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Thread: Ukraine

  1. #4796
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by sandtown View Post
    It was not me but Gen Galvin AT THAT TIME who argued for a Marshall Plan for Russia in the early 1990's. I was proud then, and remain proud, to be naive in that way.

    And the US Blob had a LOT to do with keeping Yeltsin in power - it may have been the most fraught action taken by the US during the Clinton years.

    And of course that led to Putin
    I take it from your reply that you believe Yeltsin’s successor, V.V.Putin, was chosen in Virginia? A neat trick they should duplicate again then. I don’t think you’re quite so naive about how Russian succession is organized, just the theory you are promoting here. How to explain Putin’s 20 plus years at the helm? A plot hatched in Langley, perhaps.
    Last edited by Lew Barrett; 09-21-2022 at 08:49 AM.
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  2. #4797
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    In addition to the partial mobilization, Putin also noted that he's willing to use nukes to defend an attack on Russia.

    The "referendums" being hastily organized in occupied Ukrainian territory will be used to officially add these to the claimed contiguous territory of Russia. The threat in Putin's speech is thus to use tactical nukes should Russia be forced into retreat from the Ukrainian territory they now occupy.

    That is, he doesn't think for a moment that anyone wants to capture Moscow, but IMO he's setting up a "compromise." After "negotiations" Russia might retreat from the territory they've occupied recently, but I think Putin's warning that Russia will not leave the naval base at Sebastopol. In his view, Crimea is not negotiable.

    My guess is that Putin (accurately) guesses that should Russia be pushed out of Crimea and lose that base on the Black Sea, he'll face a coup. And probably be killed.
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

  3. #4798
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by TomF View Post
    In addition to the partial mobilization, Putin also noted that he's willing to use nukes to defend an attack on Russia.

    The "referendums" being hastily organized in occupied Ukrainian territory will be used to officially add these to the claimed contiguous territory of Russia. The threat in Putin's speech is thus to use tactical nukes should Russia be forced into retreat from the Ukrainian territory they now occupy.

    That is, he doesn't think for a moment that anyone wants to capture Moscow, but IMO he's setting up a "compromise." After "negotiations" Russia might retreat from the territory they've occupied recently, but I think Putin's warning that Russia will not leave the naval base at Sebastopol. In his view, Crimea is not negotiable.

    My guess is that Putin (accurately) guesses that should Russia be pushed out of Crimea and lose that base on the Black Sea, he'll face a coup. And probably be killed.
    Considering the range of Ukrainian missiles, I think maintaining that naval base in Crimea is untenable if the Ukrainians wish to make it so.
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
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  4. #4799
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    I heard an interview with an American general recently who said that as Ukraine re-took land adjacent, it looked to him like it was merely a matter of time until Crimea fell again to Ukraine. Exactly because the long range missiles and etc. enable it.

    Ukrainian tactics, training, and will, combined with the West's weaponry, make it close to inevitable - unless Russia was willing to use tactical nukes, and entirely change the conflict.

    As I've said before, I think it more likely that Putin will seek to implement a "scalable" nuclear response. They're already well into the 1st increment - threatening Ukrainian nuclear plants, and doing damage to and near them which does not yet cause radioactive emissions. The 2nd increment will be shelling one or more of those power plants, using radiation as a weapon.

    Deploying (and then using) tactical nukes to deny the retaking of Crimea will be the next step, IMO. Which will be delayed as long as possible, because of the serious risk of an escalation into a strategic nuke exchange. There's no way that NATO, and Biden in particular, will allow the use of tactical nukes to go unanswered.
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

  5. #4800
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by TomF View Post
    I heard an interview with an American general recently who said that as Ukraine re-took land adjacent, it looked to him like it was merely a matter of time until Crimea fell again to Ukraine. Exactly because the long range missiles and etc. enable it.

    Ukrainian tactics, training, and will, combined with the West's weaponry, make it close to inevitable - unless Russia was willing to use tactical nukes, and entirely change the conflict.

    As I've said before, I think it more likely that Putin will seek to implement a "scalable" nuclear response. They're already well into the 1st increment - threatening Ukrainian nuclear plants, and doing damage to and near them which does not yet cause radioactive emissions. The 2nd increment will be shelling one or more of those power plants, using radiation as a weapon.

    Deploying (and then using) tactical nukes to deny the retaking of Crimea will be the next step, IMO. Which will be delayed as long as possible, because of the serious risk of an escalation into a strategic nuke exchange. There's no way that NATO, and Biden in particular, will allow the use of tactical nukes to go unanswered.
    If Russia resorts to tactical nuclear weapons, all bets are off the table for international response. Deliberate shelling of Ukrainian nuclear power plants resulting in a release of radiation will also draw a severe response.

