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Thread: Ukraine

  1. #4446
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    the way this war has gone gives me an odd feeling, i do believe it's hope, for all kinds of impending struggles.

    this morning, i am sorry for the suffering and thankful for the fighting spirit of the ukranian people. may that spirit of victory against all odds grow and spread.

  2. #4447
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Looks like Ukraine has been studying the campaigns of George Henry Thomas, the Rock of Chickamauga and the Sledge of Nashville.

  3. #4448
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Ukrainians are said to already have liberated Izyum. If the morning proves it true, this is astounding. If they are 'merely' close to it, the events are still impressive and strengthen hopes for brighter future.
    WszystekPoTrochu's signature available only for premium forum users.

  4. #4449
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Denys says it's true- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=422RLvK0r4U Excellent. JayInOz

  5. #4450
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    @ LW Baxter: About optimism, I know how you feel. It lifts the heart to see how the Ukrainians have endured through all and more than just bloodied the nose of the invader. Their success brightens the day.
    One of the most enduring qualities of an old wooden boat is the smell it imparts to your clothing.

  6. #4451
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Gives the Ukranians a very long front to defend. But then they are not defending are they?

  7. #4452
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    If the Ukrainian Armed Forces can secure the two railway junctions that they seem to be aiming for, I think that will allow them not only to cut those but to put their HIMARS systems in range of the rest of the rail routes supplying the Russian forces in the South apart from those from Crimea.
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  8. #4453
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    My understanding from Denys video is that Ukraine is in Kupiansk, which means that they've cut off the supply to about 20000 Russian soldiers. Having done that they can divide them and handle them at leasure as winter comes, if the offensive falters.
    /Erik

  9. #4454
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    The end game of this sorry affair has to be a political settlement, or a Russian win. Russia will not go away and if they are not successful the hurt and humiliation will be deep but Russia will still be there, surly and resentful. Possibly there is no end game, just an armistice, formal or not.

  10. #4455
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    David Frum tweets that it's too big a mouthful to chant as a slogan, but "this is what collective security looks like."
    If I use the word "God," I sure don't mean an old man in the sky who just loves the occasional goat sacrifice. - Anne Lamott

  11. #4456
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by skuthorp View Post
    The end game of this sorry affair has to be a political settlement, or a Russian win. Russia will not go away and if they are not successful the hurt and humiliation will be deep but Russia will still be there, surly and resentful. Possibly there is no end game, just an armistice, formal or not.
    Russia is a nation state, not a person.

    I really, really, disagree with your post quoted above.
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  12. #4457
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Russia will be a worse threat if the see that they can attack their neighbours and find an upside to it. They must not win, or some other nearby nation will be next. The solition to this mess is spelled NATO.
    /Erik

  13. #4458
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    From the WaPo just now:

    “Russia’s defense ministry on Saturday admitted its forces had retreated from key towns in northeastern Ukraine after a stunning advance by Ukrainian troops.
The Defense Ministry said it had pulled forces out of the village of Balakliya and the strategically crucial city of Izyum in the Kharkiv region, after a decision to “regroup” and transfer them to Donetsk in the south.”
The retreat represents one of the biggest setbacks for Russia since President Vladimir V. Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February.
“In order to achieve the goals of the special military operation, a decision was made to regroup troops in the areas of Balakliya and Izyum in order to build up efforts in the Donetsk direction,” the Russian military statement said.
Although Russian officials sought to spin the developments — saying “a powerful fire was inflicted on the enemy using aviation, missile troops and artillery” as they withdrew — it was clear their troops were retreating to avoid being encircled. Ukrainian officials said the Russians had left behind equipment and ammunition.
Earlier, the commander leading Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, said Ukraine had full control of Balakliya and also controlled part of Kupyansk, an important strategic rail hub seen as crucial to Russia’s war effort in the region.”

    My son comments:

    If the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to advance at their present rate, they will be in Moscow on the 14th of October.
    Last edited by Andrew Craig-Bennett; 09-10-2022 at 10:18 AM.
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  14. #4459
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    I would not be surprised if Europe gets no energy all winter as a lesson.

  15. #4460
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by bluedog225 View Post
    I would not be surprised if Europe gets no energy all winter as a lesson.
    No gas or oil from Russia.

