Ukraine

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Interesting stuff here^.

I’m inclined to think “that’s pretty much it for the Russian Spring Offensive”.

[Gerarddm]

#10,408: If all they have lost is 35,000 KIA, this war is going to go on and on. When the Ukrainians couldn't trap the Russkies in Kherson they missed the chance of taking 20,000-40,000 Russians off the board.

The Bakhmut tactic by the Ukrainians, is, I think, a long game. By stubbornly bleeding the Russians at Bakhmut, they help insure that any future Russians they encounter during their ( Ukrainian ) counteroffensive will be newer, less trained and equipped, i.e. cannon fodder.

[John Smith]

I still see this as eventually making Ukraine a chunk of real estate NO one can live on. Putin will see that as a victory.

[dutchpp]

I don't think so John, but it will take a lot of work that's for sure.

Cologne 1945
Koeln_1945_rework2.jpg
Cologne 1955, I couldn't find a picture from the same direction.
koln 1955.jpg
Cologne 2023 from almost the same direction as 1955.
2023.jpg

[LeeG]

Interesting stuff here^.

I’m inclined to think “that’s pretty much it for the Russian Spring Offensive”.

I hope so.

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Perun on the Russian winter offensive:

https://youtu.be/qPhycuLAtaw

[WszystekPoTrochu]

The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, March 18.

• BBC and Russian opposition news outlet Mediazona estimated that Russian forces have suffered at least 35,000 total deaths and 157,000 total casualties.

This is in stark contrast with numbers we're used to seeing. UA assesses enemy deaths alone at over 150k. Most NATO assessments go around 200-300k of dead and wounded combined.
Checked the source: 157k relates to dead and gravely wounded, 17k to KIA confirmed in openly available sources only; 35k KIA estimated by cemetery records, and the article claims it's the most conservative minimum.

It was reported many times that the invaders abuse the statistics, in many ways. Given what passes for conservative numbers, I find the NATO assessment of 200-300k aggressors permanently removed from the battlefields credible.

[JayInOz]

Russian losses right now are estimated to be upwards of 1,500 a day. Ukraines figures may be high, but probably still a lot more Russians dead than 35,000. And the Russians have lied from day one about casualties, and many of the dead aren't even officially on the books as combatants so not included in the count.

[Landrith]

The Bakhmut tactic by the Ukrainians, is, I think, a long game. By stubbornly bleeding the Russians at Bakhmut, they help insure that any future Russians they encounter during their ( Ukrainian ) counteroffensive will be newer, less trained and equipped, i.e. cannon fodder.

This looked like a desperate opportunity for Ukraine to overcome being restricted from adequately resupply of the Eastern front trough rail and road transport, and from inadequate ammunition from US and NATO. I said they can compete in attrition by getting the Russians to close with them.

I am hearing different numbers though, than this forum is citing. From the American Civil War onward, defenders in a built up area or prepared defensive positions should have an advantage. I thought it would be 3 to 1. The over match of Russian artillery must have altered that rule, even inverted it.

I still won't criticize the Ukrainian decision to keep contesting Bakhmut, because with US support beginning to ebb this weekend, trying to pull back to another city and its destruction with likely even less material coming from the US and Europe is not a good thing to doe either.

[Garth Jones]

This looked like a desperate opportunity for Ukraine to overcome being restricted from adequately resupply of the Eastern front trough rail and road transport, and from inadequate ammunition from US and NATO. I said they can compete in attrition by getting the Russians to close with them.

I am hearing different numbers though, than this forum is citing. From the American Civil War onward, defenders in a built up area or prepared defensive positions should have an advantage. I thought it would be 3 to 1. The over match of Russian artillery must have altered that rule, even inverted it.

I still won't criticize the Ukrainian decision to keep contesting Bakhmut, because with US support beginning to ebb this weekend, trying to pull back to another city and its destruction with likely even less material coming from the US and Europe is not a good thing to doe either.

What different numbers? Could you provide a reference or link? All the sources generally cited in this forum (The Ukranians, the UK intelligence services, the US, etc. etc.) vary but they generally agree that the RF military has lost a huge number of men and much more men and equipment than the UAF. Also, recent reports from Bakmut (see Stephan Korshak and others) suggest that at least in that area, the UAF has achieved dominance or a least parity in artillery.

As for ammo, the Ukrainians are starting to produce their own tank rounds and the Europeans just announced a new large effort to supply artillery shells. Also, I don't see US support ebbing dramatically, at least not yet. Sure, Ron DeSantis is running his mouth, trying to make noise for his base, but even most Republicans are still voicing support for Ukraine.

At this point it does not look like the RF can mount any sort of coordinated big offensive. They have lost too much modern equipment, have few well trained troops, and no apparent ability for combined arms. What remains to be seen is if the UAF can do one and push the Russians back significantly. They supposedly have several brigades of NATO trained troops and they do have an increasing amount (but possibly not enough) of modern gear.

