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Thread: Ukraine

  1. #4481
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Local officials in both St. Petersburg AND Moscow are calling on Putin to bail. Incredible. The first of significant cracks.
    Gerard>
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    Next election, vote against EVERY Republican, for EVERY office, at EVERY level. Be patriotic, save the country.

  2. #4482
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    I agree Lew, criticising any dictator is a dangerous game. Is change possible without the military being on side? Certainly the para-military police seem to have picked theirs and the justice system isn't.

  3. #4483
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    I hope not but we could be entering the most dangerous phase of this conflict with the retreat of Russian forces and he beginnings of open criticism of Putin from ‘respected’ quarters. Let’s hope there are some keeping a close eye on Putin in case he decides to project military power using tactical nukes or similar.

    Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication. Leonardo da Vinci.

    If war is the answer........... it must be a profoundly stupid question.

    "Freighters on the nod on the surface of the bay, One of these days we're going to sail away"
    Bruce Cockburn

  4. #4484
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Hold on to your hats…………...

  5. #4485
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    I friended Stefan. Good deal

  6. #4486
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by skuthorp View Post
    So continuing proxy wars on Russia's border may be the legacy of Vlad's ambitions? That should keep him occupied. I note an article in todays press here re Ukrainian staff at the occupied nuke plant going missing and two 'beaten to death'. Vlad's nuke options still concern me.
    I have always been a bit concerned if Vlad is backed into a corner, there are very few options for an ex-dictator. I wonder if the Russian military brass are acually in charge, or if Vlad is?
    My understanding is that unlike the US system, the Russian "nuclear football" merely issues a polite request from Putin to the military to go nuke something, but that does not constitute an order.
    The military Chiefs of staff can also initiate a strike without any input whatsoever from Putin. In short, the power rests with the joint chiefs, not the president.

    Pete
    The Ignore feature, lowering blood pressure since 1862. Ahhhhhhh.

  7. #4487
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    We're speculating regarding the chain of command for using nuclear weapons, sometimes based on reasonable fiction that's been reiterated many times until we accept it as truth. I expect the chain of command to be a closely held top secret, whatever that's worth for the US when Trump must have been briefed. Does anybody here actually know the truth regarding this, and is free to share it?
    /Erik

  8. #4488
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Well it may change, dictators are in charge until they aren't, and military officers and other ranks have families and nukes no doubt terrify them as well. I presume they swear loyalty to the State, not to the leader as a person. That is only a presumption and I might be wrong. As I said before it seems clear that the para-military police and the FSB are loyal to Vlad and may expect some blow back if he falls.

  9. #4489
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Returning to our muttons:

    Quote Originally Posted by skuthorp View Post
    The end game of this sorry affair has to be a political settlement, or a Russian win. Russia will not go away and if they are not successful the hurt and humiliation will be deep but Russia will still be there, surly and resentful. Possibly there is no end game, just an armistice, formal or not.
    I think there is a principle here and it is the one stated by the Kenyan Ambassador to the UN on the day of the RussiN invasion of Ukraine - irredentism is a 19th century concept which the 21st century cannot entertain.
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  10. #4490
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Did you notice, that the graph, you posted at #4487 about shipping hubs is defining and measuring these hubs only by shipping containers, which are not used to ship any oil or gas.

    Edit: this is meant as answer to vadim #4491
    Gruß, Günter

  11. #4491
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Thank you, Günter.
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  12. #4492
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Andrew Craig-Bennett View Post
    Returning to our muttons:



    I think there is a principle here and it is the one stated by the Kenyan Ambassador to the UN on the day of the RussiN invasion of Ukraine - irredentism is a 19th century concept which the 21st century cannot entertain.
    Heh, I think that apart from that the First People Australia would find that difficult to swallow!
    Last edited by skuthorp; 09-11-2022 at 03:32 PM.

  13. #4493
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by heimfried View Post
    Did you notice, that the graph, you posted at #4487 about shipping hubs is defining and measuring these hubs only by shipping containers, which are not used to ship any oil or gas.

    Edit: this is meant as answer to vadim #4491
    Did you not notice the Port of Hamburg on that list? Port of Hamburg | Terminals - Handling facilities to meet every need (hafen-hamburg.de)

  14. #4494
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    I'm going to reclaim this thread on the grounds that I was an early coloniser.

