Ukraine

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

https://medium.com/@Stefan.Korshak/j...s-33e891679d32

Sorry I missed a few days.

[WX]

https://medium.com/@Stefan.Korshak/j...s-33e891679d32

Sorry I missed a few days.

Seems not long ago the media was full of reports on the weapons the West was giving to Ukraine. Reading Stefan's report Seems to show not a lot arriving.

[gypsie]

Worlds third nuclear power....

the conscript method sounds like something from blazing saddles; 'Boy, we're gonna give you a fair medical, and then we're gonna send you to the front'.

[WszystekPoTrochu]

https://medium.com/@Stefan.Korshak/j...s-33e891679d32

General Valery Zaluzhny, commander of Ukraine’s military, in a statement released by Ukraine’s Defense Ministry aid Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF), took the opportunity of a phone call with his US counterpart General Mark Milley to say UAF units in and around the city had fought off RF assaults, but that Ukrainians were facing an enemy “with a decisive advantage in artillery.” (...) Zaluzhny’s bottom line was that the Ukrainians are grateful but Ukraine needs roughly an order of magnitude more foreign weapons.

I've read that what USA pledged to Ukraine in terms of artillery shells would last, if they fired at same intensity as the enemy, for four days. Orcs can't keep the current rate of fire forever, but without intense foreign aid they'll be able to keep it long enough.

Seems not long ago the media was full of reports on the weapons the West was giving to Ukraine. Reading Stefan's report Seems to show not a lot arriving.

Especially from, khm, some countries I'm allegedly biased against
Apart from that stain on European integrity, most gifted systems require training. You can just drop a crate of NLAWs and have soldiers figure it out, you can gift an old SUV or a truck. Same doesn't apply for other equipment. Ukraine admitted their use of American artillery is suboptimal due to limited training capabilities.

[WX]

How long does it take to train a conscript to combat ready?
According to my son, 6 months for cannon fodder and at least two years for a soldier that knows how to get out of the way.

[WszystekPoTrochu]

2-3 months minimum to make an already formed soldier efficiently use new toys

it doesn't help that all the training is currently done outside Ukraine, as training forces left Ukraine in early February or so

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Pope Francis has just said that Russia “might have been provoked by NATO”.

I hope someone tells him the facts of life.

[StevenBauer]

Pope Francis has just said that Russia “might have been provoked by NATO”.

I hope someone tells him the facts of life.

Typical out of touch popeyness.

[Tom Hunter]

The US sent 150,000 rounds fairly early in the war. Ukraine says they are using 6,000 rounds a day across all their artillery. So its clearly not enough, but has lasted longer than 4 days. Also the gun barrels have a use limit, I forget the number, but when the US sent 100 guns and 150,000 rounds they were sending more rounds than the guns can fire before they break down.

I don't keep track of the total 155mm artillery sent, I know we sent about 100 guns, the French sent 12 but they are really hot mobile artillery, and Poland has sent a fair number of self propelled guns of high quality. It's still a lot less than 1,000.

One thing is certain, the Russian artillery losses have been climbing now that these weapons are in general use. It's going to take a long time to grind down the Russian artillery advantage, but it is happening. It's already happened to some degree with the tanks, though Russia is still sending more T80s, they are also sending T62s, which are really old.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

https://medium.com/@Stefan.Korshak/j...f-74e6c244e962

Includes some new artillery calculations.

[WszystekPoTrochu]

The US sent 150,000 rounds fairly early in the war. Ukraine says they are using 6,000 rounds a day across all their artillery. So its clearly not enough, but has lasted longer than 4 days. Also the gun barrels have a use limit, I forget the number, but when the US sent 100 guns and 150,000 rounds they were sending more rounds than the guns can fire before they break down.

I'll self quote:

if they fired at same intensity as the enemy, for four days.

The enemy fires tens of thousands shells per day... I'm not nitpicking, this disproportion is why Severodoneck will fall.

[johnw]

I'll self quote:


The enemy fires tens of thousands shells per day... I'm not nitpicking, this disproportion is why Severodoneck will fall.

They'll turn the whole city to rubble. They must be expending huge amounts of ammo. I wonder if they have a limit on quantity of ammo and life of barrels. It may not be just Ukraine that will be running out of ammo.

[Canoez]

There was an article that for every X shells that the Russians fired to achieve a task, the Ukrainians only needed to fire Y (a significantly smaller number) to achieve the same goal. Accuracy matters.