    That is what Russia is doing now. But Russia isn’t the only source of methane and crude oil.
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  16. #4461
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Yeah. I haven’t forgotten that there are other options. And still financing genocide was the pragmatic choice.

  17. #4462
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by bluedog225 View Post
    Yeah. I havenít forgotten that there are other options. And still financing genocide was the pragmatic choice.

    Europe is still buying Russian oil and gas, most of which is coming via a hub in China......talk about handing your adversaries your wealth.

  18. #4463
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Vadim 68 View Post
    Europe is still buying Russian oil and gas, most of which is coming via a hub in China......talk about handing your adversaries your wealth.
    What are you proposing to spend it on?

  19. #4464
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Reddit says Ukraine has taken Donetsk airport, after Russia pulled out 15000 troops from the area. Not 100% confirmed, but lots of social media chitchat from both sides of the divide all singing off the same song sheet. Wow.

    Pete
    The Ignore feature, lowering blood pressure since 1862. Ahhhhhhh.

  20. #4465
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Vadim 68 View Post
    Europe is still buying Russian oil and gas, most of which is coming via a hub in China......talk about handing your adversaries your wealth.
    Please explain. What “hub in China”? How does this work?
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  21. #4466
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Vadim 68 View Post
    Europe is still buying Russian oil and gas, most of which is coming via a hub in China......talk about handing your adversaries your wealth.
    Gas yes, not so sure about oil. Google turned up this, I didn't spend a lot of time on it - if you have something better, please share.
    https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Int...th-LNG-resales

    Anything that China and India does buy is at a discount, I read somewhere that Russia is only managing to break even on the cost of production at that price.
    Running oil and gas infrastructure is phenomenally labour, equipment, and dollars intensive - the few work trips I've done to both on and offshore installations (gulf of Mexico, Sumatra, Sarawak) really opened my eyes to what it takes to get a litre of fuel out of the ground.

    Pete
    The Ignore feature, lowering blood pressure since 1862. Ahhhhhhh.

  22. #4467
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Andrew Craig-Bennett View Post
    Russia is a nation state, not a person.

    I really, really, disagree with your post quoted above.
    Why so Andrew? The Russian population seems to favour strong man government, Hasn't changed since the Czars really. A change of top man is likely the only solution to the present war, long term that's likely no solution.

  23. #4468
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by skuthorp View Post
    Why so Andrew? The Russian population seems to favour strong man government, Hasn't changed since the Czars really. A change of top man is likely the only solution to the present war, long term that's likely no solution.
    I don't think the average Russian has really had that much choice when it comes to government.
    without freedom of speech, we wouldn't know who the idiots are.

  24. #4469
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    These successes speak to agile tactical response at the field officer and even noncom level. This is, at least from our perspective, a surprise breakthrough at a place where fewer forces were expected to be concentrated. That means aggressive and well chosen response at the small unit level. There will be many citations and medals coming for relatively junior officers and noncoms. Remarkable.

    Jeff, I also disagree with your response. Even allowing that negotiations were the best solution, and I don’t think that’s so, Ukraine has shown they will not accept any proposal Putin is prepared to offer. They want their country back and are willing to pay the price. They’re clear about that.
    One of the most enduring qualities of an old wooden boat is the smell it imparts to your clothing.

  25. #4470
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by epoxyboy View Post
    Gas yes, not so sure about oil. Google turned up this, I didn't spend a lot of time on it - if you have something better, please share.
    https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Int...th-LNG-resales

    Anything that China and India does buy is at a discount, I read somewhere that Russia is only managing to break even on the cost of production at that price.
    Running oil and gas infrastructure is phenomenally labour, equipment, and dollars intensive - the few work trips I've done to both on and offshore installations (gulf of Mexico, Sumatra, Sarawak) really opened my eyes to what it takes to get a litre of fuel out of the ground.

    Pete
    Well, that is simple enough; China imports a lot of LNG from Qatar. Gas is usually sold on a “take or pay” basis. China needs less but still has to buy gas from Qatar so China is selling surplus cargoes of gas to Europe. No mystery and no “hub”, whatever that is. Jolly good.
    Last edited by Andrew Craig-Bennett; 09-10-2022 at 05:06 PM.
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  26. #4471
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    "Jeff, I also disagree with your response. Even allowing that negotiations were the best solution, and I don’t think that’s so, Ukraine has shown they will not accept any proposal Putin is prepared to offer. They want their country back and are willing to pay the price. They’re clear about that."

