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Thread: Ukraine

  1. #5076
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    I imagine a smaller explosive inside a pipeline that has filled with water might cause greater damage over more of the line.

  2. #5077
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    So Erik, is "visiting my mother in Lapland" code for visiting an undersea pipeline?
    It wasn't my fault that it exploded, at least mostly not my fault.
    /Erik

  3. #5078
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Putin is threatening to annex part of Ukraine. I suspect that the whole world will simply ignore that attempt as corrupt and Ukraine will continue to push Russia out of the country.

    Putin threatens to use nukes. That gets real bad fast.

    Putin is apparently dying?

    Is this a lesson in appeasement? We try so hard to not upset Russia and China even to the point we have this absurd policy on Taiwan. Where does it get us?
    "Where you live in the world should not determine whether you live in the world." - Bono

    "Live in such a way that you would not be ashamed to sell your parrot to the town gossip." - Will Rogers

    "Those are my principles, and if you don't like them... well, I have others." - Groucho Marx

  4. #5079
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Article re possibiliteis if Putim is replaced peacefully by internal movement………..

    https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...west-negotiate

  5. #5080
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    Default Re: Ukraine


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  7. #5082
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    Default Ukraine

    From Forbes:

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...-be-right-now/

    Lyman, A Supply Hub In Eastern Ukraine, Is The Last Place A Russian Soldier Wants To Be Right Now

    The Oskil River, running north to south from Russia all the way to the Donets River in eastern Ukraine, is a natural defensive barrier.

    So it made sense that, when a dozen eager Ukrainian brigades punched through fragile Russian lines outside the free city of Kharkiv the first week of September, the Russians retreated 30 miles east across the river.

    If the Russian army weren't exhausted from seven months of combat against an increasingly inventive and determined foe - and if the Kremlin hadn't raided units in the east in order to reinforce the south, where a second Ukrainian counteroffensive also is underway - the Oskil defensive line might've held.

    It didn't. Now a key Russian supply hub is in danger farther to the south: the town of Lyman.

    After crossing the Oskil, the Ukrainians kept right on pushing. Today, they hold at least five bridgeheads on the east side of the river.

    Yes, the Kremlin has announced a nationwide mobilization and chaotically is drafting into army service potentially 300,000 men. No, these draftees won't arrive in time - or, given the utter lack of training, in any condition - to save the Russian position east of the Oskil.

    And that has huge implications for Russia's hold on the northern part of Luhansk Oblast, which since 2014 has been under the control of pro-Russian separatists - and which now is subject to a sham "referendum" that purports to make the oblast officially part of Russia.

    The Ukrainians are on the move across eastern Ukraine. Three prongs of their counteroffensive are poised to surround and cut off the Russian garrison in Lyman, a key railway hub through which rolls much of the supply for the Russian army in the east.

    Russian forces east of Kharkiv now are falling back to a new defensive line threading a valley running from the town of Svatove in the north to Kremmina in the south, 25 miles away. A valley, surrounded on both sides by high ground, isn't exactly a strong position for any defender.

    The Russian air force in recent days has dialed up its sortie rate in the east in a desperate bid to save the beleaguered Russian ground forces, but stiff Ukrainian air-defenses have blunted the impact of these air ops. The Ukrainians shot down four Russian jets on Saturday alone.

    The likeliest question now isn't whether the Ukrainians capture Lyman, but when. Separate Ukrainian forces are rolling north across the Donets from positions east of Lyman, north across the same river from positions west of Lyman and east across the Oskil from positions north of Lyman.

    The northern gambit might be the most catastrophic for the Russians, as it's a wide enough envelopment that it could cut off several battalions with thousands of troops. Or even more troops if the Kremlin manages to shove reinforcements into the area.

    Mike Martin, a fellow at the Department of War Studies at King's College in London, is betting on the latter. "Lyman looks like the old bait-and-switch," he tweeted. "Drive flanks north and east of Lyman, causing the Russians to reinforce this critical railroad junction. Then drive a much bigger encircling movement to trap the whole lot."
    Last edited by Nicholas Carey; 09-28-2022 at 12:52 AM.
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  8. #5083
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    #2009
    Artists and street musicians won't do the Russians much good…….

  9. #5084
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Some good points on the benefits of encouraging and supporting all those "cowards" to leave Russia.


    Pete
    The Ignore feature, lowering blood pressure since 1862. Ahhhhhhh.