    The advances along the northern front are inspiring. Looking at a possible prisoner tally of 10,000 Russian troops. Along with commensurate hardware and possibly even greater boon in artillery ammo.

    if the Russians had been able to withdraw to fight another day I'd be less energised, but they're not. Those who can are literally running away and leaving hardware behind. Those who can't run are stuffed. It's looking like a rout but let's not jinx it.
    It's all fun and games until Darth Vader comes.

  15. #4495
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by skuthorp View Post
    Heh, I think that apart ftom the First People Australia would find that difficult to swallow!
    Please explain.

    What the Ambassador said was that if the absurd colonial boundaries are not respected chaos will ensue, so African nations generally do respect them, even where they divide ethnic groups.

    The only African irredentist wars that come to my mind are the Ogaden War and Gaddafi’s invasion of Chad.
    Last edited by Andrew Craig-Bennett; 09-11-2022 at 08:17 AM.
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  16. #4496
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    3000 square km of territory taken back by Ukraine. Nice work!
    Will

  17. #4497
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Vadim 68 View Post
    ..
    I suppose that telling a physician or an attorney that they don’t know their work is useful, too.
    "The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails."
    -William A. Ward



  18. #4498
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Vadim 68 View Post
    . . . .
    Do you actually know what ACB did for all of his working life?
    No? I thought not.
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

    The power of the web: Anyone can post anything on the web
    The weakness of the web: Anyone can post anything on the web.

  19. #4499
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Peerie Maa View Post
    ...........
    Irrelevent. Still wrong.

    Europe Still Guzzling Russian Oil With Ban Just Months Away - Bloomberg

    Russian gas flows to EU via Ukraine remain stable, Nord Stream stays shut | Reuters

    Do you wish to dispute reality also?

  20. #4500
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Vadim 68 View Post
    . . . .
    Which has got sod all to do with the cowflop that you posted above.
    It really is quite difficult to build an ugly wooden boat.

    The power of the web: Anyone can post anything on the web
    The weakness of the web: Anyone can post anything on the web.

  21. #4501
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  22. #4502
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Though I have nothing of value to contribute, I continue to follow this thread with interest. Thanks to ACB and others for keeping it going.

  23. #4503
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Loudon View Post
    Though I have nothing of value to contribute, I continue to follow this thread with interest. Thanks to ACB and others for keeping it going.
    Yes,me too, thanks!

  24. #4504
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Is it noteworthy? Do the Ukrainian soldiers we see these days look really well kitted out. Uniform, no hodge podge of left over gear. Slightly odd that they carry AK's but otherwise they look like a western military.

    If I was a Russian soldier in my 1960's tank, having to steal food, I'd be pretty demoralised by meeting these guys who you are expected to walk all over, turn up in the latest Kevlar and gore-tex sporting night vision and in-date rations.
    Last edited by gypsie; 09-11-2022 at 07:09 PM.
    It's all fun and games until Darth Vader comes.

  25. #4505
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    I follow this thread daily too.
    I once thought I was wrong, but I was wrong, I wasn't wrong.

  26. #4506
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    Default

    Sounds like a route, not a retreat under fire.

    From WaPo:

    https://apple.news/AEv46NWBsR-u2ylIItOlLdw

    Amid Ukraine’s startling gains, liberated villages describe Russian troops dropping rifles and fleeing

    ZALIZNYCHNE, Ukraine -- In the end, the Russians fled any way they could on Friday, on stolen bicycles, disguised as locals. Hours after Ukrainian soldiers poured into the area, hundreds of Russian soldiers encamped in this village were gone, many after their units abandoned them, leaving behind stunned residents to face the ruins of 28 weeks of occupation
    .
    "They just dropped rifles on the ground," Olena Matvienko said Sunday as she stood, still disoriented, in a village littered with ammo crates and torched vehicles, including a Russian tank loaded on a flatbed. The first investigators from Kharkiv had just pulled in to collect the bodies of civilians shot by Russians, some that have been lying exposed for months.
    .
    .
    .
    The residents were scared of the Russians, several village residents said. But they almost pitied them in their scramble to escape the recent Ukrainian onslaught.