    I agree that neither NATO, nor Biden will allow that to go unanswered.
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
    -William A. Ward



  6. #4801
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    This may be helpful:

    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  7. #4802
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Unlikely that any use of “tactcle nukes would be restricted to just a few. I’d expect things to go sideways quickly.

  8. #4803
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Andrew Craig-Bennett View Post
    This may be helpful:

    Ok, I'll bite - I'm assuming we're looking at fallout patterns?
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
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  9. #4804
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Lew Barrett View Post
    I take it from your reply that you believe Yeltsin’s successor, V.V.Putin, was chosen in Virginia? .
    Why do you pretend that actual historical facts never happened ??

    Chomsky refers to that as the "Memory Hole".

    And you conveniently ignored the Galvin facts as well . . .

  10. #4805
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Canoez View Post
    If Russia resorts to tactical nuclear weapons, all bets are off the table for international response. Deliberate shelling of Ukrainian nuclear power plants resulting in a release of radiation will also draw a severe response.

    I agree that neither NATO, nor Biden will allow that to go unanswered.
    Right from the start of this conflict, when it might have been avoided,

    many of you blew off the risk of nuclear war.

  11. #4806
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Why do you keep posting this questions while it's time to take your car and drive as quickly as you can to the Finnish border to escape from a camping mission in Ukraine?

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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by sandtown View Post
    Right from the start of this conflict, when it might have been avoided,

    many of you blew off the risk of nuclear war.
    On the contrary. The threat of nuclear war is the thing. You're the one blowing it off. Are we supposed to respond with -- nothing? That will be the F ing day. We tried appeasement last century, doesn't work.

    On to Moscow. A new eastern European AND western Asian order, oh yeah. I wish Howard Zinn were here to see it. He could add a chapter.
    If Russia wins, there will be no Ukraine; if Ukraine wins, there will be a new Russia.

    -- Dmytro Kuleba, Foreign Minister of Ukraine

  13. #4808
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by dutchpp View Post
    Why do you keep posting this questions while it's time to take your car and drive as quickly as you can to the Finnish border to escape from a camping mission in Ukraine?
    When you go camping, you bring some cans of beans. Even better, chili con carne. Sardines. Protein.
    If Russia wins, there will be no Ukraine; if Ukraine wins, there will be a new Russia.

    -- Dmytro Kuleba, Foreign Minister of Ukraine

  14. #4809
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    For all our Russian members, this site gives escape information to prevent a trip to Ukraine.
    https://holod.media/2022/09/21/mobilization-relocation/

  15. #4810
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by sandtown View Post
    Right from the start of this conflict, when it might have been avoided,

    many of you blew off the risk of nuclear war.

    No, that risk was always obvious. Also obvious was the risk of appeasement. Eventually with appeasement, like any blackmail, the coffers are empty and a decision must be made. Better to make that decision early before too much is handed over.

  16. #4811
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    The Financial Times estimates the number of men now serving Russia in Ukraine as between 150,000 and 190,000.

    Mobilising the Reserves adds around 300,000.

    Russia has been buying drones from Iran and artillery shells from North Korea. The two tank factories are said to have paused production.
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  17. #4812
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Andrew Craig-Bennett View Post
    The Financial Times estimates the number of men now serving Russia in Ukraine as between 150,000 and 190,000.

    Mobilising the Reserves adds around 300,000.

    Russia has been buying drones from Iran and artillery shells from North Korea. The two tank factories are said to have paused production.
    More troops just means more soft targets. The drones and shells are more concerning. The factories don’t surprise me. Drones, it appears, are the tanks of our time.

  18. #4813
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    I'm watching Niki Proshin film live in St. Petersburg. There are demonstrations protesting against the mobilization going on right now.

    Last edited by willmarsh3; 09-21-2022 at 12:02 PM.
    Will

  19. #4814
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Decourcy View Post
    No, that risk was always obvious. Also obvious was the risk of appeasement..
    "Appeasement" has been the go-to all purpose loony tunes rationale for aggressive war for the Blobistas who wanted war with the USSR, not to mention Iraq, Iran and so on . . .

    Personally, I helped in a very small way to elect a president to keep us out of nuclear war - not to see how close he could tip-toe right up to the edge of it.

    And note how the hyper-power is always demanding that it be appeased.