  10. #5085
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    No, these draftees won't arrive in time - or, given the utter lack of training, in any condition - to save the Russian position east of the Oskil.
    there are strong indications it's the latter, unless Ukraine falsified stuff of course
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  11. #5086
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    The pipelines in the Baltic exploded the same day that a new gas pipeline was opened between Norway and Poland. Coincidence? You decide for yourself, but the general sentiment around here is that this is the Ruskies way of demonstrating their capability to sabotage gas infrastructure. Which should come as no great surprise. They have a specialized branch in their Navy that has developed and used clandestine mini subs for decades, and none of that activity ended with the cold war.

    Norway is now the single largest supplier of natural gas to the European market. Which is all transported in pipelines on the bottom of the North Sea. There are lots and lots of these pipelines down there. It will not be an easy task to protect it all.

    Bundin er bátleysur maður

  12. #5087
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    If I wanted to blow up a subsea pipeline, thinking about it, I'd use a pig. I'd have to have access to one end of it of course.

  13. #5088
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Oyvind Snibsoer View Post
    The pipelines in the Baltic exploded the same day that a new gas pipeline was opened between Norway and Poland. Coincidence? You decide for yourself, but the general sentiment around here is that this is the Ruskies way of demonstrating their capability to sabotage gas infrastructure.
    It is worth stressing that the sabotage happened on Danish waters, which is where Baltic Pipe also runs. If that's their job, which seems mad but likely, picking areas around Bornholm would be their style.

    A russian trawler already damaged a fiber optic connection between Norway and Svalbard earlier this year. British military also warned about the damage risks to communication cables under the Atlantic. In that context, sabotaging own pipelines would send a message of critical infrastructure no longer being outside their scope. The pattern of starting small (Svalbard), probing for reaction, waving the gun, probing for reaction, then escalating when there's little response is indeed very orcish. If you think about the hefty fines that gazprom would need to pay to Germany for not sending gas, a "terrorist attack" voiding fines might even be a way to save money, no?

    Such an act would make them shift on the mad <--> evil scale in direction that makes me uncomfortable.
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  14. #5089
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by lupussonic View Post
    If I wanted to blow up a subsea pipeline, thinking about it, I'd use a pig. I'd have to have access to one end of it of course.
    If pictures ever get released, it should be obvious whether external or an internal charge was used. External widens the culpability field.

  15. #5090
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    To be honest, blowing up the pipelines was probably not a very great sacrifice to the Russians. There's very little chance gas will ever flow through those pipes again even after the war in Ukraine is over. Disruptions of the gas flow from Norway, however, could plunge Europe into a very cold and unpleasant darkness this winter.
    Bundin er bátleysur maður

  16. #5091
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by lupussonic View Post
    If I wanted to blow up a subsea pipeline, thinking about it, I'd use a pig. I'd have to have access to one end of it of course.
    We agree.

    (This doesn’t happen every day, but I think both of us have had something to do with gas pipelines in the past).
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  17. #5092
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Oyvind Snibsoer View Post
    To be honest, blowing up the pipelines was probably not a very great sacrifice to the Russians. There's very little chance gas will ever flow through those pipes again even after the war in Ukraine is over. Disruptions of the gas flow from Norway, however, could plunge Europe into a very cold and unpleasant darkness this winter.
    Agreed.
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  18. #5093
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Let Russia isolate herself

    see how that goes

    Worked so well before
    If Russia wins, there will be no Ukraine; if Ukraine wins, there will be a new Russia.

    -- Dmytro Kuleba, Foreign Minister of Ukraine

  19. #5094
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by lupussonic View Post
    If I wanted to blow up a subsea pipeline, thinking about it, I'd use a pig. I'd have to have access to one end of it of course.
    Question: how would the pig be moved hundreds of miles without gas product flowing to push it along?

    Question: Inserting a pig requires special procedures at the point of insertion that would attract some attention; it would be hard to do it clandestinely. How can someone get a pig inserted at Russia's end without the cooperation of Gazprom?
    Will

  20. #5095
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by willmarsh3 View Post
    Question: how would the pig be moved hundreds of miles without gas product flowing to push it along?
    I'm not an expert on pigging, but intelligent pigs can do all sorts of things these days, inspection, cleaning etc. Some are pushed by flow, others are motorised.

    Quote Originally Posted by willmarsh3 View Post
    How can someone get a pig inserted at Russia's end without the cooperation of Gazprom?
    Exactly.