    So Ukraine won't accept a negotiated solution unless they get their whole country, including Crimea, back. And neither could any Russian leader, democratically elected or otherwise because of loss of national face?
    That's going to be a very very long war. Or am I looking at this too simply?

  27. #4472
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Just watching some Russians talking about Gorbachev. He was a traitor who should have been shot, where as Putin is the man. Strange logic that everything is bad because of Gorbachev, even though Putin has been in charge for 25 years.
    Putin has enormous influence over any political debate, and hiss successor will inherit it. It will require something huge inside Russia to change that. Complete economic collapse or something. Russia could very well be a brooding injured bear at the Ukrainian border, for quite a while yet.

    But these successes are looking great. Go Ukraine.
    It's all fun and games until Darth Vader comes.

  28. #4473
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Last edited by skuthorp; 09-10-2022 at 05:09 PM.

  29. #4474
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    I suspect that in Russia you will get all sorts of opinions, but that people in the countryside, less educated people and older people will tend to put more weight on what they learn from the television, having fewer sources of information.

    People who were queuing for Gorbachev’s funeral in Moscow were interviewed by the BBC and they saw things very differently indeed; for them Gorbachev gave them a glimpse of freedom and Putin snatched it away.

    If there is one lesson that we ought to have learned it is that appeasement is not a good idea.

    Let the Ukrainians chase the Russians back to Russia.

    Belarus has a tiny Army and a deeply unpopular President. Belarussians want to be like Ukrainians. The largest group of foreigners fighting for Ukraine are Belarussians. Georgia has unfinished business with Russia… and so on.
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  30. #4475
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    So continuing proxy wars on Russia's border may be the legacy of Vlad's ambitions? That should keep him occupied. I note an article in todays press here re Ukrainian staff at the occupied nuke plant going missing and two 'beaten to death'. Vlad's nuke options still concern me.
    I have always been a bit concerned if Vlad is backed into a corner, there are very few options for an ex-dictator. I wonder if the Russian military brass are acually in charge, or if Vlad is?

  31. #4476
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by skuthorp View Post
    Why so Andrew? The Russian population seems to favour strong man government, Hasn't changed since the Czars really. A change of top man is likely the only solution to the present war, long term that's likely no solution.
    Not all Russians are so easily fooled.

    What does Russia have to offer?
    One of the most enduring qualities of an old wooden boat is the smell it imparts to your clothing.

  32. #4477
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Did not seem so hopeful if you ask me, and very nervous and guarded.

    Related re nukes. Beau on donald and hijacked dpocuments
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7Usf39ngps

  33. #4478
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    The young offer hope. Not all, but many. Remember they know they live in a place where than can be harmed in many ways for critical comments played openly on western media. You might watch a few 1420 videos to see just how fearful and confused some Russians are while others clearly see what their corrupted government is up to. You can’t fool all the people all the time. Young Russians see where they live and what their politic is up to. Where young Russians are generally unwilling to fight for their country, young Ukrainians are willing to fight for theirs. Yes it’s tragic but also inspiring and incredibly clear. I understand pacifism but understand it far better when it is a policy associated with a cause unworthy of the sacrifice. Ukraine is prepared for the sacrifice and Russia is not. That’s what is hopeful in this situation.

    Watch 1420 on You Tube. Just that it exists should give you pause to think.
    One of the most enduring qualities of an old wooden boat is the smell it imparts to your clothing.

  34. #4479
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    There is plenty of bitching by Ukrainian soldiers on video.

    But I have always had a rule with ships’ crews - “As long as they are bitching, it’s fine. It’s when they go quiet that you need to worry!”
    IMAGINES VEL NON FUERINT

  35. #4480
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    Default Ukraine

    Joke that showed up in my FB feed.

    Q: What do you call a Russian armor battalion that's just rotated home from Ukraine?

    A: An infantry platoon.
    You would not enjoy Nietzsche, sir. He is fundamentally unsound. ó P.G. Wodehouse (Carry On, Jeeves)

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