[Nicholas Carey]

#10,408: If all they have lost is 35,000 KIA, this war is going to go on and on. When the Ukrainians couldn't trap the Russkies in Kherson they missed the chance of taking 20,000-40,000 Russians off the board.

The Bakhmut tactic by the Ukrainians, is, I think, a long game. By stubbornly bleeding the Russians at Bakhmut, they help insure that any future Russians they encounter during their ( Ukrainian ) counteroffensive will be newer, less trained and equipped, i.e. cannon fodder.

And if the future Russians aren't green cannon fodder, their history of action versus Ukraine doesn't exactly do much as a morale lifter.

[Nicholas Carey]

I don't think so John, but it will take a lot of work that's for sure.

Cologne 1945
Koeln_1945_rework2.jpg
Cologne 1955, I couldn't find a picture from the same direction.
koln 1955.jpg
Cologne 2023 from almost the same direction as 1955.
2023.jpg

My dad talked about marching through Köln during the war. Said it was creepy - the empty burned out husks of buildings and the silence.

[Landrith]

Also, I don't see US support ebbing dramatically, at least not yet. Sure, Ron DeSantis is running his mouth, trying to make noise for his base, but even most Republicans are still voicing support for Ukraine.

My sources never stand muster in this forum. That is why I don't cite the numbers I have heard. Our government has worker bees that can tell their higher ups exactly what is happening on the ground. For an earlier example, I remember General Shinseki testifying before the Iraq invasion. https://www.dissentmagazine.org/onli...from-the-start I am not a Shinseki fan, but he knew the military science of occupation. He was right, but the politics in the Pentagon of the time didn't want the information. I gather this coming week is when US news sources will be printing stories showing a more sober appraisal of Ukraine's chances. Not to correct the record, but to lay the groundwork for a policy shift. Ukraine's success in the information war has won over the new House majority, but the administrative branch agencies do not take their direction from a GOP Congress.

The Pentagon is not looking at Ukraine's internal munitions production, they are instead looking at Russia's continuing full time production after more than a year and looking at US munitions stocks. Generals are not of the "lets dig deeper and share more" mentality.

[JayInOz]

America has spent billions upon billions of dollars over decades preparing for a possible war with Russia. Now Ukraine is fighting the war and it's costing America about five percent of it's annual defence budget. The best return on spending they could hope for. Probably run out of crayons trying to explain it to the republicans, but worth a shot. The E.U., NATO and the west will come out of this stronger than ever with new member states and a number of countries trying to get out from under Russian influence while they have the chance. Russia will be the basket case when the war is over, not Ukraine. Just have to hope China, Iran and North Korea don't do anything too stupid while they think they see an opening. JayInOz

[WX]

[dutchpp]

The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, March 19.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...-march-19-2023

Key inflections in ongoing military operations on March 19:

• Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.[28]
• Russian forces likely secured marginal gains near Bohdanivka (6km northwest of Bakhmut) amidst continued Russian offensive operations in and around Bakhmut.[29]
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the outskirts of Donetsk City and may have advanced towards Berdychi, about 10km northwest of Avdiivka.[30]
• Russian forces continued erecting defensive fortifications throughout southern Ukraine.[31]
• Unknown actors killed a Russian occupation Ministry of Internal Affairs Patrol Service platoon commander with a car bomb in occupied Kherson Oblast.[32] Ukrainian media hypothesized that the attack may have been a partisan attack or a result of Russian infighting.[33]
• Russian federal communication supervisor Roskomnadzor blocked a website that helped Russians escape mobilization in continued crackdowns against resistance to mobilization.[34]

[dutchpp]

And the different Putin varieties.
kloon.jpg

[Gerarddm]

^ The way to detect a body double is by the ears.

[Landrith]

^ The way to detect a body double is by the ears.

Don't say that. Someone might be looking at Biden pictures over the years!

I don't think the current Putin is the guy the CIA selected and helped to lead Russia. I see him more as an avatar or spokesperson for a ruling cartel of persons in the Russian military and the industries retaken from the perestroika oligarchs. That is why I have argued in this thread that removing Putin won't change things and that the people around him can't be bribed to take him out of power. He is just the face of the ruling group who has wildly profited from the sanctions and increased their power. Just like the sanctions in Iran did for their rulers.

[Peerie Maa]

And the different Putin varieties.
kloon.jpg

The profile of the nose looks different as well.

[sandtown]

. The best return on spending they could hope for.. JayInOz

A bloody war is a good "return on investment"?

You must have shares of stock in the war mongering companies.

[heimlaga]

A bloody war is a good "return on investment"?

You must have shares of stock in the war mongering companies.

You must have missunderstood what he wrote. He refered to the least bloody and least expensive way to run the inevitable war against Russia.

[skuthorp]

We are a silly species, on one hand we have Ukraine and a de-fcto European war, climate change and religiosity.
And on the other we can do this…….

[Andrew Craig-Bennett]

Stefan Korshak’s report just now:

https://medium.com/@Stefan.Korshak/m...g-1fc6436a8eaf

[Nicholas Carey]

^ The way to detect a body double is by the ears.