  21. #5096
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Oyvind Snibsoer View Post
    To be honest, blowing up the pipelines was probably not a very great sacrifice to the Russians. There's very little chance gas will ever flow through those pipes again even after the war in Ukraine is over. Disruptions of the gas flow from Norway, however, could plunge Europe into a very cold and unpleasant darkness this winter.
    Quote Originally Posted by Andrew Craig-Bennett View Post
    We agree.

    (This doesn’t happen every day, but I think both of us have had something to do with gas pipelines in the past).
    Quote Originally Posted by Andrew Craig-Bennett View Post
    Agreed.
    Quote Originally Posted by Vadim 68 View Post
    If pictures ever get released, it should be obvious whether external or an internal charge was used. External widens the culpability field.
    If the damage is from an internal charge, the source will be obvious. If the damage was from an external source, it answers very little unless there is other corroborating evidence - which should exist.
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
    -William A. Ward



  22. #5097
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    What is the range on a motorized pig pushing through pressurized natural gas that isn't flowing?
    Will

  23. #5098
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Can't post it here, but worth a watch:

    https://twitter.com/R82938886/status...2BuIx82IuVAC8w

    It speaks volumes about the Russian mindset on minorities.
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
    -William A. Ward



  24. #5099
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Also: Russia to cut remaining gas supplies to Europe through Ukraine. Seems to me the efforts to cut European energy supply are clear - contracts be damned.
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
    -William A. Ward



  25. #5100
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Canoez View Post
    Also: Russia to cut remaining gas supplies to Europe through Ukraine. Seems to me the efforts to cut European energy supply are clear - contracts be damned.
    early in this thread, i argued that strategically, it made sense for europe to continue to buy russia's energy, and for russia to shut off the supply. not the other way around. that it was not "aiding the enemy" to buy his gas. on the contrary, he was aiding his enemy.

    now, here we are. this is putin's best card to play. the kind that leads to world wars.

  26. #5101
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Canoez View Post
    It speaks volumes about the Russian mindset on minorities.
    You do know these are fake, right?
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  27. #5102
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    So after the 'referendum votes' (yeah, right ) Russia is now claiming they're annexing parts of eastern Ukraine, and that they'll just be defending the motherland if anyone tries to take them back. Whoopee.
    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations,
    for nature cannot be fooled."

    Richard Feynman

  28. #5103
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by WszystekPoTrochu View Post
    You do know these are fake, right?
    Yes.
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
    -William A. Ward



  29. #5104
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Keith Wilson View Post
    So after the 'referendum votes' (yeah, right ) Russia is now claiming they're annexing parts of eastern Ukraine, and that they'll just be defending the motherland if anyone tries to take them back. Whoopee.
    1) I don't think Ukraine 'recognizes' this annexation and

    2) neither do the russian soldiers tasked with 'defending'.
    There's a lot of things they didn't tell me when I signed on with this outfit....

  30. #5105
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    "I hereby claim this land of the Indies in perpetuity, in their right forever, the Most Catholic Majesties of Castile. Gimme the flag, make it official."

    We've been through this. It was a drag.
    If Russia wins, there will be no Ukraine; if Ukraine wins, there will be a new Russia.

    -- Dmytro Kuleba, Foreign Minister of Ukraine

  31. #5106
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Sabotaging someone elses pipeline is an act of war, as would closing the Baltic straights to any ship bound for, or coming from, a Russian port be. We'll see what rules Russia prefers.
    /Erik

  32. #5107
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Yup.

    But then - 'the killings began'.

    Good book.
    There's a lot of things they didn't tell me when I signed on with this outfit....

  33. #5108
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Osborne Russell View Post
    Let Russia isolate herself

    see how that goes

    Worked so well before
    The energy interdependence of Europe with the world market doesn’t make that as easy a lesson as it is for you and I

  34. #5109
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by George Jung View Post
    1) I don't think Ukraine 'recognizes' this annexation, and
    2) neither do the Russian soldiers tasked with 'defending'.
    Oh, it's total bullsh!t - but the Russian leaders might think it gives them some justification, and it might affect what they do.
    "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations,
    for nature cannot be fooled."

    Richard Feynman

  35. #5110
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    like snap/crackle/nuke?

    Yeah. I thought of that. Quite the narrow line they're running.
    There's a lot of things they didn't tell me when I signed on with this outfit....

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