27] Russian forces struck Zaporizhzhia City with an Iskander missile.[28]
• Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the demobilization of mobilized students in Russian-occupied Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, likely as part of an ongoing effort to integrate proxy forces into the Russian Armed Forces.[29]
• Russian forces and occupation officials are forcibly mobilizing men in Russian-occupied Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast, and forcing them to construct trenches and defensive fortifications in the city.[30]
• Ukrainian officials stated that Russian forces are withdrawing from the left bank of the Dnipro River and concentrating forces and equipment in Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast, and Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast.[31]
• Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed an amendment to a draft law that would allow Russian officials to revoke Russian citizenship for disseminating “false” information about the Russian military, participating in extremist or undesirable organizations, or calling for violations of Russian “territorial integrity.”[32]

[WszystekPoTrochu]

sergey lavrov has been taken to the hospital after suffering a health problem following his arrival for the Group of 20 summit in Bali

that would be awfully convenient, having him die far from moscow, not falling out of a window - wouldn't it?

[dutchpp]

Well lets hope Putin appoints someone else as minister of foreign affairs, Lavrov can be arrested in Bali and transported to The Hague for a chat with the ICC

[WX]

From my FB friend in Kherson.

Hi Harry. We are alive. I am in the order. Russian occupiers looted our city. Communication not. Water is not. Light not. They blew up all the electricity water and towers connection. Our nice Warriors of Ukraine kicked their of the city. Thank you, one that do not forget). Embrace. Sincerely, (I've left out his name).

[skuthorp]

sergey lavrov has been taken to the hospital after suffering a health problem following his arrival for the Group of 20 summit in Bali

that would be awfully convenient, having him die far from moscow, not falling out of a window - wouldn't it?

OTOH maybe he's preparing for a bid for political asylum? Moths shouldn't fly too close to the flame etc…...

[Vadim 68]

sergey lavrov has been taken to the hospital after suffering a health problem following his arrival for the Group of 20 summit in Bali

that would be awfully convenient, having him die far from moscow, not falling out of a window - wouldn't it?

Appears you are promoting propaganda.


Russia’s Lavrov denies report of heart condition hospitalisation | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera

[ERGR]

There are reports (as usual unconfirmed) that half of the Kinburn Peninsula (on the east side of the Dnipro) is liberated now. The self-proclaimed armchair generals on the Swedish site I'm following have various theories on where this will lead. My opinion is that Ukraine will be opportunistic. They'll advance with light infantry until they run into strong Russian opposition and then hold on if they can; Ukraine cover the peninsula with conventional artillery from the west side so light infantry may suffice. If Russia ignores them Kinburn might develop into a staging area for Ukraine.
/Erik

[Vadim 68]

Retaking Kherson was a slap in the face for the Russians and a humiliation for Putin. Putin needs to know that the support for Ukraine will not waver no matter how long it takes and that he cannot win- Spoken from my armchair as usual. JayInOz

Understand not everyone has the same view as you do from your armchair.

Is it so hard to see an alternative that rather than "retaking", this can ,and is being be told as a "strategic withdrawl" in order to save lives of soldiers and civilians? There are people who think this is a good move on Putins part, ,and its those people you have no comprehension of.


As for support not wavering, it already is and has been in EU for some time, but its not in MSM interests to report protests in capitals; not everyone thinks flooding Ukraine with weapons is a good idea.

Those whose armchair is on the other side of the planet may not agree, the Finns are already complaining of gangs in Finland and Sweden ,being in possession of arms , supposedly delivered to Ukraines military. This is how support fades when civilians in other countries end up being gunned down by arms sent in from outside countries.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

There are reports (as usual unconfirmed) that half of the Kinburn Peninsula (on the east side of the Dnipro) is liberated now. The self-proclaimed armchair generals on the Swedish site I'm following have various theories on where this will lead. My opinion is that Ukraine will be opportunistic. They'll advance with light infantry until they run into strong Russian opposition and then hold on if they can; Ukraine cover the peninsula with conventional artillery from the west side so light infantry may suffice. If Russia ignores them Kinburn might develop into a staging area for Ukraine.
/Erik

Trivia department - the Battle of Kinburn, a minor engagement in the Crimean War, in 1855, saw the first use of ironclad battleships anywhere, and triggered an arms race between the unlikely allies, Britain and France!

[ERGR]

When you have symptoms that indicate a heart attack, you go immediately to the hospital if you can. At least in Sweden you get a very high priority at the emergency ward, and they immediately run an EKG. It happened once to me. It was false alarm, and I left the hospital about an hour later. Cost me about €20 with our health care system.
I'm not at all surprised that a 70+ year old person with a very stressful life experiences symptoms after a long flight that indicate a heart attack, is advised to go to hospital by the medics that go along and is discharged shortly after. It's not necessary to look for a conspiracy.
/Erik

[Gerarddm]

Russia's evidently orderly pullout from Kherson may be equated to Britain's Dunkirk evacuation: got their guys out, left a LOT of materiel behind.

But as Churchill noted, " wars are not won by evacuations ".

[sandtown]

If Putin goes, his replacement could well be worse.

[ERGR]

A tweet that didn't age well:
https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/st...44795580055552
Skärmklipp.JPG
/Erik