Ukraine

[Hallam]

An interesting comment

[Hallam]

Listen to this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5ckIhm9j9c JayInOz

..........how do we know if its legit recorded conversations or propaganda? It would be easy to record a staged conversation. There does seem to be a lot of corroborating evidence though.

[gypsie]

Kherson also has many of Putins best troops.
Sacrificing them to a grinding death through winter - that'd be them gone. He'd have mobiks and wagner left.

For Ukraine, those troops withdrawing to a much more defendable position across the river, just means somewhere else will get tougher.
Getting a bridgehead on the far bank will be very tough going. I think the fight after Kherson could be the harder.

Zaporizhzhia - I'd guess we'll see that word on the interwebs a bit more often in the coming months.

[WX]

..........how do we know if its legit recorded conversations or propaganda? It would be easy to record a staged conversation. There does seem to be a lot of corroborating evidence though.

There are a large number of phone intercepts on youtube.

[C. Ross]

#6787: What remains for me but to bask in the reflected glory of he who sees what he did not see, and hears what he did not hear?

What Magick powers possesses he?

Attend and tremble, peasants of the Bilge! Our ubermensch has made himself known to us.

[C. Ross]

I wanted to see the retreat announcement. The script and staging is remarkably clumsy, isn’t it? Who writes this stuff?

The longer clips are even more stilted.

This is being shared for a reason. The Russians are planning something bad IMO.

[HRDavies]

#6787: What remains for me but to bask in the reflected glory of he who sees what he did not see, and hears what he did not hear?

What Magick powers possesses he?

That would be yourself ? Because you weren't there either.

At least I was in Shanghai ....

[C. Ross]

Oh, well, you were in Shanghai? That explains all.

[L.W. Baxter]

there was a minute or two when i thought hrdavies had something interesting to say about china, based on his experience.

then i remembered, lots of people live their whole lives in the u.s.a., and never have any insight of interest about the experience.

[gypsie]

As the old saying goes; you can take a Lee Hongzhang to Shanghai, but you can't make me eat that plate of chillied gristle.

[gypsie]

^ Well something funny happened there, I can't remove it either.
The intention was to post an article of the Kyiv Independent that confirms Andrews tweet hunch.

Perhaps there's a nice Ukrainian word starting with a K?

I thought it was a profound Kafkaesque comment. I was impressed by the boldness

[HRDavies]

Oh, well, you were in Shanghai? That explains all.

It does explain that there's about twenty-five million more chinese people than in St. Paul ...

[Nicholas Carey]

I wanted to see the retreat announcement. The script and staging is remarkably clumsy, isn’t it? Who writes this stuff?

The longer clips are even more stilted.

This is being shared for a reason. The Russians are planning something bad IMO.

Well, yes, one does not have a presser and announce a retreat, any more than one announces an offensive.

On television or otherwise.

[ERGR]

About the Russian retreat from Kherson. They realize that the Ukarainians are driving them out and are minimizing their losses, in soldiers as well as in prestige. A seemingly controlled retreat is less demoralizing than a rout. I presume Ukraine will keep maximizing the Russian losses while keeping their own down. Any Russian soldier that escapes across the Dnipro lives to kill more Ukrainians elsewhere.
/Erik

[dutchpp]

The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, November 9.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...ent-november-9

Remarkable aspect; some Russian soldiers got paid $25,- for 45 day's of service, that's an impressive 55 cents per day, a job change perhaps?

Key Takeaways

• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) ordered Russian forces on the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River to begin withdrawing to the east (left) bank on November 9.
• The battle of Kherson is not inherently over, but Russian forces have entered a new phase— prioritizing withdrawing their forces across the river in good order and delaying Ukrainian forces, rather than seeking to halt the Ukrainian counteroffensive entirely.
• Many prominent voices in the Russian milblogger space sided with Surovikin and lauded the decision as a necessary one, indicating that Russian leadership has learned from the information effects of the disastrous Russian withdrawal from Kharkiv Oblast in mid-September.
• Russian National Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev met with senior Iranian officials in Tehran on November 9, likely to discuss the sale of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia and other forms of cooperation
• Russian and Ukrainian sources reported continued fighting along the Svatove-Kremmina highway and Bilohorivka, Luhansk Oblast.
• Ukrainian forces made territorial gains northeast of Kherson City and continued their successful interdiction campaign.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and in western Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian federal subjects are struggling to pay mobilized personnel, and the Russian military is struggling to provision them.
• Relatives of mobilized personnel continue to protest lack of payment and poor conditions.
• Russian occupation deputy head of Kherson Oblast Kirill Stremousov was killed in a claimed car accident in rear Kherson Oblast the day Russian forces announced their withdrawal from the west bank of Kherson Oblast.
• Occupation authorities in rear areas are likely increasing law enforcement crackdowns and filtration measures amid fears of Ukrainian counteroffensives after the November 9 withdrawal announcement