[ERGR]

The wear on a barrel depends on the charge used when firing. The life goes down fast when firing maximum charge to achieve maximum range. If the artillery can be moved to fire at closer range, using lower charges, the barrels will last much longer. Modern, fast deployed and re-deployed, artillery pieces can operate closer to the enemy because of the ability to shoot and scoot. We don't know the typical charge used by the Ukrainians so it's impossible to predict the wear.
I expect the Ukrainians will determine wear by measuring the barrels and by investigating for emerging cracks and not exchange barrels on schedule. They're in a war for their existence so I expect that they'll accept some risk when setting the threshold.

Another thought is that the Russians seem to use artillery indiscriminately, which means wasting ammunition. That works until you're out of ammunition. If you have much less ammunition you can achieve a lot by using what you have wisely. Smart ammunition that can be guided to hit is worth more than conventional dumb shells that you fire at area targets

/Erik

[WszystekPoTrochu]

That works until you're out of ammunition.
(..)
Smart ammunition that can be guided to hit is worth more than conventional dumb shells that you fire at area targets

Ammo use doesn't need to be sustainable, if you can sustain yours a bit longer than the enemy theirs it's enough to at least secure the front line until they agree to negotiate. Which seems to be the satisfying minimum for putin.

Smart ammo is exactly the problem, as far as what I've read: they don't have the capabilities to keep it on target, thus 'dumbing down' the guns. Correct me if I'm wrong, there's so many systems used there at the moment

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Perun on why the Russian Army seems so ill equipped and ill trained… it isn’t…

https://youtu.be/AKewF8_SiIs

[Landrith]

How long does it take to train a conscript to combat ready?
According to my son, 6 months for cannon fodder and at least two years for a soldier that knows how to get out of the way.

Even after a decade of just reserve component Infantry service, I could only ever pass a small number of stations on the Expert Infantryman badge course. Over additional years I got worse. These are just conventional core competency tasks, no high tech weapon systems all of which are their own sub military occupation specialty requiring much more training.

Once the fire and forget whizz bangs are used up, much of the Ukie Army will illustrate a shortness of developed team skills. At least they still have experienced artillerymen.

[epoxyboy]

They'll turn the whole city to rubble. They must be expending huge amounts of ammo. I wonder if they have a limit on quantity of ammo and life of barrels. It may not be just Ukraine that will be running out of ammo.

Well, that seems to be the way they operate. Who cares about accuracy, barrel wear, smart munitions, or even needing well trained gun crews if your MO is simply to indiscriminately target the next city in the firing line with the sole aim of rendering it completely uninhabitable? All you need to do is get a lot of lead in the air, in the general direction of the attack.
I bet the Russians have vast stockpiles of cold war era artillery pieces and ammunition, and have the capacity to manufacture dumb munitions as fast as they use it - it's about as low/no tech as it gets. Put another way, I don't see them running out of ammo, big guns, or people trained well enough to operate them any time soon.

Pete

[JayInOz]

A vast amount of the Russian munitions are fired blindly at non military targets. While doing enormous damage to infrastructure, it has very little effect on the Ukrainian military. The Ukrainians on the other hand are using all of their available munitions to target Russian military personnel and equipment- and doing it very well. We keep them supplied and they'll keep fighting effectively. I do wish someone in Russia would step out of the shadows and fire a short burst into little Vladimir though. JayInOz

[skuthorp]

Al very WW1, and earlier where conquered cities were razed and the population 'put to the sword.

[George.]

Ukraine would not want to use as much ammo as the Russians even if it was available. The Russians use so much ammo because they shell cities into rubble so that their low-morale troops can occupy them. The Ukrainians won't want to do that to liberate cities.

Russia has thousands of targets, i.e., buildings and defensive positions. Ukraine has only hundreds, i.e. Russian artillery positions.

[Canoez]

I think the use of drones in this conflict by artillery teams and/or their forward observers has been a game changer - primarily for Ukraine as they have access to a greater number of drones.

Also, the use of small armed drones made in Ukraine to drop munitions on Russian troops and equipment is certainly a twist.

[johnw]

The problem for the Ukrainians is that they are running out of the Soviet-era ammo, and the only country that makes new ammo that fits those guns is Russia. Once they run out, many of their artillery pieces will become useless. That's why they need a lot more artillery and a lot more ammo.

[Rumars]

The problem for the Ukrainians is that they are running out of the Soviet-era ammo, and the only country that makes new ammo that fits those guns is Russia. Once they run out, many of their artillery pieces will become useless. That's why they need a lot more artillery and a lot more ammo.