  20. #4815
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Andrew Craig-Bennett View Post
    I understand that the mobilisation and the plebiscites in the occupied parts of Ukraine are related because in Russia mobilisation is only permitted where there is a threat to Russia. Call the occupied territories “Russia” and the mobilisation is lawful?

    Yes.
    The same occurred to me. But he didn't take this step earlier, likely because it carries considerable risk.

  21. #4816
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by sandtown View Post
    "Appeasement" has been the go-to all purpose loony tunes rationale for aggressive war for the Blobistas who wanted war with the USSR, not to mention Iraq, Iran and so on . . .

    Personally, I helped in a very small way to elect a president to keep us out of nuclear war - not to see how close he could tip-toe right up to the edge of it.

    And note how the hyper-power is always demanding that it be appeased.
    i opposed the invasions of iraq and afghanistan. applauded the withdrawal from both conflicts.

    i also oppose the direct involvement of u.s. forces against russia in ukraine.

    but i am with the international community in denouncing the invasion of ukraine, and supporting ukraine with munitions and aid. and i will stand with their moral right to wage war against russia until the invading army is repelled back across the border.

    appeasement in this case would be asking the ukrainians to surrender to the aggressor.

    aggressive escalation would be our direct involvement, particularly invading russian territory and threatening russian sovereignty.

    i think we (the "west") have collectively taken the proper moral position.

  22. #4817
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    I don’t find “appeasement” - although it must be avoided - the most helpful notion, here. I think we have to go up a level, so to speak, because “appeasement” was itself a type of response to irredentism. What “appeasement” meant was the idea that some borders were in the wrong place and if those borders were adjusted then lasting peace could be obtained, because the dissatisfaction resulting from borders cutting through ethnic and linguistic groups could be appeased.

    What I do think is the correct principle in the post-WW2 world, the United Nations world, the post colonial world, is the one stated by the Kenyan Ambassador to the UN in his well known speech to the Security Council last February immediately before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

    https://youtu.be/jwDWxyLVBxk

    Irredentism and expansionism are both unacceptable in the post colonial world.Borders must not be re-drawn.
    “Regime change” is generally bad but irredentism is far worse and is never acceptable.

    We can take an example from Southeast Asia.

    The nations of “Indo-China” were more or less constantly at war with each other until the French decided to colonise Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia, the British grabbed Malaya, Burma and two sultanates in Borneo, with the Dutch grabbing the rest of what was then the East Indies and is now Indonesia and the Spanish bagged Luzon, the Visayas and Mindanao and called them King Philip’s Islands.

    The borders were frozen under colonial rule and the borders remained the same after the colonisers went away. There was a well known case of regime change when Vietnam invaded Cambodia and removed the Khmers Rouges, but this was seen as an occupation for the purpose of regime change and not as a permanent union. Even in Borneo the two sultanates that the British had grabbed, Sabah and Sarawak, stayed with Malaysia despite irredentist claims by both Indonesia and the Philippines.

    This example can be repeated in Africa. The borders don’t change.

    Once any nation decides to invade another, on grounds of irredentism or of expansion, the whole of the post war settlement is in danger and we shall have endless wars.

    We can safely assert that as a general principle, because WW2 itself was caused by irredentism. Hitler wanted the German speakers of the Sudetenland in Germany and he wanted to redraw the Polish borders.

    So that is why I think Russia must be stopped, not only because wars are had but because this sort of war is just too dangerous to the basis of international order.
    Last edited by Andrew Craig-Bennett; 09-21-2022 at 02:08 PM.
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  23. #4818
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by sandtown View Post
    Why do you pretend that actual historical facts never happened ??

    Chomsky refers to that as the "Memory Hole".

    And you conveniently ignored the Galvin facts as well . . .
    Please clarify. Do you believe the CIA installed Putin and kept him revved up since Yeltsin? Regarding Chomsky and Ukraine, I think this reflects my view.



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  24. #4819
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Lew Barrett View Post
    Please clarify. Do you believe the CIA installed Putin and kept him revved up since Yeltsin? s
    Of course not - please refrain from putting words on my keyboard.

    What the US clearly did do was greatly assist Yeltsin to remain in power . .

    And the US also was instrumental in the rushed privatization there which had disastrous consequences.

    Some of the US "advisors" were manifestly corrupt and enriched themselves at the expense of the Russian people.

    Do you deny that ?? Please clarify

  25. #4820
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    People are trying out their toys. How long till we see boston dynamics on the battle field?

    380B54DD-20FB-4F4B-AA37-892092C52F0A.jpg

  26. #4821
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    "Some of the US "advisors" were manifestly corrupt"

    That made me amused, surely no one is surprised?