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

I doubt if there are many “high quality” Russian troops in Kherson now. I think the professional soldiers have been withdrawn across the Dnipro and swapped for conscripts.

I will do a little armchair generalising:
- The Dnipro is a formidable natural barrier to both sides.
- we are told that the hydro electric dam has been rigged with demolition charges.
- the lake above the dam provides the cooling water for the Zaporizija nuclear power station
- so “secure the dam” must be a priority for the UAF.

Once the front line is on the Dnipro, the next thing for the UAF must be to drive to the sea at some point in the Donbas and cut the land supply route to the Crimea, along with finishing off the bridge.

[WX]

About the Russian retreat from Kherson. They realize that the Ukarainians are driving them out and are minimizing their losses, in soldiers as well as in prestige. A seemingly controlled retreat is less demoralizing than a rout. I presume Ukraine will keep maximizing the Russian losses while keeping their own down. Any Russian soldier that escapes across the Dnipro lives to kill more Ukrainians elsewhere.
/Erik

Or die elsewhere.

[dutchpp]

I doubt if there are many “high quality” Russian troops in Kherson now. I think the professional soldiers have been withdrawn across the Dnipro and swapped for conscripts.

I will do a little armchair generalising:
- The Dnipro is a formidable natural barrier to both sides.
- we are told that the hydro electric dam has been rigged with demolition charges.
- the lake above the dam provides the cooling water for the Zaporizija nuclear power station
- so “secure the dam” must be a priority for the UAF.

Once the front line is on the Dnipro, the next thing for the UAF must be to drive to the sea at some point in the Donbas and cut the land supply route to the Crimea, along with finishing off the bridge.

Agreed, I just wonder where the Ukrainians plan the attack, the Mariupol area is the most obvious area but the Russians are expecting it over there. So perhaps they will find another place and use the partizan movement to support their advances to the south.

[George.]

The more I think about it, the more this Russian withdrawal makes no sense.

- They are giving up their only bridgehead across the Dnieper, which is harder to cross east to west - Ukraine has the advantage if the river becomes the front line.

- They are giving up hope of resuming their offensive in the future down the coast to Odessa, which has been a major strategic objective from day one.

- They are withdrawing from easily defensible urban terrain, which Ukraine would be reluctant to blast through.

- They are freeing up large numbers of Ukrainian troops which can now be moved to the Zapo or Kharkiv fronts.

- They are announcing their move in advance (wtf?).

Either their lines of supply have been thoroughly wrecked or they are up to something.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

I do think their supply lines are wrecked.

[skuthorp]

Withdrawing all valuables from the area allows the deployment of a dirty bomb, as has been noted before. It would also provide a 'nuclear moat' to some extent on the Russian border.

[The Q]

Once the russians are out of Kherson or possibly only only when most of them are out, I'm expecting the russians to flatten the place, possibly with the "dirty bomb" they claim the Urainians has..

[JayInOz]

Maybe a dirty bomb in Kherson, but I still reckon it's more likely if Ukraine concentrate its forces and tries a big push in Crimea. Either way I hope we're wrong. JayInOz

[dutchpp]

A dirty bomb is mainly a psychological weapon, the actual strategical or tactical damage is limited.
Most modern armies are trained to operate in a contaminated battle field situation.

[Gerarddm]

#6796: That IS a very interesting comment from Beau.

#6821: A Russian dirty bomb would probably kill more Soviets than Ukrainians because that's just how dialed in and professional their army has been.

Speaking of their army, have you caught a glimpse of the guy now running the show in-country? He looks like a Hollywood version of a mean baddie. Hilarious actually.