Not actually true, many countries make guns and ammo in those calibers, including all Nato members wich are direct neighbors. Not to mention Ukraine itself, wich also developed its own smart munitions in those calibers. The real problem is that everything truely modern is available only in very small quantities, regardless of who made it.
What they want is more modern kit to give them an advantage on the field. Right now they can hold the line and even slowly grind the enemy down, but it's costing them dearly, and they would very much like it to be different.

[johnw]

Not actually true, many countries make guns and ammo in those calibers, including all Nato members wich are direct neighbors. Not to mention Ukraine itself, wich also developed its own smart munitions in those calibers. The real problem is that everything truely modern is available only in very small quantities, regardless of who made it.
What they want is more modern kit to give them an advantage on the field. Right now they can hold the line and even slowly grind the enemy down, but it's costing them dearly, and they would very much like it to be different.

Thanks for the correction. How many fewer shells do they need with modern artillery compared to the old stuff?

[Rumars]

I'm sure someone has exact data for their specific doctrine, but it's not me. What I can say is that precision guided munitions are a big advantage, and while most can be fired from older artillery pieces, the new self propelled guns give you a lot of added flexibility. To give you an idea, imagine the precision of a modern tank gun at ranges the tank can't even see you. Mobility is not quite on par with a tank, but it doesn't have to be. With towed artillery the focus is weight reduction.

[StevenBauer]

This map helped me to understand the size of the front line/occupied territories in Ukraine:

BB89ECB8-4980-402A-833A-229B94DE1B09.jpg

No wonder they need more weaponry..

[JayInOz]

So... Russia's taken Kentucky. Damn. JayInOz

[Vadim 68]

Refuge in audacity doesn't work on me,......

Interesting word, audacity.

Just what is the position of entitlement you believe you inhabit when you think you can slur someone, and then expect to illicit answers from them?

Not a productive way to debate anything.

Same goes to those whose who decide to throw racial slurs without any evidence of what nation i was born in. Such a childish level of interaction.

[WX]

Interesting word, audacity.

Just what is the position of entitlement you believe you inhabit when you think you can slur someone, and then expect to illicit answers from them?

Not a productive way to debate anything.

Same goes to those whose who decide to throw racial slurs without any evidence of what nation i was born in. Such a childish level of interaction.

So, what is your country?

[Vadim 68]

Here we go again. Supposedly enlightened & intelligent people wanting someone they disagree with shut down or removed. Maybe not everyone here want an echo chamber & maybe those who do should use the ignore list.

I'll joint Lew in asking Vadim to share his story - I'd like to hear it.

Sorry, but this is not the place. This is a thread about Ukraine. There are other people with more interesting life stories. This seems to be a thread discussing the best weapons to send in order to create more carnage, by those never clearing up mess.

As an aside for those who obviously do not know, there are good people on both sides, Russia and Ukraine, who recover the bodies of dead, including children, and no one EVER asks what side of a line they were born on, or what flag they may have waved at school as a reason not to do the job.

I find it hard to find the words, so will end with a quote i read.

"I have limited amount of time left on this planet and im not about to spend it being a watered down version of myself, just so people can like me"

"small minds talk about other people..."

[SKIP KILPATRICK]

So... Russia's taken Kentucky. Damn. JayInOz

Some time ago!

[Vadim 68]

So, what is your country?

Does it really matter?

Do you define people as to what kind of human being they are, based on where they were born?

It seems, especially here, that nationality is used to pigeon-hole people for the need to ridicule or abuse.

If it helps anyone sleep at night, and for the record, i was not born in Russia or Ukraine. Its irrelevant.

A doctor did say, with the amount of Ukrainian blood transfused into me, i was "almost" a Ukrainian. Let humour be the last thing to die.

[George.]

This seems to be a thread discussing the best weapons to send in order to create more carnage

The best weapons to stop the carnage, you mean. It is Russia creating carnage by besieging cities with artillery and forcing ill-trained conscripts to invade their neighbor.

[Vadim 68]

The best weapons to stop the carnage, you mean. It is Russia creating carnage by besieging cities with artillery and forcing ill-trained conscripts to invade their neighbor.

Does this mean you side with those that say the best way to solve gun crime, is good guys with guns?

The OSCE has been in East Ukraine since 2014, and have their reports of Ukraine shelling civilian buildings. I am not asking you to take my word for it, look at their reports.

More guns wont fix this suffering for the people, just as throwing gasoline on a fire does not help; i assume you would use water if it was your own house that was burning?