That's why the photo taken for one's green card used to be required to be a 3/4 view with the ear clearly visible. They seem to have changed the requirements these days, though - same requirements as a passport photo.

[Nicholas Carey]

The profile of the nose looks different as well.

Hairline is different, too.

[Lew Barrett]

Hairline is different, too.

That's the most obvious physical thing to me. The difference between Moscow and Mariupol is clear. Although what a low res thing the Mariupol snapshot is and the chins are weird. Then again, the whole idea of a whirlwind tour of a bombed out, deserted city...in the night...is its own absurdity. Who did he see and what did they discuss at 3AM? The plumbing?

[JayInOz]

China peace plan rejected- basically stop fighting and give Russia the disputed territories. Not a chance. https://youtu.be/nDYZUH_fOO8 JayInOz

[dutchpp]

The ISW Russian offensive campaign assessment, March 20.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...-march-20-2023

Key Takeaways

• Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow and offered a more reserved vision for Russian-Chinese relations than Putin likely desires.
• Putin is likely increasing his attempts to rally the rest of the world against the West, although it remains unlikely that he will achieve decisive effects in this effort.
• Wagner Group Financier Yevgeny Prigozhin appears to maintain powerful political leverage and regional connections despite some officials’ attempts to distance themselves. Russian authorities are likely unsure of how to redefine Wagner’s new role following Prigozhin’s overextension of Wagner resources and support.
• The Russian information space continues to respond to the International Criminal Court (ICC)’s issuance of arrest warrants for Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Commissioner on Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova with ire and anxiety.
• Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Spokesperson Andriy Yusov stated that the frequency of large Russian missile attacks has decreased.
• Russia requested that the UN Security Council discuss Israeli airstrikes in Syria possibly in retaliation for Israel’s approval of export licenses for anti-drone jamming systems for Ukraine.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian and Russian forces conducted offensive operations northeast of Kupyansk.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations near Svatove and Kreminna.
• Russian forces continued making advances in and around Bakhmut.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City frontline and made marginal gains near Avdiivka.
• Russian sources claim that Russian forces are building up defensive fortifications and repelled Ukrainian reconnaissance-in-force operations in Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russian sources accused unknown actors of planting a bomb that exploded near a gas pipeline in occupied Simferopol, Crimea.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged Russian difficulties obtaining components for high-tech industrial production.
• Ukrainian partisans killed Russian-appointed head of the Kherson Oblast pre-detention center Serhii Moskalenko with an improvised explosive device on March 17.

[lupussonic]

Has anyone any information on the efforts to burst through the information barriers and doublespeak of the RF? I find it incredible what is reported to be coming out of Putin's mouth, most recently about his take on the Chinese peace plan, but it has been prevalent throughout this conflict. I think if truth could get through to the masses in Russia it would go a long way to possible dissent and a change in direction.

[Nicholas Carey]

Has anyone any information on the efforts to burst through the information barriers and doublespeak of the RF? I find it incredible what is reported to be coming out of Putin's mouth, most recently about his take on the Chinese peace plan, but it has been prevalent throughout this conflict. I think if truth could get through to the masses in Russia it would go a long way to possible dissent and a change in direction.

Used to be that people had shortwave radios, and there was BBC World Service, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Voice of America, Deutsche Welle, Radio France (and probably others), all broadcasting in different languages around the world.

RFE/RL and VOA still broadcast over shortwave. I believe Radio France does so as well. BBC World Service shut down shortwave operations some years back, but it looks like they've resurrected it for Ukraine: https://www.tpr.org/news/2022-03-12/...r-torn-ukraine

But not many people have shortwave radios at home any more. And it's easy to block/track Internet traffic, unless people are savvy enough to set up a VPN or configure Tor (The Onion Router).

In many ways, people living under the thumb of authoritarian regimes (Russia, China, North Korea, ...) are/can be more easily cut off from honest information regarding things that the government doesn't want them to hear about, than during the Cold War.

[WszystekPoTrochu]

At this point, putin managed to deliver one part of the "bring ussr back" promise: totalitarianism.

Reaching the masses won't be easy, and even if you do you'll most likely just broadcast an open secret. It's not lack of knowledge that keeps the masses silent.

[lupussonic]

It's not lack of knowledge that keeps the masses silent.

Yes, agreed. But Putin is reported to be spouting reverse truths..otherwise known as lies; Ukraine de-nazification, they started it, RF must defend itself, the 'West' is not ready for the Chinese peace plan etc. I do not implicitly trust Western news sources at the best of times, but that is what he is reported as feeding his nation for a narrative of why he needs one or two generations of men to die for him. There must be attempts to get through to the RF populace in some form with facts surely.

[SKIP KILPATRICK]

Interesting... and sad!

[gypsie]

At this point, putin managed to deliver one part of the "bring ussr back" promise: totalitarianism.

Reaching the masses won't be easy, and even if you do you'll most likely just broadcast an open secret. It's not lack of knowledge that keeps the masses silent.

Case in point;