[Osborne Russell]

A dirty bomb is mainly a psychological weapon, the actual strategical or tactical damage is limited.
Most modern armies are trained to operate in a contaminated battle field situation.

Training is good. Don't forget logistics.

They were trained to sweep the graphite off the roof at Chernobyl, thusly: "Go out there and shovel it off. Listen for me beating on this steel bar. That's when it's time for the next squad. About two minutes."

Not ancient history.

[Rumars]

The more I think about it, the more this Russian withdrawal makes no sense.

It makes perfect sense. To keep the city you need at least 10 000 men, maybe more, fed and munitioned for the entire winter. Sooner or later the ukrainians advance enough to make the entire river a killing zone and retreat and support become impossible. From that point forward its a siege, ukrainians only have to wait for you to run out of food or ammo. You only do this if you know you can launch a counteroffensive that can relieve the city before that happens.
What they are doing is logical, evacuate the civilians, boobytrap the entire city, retreat and keep shelling anybody coming close enough. If the ukrainians actually move their troops to another place, you can always attack and retake the city.
Announcing the move serves to buy time for an orderly retreat, you hope they slow down and don't have to retreat under heavy fire.

[Osborne Russell]

Taking and holding are two different things. If you've taken but can't hold . . . retreat. See Rumars for details.

[TomF]

Reports are that the city is heavily mined, and that some Russian troops remain. Neither is entirely surprising.

[ERGR]

On a Swedish site I follow I read report upon report on battles in villages closer and closer to Kherson. DeepStateMap, which usually is accurate but with a delay, shows the Ukrainians 20 - 30 km from Dnipro. If Ukraine has moved even closer than that, all of Dnipro is now within 155 mm artillery range also with conventional ammunition, at least with base bleed. It'll take some time to secure the area enough to risk locating artillery there, but within a day Ukraine should be able to effectively close all Dnipro crossings except by swimming.
I think it's OK to celebrate tonight.
/Erik

[Tom Hunter]

Withdrawing makes sense if you believe that Russia needs time to train conscripts and cannot afford a high rate of casualties among those conscripts at this time.


Lately they have been losing poorly trained troops at a rate that will eliminate their ability to launch offensives in the future. Retreat fixes that problem. It also creates new problems, that is the nature of war.

[mizzenman]

Well, it surprises me if the russians do something reasonable for once. So fare their modus operandi has been clomsy and brutal

[Canoez]

Well, it surprises me if the russians do something reasonable for once. So fare their modus operandi has been clomsy and brutal

There may be a downside. It means that there is a field commander with both common sense and influence.

[ERGR]

Most reports (various tweets, many Russian are the origin) have 15 - 20 000 Russian soldiers on the west side of the Dnipro, with Ukrainian artillery constantly shelling river crossings since 8 hours back. Fighting going on inside Kherson city.
/Erik

[dutchpp]

The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, November 10.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...nt-november-10

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian forces steadily advanced in Kherson Oblast on November 10 as Russian forces conduct a withdrawal to the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River.
• The Russian withdrawal will take some time to complete, and fighting will continue throughout Kherson Oblast as Ukrainian troops advance and come up against pre-prepared Russian defensive lines, especially around Kherson City.
• ISW does not assess the fighting in Ukraine will halt or enter a stalemate due to winter weather, despite faulty Western assumptions.
• Ukraine holds the initiative and is in the process of securing a major victory in Kherson. A ceasefire would provide the Kremlin with the pause it desperately needs to reconstitute Russian forces.
• Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin is increasingly wrestling with St. Petersburg officials over expanding Wagner Group recruitment in the city.
• Ukrainian Air Force Command spokesperson Yuriy Ignat stated that Russian force will likely slow the pace of their campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure.
• Ukrainian forces continued to conduct counteroffensive operations on the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and in western Donetsk.
• Russian forces began constructing second line fortifications in Crimea and southern Ukraine.
• Russian citizens continue to oppose Russia’s war in Ukraine through protest, social media dissent, and desertions from the military.
• Russian mobilization efforts are channeling personnel to the Wagner group.
• Russian occupation officials are continuing efforts to erode Ukrainian national identity while mobilizing residents in Russian-occupied territories.