    Half of the soldiers fled in their vehicles in the first hours of the offensive, they said. Those stranded grew desperate. Some residents overheard their radio pleas to unit commanders for someone to come get them.

    "They said, 'You’re on your own,' " Matvienko recounted. "They came into our houses to take clothes so the drones wouldn’t see them in uniforms. They took our bicycles. Two of them pointed guns at my ex-husband until he handed them his car keys."

    [continued]
    You would not enjoy Nietzsche, sir. He is fundamentally unsound. — P.G. Wodehouse (Carry On, Jeeves)

  27. #4507
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Same article the reference to kerfews and fear about winter cold.

    Things might get very hard for people under Russian control when the nights get longer.
    I wonder how the Russians expect to manage that using only kids with guns.

    “They were not monsters, they were kids,” said Matvienko, who once asked Russian troops to move the tank they parked in front of her house. “I asked what they wanted from us and they said, ‘We can either be here or we can be in jail.’ ”
    The Russians’ biggest rule for residents was to get inside by 6 p.m. and stay there, quiet and in the dark, several said. Violating that order could be fatal, as two men on the street learned early on. The friends were drinking and had a light on, said Maria Grygorova, who lives in the attached house next door. The next morning she found them on the floor.
    Kozinska hasn’t seen her daughter since February — even though she lives 12 miles away — but had just received word that she will come to pick her up as soon as officials open access to the village, just as the weather turns cold.
    “I have been so scared about winter,” said the woman with lung problems, clutching a just-distributed paper giving her a number to call if she finds a land mine. “We have no power and it’s hard for me to collect firewood.”
    It's all fun and games until Darth Vader comes.

  28. #4508
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  29. #4509
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Andrew Craig-Bennett View Post
    Suddenly its like a game of chess.
    A Ukrainian Grand Master playing a Russian enthusiast.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin risks making a common but deadly mistake by waiting too long to order reinforcements to the Luhansk line, thereby compromising the defense of Kherson or ending offensive operations around Bakhmut and Donetsk City without getting troops into position to defend against continuing Ukrainian attacks in Luhansk in time. The Ukrainian campaign appears intended to present Putin with precisely such a dilemma and to benefit from almost any decision he makes.
    It's all fun and games until Darth Vader comes.

  30. #4510
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    wow - that's the whole northern zone around Kharkiv.

    Attachment 118940
    It's all fun and games until Darth Vader comes.

  31. #4511
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by gypsie View Post
    Suddenly its like a game of chess.
    A Ukrainian Grand Master playing a Russian enthusiast.
    The quality of the coaching comes into it, perhaps. I suspect that there has been a fair bit of war gaming. And we are seeing the new Ukrainian Army; modern helmets and body armour, modern boots and uniforms, and I suspect modern radios and in date ration packs.
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  32. #4512
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Perun on the “energy war”:

    https://youtu.be/ce5TR-qWCk4

    I hadn’t known that Perun was the Slavic God of Thunder, justice, etc.
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  33. #4513
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Two columns by Tom Cooper:

    https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/uk...2-4db2619d6fe1

    https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/uk...w-8f87459fb47e

    I don’t think this thread is for playing “armchair general”; I and some others have tried to post links to information that others might find interesting and which seem reasonably reliable.

    At the moment for very obvious reasons neither Russia nor Ukraine are wanting to say too much about what is going on at the front or even where the front is, so that makes armchair generalship difficult, but we can always fall back on armchair Kremlinology.

    I think that Tom Cooper’s guess might be reasonable. Assuming that the Russians are not in a position to counter attack in the near future, then I think Mr Putin is confronted by the choice of double or quit. Double might mean mobilisation, which could be justified by claims that Russia is really fighting NATO nogw.
    Last edited by Andrew Craig-Bennett; 09-12-2022 at 07:51 AM.
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  34. #4514
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Peerie Maa View Post
    ..............
    You are in no position to lecture anyone. You yourself made disparaging ,negative mocking comments about an expert in his field just because you did not agree with him.

    I am reminded of the words in a song.........." you say it best, when you say nothing at all"

  35. #4515
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

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