  27. #4822
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by L.W. Baxter View Post
    i opposed the invasions of iraq and afghanistan. applauded the withdrawal from both conflicts.

    i also oppose the direct involvement of u.s. forces against russia in ukraine.

    but i am with the international community in denouncing the invasion of ukraine, and supporting ukraine with munitions and aid. and i will stand with their moral right to wage war against russia until the invading army is repelled back across the border.

    appeasement in this case would be asking the ukrainians to surrender to the aggressor.

    aggressive escalation would be our direct involvement, particularly invading russian territory and threatening russian sovereignty.

    i think we (the "west") have collectively taken the proper moral position.
    this.

  28. #4823
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Andrew Craig-Bennett View Post
    The Financial Times estimates the number of men now serving Russia in Ukraine as between 150,000 and 190,000.

    Mobilising the Reserves adds around 300,000.
    I read about "shadow mobilization" which is where they simply modify your enlistment contract from a term of years to "forever".
    If Russia wins, there will be no Ukraine; if Ukraine wins, there will be a new Russia.

    -- Dmytro Kuleba, Foreign Minister of Ukraine

  29. #4824
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by sandtown View Post
    Of course not - please refrain from putting words on my keyboard.

    What the US clearly did do was greatly assist Yeltsin to remain in power . .

    And the US also was instrumental in the rushed privatization there which had disastrous consequences.

    Some of the US "advisors" were manifestly corrupt and enriched themselves at the expense of the Russian people.

    Do you deny that ?? Please clarify
    No. we assumed responsibility and acted with hubris and naivety. We thought it would be easy to make them into a market driven economy, a pushover. Certainly you can trace back to the lost opportunity but probably the biggest mistake was getting involved in their process without having control or an understanding of how to achieve the end result. Or maybe getting involved in the first place. We learned about Yeltsin too late and when we came to that understanding, we didn't act on it. No doubt fortunes were made and lost. All the rest is on the Russians, and I'd add, nobody can rape Russia like a Russian.

    No matter our hubris or mistakes, Russians have to take responsibility for what Russia is today. Only they can fix it and that, I agree with Osborne, requires a complete turn of the wheel. Ukraine remains a disaster that is entirely on Putin and his cronies and explainers. We couldn't have this conversation there, acknowledge a rough reality that finds fault, and that says it all. Also on Putin as is the nuclear saber rattling, the bombing of apartments, hospitals, train stations and schools and starting an entirely optional war of aggression.
    Last edited by Lew Barrett; 09-21-2022 at 10:57 PM.
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  30. #4825
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by L.W. Baxter View Post
    i opposed the invasions of iraq and afghanistan. applauded the withdrawal from both conflicts.

    i also oppose the direct involvement of u.s. forces against russia in ukraine.

    but i am with the international community in denouncing the invasion of ukraine, and supporting ukraine with munitions and aid. and i will stand with their moral right to wage war against russia until the invading army is repelled back across the border.

    appeasement in this case would be asking the ukrainians to surrender to the aggressor.

    aggressive escalation would be our direct involvement, particularly invading russian territory and threatening russian sovereignty.

    i think we (the "west") have collectively taken the proper moral position.
    NATO has a rogue nation to de-horn, while gutting them at the same time.

  31. #4826
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    Default

    One of the larger problems with Russia is that she never really had a Renaissance or an Enlightenment. In very many ways, Russia, to this day, is a rather medieval culture.

    One of the things the Enlightenment brought was the evolution of the primacy of the individual.

    Hence the deference to the strongman at the top, with his vassals/lieutenants beneath him.
    You would not enjoy Nietzsche, sir. He is fundamentally unsound. — P.G. Wodehouse (Carry On, Jeeves)

  32. #4827
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Good news about the Azovsteel fighters being released. Pretty large prisoner swap.

  33. #4828
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    Default Ukraine

    Interesting. As of today, my Facebook feed is infested by posts from what appear to be Russian 'bots, trumpeting about superior Russian air power and the USA being scared of Russia.

    Vadim 68 must have reported me.
    You would not enjoy Nietzsche, sir. He is fundamentally unsound. — P.G. Wodehouse (Carry On, Jeeves)

  34. #4829
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Maybe not Vadim. We've one more suspect on the forum.
    /Erik

  35. #4830
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Nicholas Carey View Post
    Interesting. As of today, my Facebook feed is infested by posts from what appear to be Russian 'bots, trumpeting about superior Russian air power and the USA being scared of Russia.
    I'd be inclined to edit that.

    Pete
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